I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

you should update your prior in favour of polls and unfavour of prediction markets given that they failed to predict trump and were stable on Jeb winning until not so long ago

2) how many of you are still convinced that trump can't win? i admit that i'm growing more terrified by the day.

my gut says he can't beat bernie or hillary but anyone who thinks they know for sure what will happen at this pt is a fool

polls too far out r p much useless tho xp

xpost oh, yeah, I mean, I know that, just playing games.

prediction markets are nothing but conventional wisdom turned into numbers. especially with something like 'who's gonna win the presidency' when there's not any insider info or anything to move the markets. we're currently in a period where convention wisdom has been totally torn to shreds.

smug meme posting blowhards on Facebook?

well i never...

i love Hillary supporter's brilliant tactic of constantly insulting Bernie supporters. makes me like her even more.

im voting bernie m8

prediction markets are useful to answer

1) has conventional wisdom changed?
2) what is conventional wisdom?

ive actually voted for bernie before so plz worship me make a meme of me

https://twitter.com/AndrewKirell/status/703066346469400576

the pundit CW was "No one like Trump has ever been nominated," and that's true. When something new happens it's called history though, which happens now and then. See also "Wall Street always comes back from a downturn..." I'm sorry I may not be around to see that one smashed to widdy biddy pieces.

i mean flooded to rushing gushing fllortrader exploding lungs

the people answering those prediction market questions are answering with head not heart, which is not to say they know more than the pundit class (or even that they are different people), but that they care more about being right than they do changing things or being seen to be right.

also empirically prediction markets have done better than polls. being better than something very bad and increasingly useless is damning with faint praise though, i know.

Trump will lose and I'm a fool.

i love Hillary supporter's brilliant tactic of constantly insulting Bernie supporters. makes me like her even more.

― AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, February 26, 2016 7:44 PM (9 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

bernie stans 'hillary is worse than hitler Im not voting for her' tactics dont make me like him either.

the supporters are bad but the candidates...the candidates are extremely good

idk if prediction markets reflect conventional wisdom exactly, if expert wisdom disagrees with conventional wisdom and an expert places a bit that changes the probabilities it becomes expert wisdom.

i donated 50 beans to bernie's campaignrevolution yet a lot of the smug memes annoy the hell outta me and tempt the smoldering neoliberal within me. i'm also cool with hilary and try to defend her against haters from the left. i actually find her kinda likable and smart-seeming in the debates

also even if they don't fuck or whatever i find the idea of a couple where both husband and wife have commanded the most powerful nation in the world really hot

if you guys don't want to see smug memes maybe you shouldn't logon to Facebook

if you don't want to smell piss don't walk around downtown

if you guys don't want to see smug memes maybe you shouldn't logon to Facebook

― AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, February 26, 2016 3:01 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

reasonable tbh

i know what you mean flopson, when they deregulated banks and took food away from poor children my boner was goin'

the people answering those prediction market questions are answering with head not heart, which is not to say they know more than the pundit class (or even that they are different people), but that they care more about being right than they do changing things or being seen to be right.

also empirically prediction markets have done better than polls. being better than something very bad and increasingly useless is damning with faint praise though, i know.

I'm not anti-prediction markets, I think having some marker of conventional wisdom is useful, but it's important to remember that these markets are really small. like for the previous few elections there was evidence that one or two people single-handedly pushed the intrade market. I made some money off those people. in any case, it makes sense that prediction markets that can take information from tons of polls and contextualize them would outperform polls alone.

My only request, if it becomes clear that Trump will be elected, is that we keep building that wall higher until it's a dome covering the entire country. And then we detonate all of the nukes for the sake of the rest of the world that maybe still has a chance.

the people answering those prediction market questions are answering with head not heart, which is not to say they know more than the pundit class (or even that they are different people), but that they care more about being right than they do changing things or being seen to be right

how do we know this? i mean, the actual financial markets often lack a strong connection to irl circumstances despite having a lot of data that these predictors presumably don't.

at least the presidential prediction market has an endpoint in time, i suppose

i wld actually like to see trump attempt to build his beautiful wall tbh and to make mexico pay for it

trump is in this mostly to build that wall/out negotiate mexico imo

look we all know it is ridiculous to think that mexico could be bullied into paying for it

canada otoh...

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/13/PinkFloydWallCoverOriginalNoText.jpg/220px-PinkFloydWallCoverOriginalNoText.jpg

he just really wants to build a fantastic wall hes the best at building things

a good burn wld be if hillary promised to make trump secretary of building the wall and getting the money for it from mexico

building a wall would be a p dope public employment program tbf, def pay people to build stuff and if the money comes from mexico all the better. maybe president trump could get congress to compromise -- build the wall but at the same time liberalize immigration policy

build walls against the ocean might be a good idea

would the wall read TRUMP on it like his skyscraper in chicago?

i can hardly make jokes about this guy anymore, the laughter sticks in my throat. if someone kills him i'll be ready to make jokes again.

hmmm xxp

Trump returns to his roots in prop comedy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7kfT4xRFhk

building the wall and getting Canada to pay for it is part of the plot of infinite jest iirc

he really is a pure fascist the american mussolini what a bizarre dude

build walls against the ocean might be a good idea

― lag∞n, Friday, February 26, 2016 3:17 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ha otm

would the wall read TRUMP on it like his skyscraper in chicago?

http://design.newcity.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/rump.jpeg

is there a prediction market meme

how do we know this? i mean, the actual financial markets often lack a strong connection to irl circumstances despite having a lot of data that these predictors presumably don't.

― mookieproof, Friday, February 26, 2016 3:09 PM (11 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is fair. i guess the argument is that empirically they have worked (in the sense of doing better than pretty much anything else) for the last few years. i'm guilty of post hoc here though i know.

iatee if the market was that small then it would be less stable, not more stable (unless you think there's almost no one betting).

http://49.media.tumblr.com/e91443ff2d0572657136d8e98bb459ff/tumblr_mjdirx20wV1s7gfo5o1_400.gif

xp

Meantime in right wing swamp fever land:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/02/breaking-christie-endorses-trump.php

I spoke with a prominent person in Washington just now—a name you’d recognize—who told me he thinks the Obama administration is behind this, with a threat to Christie that he’d be prosecuted for “Bridgegate” unless he endorsed Trump.

compared to real markets, yeah I think there's almost no one betting.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/09/23/one-big-trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney-study-finds

lmao nice xp

now we know what Bachmann has been up to

i dont really get the rubio is a water bottle joke