I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

i think they exist p much exclusively on the web, i dont think they have materialized into actual humans yet

this is the "smoke weed and fuck banks" constituency

(also misogyny)

his achievement will be moving Hillary and the party to the left

Christ, this is SO not gonna happen, are you people conscious?

He wasn't bullshitting. But yeah, his achievement will be moving Hillary and the party to the left, it's no small thing

― spirited ai weiwei (Treeship), Sunday, February 28, 2016 10:45 AM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

to be clear, i think he was sincere in his platform and presentation, but i dont think he entered the race thinking "i, bernie sanders (I-VT), have a really excellent chance at becoming president."

hrc, if elected, is going to be a neolib bomber / Goldman enabler just like O, maaaaybe worse. And you can't stop her, bcz as Senator Bulworth asked, "YA GONNA VOTE REPUBLICAN?"

morbs, if we are going to criticize hrc as being a political windsock i think its logical to say that the sanders campaign provided some leftward gales, forcing her to take some positions that she cant easily walk back. and if she wants the GOTV to beat trump, she will need to stand firm on some of those pledges. we all suspect she'll pivot to the right in the general, but this primary run i think at least mothballed her throwback 90s DLC jersey this time around.

like im not happy with her warmongering or coziness to financial elites and thats a big reason why i voted for bernie but

why im a still arguing with you youve already had this discussion with many ppl more eloquent than i for over a decade, i already know where this goes sorry, dude

yes, her rhetoric will be different for maybe 8-12 more months. ie nothing that matters has changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UM8F4EuUbw&feature=youtu.be

kind of crazy that gabbard resigned as vice chair of the DNC to jump aboard this sinking ship but good for her

i'm kinda just making shit up but if clinton wins and the GOP really does kind of explode, the sanders/warren wing of the party would be more influential, with the republican party fractured between movement conservatives and all the people who were willing to vote for the guy who isn't sure if wants to denounce the KKK or not. so maybe it finally allows room for people like gabbard to side with liberals rather than whatever clinton's crew is

Why is it obvious that Sanders is no longer in the running because he lost badly in one state where no one expected him to win and which has voted Republican since 1980? Is it that people think this reflects a broader problem with appealing to African-American voters?

maybe someone [misguidedly?] convinced her that her endorsement could help turn the sanders campaign around

xp i think most ppl who thought sanders could (or would) win were thinking that he was behind bc enough ppl didn't know him (including in african amrican communities) and that as the campaign went on he'd close the gap. first he lost nevada where you'd hope he could win if that theory were true, and then loses worse in SC than even the polls said which suggests he's not closing the gap, and certainly not in demographics where he needs to be

Cruz has been on two shows this morning throwing out the possibility that Trump's tax returns will reveal business dealings with the Mafia. (Used the word twice, along with "mob.") Even mentioned a specific name, Fat Tony or something. Trump may be in their pocket, like so many nickels and dimes.

― clemenza, Sunday, February 28, 2016 10:16 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This looks from one angle like a Hail Mary but is srsly legit and I'm surprised they haven't wheeled it out sooner. That first Trump Tower in A.C. made entirely from concrete (!) for starters, you donb't have to be Elliot Ness.

xpost

it also doesn't bode well for him in the run-up to Tuesday, which looks like it will deliver a big list of significant wins for Clinton

Why is it obvious that Sanders is no longer in the running because he lost badly in one state where no one expected him to win and which has voted Republican since 1980? Is it that people think this reflects a broader problem with appealing to African-American voters?

― Hi! I'm twice-coloured! (Sund4r), Sunday, February 28, 2016 11:11 AM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the latter. im gonna wait to see exits after super tuesday before i declare the campaign dead, but he is wounded by those south carolina numbers.

yeah, his campaign was never going to win w lopsided victories in northeast states (and even in iowa he only tied). i guess the question is whether he can win in like PA, OH and FL states. hillary is projected to win FL + OH acc to 538. PA we don't vote until much later in the cycle. 538 has hillary at 79% in MA and to me it's hard to imagine sanders could even continue his campaign if he loses there. xp

maybe someone [misguidedly?] convinced her that her endorsement could help turn the sanders campaign around

― Mordy, Sunday, February 28, 2016 12:12 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Because Wasserman-Schultz Inc. says so. Meanwhile:

Trump vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/17 -- -- 45.3 42.5 Clinton +2.8
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 1031 RV 3.0 47 42 Clinton +5
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 43 45 Trump +2
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 44 43 Clinton +1
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 47 40 Clinton +7

Trump vs. Sanders:

Poll Date Sample MoE Sanders (D) Trump (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/17 -- -- 47.5 41.5 Sanders +6.0
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 1031 RV 3.0 53 38 Sanders +15
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 48 42 Sanders +6
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 43 44 Trump +1
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 46 42 Sanders +4

Cruz vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Cruz (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/17 -- -- 45.3 44.5 Cruz +0.8
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 1031 RV 3.0 46 45 Cruz +1
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 46 43 Cruz +3
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 45 44 Cruz +1
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 44 46 Clinton +2

Cruz vs. Sanders

Poll Date Sample MoE Sanders (D) Cruz (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/15 -- -- 45.7 41.0 Sanders +4.7
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 49 39 Sanders +10
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 44 42 Sanders +2
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 44 42 Sanders +2

Rubio vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Rubio (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/17 -- -- 47.5 42.8 Rubio +4.7
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 1031 RV 3.0 48 44 Rubio +4
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 48 41 Rubio +7
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 48 42 Rubio +6
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 46 44 Rubio +2

Rubio vs. Sanders

Poll Date Sample MoE Sanders (D) Rubio (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/15 -- -- 44.0 44.0 Tie
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 47 41 Sanders +6
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 42 46 Rubio +4
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 43 45 Rubio +2

woops that was actually responding to sund4r

look i'd rather bernie won too, but those numbers don't really mean anything

That's not true. They obviously mean something. Nothing to take to the bank, but certainly discredits DNC narrative re: electability

youre wrong

Bernie isn't being best by a DNC narrative about electability

Beat

Does this mean anything?

Quinnipiac, national favorable/unfavorable, Feb. 18

1 Sanders 51/36 [+]

2 Kasich 35/18 [+]

3 Rubio 39/37 [+]

4 Clinton 37/58 [-]

5 Trump 37/57 [-]

6 Cruz 36/45 [-]

7 Bloomberg 21/26 [-]

Anybody who thinks that HRC 37 number is going to somehow move a great deal after all these years is kidding themselves.

It's a serious concern.

Bernie isn't being best by a DNC narrative about electability

― Mordy, Sunday, February 28, 2016 12:26 PM (36 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This is just patently untrue. One big reason his favorability numbers aren't mirrored in primary polls is Democrats arguing "it's too much, too soon," "a socialist in this country could never," etc.

if everyone were you then they wld vote like you

If the DNC is beating Sanders it's bc the establishment has an organized political apparatus in place in every State in the country. True grassroots means starting from scratch and this is imo the truth of the biggest knock on him: he has had decades to build this and he has nothing but some states in his demographic backyard. It's not entirely his fault but it's not a conspiracy that it turned out not to be enough

xxp Uh not really. It's more that Clinton's unfavorable rating is not mirrored by Democrats.

I also think it speaks, understandably, to African American voting and legitimate notions re: political change: that it's a painful slog over decades if not centuries.

Meanwhile on the other side we're getting a wall next year and scrapping Dept. of Ed., EPA etc.

The good news is that the ideology animating the Bernie movement is prob the future of the party even if he was not equipped to take advantage of the groundswell.

Agreed! Anyway, I'm not claiming a conspiracy—the "unelectable" narrative is a capitalistic inevitability.

tbf the communists just dispensed with the elections entirely

The real shame is that considering the field they're running against there is a strong possibility the Left will never, ever be handed an opportunity like this again—to be forward/unapologetic about its ideals w/o great risk. I mean, even during Primary season?

tbf the communists just dispensed with the elections entirely

guess I need to add "unfettered" "unregulated" "unhinged" or whatever modifier every time to avoid this straw man? I'm referring to the electoral process as capitalistic, not big picture govt. system

I really wonder where'd we be right now if Warren had run

Or Biden

It's hard not to imagine Warren would be running away with it. The seas have parted.

Biden never had a base of support

Yeah Joe Biden was a relative obscurity in American politics but he might've gotten on the ballot in a few states

hrc, if elected, is going to be a neolib bomber / Goldman enabler just like O, maaaaybe worse. And you can't stop her, bcz as Senator Bulworth asked, "YA GONNA VOTE REPUBLICAN?"

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Sunday, February 28, 2016

do you even read?

That gets in the way of quoting Bullworth

do you think Obama's governed domestically like Bill fucking Clinton? He's a neolib who's cleaned up much of Clinton's mess. As for Hillary, she's never gonna be my candidate, but there's no way she would've given last night's speech a year ago, and that's thanks to Sanders, #BlackLivesMatter, Warren, etc.

people like biden a lot, but I don't know that anyone wants him to be president. or maybe that's just how I personally feel.

less and less about politics, from this moment on

Likeability is a big thing! I dunno like would he have helped Sanders, eating in to Hillary's establishment base like Carson and Kaisch did to Jeb!? He'd definitely be connected with the DNC "donor class" in a way that Bernie never could be... Or hell is this a weird year and being kinda nutty and authentic enough?

I am pretty sad Warren's not running in retrospect, I don't see any way she couldn't be Sanders in this race but a far more appealing candidate

I want her in the Senate.

and that's all there is to it. She listens to me.