I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

xps to Karl yeah that stood out to me as well

People who have carefully and deliberately sealed themselves off from people who don't look/talk/think as they do = often the people most obsessed with thoughts of the Scary Other who wants to come and steal their precious bodily fluids

Board description

I like 538 in this primary season. I don't think anyone has really done what they are trying to do before, and they themselves definitely hasn't ('wizkid' Harry Enten was 19 last time there was a dem primary). It really seems like they are figuring things out in real time, for instance they've been talking about polling being bad in Nevada for a while, but this article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-nevada-polls-are-bad/ has a lot more info than before. I think they've become smarter. It's kinda fun to follow them as they figure these things out, plus they're mostly honest that they don't 100% know what they're doing.

Heard Hannity going on about this yesterday:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/19/bernie-sanders-s-brother-he-backs-class-warfare-bill-clinton-was-worse-than-bush.html

I assumed he was creatively paraphrasing about the rapist line, but I guess not. One-day story--can't see Clinton wanting to bring it up. The really important part: Larry Sanders!

538 is emphatically, dramatically worse this time around. I blame ESPN, the format/length/density of the posts, and especially Harry Enten. Most of the commentary is just ordinary horserace punditry about narrative and personal hunches, with each article getting just a dash of dats, which is treated with less complexity, I would love to switch to something better; at this point, I'm reading them out of habit, and because their poll tracker stuff runs a lot cleaner than RCP's.

A literal Bernie bro xp

538 is emphatically, dramatically worse this time around.

yeah i think this is true too

bernie's relationship with his brother is super cute! also bernie's brother pretty much otm

well until he gets to talking about how bernie's gonna muscle everything through congress at least

"was the primary benefit immigration preferences?"

yes, it's my understanding that it's pretty easy for Cubans to immigrate into the US, as opposed to those from, well, anywhere else.

"People who have carefully and deliberately sealed themselves off from people who don't look/talk/think as they do = often the people most obsessed with thoughts of the Scary Other who wants to come and steal their precious bodily fluids"

no shit, I have family in New Mexico backwaters who are obsessed with evil Muslims.

It may seem obvious to some but it really can't be repeated enough. The most racist/xenophobic utterances I've ever heard were in place where it was entirely possible that the speaker had never directly interacted with someone who wasn't white.

http://www.occupydemocrats.com/2016/02/18/southern-poverty-law-center-republican-party-is-now-a-hate-group-2/

We live in a bilingual demiurban neighborhood, on a busy street, eight feet from neighbors on either side. There's a bus stop in front of the house, we're a few minutes' walk from the subway, and we're six miles from a decently crime-ridden city, and nothing even remotely unpleasant has happened to me in 40 years.

My in-laws live hours from anything, up a quarter-mile of driveway, surrounded by not much more than cows and other houses inhabited by people exactly like them - that is, white Christian middle-aged NRA life members. All absolutely CERTAIN that their right to protect themselves with firearms is both absolute and DIRELY THREATENED. Because WHAT IF SOMEBODY BROKE INTO THE HOUSE? Especially SOMEONE BROWN?

I refrain from asking who's going to go out to the middle of nowhere and commando-crawl up their long-ass driveway in the dead of night to steal... what, exactly? Their shelves-ful of Precious Moments figurines?

silly, they want to invade the suburbs to put their dark penises in virgin white holes. everyone knows this.

My in-laws live hours from anything, up a quarter-mile of driveway, surrounded by not much more than cows and other houses inhabited by people exactly like them - that is, white Christian middle-aged NRA life members.

I'd be scared, true.

Seven percent of the votes are in. Clinton 50.0% Sanders 49.6% so far....

I started catching up on the Feb 13 GOP debate. The disturbing realization began to dawn on me that, at times, Trump might actually be the most sensible Republican candidate.

If Clinton were to squeak out this one, she'd be a few hundred votes away from being down 0-3.

And yet still on track for the nomination, weirdly.

Reading the 538 liveblog, I think once you start to do those, your work will inevitably turn to crap, pretty much. A while ago it was make or break for Clinton in Nevada, now Sanders needs a win more than her, because he's underperforming the model that Nate Silver made a couple of days ago.

MSNBC has called it for Clinton 52-48.

feel like that p much settles the race tbh

he'll lose south carolina, probably by double digits. he'll likely lose most of the super tuesday states. that'll probably do it.

sanders supporters will take comfort from how much he closed the margin from just a few weeks ago but eventually bernie is going to have to start winning and not just contesting these closer "shockingly competitive" primaries bc they're awarding real delegates.

xp iow i think your read is probably right

#feelthemourn

the report coming out of the harrah's cacus of sanders supporters chanting "english only" is deeply disappointing and fucked up. problem with colorblind, angry grassroots campaigns

jesus

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/

problem for bernie is the states that are favorable to him are all loaded late. i think those early states where hrc will rack up a delegate lead will discourage voters on the fence towards the end of march.

xp it was in response to dolores fucking huerta translating things. just a twitter report right now, but fuck these assholes.

why r nativists voting in the dem primary anyway? are NV caucuses open party?

I'm with Zoltan

i agree w/ the cw that a tough primary is good for the general, and certainly u hope that if clinton is going to ultimately win bernie stays close for as much of the race as possible to keep her on her toes and moving left.

on her toes and moving left:

https://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/grinding-hillary.gif

Sanders should keep it going into June just like HRH did 8 years ago

xp ...

Bye bye Bernie. He's over after Super Tuesday. Will become mathematically impossible for him pretty quick.

Latest entrance poll breakdown:
White: 49-47% Sanders
Black: 76-22% Clinton
Latino: 53-45% Sanders

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/701185994712715267

otm:

Christopher Hayes ‏@chrislhayes 1h1 hour ago

90% of straight couples in Vegas feature a woman dressed to the nines and a dude in jeans and a ratty t-shirt.

90% of straight couples in Vegas America feature a woman dressed to the nines and a dude in jeans and a ratty t-shirt.

The Culinary Workers Union, which represents 57,000 members, many of whom are Latino, declined to endorse a candidate. But on Thursday, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, who also remained neutral, said in an interview he had spoken to D. Taylor, the head of the union’s parent group, to make sure its members could have paid time off to participate in the caucuses, a move that operatives in the state believed helped tip the race in Mrs. Clinton’s favor. She overwhelmingly defeated Mr. Sanders in the caucuses that were held at six major Las Vegas casinos, including Harrah’s, the Wynn and New York-New York, which heavily draw working-class minority voters.

And that's how it's done

http://theresilientearth.com/files/images/HarryReid.gif

Trump projected to win in SC with <1% of precincts reporting

i guess their last shot at stopping trump is if a bunch of candidates drop out now

Everyone else has got to see Rubio as an empty suit at this point, right? I can't see Kasich or Jeb dropping out to endorse him, they can't believe that he can be a serious contender.

The assumption, which is based on pretty flaky data, is that endorsement or not, most of their votes will go to Rubio by default. This is simplistic and unappealing "received wisdom". I also don't see why Kasich or Jeb would drop out at this point. If their path to the nomination is narrow, it was already so and this didn't really narrow it further.

Shorter 538 in 2016: Rubio will do better than polls predict! Oh wait, he hasn't... er, Rubio has done better than results show.

i guess their last shot at stopping trump is if a bunch of candidates drop out now

that would have been their first shot, too, if they had a brain among them, but they loved the idea of getting a lot of TV and didn't do the math on what that'd mean for the guy who'd actually had a TV show