I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

Seven percent of the votes are in. Clinton 50.0% Sanders 49.6% so far....

I started catching up on the Feb 13 GOP debate. The disturbing realization began to dawn on me that, at times, Trump might actually be the most sensible Republican candidate.

If Clinton were to squeak out this one, she'd be a few hundred votes away from being down 0-3.

And yet still on track for the nomination, weirdly.

Reading the 538 liveblog, I think once you start to do those, your work will inevitably turn to crap, pretty much. A while ago it was make or break for Clinton in Nevada, now Sanders needs a win more than her, because he's underperforming the model that Nate Silver made a couple of days ago.

MSNBC has called it for Clinton 52-48.

feel like that p much settles the race tbh

he'll lose south carolina, probably by double digits. he'll likely lose most of the super tuesday states. that'll probably do it.

sanders supporters will take comfort from how much he closed the margin from just a few weeks ago but eventually bernie is going to have to start winning and not just contesting these closer "shockingly competitive" primaries bc they're awarding real delegates.

xp iow i think your read is probably right

#feelthemourn

the report coming out of the harrah's cacus of sanders supporters chanting "english only" is deeply disappointing and fucked up. problem with colorblind, angry grassroots campaigns

jesus

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/

problem for bernie is the states that are favorable to him are all loaded late. i think those early states where hrc will rack up a delegate lead will discourage voters on the fence towards the end of march.

xp it was in response to dolores fucking huerta translating things. just a twitter report right now, but fuck these assholes.

why r nativists voting in the dem primary anyway? are NV caucuses open party?

I'm with Zoltan

i agree w/ the cw that a tough primary is good for the general, and certainly u hope that if clinton is going to ultimately win bernie stays close for as much of the race as possible to keep her on her toes and moving left.

on her toes and moving left:

https://fellowshipofminds.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/grinding-hillary.gif

Sanders should keep it going into June just like HRH did 8 years ago

xp ...

Bye bye Bernie. He's over after Super Tuesday. Will become mathematically impossible for him pretty quick.

Latest entrance poll breakdown:
White: 49-47% Sanders
Black: 76-22% Clinton
Latino: 53-45% Sanders

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/701185994712715267

otm:

Christopher Hayes ‏@chrislhayes 1h1 hour ago

90% of straight couples in Vegas feature a woman dressed to the nines and a dude in jeans and a ratty t-shirt.

90% of straight couples in Vegas America feature a woman dressed to the nines and a dude in jeans and a ratty t-shirt.

The Culinary Workers Union, which represents 57,000 members, many of whom are Latino, declined to endorse a candidate. But on Thursday, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, who also remained neutral, said in an interview he had spoken to D. Taylor, the head of the union’s parent group, to make sure its members could have paid time off to participate in the caucuses, a move that operatives in the state believed helped tip the race in Mrs. Clinton’s favor. She overwhelmingly defeated Mr. Sanders in the caucuses that were held at six major Las Vegas casinos, including Harrah’s, the Wynn and New York-New York, which heavily draw working-class minority voters.

And that's how it's done

http://theresilientearth.com/files/images/HarryReid.gif

Trump projected to win in SC with <1% of precincts reporting

i guess their last shot at stopping trump is if a bunch of candidates drop out now

Everyone else has got to see Rubio as an empty suit at this point, right? I can't see Kasich or Jeb dropping out to endorse him, they can't believe that he can be a serious contender.

The assumption, which is based on pretty flaky data, is that endorsement or not, most of their votes will go to Rubio by default. This is simplistic and unappealing "received wisdom". I also don't see why Kasich or Jeb would drop out at this point. If their path to the nomination is narrow, it was already so and this didn't really narrow it further.

Shorter 538 in 2016: Rubio will do better than polls predict! Oh wait, he hasn't... er, Rubio has done better than results show.

i guess their last shot at stopping trump is if a bunch of candidates drop out now

that would have been their first shot, too, if they had a brain among them, but they loved the idea of getting a lot of TV and didn't do the math on what that'd mean for the guy who'd actually had a TV show

JEB!s done after this guys, come on. Even he doesnt want to endure the humiliation of losing in Florida

I hope Trump runs every four years, from now until his death.

And that's how it's done

yes in fact paid time off to participate is a pretty major part of how a modern democracy should function

Unless the remains of the already non-existent GOP establishment circumvents the will of primary voters, it looks likely that Trump will become the GOP presidential nominee in a few months. Here's the problem: from Reince Priebus to my congressman Carlos Curbelo, every Republican paladin has to proffer an alternative, and the alternative is a man who abandoned his own immigration reform bill, wants to rescind the Iran deal, and thinks we should shut down any place in which Muslims get inspiration for jihad. Marco Rubio is the Establishment Candidate. Rubio was part of the field whom nine months ago Beltway pundits thought was the best and smartest in thirty years. There is no difference between Rubio and Trump other than his acceptance by smart money.

Well maybe not policy differences

omigod Jeb Bush looks like he's gonna cry

he's dropping out!

Told ya

You're not going to have Jeb Bush to kick around anymore.

He looks absolutely crushed. He looks like his old man did in November 1992.

damn the average GOP candidate has just become 18.6% crazier

Alfred Soto "The amazing humor of Lindsey Graham" -- classic Bush malapropism

did he mean to say, "Lindsey is a subject of humor"?

sorry -- c&p'ed Facebook comment

Geez, why crushed? I'd think he'd feel relieved to be free of this charade - he's been phoning it in for a while.

He can finally finish Meacham's book on his dad!

lol alfred

http://twitter.com/ElizabethEmken/status/701202888517812224

Every candidate who has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has gone on to win the Republican nomination. Every. One.