Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

I kinda realized today that we will be explaining this moment to future generations who will look at us with confusion and shock no matter how this goes down. Its a unique time in american history here folks! Take copious notes!

i tell my 18-19-year-old students that they will be voting for the first time in the nuttiest presidential election in a century, and they seem confused, like this is always how it is. which of course, it is for them! but that in and of itself is crazy.

how are we ever going to go back?

― denies the existence of dark matter (difficult listening hour),

nude shots of Chris Hayes

speaking of MSNBC: I'm getting dressed and I hear "Mika" and Joe read a Peggy Noonan column allowed.

Still two more Republican debates. Maybe this happened earlier--I don't think so, I think there was still a chance that something might come up--but I felt like they officially reached the point last night where nothing they throw at Trump has any effect. Wouldn't be at all surprised if he skips the one scheduled for March 21 (don't think he'd risk March 10), or if it's cancelled altogether.

did this debate change anything? i'm trying to find results at large, and i'm seeing a bunch of 'rubio and ted stepped up and laid the smack down!' but i don't know if I believe that story

there will be maaaaybe 3 more presidential "elections"

why what's gonna happen

I will die and you will cease to exist.

That's all that future Emperor Trump will allow before he brings the whole charade to a halt.

the robots take over?

I thought Rubio's two yoga-related jokes last night were pretty great.

nothing they throw at Trump has any effect

See, in one sense that's true - his support will not wane - but you can't measure or detect future non-happenings.

No, I don't think the stop-Trump movement, #nevertrump, and Romney stuff will decrease his poll numbers or prevent him from accumulating a majority of delegates.

But it WILL ensure that when he takes the nomination with an asterisk. It won't make anyone get OFF the Trump train, but it will make some people more reluctant to get on. He'll get the nomination but come out of the convention sullied by the messy process that got him there. He'll be further diminished in the eyes of moderate middle voters, and most definitely women (many of whom found a full campaigning day devoted to dick-talk offputting). Most Democrats, and even some Carson-type Republicans who want more "civility" might be a bit more reluctant to jump on the bandwagon after the juvenile petty bullshit of the primary race.

The bickery middle-school food-fight stuff - especially added to highly publicized defections like McConnell, McCain, Sasse, NRO, etc. - makes all Republicans look bad and makes it very easy for Democrats to look dignified in comparison.

fwiw the FB friend i quoted above who was going to vote for trump if it came down to trump v clinton followed up by saying that, after last night's debate, he won't be voting at all

fivethirtyeight (i know, what is this, 2009) keeps stressing a couple things:

i. almost everyone voting for trump, pace exit polling, says they decided to vote for him months ago. nothing that has happened since january has broadened his base.

ii. a. the percentage of republican voters who actually voted for trump as their first preference, averaged over all states, is in the mid 30s. b. the percentage of republican voters, exit polled, who answered positively to 'would you be happy to vote for him if trump were the candidate' was less than 50 percent.

these are kind of reassuring things to remind yourself of, i think

it is kind of hilarious to think that trump is actually the republicans' best shot in the general (even though trump winning is extremely unlikely), seeing romney's desperate attempt to convince people to get behind cruz or rubio is so funny because i can't imagine either of them fairing any better in the general election against clinton. cruz is even more unlikable than trump and rubio is such a lightweight

If Rubio magically becomes the nominee, I am going to repost the water lunge video from the 2013 SOTU response everywhere I physically can until the day of the election.

i could watch that all day

i had to give a 45-minute presentation on wednesday and i had a tiny little plastic water bottle and it was virtually impossibly not to think of rubes whenever i took a sip

Why did they all pledge to support Trump? It undercuts their criticism. They called him a con artist after all.

― Treeship, Friday, March 4, 2016 4:12 AM (10 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Craziest part of the whole shit show.

Respect for the process is a conservative value.

on my twitter feed someone posted "why couldn't anyone have said, 'yes i'll support the nominee, since it's not going to be trump.'?" which seems the obvious evasive answer here.

Trump promising to support someone other than himself (with no conditions) also contradicted his established stance, which was that he'd support another nominee as long as he was treated "fairly"--i.e., no back-channel convention maneuvering. So if that does happen, and he runs third party, he'll now have to go back on what he said last night.

Not that it matters--doubt anyone's keeping a scorecard on Trump's veracity and consistency at this point.

It also might mean that he simply doesn't think that'll ever happen, that the nomination is already locked up.

it probably is though

"rubio is such a lightweight."

in any other year this would hardly be a disqualifying characteristic, which is I guess why I had such a hard time "dispelling with" the sense that he would eventually be the nominee. I didn't watch last night but heard that Trump called him "Little Marco." now god knows this isn't outside Trump's wheelhouse, but given the relative demographic diminutiveness of Latin Americans compared to US men (and I say this as a well-shorter-than-average US man), didn't that feel...kinda racist?

What would ever lead you to suggest such a thing about Donald Trump?

Agreed, the nominee will be Trump. He will be terrible for the party, but going against a plurality of voters to nominate someone else would be far worse.

Marcos is also right that Trump will probably do better than Cruz (whose extreme politics and negative charisma together spell general-election doom) or Rubio (whose relative charm and comparative moderation seem appealing until you notice how hollow he is).

I continue to believe it still won't be enough, given the hideous messiness of the Republican primaries plus the preexisting demographic / Electoral College headwind that any Republican would have.

(whose relative charm and comparative moderation seem appealing until you notice how hollow he is).

Reminder that GWB got re-elected (or if you want, elected).

GWB had a down-to-earth folksiness that many people liked a lot, they felt they could relate to him in a way that i am not seeing with rubio. also his reelection in 04 resulted in large part from the political climate after 9/11, and after 8 years people finally realized that he was a terrible president

GWB while also very hollow and superficially charming isn't really a great comparison to rubio imo

they are very different

gwb had a confidence that rubes clearly lacks

I'm drawing a blank on Sellers.

Here you go clem, I present to you Bakari Sellers:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/140910192426-hambycast-peter-hamby-lizards-thicket-bakari-sellers-orig-jm-00003610-story-top.jpg

Former rep in the SC legislature. Usually sits on Don Lemon's panels. I think he quite openly backs HRC, but he's no attack dog. Nuanced, sharp, and -let's face it- dreamy.

xp All after-the-fact rationalisations - the view of him through the 2000 election was "lol are you kidding me, George Bush's idiot son"? The people who felt they could relate to him came out of the woodwork afterwards, the ones who fall for Rubio's charm could do the same.

I'm not saying he's a cert, but "he's a lightweight" isn't a good reason to dismiss him - not in the general anyway.

Missed the debate. Did I hear right that after ripping on Trump these losers said they would still support him if he's nominated? Way to undercut your leverage, morons.

you heard right Josh.

current VP favourites

dem https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.122499032

gop https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.122495610

am i reading correctly that hillary has better odds of being VP than bernie? that seems off.

xxxp the feeling was akin to hearing Emily Litella's "Never mind"

actually i don't understand those odds either

gwb's wkiw factor is umpteen times higher than rubios

Would paint w/ gwb

Trump's nomination seems like a done deal, it's too late to dent that 40% or so of the GOP primary electorate that loves him. All of this desperate flailing on behalf of Romney, Rubio, Cruz, whoever else is alternately hilarious and pathetic and will change nothing, aside from maybe damaging Trump's chances in the general by dragging all of this primary nonsense out as long as possible - which will prevent the party from unifying behind their candidate and strategizing for the general. Dems won't have that problem (or at least, not as much).

att C-Towners:

Cleveland is seeking to buy 2,000 sets of riot gear, including riot-control suits and collapsible batons, as part of the city’s latest move to spend a $50 million federal security grant for July’s Republican National Convention.

The city this week posted to its contracting website a notice seeking bidders to provide the gear. City documents refer to the “Elite Defender” riot-control suit manufactured by HWI Gear and a 26-inch baton manufactured by Monadnock, plus 2,000 bags to carry them.

The city also wants to buy 310 sets of riot-control gear — long-sleeve jackets, gloves and shin guards — that would be suitable for use by police riding bicycles.

The convention, scheduled for the week of July 18, is expected to attract 50,000 visitors to Cleveland. As part of its security plan, Cleveland is organizing a police force of 5,000 officers — the city is in the process of recruiting officers from surrounding suburbs and elsewhere to bolster its existing force of about 1,200.

http://www.cleveland.com/rnc-2016/index.ssf/2016/03/cleveland_seeking_to_buy_riot.html

I present to you Bakari Sellers

Thanks--of course, I see him almost every day. Yeah, as Hillary advocates go, he's good.

on my twitter feed someone posted "why couldn't anyone have said, 'yes i'll support the nominee, since it's not going to be trump.'?" which seems the obvious evasive answer here.

This is kind of what Kasich said, which made me lol

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtl1/v/t1.0-9/12821540_10100420899990399_6572121486684051634_n.jpg?oh=af14ac898df5bc2e1f8efc8d64ae6fbf&oe=5797AA08

yup: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-donald-trump-wont-be-elected-president/2016/03/03/50dafd0e-e169-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571_story.html

keep feedin' that machine

CBS Chief Les Moonves Says Trump's 'Damn Good' For Business

"Sorry. It's a terrible thing to say. But, bring it on, Donald. Keep going."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/les-moonves-donald-trump_us_56d52ce8e4b03260bf780275

att C-Towners:

Cleveland is seeking to buy 2,000 sets of riot gear, including riot-control suits and collapsible batons, as part of the city’s latest move to spend a $50 million federal security grant for July’s Republican National Convention.

The city this week posted to its contracting website a notice seeking bidders to provide the gear. City documents refer to the “Elite Defender” riot-control suit manufactured by HWI Gear and a 26-inch baton manufactured by Monadnock, plus 2,000 bags to carry them.

The city also wants to buy 310 sets of riot-control gear — long-sleeve jackets, gloves and shin guards — that would be suitable for use by police riding bicycles.

The convention, scheduled for the week of July 18, is expected to attract 50,000 visitors to Cleveland. As part of its security plan, Cleveland is organizing a police force of 5,000 officers — the city is in the process of recruiting officers from surrounding suburbs and elsewhere to bolster its existing force of about 1,200.

http://www.cleveland.com/rnc-2016/index.ssf/2016/03/cleveland_seeking_to_buy_riot.html

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Friday, March 4, 2016 11:29 AM (19 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i'm pretty nervous about crazy shit happening in cleveland. i was just there visting family this week and my mom is not looking forward to this at all