I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

The coffin's picked out:

There were moments when Bush seemed distracted, off his game, or barely able to conceal his unhappiness. At one point, a little girl asked, in a sweet child's voice, "What's your favorite book?"

""My favorite book?" Bush said. "Art of the Deal."

"It's not the best idea to respond to a child's innocent question with a cynical, adult answer. So Bush went on to address her question, but he seemed at a loss to name a favorite book.

""Favorite book," he repeated, stalling for time. "I love reading. The last book I read is actually the Jon Meacham book on my dad, which I loved … I really enjoyed that book, I recommend that one. But I like reading. I like reading a lot. I hope you do, too."

"In the future, if there is one, Bush should probably have a popular, stock answer at hand

Lol

so weird that that guy and W are brothers

I can imagine how growing up with W. as an older brother might bring give one a tendency to mordant sarcasm.

I wonder how much of an irredeemable moron Marvin must be to be the lone Bush son they keep out of the public eye

Do neil or dorothy do all that much?

Did Poppy?

Do neil or dorothy do all that much?

Dorothy's not a son, and Neil had a very public flameout with the S&L scandal

marvin bush is really not very accomplished by bush standards, is he? googling him turns up a very sparse wikipedia page and a host of 9/11 conspiracy websites

Help us, George P. Bushobi, you're our only hope.

i miss bald insane britney spears

we still have bald insane bernie sanders

This primary system is so painfully long. Of course every candidate is going to end up looking pretty bad after months and months and months of exposure.

Help us, George P. Bushobi, you're our only hope.

can I just
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9a/George_P._Bush_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg/220px-George_P._Bush_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg

that dude's teeth are made of a futuristic material unknown to current science

Loserium

acc to 538 all nevada polling is a crapshoot and we have no idea who is likely to win tmmrw

paying attention to 538 predictions:

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-gell-mann-amnesia-effect-is-as-follows-you

Maybe Republicans would be cool with Obama if he cleared more brush.
― living colour me badd english beat happening (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, February 19, 2016 3:04 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

let's leave manscaping out of this
― its subtle brume (DJP), Friday, February 19, 2016 3:08 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Omg

xp of all the places that would be appropriate a 538 post about the limitations of polling is surely not one

also michael crichton was a climate change denialist so maybe his take on expertise heuristics is a bit flawed

The climate change had torn him open. His guts had fallen out.

Hey DC did you finish your scrivenerings?

538 is bad

they have a worse record than UK-based sports betting markets at predicting everything except the US presidential elections where they have the same record as the betting markets.

every time they say something about an area i would know enough about to call bullshit on, it's obviously bullshit (or conventional wisdom)

nate silver looks weird

538 is not the worst though, it's true

this is the order to put the predictors in imo

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-19/who-will-win-south-carolina-and-nevada-here-are-seven-credible-predictions

538 is bad

they have a worse record than UK-based sports betting markets at predicting everything except the US presidential elections where they have the same record as the betting markets.

every time they say something about an area i would know enough about to call bullshit on, it's obviously bullshit (or conventional wisdom)

nate silver looks weird

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, February 19, 2016 9:11 PM (14 minutes ago)

interesting. is there data for this in the pre-538 days? i imagine these days the betting lines are influenced to no insignificant degree by 538 itself, and sites like it

true, post-2012 538 definitely distorts (and perhaps even dominates) the US politics betting markets

it's v difficult to say to what extent though, since the US politics markets did not really become ... liquid? ... until 2012ish too

i guess i take back my gell mann amnesia point though, since i trust https://twitter.com/DavMicRot predictions more than silver's, and rothschild's punditry seems nuts to me as a non-american as soon as he strays beyond data-based predictions

he's the guy dressed like he does close up magic at parties in this piece http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/something-better-than-polls-for-political-predictions-you-bet/

seems rude that gell mann got saddled with that

ironically the quark and the jaguar (which is about something other than his specialty) was apparently such garbage that his particle physics got the scrutinized way more for the rest of his career

collardio, I did, thank you! Pulled my first all-nighter in several years and I'm feeling it now but the damn thing's done. Wasn't quite what it could have been, but I balanced my time pretty lopsidedly over the past couple weeks. So it goes.

man do I loathe this guy: https://humanizingthevacuum.wordpress.com/2015/04/14/blood-inheritance-and-privilege-marco-rubios-problem-and-ours/

Marco Rubio knew what his parents suffered and how the United States palliated the suffering

alfred, what can i read about the relationship between the federal govt and the US cuban community?

See: the Cuban Adjustment Act

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Adjustment_Act

was the primary benefit immigration preferences?

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/trump-hails-torture-mass-killings-pigs-blood-ammo-sc

just so

wow, this fascist motherfucker.

i mean i have been very hesitant to apply that label here but this revelry in fantasy torture of the other, thinking of the meanest most vile ways you could kill and humiliate. really disturbing.

nothing to add but "yes"

i kinda hope trump gets the nom so he can be dragged and humiliated for several months before he loses by double digits but that would be too kind, so i hope he evaporates

South Carolina Lieutenant Governor Henry McMaster, Trump’s most prominent endorser in the state, set the tone for the event before Trump came on.

“How many of you feel real safe right now?”

“Nooooooooo!” the audience droned in response.

“We’re gonna change that,” he replied.

chilling

Why would anyone feel safe sitting in the middle of a bloodthirsty mob?

the audience were droned in response

Why are people in south carolina so concerned with terrorists? They are an unlikely target.

I never really understood that

hint: terrorism fears have little to do with actual legit terror threats

(in most of america, i should say)

xps to Karl yeah that stood out to me as well

People who have carefully and deliberately sealed themselves off from people who don't look/talk/think as they do = often the people most obsessed with thoughts of the Scary Other who wants to come and steal their precious bodily fluids