I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

Let's remember that in 2008 the world-shattering event was the collapse of the financial sector, and the Republican with the proto-Trump on its ticket suddenly looked moronic and glassy-eyed. I was saying in November that Trump would likely get the nomination but I can't figure out how he's suddenly going to convert Hispanics and blacks should another AIG collapse.

About the only thing I can think of that could give Trump a serious boost would be a succession of black/Hispanic/Muslim serial killers successfully targeting hundreds of white people. Any other disaster doesn't play to his platform.

"can romney get santorum out of his hair?"

this was one of the better election titles in a very long time. rip rick santorum

About the only thing I can think of that could give Trump a serious boost would be a succession of black/Hispanic/Muslim serial killers successfully targeting hundreds of white people. Any other disaster doesn't play to his platform.

what about an attack on U.S. soil that ISIS claimed responsibility for?

is his share of the vote large enough to win a general election even if ISIS conquered Idaho?

and the ISIS agent snuck into the country over the Mexican border xp

now if the ISIS agent snuck in after Trump built the Mexico-funded wall he's in trouble

AND the ISIS agent was wearing a Hillary Clinton campaign button
AND the ISIS agent was bill clinton

Trump isn't running on a neocon platform, though. he's said he wants to kick Muslims out of the usa, but has he said wants to bomb the Middle East into the stone age? I haven't paid enough attention but I thought he was running as an isolationist (hence the attacks on little Bush's Iraq war in that recent debate)

I don't agree that an ISIS attack is some magic ticket for Trump. First of all even if most Americans suddenly decided that ISIS was absolutely the most important issue, overriding all else - you put Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the same stage and ask them both to talk about how they love bombing and destruction and Hillary Clinton will win, not only in the seasoned dealing of death but in the swirl of facts and figures and naming countries and leaders that makes somebody sound like they "know what to do with foreign policy." This is sad and I don't like it, but in this case useful: Trump will look like a buffoon shouting one-liners (probably about Benghazi or about "making deals") and Clinton will pitch herself as an experienced stateswoman with her hand on the pulse of a complicated "dangerous world."

he is oddly inconsistent

I'm not sure Trump really has a coherent foreign policy, although he usually sounds less hawkish than Rubio.

Yep. HRC is much more convincing saying "Trust me. I can find Syria on the map and lose no sleep killing children."

xpost to Euler: http://www.vice.com/read/donald-trump-says-hell-behead-isis-and-steal-their-oil-in-his-first-campaign-video-vgtrn

dr c, i know it's silly to debate because it's all just hypothetical, but in that scenario, i can see clinton doing exactly what you say, and trump doing his one-liner buffoon thing, and him coming out on top. i guess it just depends on how cynical you are about americans. clinton would respond with a stance that is Hawkish by democrat standards, but i'm also guessing she would pay lip service to building a coalition, sanctions, etc. trump would likely advocate ted cruz's carpetbombing strategy, and reiterate his promise to steal their oil. it's similar to the border wall - not only will we build the big beautiful wall, but we'll make Mexico pay for it! so there's a contrast of styles. but in times of national trauma, i'm not confident in the american voters ability to choose something other than vengeance.

Trump says Rubio *might* be an extradimensional lizard rapist, he's just "not sure": http://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Donald-Trump-has-a-new-surging-rival-in-his-6527088.php

xpost Basically. I agree that it is alarming that we could look forward to having that conversation, and I think it would be as damaging to our ability to discuss foreign policy in a sane fashion as, well, nearly every other public conversation about war and death-dealing. I would much prefer them to be talking about tax policy. If Karl's October surprise does not happen we can probably look forward to that instead.

Trump's one-liner buffoon thing is only popular with the 25-35% of Republicans who are voting for him already though! I'm with Alfred - who specifically are we imagining being won over? Which states do they live in, what's their electoral math?

dr c, i know it's silly to debate because it's all just hypothetical, but in that scenario, i can see clinton doing exactly what you say, and trump doing his one-liner buffoon thing, and him coming out on top. i guess it just depends on how cynical you are about americans. clinton would respond with a stance that is Hawkish by democrat standards, but i'm also guessing she would pay lip service to building a coalition, sanctions, etc. trump would likely advocate ted cruz's carpetbombing strategy, and reiterate his promise to steal their oil. it's similar to the border wall - not only will we build the big beautiful wall, but we'll make Mexico pay for it! so there's a contrast of styles. but in times of national trauma, i'm not confident in the american voters ability to choose something other than vengeance.

All Clinton has to say is "I was Secretary of State when we found and killed bin Laden."

Perhaps she'll go on to say "We will find them. We will find them and murder them in the face," but that would just be gravy.

I'm with Alfred - who specifically are we imagining being won over? Which states do they live in, what's their electoral math?

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/cvfspjk4hesmzts2bc0brg.gif

I have a friend who makes a fetish of worrying. He thinks that Trumpism is alluring enough to convert millions of people in blue states. When I tell him otherwise he thinks I'm being realistic. Ted Cruz worries me more than Trump, and he stands no chance of winning a San Antonio Kiwanis Club treasurer position.

i know i sound like a lunatic, but in the wake of national trauma i think we collectively lose our minds, it doesn't matter whether you're in Idaho (sorry Idaho) or in Chicago

lol UNrealistic

as cynical as i can be about americans, certain demographic obstacles exist for trump in a general election against clinton and it's difficult to see how he would overcome them. obviously blacks and hispanics, and hispanics are especially crucial bc i think he would lose them by margins even greater than romney in 2012. he would have serious issues w/ women, anyone w/ a college education. honestly i have a hard time seeing how he would win any demographic group except for white men without a college education? maaaaayybe white men in general?

i know i sound like a lunatic, but in the wake of national trauma i think we collectively lose our minds, it doesn't matter whether you're in Idaho (sorry Idaho) or in Chicago

just FYI, if a spike were to happen it would likely benefit Obama rather than either of the people running for President

anyway, i don't know why i'm wasting time thinking about it. to make myself look slightly less insane, i'll note that i think the probability of that kind of attack is very low. but i'm just raising it as an example of the kind of unforeseen event that has a non-zero chance of occurring. that's why trump as a general election candidate scares me, because it's not impossible that he could win.

LOL

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/22/newt-to-fox-you-invented-donald-trump.html?source=TDB&via=FB_Page

are we really doing the "freak out about republican winning the presidency" thing already?

i'm sorry, i'm just having a moment.

i hate mondays

It's OK, dawg.

Listen to something relaxing like The Life of Pablo.

if anyone needs me i'll be in my shack in the woods. just look for the barbwire GIF projection reflecting on the pond

I recommend the Android commercial with the dude playing the piano with all the keys restrung to the same note

karl i see what you mean, most of my cynicism stems from the bush era but i think bush was a pretty different beast than trump, he was seen as way more reasonable and likeable, trump is really more of a palin-type figure and like others have said i think an october disaster would only highlight his buffoonery even more especially against clinton

I mean, the so-called GOP establishment is panicking because they know Trump has cornered support but has little chance of persuading anyone else.

trump is not really palin-like except in maybe the demographic he appeals to. trump can only ever be trump.

Sharpton is quite good on Trump afaict.

trump is not really palin-like except in maybe the demographic he appeals to.

that's kind of what i meant, his supporting demographics are extremely limited

the thing about GWB was that he seemed so harmless and pitiable in a way that made you like him (unlike Jeb! where you just wanted someone to put him down.) And he did carry himself in a way that was not entirely horrible. he was probably more destructive that way, i guess. But Trump just seems like such a buffoon, I keep trying to imagine him giving a state of the union address and i can't do it.

I'm not particularly worried about Trump becoming president, in fact, odds are that he'll lose very badly. I just tend to read into these discussions an implication that a democratic nominee might as well snooze right through the election. Personally, I want them to capitalize on these very special circumstances and inflict as much pain on republicans as possible.

Trump certainly has a ceiling, but i would surmise it's much higher than Palin's.

also Republicans hate Hillary, sure, but I also think deep in their black hearts they know they aren't going to hate her as president nearly as much as they hated Obama. and maybe not as much as they'd hate Trump. i suspect they're kinda willing to let this election slide and hope for a better candidate in four years (or eight.)

the thing about GWB was that he seemed so harmless and pitiable in a way that made you like him (unlike Jeb! where you just wanted someone to put him down.) And he did carry himself in a way that was not entirely horrible.

are you kidding

Bush was a smug, cheap asswipe whom no amount of Trumps and Palins will improve.

Many Republicans who fought the impeachment wars have said they don't find Bubba as noxious anymore. Obama will look like Lincoln when President Warren runs for her second term.

are you kidding

Will gets snippy: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trump-wrecks-the-gop-by-driving-the-campaign-conversation/2016/02/21/b4b6c5b2-d8d4-11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html

Putin's a buffoon in a very similar way, and I think that's part of Trump's appeal, as a guy who can be just as fiercely buffoonish.

hey i didn't like GWB at all. i'm just looking at it from a certain perspective and from what other people tell me. I also think, tbf, that ensuing republican candidates both failed and successful have made people like him more, retrospectively.

tbf Putin has actually had people murdered

xp

i've had other people tell me they "like" GWB, in a "get a beer with him" sense. idk.

I mean Putin is def cartoonish and a hyper-media-driven-Alphamale but he also knows where the bodies are buried. Trump is just a gasbag.

xp

Bush had had people murdered and smirked and giggled about it.