I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

haha the rubio water-break thing from the SOTU response is so great

if someone lost _millions_ shifting the market a few % like that in 2012 (i also bet against that person on intrade lol good times) then the market is by defn active enough that it takes millions to shift it.

in any case no activity at all on the 2016 outcome market for the past couple of months seems pretty far fetched.

and if it's _at all_ active then the only explanation for stability like you see in the current GOP vs dem market is that it's active enough to maintain stability. small markets have wild shifts on individual trades.

"a name you'd recognize" is grebt. Could be John or Bob or Mary! I recognize those names. Lots of people have them

I keep trying to bookmark this thread and it doesn't work -- like Rubio trying to keep from reaching for a water bottle

I think people are making smaller bets on the gop vs dem market partly because it's less fun than betting on candidates. if you read that wsj article - most people are betting on candidates they favored, and sticking with them. that's very much hearts not heads.

also this is just my guess, but I think 60% operates as some sort of mental ceiling for how much people want to think about a race where one of the parties is actually wildly favored. but I don't think the fact that it hovers around a round number is a coincidence.

Here's my question: How many of Donald Trump's insane ideas do people in this thread a) think he'll remember by the time he takes office - it's not like he's writing this shit down, after all, and b) think he can get through Congress?

http://i.imgur.com/ZDrVeSr.png

ah i get the significance of yr 60% point. interesting (although i don't agree because personally i do all my betting in base 16, and it's not a round number in that)

https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jT0IB-ef6a1gplA__X7oW4qltkc=/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6111515/trump%20gif.gif

I think the question is less about what vaguely-stated policy positions Donald Trump honestly intends to follow through on (my guess: roughly zero) and more about what his angle is in wanting to be president in the first place. Does he have some shifty scheme up his sleeve to make bank as president? Does he think this will give him leverage on construction projects overseas or some shit? He doesn't strike me as someone who believes in much beyond $$$ so I have a hard time seeing him throwing his presidential weight at any issue that doesn't benefit him (and probably only him) directly.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-libel-sue-media

'Cause yeah, America's libel laws are totally keeping me awake at night and are gonna kill my future children...

he desires power xp

yeah it's not complicated

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/26/new-jersey-gov-chris-christie-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/

the tone of this is really odd - Christie's a pariah and a loser, who in the GOP voting base cares about his endorsement?

Has he exhibited previous desires for power without attendant acquisition of wealth, though? If he just wanted power, why not run for mayor of NYC or something before now?

Christie feels like he needs to prove to himself that he still matters?

haha the rubio water-break thing from the SOTU response is so great

― marcos, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:36 PM (28 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you like that video, huh?

hmmmm, I'm starting to get suspicious...

feeling thirsty.... marco(s)?!?!?

"he was on television, dummy"

now he's on EVERY DAY, FOR HOURS

xxp

lol xp

Christie wants to make a bullyboy speech at the convention, if he's still at liberty

i laugh at rubio for sure but i do frequently need water during presentations

he shdve just drank the water like a big boy

i had to give a staff-wide presentation at my job a few years ago and i had this like big 40oz stainless steel bottle and i was aware of how silly it looked when i drank from it mid sentence

i think part of what was funny too was that rubio's bottle was that like tiny 6oz thing

ambitious young republicans fucking up the state of the union responce is an excellent american tradition imo

usually he prefers a sippy cup

xp

ha definitely xp

it was also the way he attempted to keep his eyes on the camera lens

nikki haley's bug-eyed alien transmission thing was pretty great this year

Nixon sweated just as much and never had this sissy waterbottle option

http://i.imgur.com/go08flz.jpg

this sort of thing comes off better as an offhanded zing than a vendetta, trump not used to ppl talking back

my favorite part is that little pause right before, like "should I do it, aw heck sure"

he wants that water so bad the whole time

just gimmie the lil sip i need it

Trump winning and tapping Christie as AG is terrifying

Would have been better if he turned around and had a sip facing away from the camera miles davis style

someone must have told him "whatever you do don't break eye contact with the camera"

xpost

or just give the whole speech that way

IMO he should have been behind a podium where he could store water, then the whole process wouldn't have looked as desperate.

Or he could have worn one of those CamelBak things with the drinking tube and kept it near his lapel.

should've delivered it from an inflatable chair in a swimming pool

a la Chris Holmes from WASP in DOWCII

http://i.imgur.com/ofAY1im.png

or they could have just hooked him up to an IV drip that was out of shot.

i'll never understand why they don't have the SOTU responders deliver in a room with a sympathetic audience and multiple cameras. it's a fakeass 'tradition' anyway, do it how you want!

ya srsly

Agree that it's fakeass - I think it's supposed to look like you just came out of hearing the speech and you're giving your extemporaneous reaction. When of course the speech was written long before and the responder has been doing nothing but preparing for it for days.

Are they making changes to the speech as the SOTU progresses? Because if not, it seems the best approach would be to pre-tape the thing.

it's supposed to not bury the person giving it under gales of laughter

"Tonight, the response to the State of the Union address will be delivered by theoretical physicist Dr. Sheldon Cooper."