Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

fingers crossed! http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/us/politics/anti-donald-trump-republicans-call-for-a-third-party-option.html?_r=0

please please please

Defections of any scale could prove lethal to Mr. Trump. He already trails Mrs. Clinton in general election polls, and polling already shows the possibility of mass desertions from the party. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey this week found that 48 percent of Republicans who do not already back Mr. Trump said they would probably not or definitely not support him in November.

Morbs is, right?

congrats Mordy and Sotosyn, for beating Pollitt, Steinem & Co to the lib-fascist punch

also go fuck each other

that's not a no

NO, shitbird. And when did you stop beating your wife?

hey man, i'm pleasantly surprised

lol @ shitbird

these ppl are acting like this country is going down the toilet and needs some radical shakeout for its survival - it's insane. these americans must be experiencing some kind of psychotic break.

This is something that people have been wrestling with in Poland too. Objectively Poland is in a better position than it ever has been and, despite massive inequality, quality of life has never been better. The government that has just been voted in is authoritarian, regressive and actively hostile to a lot of the Europeanisation and internationalisation that arguably brought about the positive changes.

Aside from nativism and bigotry, there seems to be a widespread lack of belief that the future is going to be anything other than stagnation followed by decline. Some of it is domestic but there is a broader fear of the decline of Europe and the west as a whole.

In an American context, I would guess that there is a widespread fear of wage stagnation and further loss of OK jobs to Asia. People might not be on the breadline but it's not easy to convince them the economy is doing well if their earnings are barely keeping pace with inflation. That is a massive shift in how the market delivers if you have been conditioned to believe in endless growth. It's not surprising that the first generation in recent history to recognise their children are probably going to be worse off than them has some weird ideas about how to fix it.

Along with that, in Poland and the US you have a huge amount of resentment about a conspiracy of elites keeping the biggest portion of the pie for themselves. The more you are told the economy is growing, the easier it is to believe a cabal is hiving off the profits if you aren't seeing direct benefits. Middle class stagnation in a growing economy is a recipe for this kind of stuff.

kind of agree that the loss of social capital for working/middle class white males in the era of increasing diversity is to them like weimar republic-equivalent systemic trauma

cf: recent articles with social scientists baffled at recent stratospheric increases in mortality among only white males as a demographic group

xp

life in the US in 2016, no matter how much real wage stagnation, is nothing like life in Germany in 1933

the ready availability of cheap fast food and Walmart goods is one enormous difference, so the comparison can't be pressed too far ... but long-term decline of worker income and social stability has lasted longer here than the inter-war period in Germany

next administration is def going to have to raise min wage, tax investments heavier, increase social net, but the point is that these are aren't reforms that require tearing down the entire state and starting over. these are fixes at the margins (that will nonetheless have a huge impact on ppl's lives)

"Era of increasing diversity" is urgent and key in this I think.

Also, I read ppl are acting like this country is going down the toilet and needs some radical shakeout for its survival as "racial" shakeout, and yeah.

sure, but this hasn't happened and we keep getting told it is because we have a do-nothing congress and government is broken. many people just don't grasp that only one side of the congress is in fact doing nothing and utterly broken.

xopst

a HS friend of mine recently came out on FB as a trump support, posting this:

"I've been pretty quiet about Trump over the course of the election. Here's why...

Nobody in politics likes him. Republicans or democrats. They will make sure he doesn't get elected. It's not like it would be the first time that politicians fixed an election. They've done it before. They'll do it again.

And even if he did get elected, it's not like he's going to be Dictator Trump. He won't build a boarder wall. Too many others have to be involved to help make the project happen.

There won't be enough people backing him in congress to help make it happen. He also won't be deporting 11,000 illegal immigrants. Again, same thing. Plus, he'll be chucked out of office by both parties pretty quickly. The bad reputation he will bring to this country from other nations will force the hand of the politicians to throw him out of office.

The guy people need to be afraid of being elected is Cruz. Cruz is a constitutional lawyer. He can actually fuck this country up. He'll make W look like Lyndon Johnson.

If it came down to Cruz and Hillary, I will reluctantly vote for Hillary. But if it comes down to Trump and Hillary, I'm voting for Trump because all of the reasons I stated earlier. He won't last and none of his plans will fly."

he is a textbook bernie bro, btw, and that weird species of liberal/"progressive" that will swear up and down that he's not a racist or misogynist, it's just that blacks really do more crime if you look at the numbers and women most of the time are gold digging bitches i'm just stating the facts man

unfriend

also he is a failed standup comedian, a veteran, and lives in texas

just tryna give a demographic snapshot since something i hear on the left is that guys like him don't actually exist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmwzGMmGcJw

simpler times

Mittens being brought out as if anyone gaf what he has to say about anything is hilarious

regarding the uniquely increasing mortality for only US middle aged white people as a demographic age group: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/you-can-t-understand-american-politics-without-reading-this-study

To put these numbers in context, this reversal is contrary to the trend in France, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and Sweden. Indeed, it goes against the trend in every wealthy, industrialized democracy we know of.

I need to read up on 1964, because Goldwater is the closest recent comparison. Not in terms of their politics, but rather a frontrunner/nominee who plainly horrified his party leadership and who inspired vigorous efforts to block him. There is also some delicious historical resonance in that one of AuH20's most prominent critics was George Romney.

Maybe this is a one-off (yeah, I know, Everything is Different Now (tm)) but I don't think there's ever been a candidate who inspired so much resistance from his own side, then went on to win.

if you don't want to read an entire book on Goldwaterism, the '64 section of Nixonland is pretty good

I kinda agree with the FB bro upthread that anything Trump tries will be stymied by Congress or the Supreme Court. And about how much worse Cruz would be. Where we split is on the whole "...thus, I'm voting Trump!" part, obviously.

Also, I never thought Morbs would be a Trump voter. Actually voting for anyone at all would scuff up his purity, and make it (incrementally) more difficult for him to post again, and again, and again, and again about how hopelessly corrupt and evil they all are.

I need to read up on 1964, because Goldwater is the closest recent comparison. Not in terms of their politics, but rather a frontrunner/nominee who plainly horrified his party leadership and who inspired vigorous efforts to block him. There is also some delicious historical resonance in that one of AuH20's most prominent critics was George Romney.

Read Before the Storm, particularly as Election Day nears and Goldwater realizes the extent of his attracting nuts, mountebanks, and imbeciles from high and low.

what kind of profession do you work in, top man in the language department? I have it narrowed down to about four.

I'm so "pure" (neon flash of ASSHOLE everytime i encounter that word in such a context) I've cast ballots in the last ten years for Barack Obama and Clintonite Bill de Blasio.

<3 morbs

what kind of profession do you work in, top man in the language department?

Architecture/construction.

http://40.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m7cg52Uerd1qdv2tto1_500.jpg

I get you, Morbs. You're an idealist in a fallen world. Yours is an unenviable burden.

Kinda the exact opposite of The Fountainhead, actually. (Which I've never seen or read, 'cause the book is too long and real movies come in color.) I work for an elevator company, so we're 100% concerned with the safety and well-being of strangers.

the weird thing to me that i kinda don't understand is that the US is not some Weimer Republic w/ out of control inflation and painful terms dictated by a recent surrender. unemployment is apparently at a two decade low, and no other country in the world has bounced back from the recession as strongly. there's obv still inequality and things that need to be fixed but these ppl are acting like this country is going down the toilet and needs some radical shakeout for its survival - it's insane. these americans must be experiencing some kind of psychotic break.

― Mordy, Thursday, March 3, 2016 4:38 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

these people listen to fox news and glenn beck all day long and read breitbart in their spare time. they've been told the us is run by a despotic secret muslim socialist using isis sleeper agents to infiltrate across the border in mexico. they're not rational.

I think it speaks to how malleable perception of whether things are "good" in "our country" or not is when immediate and basic material needs are met.

Also, any perception of things getting worse than they are/were is threatening, no matter how good the starting point.

things are getting worse in ways these empty picnic baskets cannot perceive

all i know is every small city in the state i live in (Massachusetts) is a post-industrial wasteland/ghost town with boarded up storefronts, ruined factories, and overdose rates through the roof. if that was my daily landscape, things would look pretty dead-end and grim.

I'm so "pure" (neon flash of ASSHOLE everytime i encounter that word in such a context) I've cast ballots in the last ten years for Barack Obama and Clintonite Bill de Blasio.

he’s not an absolutist, he just plays one on the internet.

Kinda the exact opposite of The Fountainhead, actually. (Which I've never seen or read, 'cause the book is too long and real movies come in color.) I work for an elevator company, so we're 100% concerned with the safety and well-being of strangers.
― the top man in the language department (誤訳侮辱), Thursday, March 3, 2016 11:53 AM (17 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i imagine this industry has its ups and downs, huh?

Yeah, but sometimes they really give the customer the shaft.

I'm floored

john mccain joining the #nevertrump campaign. if trump wins the nom, i think the dem party should try to contest every state in the country. i think adding bernie to the ticket might help as well though even without him a trump nom could equal a reagan style landslide. latinos in arizona + arizona republicans going anti-trump means arizona could flip blue imo!

bernie would be a weird VP choice. "in case i'm incapacitated, here's this 75-year-old socialist who will take over!"

idk if Bernie as VP is such a great idea - it depends on which demo Hillary's more concerned about losing: white college educated men or latinos

honestly clinton should add a liberal GOP to the ticket. to underline the "anybody but trump" thing. maybe mitt romney! or evan bayh.

Nothing in this cycle has been as frightening as Bush, with a gleam in his eye during a 2000 debate, talking about a woman on death row begging for her life, and how he sent her to her final destination. In that way, a W. or a Palin are far scarier and irrational.

the more natural vp choice for Hillary is a) somebody younger and b) from a minority demo that the Dems need to secure support from, and then c) somebody w more liberal credentials than her

i think if the argument is that there's a strong populist anti-establishment wave in the country at the moment it would be useful to take advantage of that somehow if possible.

xp a friend mentioned cory booker which seemed like another way to go on VP

hillary's VP pick should be a liberal-republican latino from the deep south.

honestly clinton should add a liberal GOP to the ticket

what's Michael Steele up to

haha

hillary's VP pick should be a liberal-republican latino from the deep south.

so... Julian Castro (almost)