I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

paying attention to 538 predictions:

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/65213-briefly-stated-the-gell-mann-amnesia-effect-is-as-follows-you

Maybe Republicans would be cool with Obama if he cleared more brush.
― living colour me badd english beat happening (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, February 19, 2016 3:04 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

let's leave manscaping out of this
― its subtle brume (DJP), Friday, February 19, 2016 3:08 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Omg

xp of all the places that would be appropriate a 538 post about the limitations of polling is surely not one

also michael crichton was a climate change denialist so maybe his take on expertise heuristics is a bit flawed

The climate change had torn him open. His guts had fallen out.

Hey DC did you finish your scrivenerings?

538 is bad

they have a worse record than UK-based sports betting markets at predicting everything except the US presidential elections where they have the same record as the betting markets.

every time they say something about an area i would know enough about to call bullshit on, it's obviously bullshit (or conventional wisdom)

nate silver looks weird

538 is not the worst though, it's true

this is the order to put the predictors in imo

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-19/who-will-win-south-carolina-and-nevada-here-are-seven-credible-predictions

538 is bad

they have a worse record than UK-based sports betting markets at predicting everything except the US presidential elections where they have the same record as the betting markets.

every time they say something about an area i would know enough about to call bullshit on, it's obviously bullshit (or conventional wisdom)

nate silver looks weird

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, February 19, 2016 9:11 PM (14 minutes ago)

interesting. is there data for this in the pre-538 days? i imagine these days the betting lines are influenced to no insignificant degree by 538 itself, and sites like it

true, post-2012 538 definitely distorts (and perhaps even dominates) the US politics betting markets

it's v difficult to say to what extent though, since the US politics markets did not really become ... liquid? ... until 2012ish too

i guess i take back my gell mann amnesia point though, since i trust https://twitter.com/DavMicRot predictions more than silver's, and rothschild's punditry seems nuts to me as a non-american as soon as he strays beyond data-based predictions

he's the guy dressed like he does close up magic at parties in this piece http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/something-better-than-polls-for-political-predictions-you-bet/

seems rude that gell mann got saddled with that

ironically the quark and the jaguar (which is about something other than his specialty) was apparently such garbage that his particle physics got the scrutinized way more for the rest of his career

collardio, I did, thank you! Pulled my first all-nighter in several years and I'm feeling it now but the damn thing's done. Wasn't quite what it could have been, but I balanced my time pretty lopsidedly over the past couple weeks. So it goes.

man do I loathe this guy: https://humanizingthevacuum.wordpress.com/2015/04/14/blood-inheritance-and-privilege-marco-rubios-problem-and-ours/

Marco Rubio knew what his parents suffered and how the United States palliated the suffering

alfred, what can i read about the relationship between the federal govt and the US cuban community?

See: the Cuban Adjustment Act

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Adjustment_Act

was the primary benefit immigration preferences?

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/trump-hails-torture-mass-killings-pigs-blood-ammo-sc

just so

wow, this fascist motherfucker.

i mean i have been very hesitant to apply that label here but this revelry in fantasy torture of the other, thinking of the meanest most vile ways you could kill and humiliate. really disturbing.

nothing to add but "yes"

i kinda hope trump gets the nom so he can be dragged and humiliated for several months before he loses by double digits but that would be too kind, so i hope he evaporates

South Carolina Lieutenant Governor Henry McMaster, Trump’s most prominent endorser in the state, set the tone for the event before Trump came on.

“How many of you feel real safe right now?”

“Nooooooooo!” the audience droned in response.

“We’re gonna change that,” he replied.

chilling

Why would anyone feel safe sitting in the middle of a bloodthirsty mob?

the audience were droned in response

Why are people in south carolina so concerned with terrorists? They are an unlikely target.

I never really understood that

hint: terrorism fears have little to do with actual legit terror threats

(in most of america, i should say)

xps to Karl yeah that stood out to me as well

People who have carefully and deliberately sealed themselves off from people who don't look/talk/think as they do = often the people most obsessed with thoughts of the Scary Other who wants to come and steal their precious bodily fluids

Board description

I like 538 in this primary season. I don't think anyone has really done what they are trying to do before, and they themselves definitely hasn't ('wizkid' Harry Enten was 19 last time there was a dem primary). It really seems like they are figuring things out in real time, for instance they've been talking about polling being bad in Nevada for a while, but this article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-nevada-polls-are-bad/ has a lot more info than before. I think they've become smarter. It's kinda fun to follow them as they figure these things out, plus they're mostly honest that they don't 100% know what they're doing.

Heard Hannity going on about this yesterday:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/19/bernie-sanders-s-brother-he-backs-class-warfare-bill-clinton-was-worse-than-bush.html

I assumed he was creatively paraphrasing about the rapist line, but I guess not. One-day story--can't see Clinton wanting to bring it up. The really important part: Larry Sanders!

538 is emphatically, dramatically worse this time around. I blame ESPN, the format/length/density of the posts, and especially Harry Enten. Most of the commentary is just ordinary horserace punditry about narrative and personal hunches, with each article getting just a dash of dats, which is treated with less complexity, I would love to switch to something better; at this point, I'm reading them out of habit, and because their poll tracker stuff runs a lot cleaner than RCP's.

A literal Bernie bro xp

538 is emphatically, dramatically worse this time around.

yeah i think this is true too

bernie's relationship with his brother is super cute! also bernie's brother pretty much otm

well until he gets to talking about how bernie's gonna muscle everything through congress at least

"was the primary benefit immigration preferences?"

yes, it's my understanding that it's pretty easy for Cubans to immigrate into the US, as opposed to those from, well, anywhere else.

"People who have carefully and deliberately sealed themselves off from people who don't look/talk/think as they do = often the people most obsessed with thoughts of the Scary Other who wants to come and steal their precious bodily fluids"

no shit, I have family in New Mexico backwaters who are obsessed with evil Muslims.

It may seem obvious to some but it really can't be repeated enough. The most racist/xenophobic utterances I've ever heard were in place where it was entirely possible that the speaker had never directly interacted with someone who wasn't white.

http://www.occupydemocrats.com/2016/02/18/southern-poverty-law-center-republican-party-is-now-a-hate-group-2/

We live in a bilingual demiurban neighborhood, on a busy street, eight feet from neighbors on either side. There's a bus stop in front of the house, we're a few minutes' walk from the subway, and we're six miles from a decently crime-ridden city, and nothing even remotely unpleasant has happened to me in 40 years.

My in-laws live hours from anything, up a quarter-mile of driveway, surrounded by not much more than cows and other houses inhabited by people exactly like them - that is, white Christian middle-aged NRA life members. All absolutely CERTAIN that their right to protect themselves with firearms is both absolute and DIRELY THREATENED. Because WHAT IF SOMEBODY BROKE INTO THE HOUSE? Especially SOMEONE BROWN?

I refrain from asking who's going to go out to the middle of nowhere and commando-crawl up their long-ass driveway in the dead of night to steal... what, exactly? Their shelves-ful of Precious Moments figurines?

silly, they want to invade the suburbs to put their dark penises in virgin white holes. everyone knows this.

My in-laws live hours from anything, up a quarter-mile of driveway, surrounded by not much more than cows and other houses inhabited by people exactly like them - that is, white Christian middle-aged NRA life members.

I'd be scared, true.

Seven percent of the votes are in. Clinton 50.0% Sanders 49.6% so far....

I started catching up on the Feb 13 GOP debate. The disturbing realization began to dawn on me that, at times, Trump might actually be the most sensible Republican candidate.