I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

I'm increasingly certain that this is not a world that I can, in good conscience, continue to live in.

And the other who brings about better health care, doesn't want kids shooting each other, tries to be fair-minded to immigrants and minorities, and he's the Hitler?

You gotta remember that in their world, Obama is e.g. imposing a school curriculum that requires their kids to subscribe to Communism and Islam. I mean, if there really was a federal government that required all public schoolchildren to convert to Islam, or was preparing concentration camps for believing Christians, or covertly murdering Supreme Court justices, that would be pretty bad!

Trump has no chance of winning the general election guys, the demographic math is totally against him

do you think it's 0%, or more like 10%?

and if the economy crashed in September, or there was a terrible terrorist attack in October, would it still be 0%?

nothing's 0%. huge earth-shaking crises are generally v difficult to predict and obviously render anything possible - IN ANY ELECTION - not just this one. I think there's still a chance he doesn't get the nomination, but that window is closing and either Rubio or Cruz has to go.

it's like sarah palin running for president imo. trump is the die-hard candidate of ~30% of republicans and maybe 50-60% of republicans dislike him strongly. he's also anathema to key groups any republican would have to win to have a shot at the electoral math. go back into the shadow, flame of atlantic city. you shall not pass.

really surprised Trump's palling around w/ Clintons, Sharpton etc, not to mention his phone call with Bill last spring hasn't gained any real traction with a demographic so susceptible to conspiracy theories.

I'm with Karl on this. Treating something as an impossibility as opposed to a low statistical probability implies different approaches for any democratic campaign going up against Trump. I always feel nervous saying something can't happen because it implies it can simply be ignored. The reality is that any democratic candidate needs to have an actual strategy to win no matter how much the odds favor them. Also, if the democrats have an advantage, they should press it as much as possible rather than just sitting back and doing nothing.

Yeah, but doomed or not, Trump's campaign can instigate a organized white nationalist front who's up & running stronger within 2-4 years. It's not necessarily(or even necessary) how fascist the dude is, but how proto-fascist the elements that he winds up activating.

This won't lead to some BNP-type(ANP?) running a national campaign, but it sure as shit can galvanize state activity, esp in places like Idaho where you have a sufficient portion of the population.

well yeah, and they'll do that, i assume! even if clinton knows the winds are in her favor, she'd rather win by a landslide than by a solid margin, and rather win by a solid margin than in a squeaker. just saying it may not be necessary to go into panic mode at this time. non-zero possibility sure but i mean, there are lots of horrible non-zero possibilities out there.

agreed with kingfish though - this is much more the thing to worry about and fight against, and has been since last summer.

it's an unconventional election and donald is an unconventional candidate and so far no one has accurately predicted his current success so i'm wary of anyone saying it's an impossibility that he would win.

agreed

in fact, I think we had the same conversation regarding the primaries and it's looking more and more likely that he'll get the nomination

if things keep proceeding more or less as they have, it would be a landslide victory for clinton over trump.

i guess i worry too much about things like this, but if you were part of a terror group, wouldn't it seem obvious that fall 2016 would be the perfect time for a prominent attack on the U.S., preferably in a way that seemed to support Trump's views on border security and immigration and the like? you'd hope that in the wake of a terrible attack we'd all kind of take a deep breath and take time to mourn and respond with dignity rather than bloodlust, but iirc in the wake of 9/11 the defining theme wasn't "forgiveness" or "rationality" or whatever, it was "REVENGE". we can collectively react in a terrifying way when prompted to do so, and has there ever been a better candidate for revenge than Trump? it would be like handing the election to him. that's the scenario i worry about, or something along those lines that temporarily tips the scales toward vengeance and violence.

Let's remember that in 2008 the world-shattering event was the collapse of the financial sector, and the Republican with the proto-Trump on its ticket suddenly looked moronic and glassy-eyed. I was saying in November that Trump would likely get the nomination but I can't figure out how he's suddenly going to convert Hispanics and blacks should another AIG collapse.

Agree on the unconventionality of this cycle, but I still hold that Trump will become president only if Clinton gets arrested or dies. (And remember that Obama could pardon her, Ford-style, if he felt like it.)

Trump needs to get from his core of his supporters to some kind of majority, and just because he hasn't found his ceiling yet doesn't mean there isn't one. In the meantime, it's an interesting show. Watching the Republicans try to come up with a non-Trump makes me nostalgic for when they were trying to come up with a non-Romney. Remember the delightful Bachman, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum mini-surges?

http://i.imgur.com/5a76Y5W.jpg

Memorably, iatee called it the "Angry Birds trajectory" here:

2012 republican presidential nominee III: can romney get santorum out of his hair?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/sharpton-trump-is-the-white-don-king-219601

i'm wary of anyone saying it's an impossibility that he would win.

Yeah, Life is dumber than Fiction, after all, and all this shit is just confirming that bias.

I'm wary of anyone saying it's an impossibility that Reagan couldn't come back to earth and win the nomination and presidency.

Let's remember that in 2008 the world-shattering event was the collapse of the financial sector, and the Republican with the proto-Trump on its ticket suddenly looked moronic and glassy-eyed. I was saying in November that Trump would likely get the nomination but I can't figure out how he's suddenly going to convert Hispanics and blacks should another AIG collapse.

About the only thing I can think of that could give Trump a serious boost would be a succession of black/Hispanic/Muslim serial killers successfully targeting hundreds of white people. Any other disaster doesn't play to his platform.

"can romney get santorum out of his hair?"

this was one of the better election titles in a very long time. rip rick santorum

About the only thing I can think of that could give Trump a serious boost would be a succession of black/Hispanic/Muslim serial killers successfully targeting hundreds of white people. Any other disaster doesn't play to his platform.

what about an attack on U.S. soil that ISIS claimed responsibility for?

is his share of the vote large enough to win a general election even if ISIS conquered Idaho?

and the ISIS agent snuck into the country over the Mexican border xp

now if the ISIS agent snuck in after Trump built the Mexico-funded wall he's in trouble

AND the ISIS agent was wearing a Hillary Clinton campaign button
AND the ISIS agent was bill clinton

Trump isn't running on a neocon platform, though. he's said he wants to kick Muslims out of the usa, but has he said wants to bomb the Middle East into the stone age? I haven't paid enough attention but I thought he was running as an isolationist (hence the attacks on little Bush's Iraq war in that recent debate)

I don't agree that an ISIS attack is some magic ticket for Trump. First of all even if most Americans suddenly decided that ISIS was absolutely the most important issue, overriding all else - you put Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the same stage and ask them both to talk about how they love bombing and destruction and Hillary Clinton will win, not only in the seasoned dealing of death but in the swirl of facts and figures and naming countries and leaders that makes somebody sound like they "know what to do with foreign policy." This is sad and I don't like it, but in this case useful: Trump will look like a buffoon shouting one-liners (probably about Benghazi or about "making deals") and Clinton will pitch herself as an experienced stateswoman with her hand on the pulse of a complicated "dangerous world."

he is oddly inconsistent

I'm not sure Trump really has a coherent foreign policy, although he usually sounds less hawkish than Rubio.

Yep. HRC is much more convincing saying "Trust me. I can find Syria on the map and lose no sleep killing children."

xpost to Euler: http://www.vice.com/read/donald-trump-says-hell-behead-isis-and-steal-their-oil-in-his-first-campaign-video-vgtrn

dr c, i know it's silly to debate because it's all just hypothetical, but in that scenario, i can see clinton doing exactly what you say, and trump doing his one-liner buffoon thing, and him coming out on top. i guess it just depends on how cynical you are about americans. clinton would respond with a stance that is Hawkish by democrat standards, but i'm also guessing she would pay lip service to building a coalition, sanctions, etc. trump would likely advocate ted cruz's carpetbombing strategy, and reiterate his promise to steal their oil. it's similar to the border wall - not only will we build the big beautiful wall, but we'll make Mexico pay for it! so there's a contrast of styles. but in times of national trauma, i'm not confident in the american voters ability to choose something other than vengeance.

Trump says Rubio *might* be an extradimensional lizard rapist, he's just "not sure": http://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Donald-Trump-has-a-new-surging-rival-in-his-6527088.php

xpost Basically. I agree that it is alarming that we could look forward to having that conversation, and I think it would be as damaging to our ability to discuss foreign policy in a sane fashion as, well, nearly every other public conversation about war and death-dealing. I would much prefer them to be talking about tax policy. If Karl's October surprise does not happen we can probably look forward to that instead.

Trump's one-liner buffoon thing is only popular with the 25-35% of Republicans who are voting for him already though! I'm with Alfred - who specifically are we imagining being won over? Which states do they live in, what's their electoral math?

dr c, i know it's silly to debate because it's all just hypothetical, but in that scenario, i can see clinton doing exactly what you say, and trump doing his one-liner buffoon thing, and him coming out on top. i guess it just depends on how cynical you are about americans. clinton would respond with a stance that is Hawkish by democrat standards, but i'm also guessing she would pay lip service to building a coalition, sanctions, etc. trump would likely advocate ted cruz's carpetbombing strategy, and reiterate his promise to steal their oil. it's similar to the border wall - not only will we build the big beautiful wall, but we'll make Mexico pay for it! so there's a contrast of styles. but in times of national trauma, i'm not confident in the american voters ability to choose something other than vengeance.

All Clinton has to say is "I was Secretary of State when we found and killed bin Laden."

Perhaps she'll go on to say "We will find them. We will find them and murder them in the face," but that would just be gravy.

I'm with Alfred - who specifically are we imagining being won over? Which states do they live in, what's their electoral math?

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/cvfspjk4hesmzts2bc0brg.gif

I have a friend who makes a fetish of worrying. He thinks that Trumpism is alluring enough to convert millions of people in blue states. When I tell him otherwise he thinks I'm being realistic. Ted Cruz worries me more than Trump, and he stands no chance of winning a San Antonio Kiwanis Club treasurer position.

i know i sound like a lunatic, but in the wake of national trauma i think we collectively lose our minds, it doesn't matter whether you're in Idaho (sorry Idaho) or in Chicago

lol UNrealistic

as cynical as i can be about americans, certain demographic obstacles exist for trump in a general election against clinton and it's difficult to see how he would overcome them. obviously blacks and hispanics, and hispanics are especially crucial bc i think he would lose them by margins even greater than romney in 2012. he would have serious issues w/ women, anyone w/ a college education. honestly i have a hard time seeing how he would win any demographic group except for white men without a college education? maaaaayybe white men in general?

i know i sound like a lunatic, but in the wake of national trauma i think we collectively lose our minds, it doesn't matter whether you're in Idaho (sorry Idaho) or in Chicago

just FYI, if a spike were to happen it would likely benefit Obama rather than either of the people running for President

anyway, i don't know why i'm wasting time thinking about it. to make myself look slightly less insane, i'll note that i think the probability of that kind of attack is very low. but i'm just raising it as an example of the kind of unforeseen event that has a non-zero chance of occurring. that's why trump as a general election candidate scares me, because it's not impossible that he could win.

LOL

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/22/newt-to-fox-you-invented-donald-trump.html?source=TDB&via=FB_Page

are we really doing the "freak out about republican winning the presidency" thing already?

i'm sorry, i'm just having a moment.

i hate mondays

It's OK, dawg.

Listen to something relaxing like The Life of Pablo.

if anyone needs me i'll be in my shack in the woods. just look for the barbwire GIF projection reflecting on the pond

I recommend the Android commercial with the dude playing the piano with all the keys restrung to the same note