I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

i think he would be stoppable if the RNC or party establishment could exert some control over the rest of the candidates, convincing them to drop out so support could coalesce around a single non-trump candidate (like rubio). but did you read that NYT piece this morning? it is a complete shitshow, these people have no control and the candidates are too prideful and/or selfish to drop out for the good of the party. and tbh, i will happily watch as the republican party burns itself to the ground

I felt like when he went after McCain with the POW stuff and nothing happened we were in new territory

felt that waywhen McCain named Palin his vp candidate

We should be enjoying watching the best the GOP had to offer getting trampled by an Ebaumsworld sockpuppet

to get the nomination? it's looking that way, no?

I think a brokered convention is an inevitability. I think the party knows that he is in no way sympathetic to the actual party or its needs, and they will sabotage a potential Trump candidacy at the convention if Rubio's latest tack doesn't hold.

(xposts) Yes--and I'll say, yet again, that got a bit of a preview of that in 2012. Exactly the same: the RNC/party establishment wanted a smooth nomination for Romney, it was anything but, and he got stuck fighting off a bunch of novelty-candidates who were too prideful and/or selfish to drop out. That time, the center held. (In the Yeats, not the political sense.)* This time, new territory.

*(I don't read Yeats in my spare time; I know that phrase from Nixon.)

i keep trying to read about the nominating process and how a brokered convention would go down, but as far as i understand it, the elected delegates (from the primaries and caucuses) are required to vote for trump on the first ballot, right? so if he wins a majority of the delegates, how can someone else be nominated?

Given the amount of "saying the quiet parts out loud" that has happened over the course of the Obama administration, I kind of agree that a contested convention is possible, if the GOP really decides it would rather keep its entrenched donor base than let Trump take the nomination. They very well might be tone deaf and careless enough to just show the whole world what they actually think of "democracy."

So "brokered convention" is an obsolete term because delegates are not dealt by brokers anymore. As you point out. A contested convention might be possible but really, after Tuesday, the only way that happens is if the RNC decides to fuck with the rules (and they very well might).

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks.

felt that waywhen McCain named Palin his vp candidate

But he got forced to take Palin by the GOP, right, since he wanted that Joementum as his running mate?

read "by the GOP" as "by GOD" the first time

http://www.brandindex.com/article/fox-news-hits-more-two-year-perception-low-republicans%E2%80%8B

delegates are not dealt by brokers anymore.

right. delegates can cut their own deals now.

only way that happens is if the RNC decides to fuck with the rules (and they very well might).

I think it's really unfair, if not downright unconstitutional, to have a controversial, divisive convention in an election year. The most fair solution would be to wait until the election is over, and then have a convention.

It would be great if Trump and Rubio both claimed to be the nominee afterwards

Lol

I know predictions are supposed to be anathema these days because Everything Is Different Now. But.

There will not be convention shenanigans. No, Trump will not have an absolute majority of votes, but he will have an inarguable plurality and by far the most delegates. Two almosts and two nevers can't unite to stop one big Fuck Yeah.

Unpledged delegates (and delegates pledged to minor candidates) can technically roam wither they will, but they won't. This isn't the age of muttonchop whiskers any more; smoke-filled back rooms are no longer tenable. If Trump has the lead in delegates, they will acquiesce and nominate him because the alternative is Epic Shitstorm.

Trump wouldn't need to run third party, all he would need to do is walk away, taking his millions of rabid idiots with him.

I have no idea how the GOP will handle a Trump-anointing convention, but p sure it won't be by nominating Rubio instead, going against the clear voice of the voters..

Perhaps McConnell will bring a live bear to the convention

I don't know what McConnell will do, but I think most GOP establishment pros will discover they have a previous engagement, and decline to attend.

Splinter party...the Nupublicanz

I can see them undermining democracy. Trump's lies are so brazen and blatant, they could make a case that he is simply unqualified to represent them. Shady, yeah, but the alternative is the Party is heretofore totally beholden to this Rush Limbaugh-like motherfucker, it's like a dog walks man situation

Some shit he says would probably be considered hate speech in some parts of Europe. "Obama is only letting in Muslim refugees, purposely excluding Christians." "The refugees are all young men, not families." "Muslims in America celebrated on 9/11 in mass numbers." It's not even dogwhistling. He's implying that Muslims are a clear and present danger, and lying blatantly to give this impression. It's so many bridges too far.

Maybe I am naive but I am shocked that this is happening, and shocked at Christie, who I always hated as a New Jersey native, but always took to be more of a heartless conservative than a racist demagogue.

heretofore totally beholden to this Rush Limbaugh-like motherfucker,

well, they've been beholden to the actual limbaugh for decades now....

christie is revealing that his driving emotion is spite, since i think he's endorsed trump to spite the party's leaders, who failed to fall in line behind him

It just sort of feels like the end of the world

when you consider that he's going to fail spectacularly and the democrats are going to make gains across the board, it really doesn't

Yeah, I'm pretty optimistic. The GOP is eating itself alive.

Yeah I'm with k3vin and Moodles - GOPsplosion will be great for Democrats (and I are one, so I like it).

been thinking about this https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/702466567058104320

maybe the reason for his popularity is the coverage and publicity. what he's saying is the reason he's getting publicity, but not why people are voting for him. a lot of people are voting him because he's on tv, and they're barely hearing from anyone else.

while he has 5 or 10 opponents, publicity only benefits him. once it gets down to a two horse race, any coverage of him is implicitly coverage of his opponent too, so the power of publicity evaporates.

Apologies in advance for size. Saw this on Twitter:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcKPVTfXEAALkaU.jpg

i mean, barring catastrophe between now and november, the supreme court is going to lean liberal for the next 25 years. that's reason for optimism

(assuming ginsburg and breyer retire during hillary's term, which they almost certainly would)

xp I hope so caek.

I really hope we are seeing the implosion of the GOP rather than its transformation into something even uglier. I am 80% certain hill or bern (probably hillary) will trounce trump in the general, but i am concerned about his ability to get his supporters to the polls, especially white independents in swing states

Either way, I am disgusted that trump's brand of blatant racism has infiltrated the mainstream.

right. there's a 80–90% chance this will work out for the better (note that i did not say "best"), but the 10–20% chance that it won't is terrifying.

xpost

I am thinking a lot about the number of global warming related refugees we will see in the next few decades. I really don't want our country to get used to a "build a wall, they're rapists" way of thinking.

get ready for a lot of 'progressive' white ppl chastising black ppl for not voting 'in their own interests'

according to Chuck Todd, Sanders' piss poor SC performance means he's vying for prime time speaking space at the convention.

Wow Hillary crushed it

It's a shame but I can live with her as a candidate.

wow uh i thought it'd be a little closer than this. some of those whose predictions i trust from the previous cycles have been saying the nomination is pretty much over since nevada. also that maybe warren will endorse hillary soon?

I'll vote for Hillary.

I would've also picked the wrench because fuck 'em that's why.

So grossed out by Human Rights Campaign shirts and paraphernalia at Clinton rally. Do they think it's cute that their abbreviations match?

Shhhh! Don't tell them she voiced support for Hosni Mubarak!

hillary has certainly done some very fucked up things in the past but ultimately i'm happy to vote for her, more and more i find myself in agreement with daria g's and mordy's earlier positive posts about her (now hidden in this massive thread). there is a lot i don't like about her and i know there would be a lot of shit i would hate about her presidency but there is also a lot that i do like about her, i think she's a pretty fascinating person and i am super excited about voting for a woman.

yes we know

I can see them undermining democracy. Trump's lies are so brazen and blatant, they could make a case that he is simply unqualified to represent them. Shady, yeah, but the alternative is the Party is heretofore totally beholden to this Rush Limbaugh-like motherfucker, it's like a dog walks man situation

― spirited ai weiwei (Treeship), Saturday, February 27, 2016 5:44 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Some shit he says would probably be considered hate speech in some parts of Europe. "Obama is only letting in Muslim refugees, purposely excluding Christians." "The refugees are all young men, not families." "Muslims in America celebrated on 9/11 in mass numbers." It's not even dogwhistling. He's implying that Muslims are a clear and present danger, and lying blatantly to give this impression. It's so many bridges too far.

― spirited ai weiwei (Treeship), Saturday, February 27, 2016 5:47 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it possible, i guess, that they would fight trump in the convention to avoid nominating him but CERTAINLY NOT because he is a racist shitbag and "rush-limbaugh-like"

Inevitability means I feel nothing at all (it's really her husband I despise). But she's likely the next president after the grotesqueries on the GOP side this week.