Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

YES I USED AN 'E' AFTER THE 'G' IN JUDGEMENT, DON'T JUDGE

I judg thee

the only thing i can say on libya is that i don't know what happens in the counterfactual where NATO doesn't get involved. we know sometimes you don't get involved and it leads to horrific consequences that weigh on the ppl who said no (cf samantha powers).

Voting for the Iraq war is unforgivable. Voting for trump is more unforgivable imo

i might've missed it in the 1500+ posts on this thread but has anyone actually proposed voting for trump?

I just read some ridiculous thing from Bruce Bartlett where he said he voted for Trump precisely because he will destroy the GOP, and the GOP in its current formulation needs to suffer a humiliating electoral defeat

people's rationales are strange some times.

i guess that's an iteration of the "it has to get worse before it gets better" argument

which is always a bad argument, because it can get so, so much worse

Accelerationism and dark enlightenment claptrap are the retreats of people who think their material circumstances wouldn't be much worse in a collapse scenario, i.e. white men.

i might've missed it in the 1500+ posts on this thread but has anyone actually proposed voting for trump?

Jim Webb, today. Not sure if he might vote for Donald Trump.

tbf to Bartlett he's talking about voting for Trump in a primary to nudge the GOP to a historic defeat in the general, not trying to get him elected. TNR's Brian Beutler had a similar theory that Trump winning the nomination is necessary to reform the R's but damn if it doesn't feel too risky for comfort.

Jim Webb x-post

you ppl into forecasting etc might want to listen to Nate Silver gettin' grilled on On the Media this week

http://www.onthemedia.org/story/on-the-media-2016-03-04/

some people think forecasting is actually like looking into a christal ball

christal ball was one of trump's wives, right?

Accelerationism and dark enlightenment claptrap are the retreats of people who think their material circumstances wouldn't be much worse in a collapse scenario, i.e. white men.

― petulant dick master (silby), Friday, March 4, 2016 6:49 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i say the same thing about folks who argue that there's no or little difference between the parties. -- these aren't people who are dependent on medicaid and so forth.

that said, you're stereotyping -- plenty of white men experience precarity. in fact the fallacy that those utilizing the safety net (the one the likes of rubio and cruz would tear to shreads) are largely minorities plays into the racist fears of reactionaries...

collardio claimed the Dem lib base has been silent when POTUS proposes to murder "thousands upon thousands of innocent civilians". The lib base vigorously protested the last time this happened - the Iraq War - resulting in the largest anti-war protests EVER.

Οὖτις I appreciate your argument and have probably been too facile and rhetorically footloose (some would say: full of shit), but you do somewhat mis-paraphrase me. I didn't claim that the Dem lib base has been silent when the POTUS proposes to kill thousands etc. (and fine, i'll back down on the "upon thousands"), but rather when he does kill thousands etc. The distinction is important because yes, when GWB proposed military intervention in Iraq, the protests were massive, no doubt about it. Once the war got underway, however, the raw numbers as well as the soccer mom: crusty activist ratio decreased quite drastically. What's more, once Obama assumed power, the protests all but evaporated... even as Obama expanded the portfolio to include Yemen, Somalia, Libya, as well as greater involvement in Pakistan and of course Afghanistan.

I think my broad point is that presidents, particularly when they are Democrats, can get away with a boatload of civilian slaughter and human rights violations (I did mention indefinite detention as well) in this age of war by remote-control and volunteer armies, without ruffling all that many Democrat feathers.

i think it's just practically harder to sustain protest against the ongoing slog of empire than the imminent threat of an act of war

i guess that's an iteration of the "it has to get worse before it gets better" argument

which is always a bad argument, because it can get so, so much worse

― wizzz! (amateurist)

it's more than that- the idea that making things worse makes things better is just not right. it's like trying to lose weight by eating nothing but hardees thickburgers, on the theory that eventually you'll have a heart attack and your doctor will make you start eating healthy.

Feels like several lifetimes ago that Ben Carson's mysterious past ("He's supposed to be very good with a knife, but only in matters of business or some sort of reasonable complaint") was a big topic of concern.

Yup

Btw Trump speaking in Wichita right now, weaving Sanderisms into his speech ("By the way it's not me; we're all together") and making no pretense about identifying with the GOP ("The Republicans are eating their own")

witchita, kanasas

"Trump knows best, let's just adopt this spelling ongoing"

Have yall seen this

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/14/politics/donald-trump-medical-bill-health/

So North Korea

he's gonna have arteries so clean you're not gonna believe it

I'm hoping low dem turnout numbers is just because most people are waiting for the main event (vs. GOP numbers, where more people may be participating because they feel they can actually evince an outcome). Hoping dems will rally when the actual campaign begins, and I hope as always that congress/senate is not overlooked.

Was talking politics with friends this morning, and we noted the irony that in the event of some sort of disaster or terrorist attack when it's Trump vs. Clinton, the script has been flipped so hard that it would probably actually benefit Clinton more.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/705886964994678785

see also: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/01/how_much_does_voter_turnout_matter_112990.html

lol

"If elected, Mr. Trump, I can state unequivocally, will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency," Bornstein, an internal medicine and gastroenterology specialist who works at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York, wrote in the letter dated December 4.

Bornstein is not believed to have evaluated any past presidents.

not only is high republican turnout this year not a positive indication about general turnout but it's actually a negative indication. there's such high turnout bc the party is splitting in half and both sides (really more than 2 sides, mainstream/party republicans, trump voters, evangelical voters, with some overlaps?) are energized to try to maintain control of the party. but that passion suggests that the party won't be reconciled.

Looking at the dude, I do not believe the blood pressure figure this doctor cited

It's normally thought that turnout = enthusiasm, but it doesn't really have to be that way. The high turnout on the GOP side seems pretty explainable as desperation - the top two candidates are HATED by a large contingent of GOP voters - and low turnout on dem side could be contentment? Both dem candidates are pretty popular amongst dem voters, so many perhaps doesn't care?

surprised the doc did not add something about how trump's fingers were among the longest he'd ever seen in his long years of practice.

i find it very difficult to believe that the dem base + broader left won't turn out to keep trump or cruz out of office

gastroenterology specialist means congrats Trump you don't have Chrohn's, IBS or Barrett's Esophagus, bastion of health you!

Rubio says there's no magic number for the Supreme Court--nine, eight, seven, it's all the same. He included eight in that sequence--may need a refresher course in basic number theory.

http://www.zazzle.com/rhetorical_party_poopers_yall_tee_shirt-235076862719583508

what?! I just noticed this. DJP, thank you, I'm going to have to get this, if only to help keep my hyperbole in check.

Trump should bottle and sell his gut flora. Regardless, sure, he's probably healthier than many if not most former presidents. I mean, George Washington even had wooden teeth! Poor hygiene there, and besides, Trump would have gone gold. Much classier.

The idea that Trump is healthier than Obama was when he became president in 2009 strains credulity.

Rubio says there's no magic number for the Supreme Court--nine, eight, seven, it's all the same. He included eight in that sequence--may need a refresher course in basic number theory.

― clemenza, Saturday, March 5, 2016 12:37 PM (1 hour ago)

he's not wrong tbf

um "it's all the same" may need further examination

Louis CK:

P.S. Please stop it with voting for Trump. It was funny for a little while. But the guy is Hitler. And by that I mean that we are being Germany in the 30s. Do you think they saw the shit coming? Hitler was just some hilarious and refreshing dude with a weird comb over who would say anything at all.

And I'm not advocating for Hillary or Bernie. I like them both but frankly I wish the next president was a conservative only because we had Obama for eight years and we need balance. And not because I particularly enjoy the conservative agenda. I just think the government should reflect the people. And we are about 40 percent conservative and 40 percent liberal. When I was growing up and when I was a younger man, liberals and conservatives were friends with differences. They weren’t enemies. And it always made sense that everyone gets a president they like for a while and then hates the president for a while. But it only works if the conservatives put up a good candidate. A good smart conservative to face the liberal candidate so they can have a good argument and the country can decide which way to go this time.

Trump is not that. He's an insane bigot. He is dangerous.

He already said he would expand libel laws to sue anyone who "writes a negative hit piece" about him. He says "I would open up the libel laws so we can sue them and win lots of money. Not like now. These guys are totally protected." He said that. He has promised to decimate the first amendment. (If you think he’s going to keep the second amendment intact you’re delusional.) And he said that Paul Ryan, speaker of the house will "pay" for criticizing him. So I'm saying this now because if he gets in there we won't be able to criticize him anymore.
Please pick someone else. Like John Kasich. I mean that guy seems okay. I don't like any of them myself but if you're that kind of voter please go for a guy like that. It feels like between him and either democrat we'd have a decent choice. It feels like a healthier choice. We shouldn't have to vote for someone because they're not a shocking cunt billionaire liar.
We should choose based on what direction the country should go.

I get that all these people sound like bullshit soft criminal opportunists. The whole game feels rigged and it's not going anywhere but down anymore. I feel that way sometimes.
And that voting for Trump is a way of saying "fuck it. Fuck them all". I really get it. It's a version of national Suicide. Or it's like a big hit off of a crack pipe. Somehow we can't help it. Or we know that if we vote for Trump our phones will be a reliable source of dopamine for the next four years. I mean I can't wait to read about Trump every day. It's a rush. But you have to know this is not healthy.
If you are a true conservative. Don't vote for Trump. He is not one of you. He is one of him. Everything you have heard him say that you liked, if you look hard enough you will see that he one day said the exact opposite. He is playing you.

In fact, if you do vote for Trump, at least look at him very carefully first. You owe that to the rest of us. Know and understand who he is. Spend one hour on google and just read it all. I don’t mean listen to me or listen to liberals who put him down. Listen to your own people. Listen to John Mccain. Go look at what he just said about Trump. "At a time when our world has never been more complex or more in danger... I want Republican voters to pay close attention to what our party's most respected and knowledgeable leaders and national security experts are saying about Mr. Trump, and to think long and hard about who they want to be our next Commander-in-Chief and leader of the free world.”

When Trump was told what he said, Trump said "Oh, he did? Well, that's not nice," he told CBS News' chief White House correspondent Major Garrett. "He has to be very careful."
When pressed on why, Trump tacked on: "He'll find out.”
(I cut and pasted that from CBS news)

Do you really want a guy to be president who threatens John McCain? Because John McCain cautiously and intelligently asked for people to be thoughtful before voting for him? He didn’t even insult Trump. He just asked you to take a good look. And Trump told him to look out.

Remember that Trump entered this race by saying that McCain is not a war hero. A guy who was shot down, body broken and kept in a POW camp for years. Trump said “I prefer the guys who don’t get caught.” Why did he say that? Not because he meant it or because it was important to say. He said it because he’s a bully and every bully knows that when you enter a new school yard, you go to the toughest most respected guy on the yard and you punch him in the nose. If you are still standing after, you’re the new boss. If Trump is president, he’s not going to change. He’s not going to do anything for you. He’s going to do everything for himself and leave you in the dust.

So please listen to fellow conservatives. But more importantly, listen to Trump. Listen to all of it. Everything he says. If you liked when he said that “torture works” then go look at where he took it back the next day. He’s a fucking liar.

A vote for Trump is so clearly a gut-vote, and again I get it. But add a little brain to it and look the guy up. Because if you vote for him because of how you feel right now, the minute he's president, you're going to regret it. You're going to regret it even more when he gives the job to his son. Because American democracy is broken enough that a guy like that could really fuck things up. That's how Hitler got there. He was voted into power by a fatigued nation and when he got inside, he did all his Hitler things and no one could stop him.

Again, I’m not saying vote democrat or vote for anyone else. If Hilary ends up president it should be because she faced the best person you have and you and I both chose her or him or whoever. Trump is not your best. He’s the worst of all of us. He’s a symptom to a problem that is very real. But don’t vote for your own cancer. You’re better than that.

That's just my view. At least right now. I know I’m not qualified or particularly educated and I'm not right instead of you. I’m an idiot and I'm sure a bunch of you are very annoyed by this. Fucking celebrity with an opinion. I swear this isn’t really a political opinion. You don’t want to know my political opinions. (And I know that I’m only bringing myself trouble with this shit.) Trump has nothing to do with politics or ideology. He has to do with himself. And really I don't mean to insult anyone. Except Trump. I mean to insult him very much. And really I’m not saying he’s evil or a monster. In fact I don’t think Hitler was. The problem with saying that guys like that are monsters is that we don’t see them coming when they turn out to be human, which they all are. Everyone is. Trump is a messed up guy with a hole in his heart that he tries to fill with money and attention. He can never ever have enough of either and he’ll never stop trying. He’s sick. Which makes him really really interesting. And he pulls you towards him which somehow feels good or fascinatingly bad. He’s not a monster. He’s a sad man. But all this makes him horribly dangerous if he becomes president. Give him another TV show. Let him pay to put his name on buildings. But please stop voting for him. And please watch Horace and Pete.

Rod Dreher cries.

louis ck not too smart eh

Not smart like an Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer.

cruz just overtook rubio on the markets fwiw

good for him, that's something he can yell at his daughter through her closed doors when she refuses to come to the table for dinner

Cruzing to victory!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7XuTzIu1wc

I don't agree with everything in that Dreher article, but it definitely is an interesting point that both parties have done a lot to freeze out a large chunk of the country from the US economy, and now we are seeing the result.