Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

otoh the ppl who would try that thinks DT's nomination cedes the election.

no, Christie for atty general xxp

arguing that whole "well the black vote just went to clinton because of name recognition and the fact that bill is southern" shit gtfo

i'm not gonna be the one to ask "what WERE the other reasons?"

for brevity, i cut out many paragraphs of him explaining that there are also many other possibilities which he has considered, and they may be in fact be possible, but not likely, that is, if certain factors play out as expected, which, of course, can never be predicted with full certainty.

weren't Christie's NJ numbers about the same a year ago?

They dipped below 30 for the first time yesterday

i want to watch josh marshall conduct a groundhog day ceremony and explain to bewildered children and exasperated grandparents the 8 to 10 scenarios that could play out if (or when? no, if) the groundhog doesn't see its shadow

kinda wish hillary would stop calling black women "dear", altho i guess maybe she calls everyone left of her that.

ie everyone she's likely to meet that she doesn't work with

what happens if Ike sticks his head out of the burrow and sees Trump's shadow instead

kinda wish hillary would stop calling black women "dear", altho i guess maybe she calls everyone left of her that.

― denies the existence of dark matter (difficult listening hour),

she looks like a classic fag hag, pretty sure she called Eisenhower "dear" too

i'm not gonna be the one to ask "what WERE the other reasons?"

they thought she'd make a better president?

Ugh, this person:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/dem-primaries/271327-clinton-to-voter-why-dont-you-go-run-for-something

― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, March 2, 2016 12:27 PM (5 minutes ago)

confronting a major candidate is a disaster waiting to happen like 95% of the time. you're not going to be more prepared than they are, especially hillary of all people

did she call him "dear"?

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Goldwater was right Guest • 21 hours ago
She has a point though. If you want change run for office.
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the trump phenomenon has nothing to do with hard-line conservatism

This is partly true - the standard bearers of hardline purist conservativism are Buckleyite NRO types and George Will and shit, all of whom are appalled by gauche Le Trumpisme. However they historically counted on having millions of compliantly voting footsoldiers to keep their power. Part of their current meltdown is that they're up on their gleaming stallions, sabres in the air, saying "Let us ride, my jolly men, so that we may defeat the odious Foe!" Then they look back and see that their army is gone, mostly decamped for Trumptown.

Liberal pundits are misinterpreting the Trump phenomenon all over the place. He doesn't fit their usual categories because in most elections the most dangerous candidate is also the most conservative one.

This is true too. But none of those previous conservative boogeymen - Reagan, Buchanan, Gingrich, Santorum - could have gotten anywhere without a legion of compliant followers. Many of those followers are now lining up behind Trump. In prior years they were satisfied with a cup of koolaid; now they've all been handed a pint of Everclear and they're thrilled.

Liberal pundits may be misinterpreting the phenomenon candidate, but by and large it's still the same segment of the electorate. They're just more fed up and they're being reached and motivated differently.

i just saw a 4-1/2 hr doc about the US and the Philippines (1900 and now) and Taft and Roosevelt were p close to genocial madmen.

i just saw a 4-1/2 hr doc about the US and the Philippines (1900 and now) and Taft and Roosevelt were p close to genocial madmen.

What's this documentary called? I'm interested and "1900 and now Philippines" and variations isn't leading anywhere. thanks

the meltdown is that they thought the republican party was about X ("conservative values") but really it was about Y ("populist bigoted rage") and it turns out that those 2 things are no longer compatible. the whole thing was a balancing act to begin w/ but they can no longer keep the plates spinning.

re Bernie, i wonder if some version of the Erica Garner ad ran throughout the South, for starters (i imagine it must've?). Have any Sanders people spoken anonymously about where their outreach to A-A voters failed, cuz it seemed 3 weeks ago they knew it was the achilles heel.

Nice Mr. Taft as governor was a fan of Western justice.

confronting a major candidate is a disaster waiting to happen like 95% of the time. you're not going to be more prepared than they are, especially hillary of all people

― k3vin k., Wednesday, March 2, 2016 5:37 PM (9 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

lol remember when the republican party desperately tried to win in '08 by spinning an unprepared dude/campaign plant who got gently schooled by obama as being a truthteller who zinged him hardcore

dsb, the film (second of two by the Emerson College prof John Gianvito) is Wake (Subic).

http://www.filmcomment.com/blog/an-epic-of-understanding-john-gianvitos-wake-subic/

btw the Philippines Supreme Court just voted to let the US re-occupy its old military bases as "guests." Imperialism is a helluva drug.

the meltdown is that they thought the republican party was about X ("conservative values") but really it was about Y ("populist bigoted rage") and it turns out that those 2 things are no longer compatible. the whole thing was a balancing act to begin w/ but they can no longer keep the plates spinning.

― Mordy, Wednesday, March 2, 2016 11:43 AM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i think this is correct but i think it could very well have been papered over with a better candidate, and could be again. it might be harder now that trump has yanked the pieces apart. but politics is a short-memory business.

the meltdown is that they thought the republican party was about X ("conservative values") but really it was about Y ("populist bigoted rage")

Agreed. My point is that both appeals are drawing from the same limited pool of voters.

Closest analogy I can think of (not that it's a perfect analogy) is if the management of Playboy were making an appeal along the lines of "OUR LOYAL READERS SUBSCRIBE FOR THE ARTICLES!" while the subscriber base is all like, "where the titties at?"

while the subscriber base is all like, "where the titties at?"

now extrapolate this to conservative politics and said in the voice of William F. Buckley, Jr.

lol @ Playboy analogy

gonna borrow that

did she call him "dear"?
― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn),

worth reposting: the moment trump told christie to go get his shinebox
https://vine.co/v/i6Ei3WPMBW6

now extrapolate this to conservative politics and said in the voice of William F. Buckley, Jr.

eye bug on "titties"

politics is a short-memory business.

As we'll all discover in September when Trump has successfully pivoted to being "presidential" and every single thing he said to fire up GOP primary voters is down the memory hole, at least for everyone except those voters, who will still believe that Trump is "one of them" even as he softens the message for the big stage.

every single thing he said to fire up GOP primary voters is down the memory hole, at least for everyone except those voters

this is not going to happen

What will stop it?

Panic.

one of the Dems key campaign strategies is going to be to constantly remind their voters how shitty Trump is - based not only on his primary shenanigans, but on his lengthy pre-campaign career

you can credibly argue that Dems don't always run the best, most strategic campaigns, but they are well aware of this and there's no way they're going to drop that angle

To place the magnitude of Rubio's dreadfulness in perspective, recall the outcome of recent non-incumbent Republican primary contests.

Although Mitt Romney prevailed in 2012, Rick Santorum managed to win 11 states. Four years before that, when John McCain carried 31 states to become his party's nominee, 11 states voted for Mitt Romney while eight went for Mike Huckabee.

Rubio isn’t remotely in the same league with any of these candidates. Not even Rick Santorum.

What makes Rubio such a nearly perfect loser? The fact that he only appeals to one small segment of his party: members of the conservative intellectual establishment. Don't believe me? Look at Virginia, where Rubio did (for him) fairly well today. What region went for him the strongest? Why the DC suburbs, of course, and especially the areas that lie inside the beltway — where the conservative intellectual establishment commutes home after toiling away on Capitol Hill and at the District's countless think tanks, policy shops, media outlets, and lobbying firms.

it's not like it would be real hard to come up with a national commercial that just replayed Trump's nastiest moments over and over again

xpost

Rick Santorum managed to win 11 states

i somehow forgot this happened

the republican party has been so craven my entire lifetime that i still would not be shocked if they fell in line behind nominee Trump but it really does seem like he is unacceptable to about 30% of the party and not in a way that can be resolved - his policy positions are too divergent from the things the party considers important (like small government ideology) and it seems [surprisingly to me] like a bunch of them really do mind explicit+overt bigotry.

if he makes it that far they're going to hammer trump so hard in the general yeah. play it next to some footage of Hillary talking to kids, "smiling", writing on some pieces of paper. three things trump actually afaik has never done.

I have no doubt that if Trump's primary-era comments get glossed over/forgotten it will only be because he starts saying even more loathsome shit during the general

if every big name Republican comes out massively, unequivocally against Trump (like Romney did on Twitter a couple days back) does that somehow work in Trump's favour?

also re hillary matchup i think he's going to look terrible attacking hillary if she can keep her cool. he'll look like a bully (i think the meagan kelly spat was an early indicator that it won't play well with most ppl). and i think she is going to dance circles around him intellectually + in terms of policy. he'll come off looking like a mean, stupid snake oil salesman and dems will take house and congress, stack the supreme court, and enjoy the hillary experience for 8 years before the inauguration of elizabeth warren.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/king-not-long-killed-trump-rally-article-1.2549868?cid=bitly

I don't think any serious Democrat intends to just sit back and hope Trump's negatives will sink him. Plans to both actively oppose and cleverly undermine him.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/01/democrats-are-taking-the-trump-threat-very-very-seriously-theyre-right/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-c%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

I know part of the standard dig against Hillary is that she was expecting coronation, but so far she's had to campaign everywhere and work for votes. If she is the nominee I don't think she's going to sit back and stay on cruise control till November. Ditto Sanders if he should be the nominee, he'd put up a spirited, smart, relentless campaign.

Either way, Trump has supplied his opponents with plenty of material, plus he seems unlikely to suddenly stop and become a cuddly statesmanlike figure.

it really does seem like he is unacceptable to about 30% of the party and not in a way that can be resolved

seems to me his biggest problem isn't the bigotry, it's that the money guys who have bankrolled the GOP (Kochs, Adelson, Chamber of Commerce, etc.) really don't like/trust him. He's gonna take away all their cheap undocumented labor! And raise their taxes! And make them pay for universal healthcare! etc. Trump has to win those guys over and/or convince them he can be negotiated with or otherwise tamed. Which may happen, idk.

xp

how shitty Trump is - based not only on his primary shenanigans, but on his lengthy pre-campaign career

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--FyXPVuk---/a1e0lul3thq1zmgdlw7q.jpg

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-MF114_TrumpC_G_20160121110643.jpg

the hat!

lol @ Giuliani

and is that Fred Thompson on Bubba's right?

but seriously who among us hasn't golfed with the occasional fascist demogogue

http://cdn.collider.com/wp-content/uploads/SinisterSix_Spider-Man.jpg