Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

"but maybe the GOP at this point privileges long-term coherence (??) of their party over gaining the presidency."

to put it in other words, they're not trying to win, they're just trying not to die. probably smart, but anointing your killer as your savior, perhaps not so much.

also, for some republicans, the 20% chance that trump might win is worse than the 95% chance that cruz will lose.

that win is certainly by more than the markets expected, cruz is up ~5% to 17% on the markets in the last hour

I think markets are failing to price in the fact that they're a bunch of people guessing, and you're embarrassing yourself as a grown adult by paying them attention.

Rod Dreher cries.

i find a lot of what he writes ponderous and ill-conceived but am i wrong in finding him the most interesting right-wing writer/pundit type atm? not that it's much of a competition..

I think markets are failing to price in the fact that they're a bunch of people guessing, and you're embarrassing yourself as a grown adult by paying them attention.

― Andrew Farrell, Saturday, March 5, 2016 6:44 PM (14 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

literally anything you can read is a bunch of people guessing

what about the stuff you can't read

nate silver is currently speculating that "nice" states dislike trump and the abrasive states like him. i think it's safe to say no one knows anything about american politics in 2016.

when the markets move suddenly that's a sign that a "bunch of people" were surprised by events, that's all

if that's embarrassing you should see me after 8 beers

And he mocked Mr. Cruz, calling him “Lyin’ Ted.” He then went on to explain how that would be spelled: “L-Y-E-N. Lyin’. With a big apostrophe.”

Donaldhino

*Donaldinho

does this mean we get more canadian birther stuff?

Agreed with amateurist both that Cruz is general-election Kryptonite, and also that for some Rs, preserving party identity is a higher priority than winning the election. (One would suspect that the Supreme Court situation complicates that calculation somewhat, at least for some, but others don't see the point of pushing for conservative justices because they all turn too liberal anyway once installed, as Roberts did.)

Also dittoing will: Cruz as nominee would be pretty clarifying - yr Constitution-jizzing social-conservative deep-red Tea types could finally get a candidate of unimpeachable purity - who would then go on to lose spectacularly.

As I think I said in a prior thread, it would be even better if it were Cruz vs. Sanders: a cathartic and informative election, where we could really find out if there were more of us than there are of them, or vice versa.

Is there evidence of Sanders and Cruz interacting in the Senate?

he's not wrong tbf

― k3vin k.

If the makeup were what it is now, and one case after another ended up deadlocked, what purpose would the court serve?

Cruz adds Maine. Cruzmentum--ugh.

Didn't the governor of Maine endorse Trump last week?

As titillating as Trump's campaign has been, atm I am thinking the best case scenario on the Republican side of things would be if Cruz arrives at the convention with roughly the same number of delegates as Trump, but neither one has it sewed up on the first ballot.

Next, Cruz takes the nomination on the third or still later ballot, after a brazenly sleazy set of parliamentary maneuvers which totally alienates Trump's supporters from the party (bcz alienating people is Cruz's biggest talent). After which Cruz goes on to the general election and alienates independent voters so badly he loses in all but a dozen states and his name becomes a byword for political sleaze and gross failure for generations to come.

that would be p cool

Trump's clearly a big nickname guy (everyone knows somebody like that), and I suspect that'd continue as president. Kim Jong-un would be L'il Kim, Putin'd be Lyin' Vlad, etc.

Pooty-tang

the trump movement getting folded into cruz' schtick seems like the worst possible scenario

i like the thing louie ck write

I suspect Cruz would be the easier to beat in a general--he's a true-believer conservative, so you know what kind of a campaign to run against him, plus he's so creepy; Trump scrambles up everything, so there's an element of uncertainty--but I want to see him denied as much pleasure in this life as possible, so I always root against him.

i don't think republicans are winning this general, regardless

or if they did, something really will have happened to this country between now and then

*bad

Like a monster invasion

an inasion by monsters, totally

Monster invasion would benefit Clinton. Now, if someone blew up a Trump building ...

Speaking of which, if you live in one of his buildings, and your building namesake not only reveals himself to be an asshole of the highest order but keeps amping it up, do you feel secure? Would you want more security? Would you want to move out?

you might think 'i might soon be living in a building owned by the president'

and then you'd probably be on a list for posing that question ha :/

pwned

this building is pwned by the president

from what i read cruz is thought by dems to be easier to beat in the general because he's not such a wild card and has been far, far more clear and consistent about his ideas, and his ideas are *extremely* unpopular.

currently according to ppl watching returns closely, the louisiana vote was heavily for trump from early voting, but in actual primary day votes it's trending toward cruz - that the romney speech and debate and such has actually been damaging to trump. and that there is some sign anti-trump voters are voting tactically as romney said, supporting cruz in states he can win, and i assume will support kasich in ohio/michigan and rubio in florida. i assume the goal here is to put together enough delegates to have a brokered convention?

what is hilarious is that cruz is meanwhile not exactly on board with this plan (clearly out for himself once again proving why his colleagues hate him) and opening field offices in florida to try and knock rubio out

omg and if cruz succeeds at this and accumulates the 2nd number of delegates.. sorry to quote klein but

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/706254511661150208

The Trump-Cruz ticket is going to Make Democrats Great Again

what is hilarious is that cruz is meanwhile not exactly on board with this plan (clearly out for himself once again proving why his colleagues hate him) and opening field offices in florida to try and knock rubio out

― arts and crafts THIS GUY (daria-g),

cruz thinks he can make trump voters believe, i bet he's just going for a kill

lyin ted could become flexible ted when nothing means anything anyway

http://www.salon.com/2016/03/05/stop_laughing_democrats_as_the_gop_goes_down_in_flames_your_post_bernie_civil_war_is_almost_here/

I feel like there really is hope for an actually charismatic democratic socialist.

had dinner with my parents tonight. it was weird being able to say 'socialism' without looking over our shoulders

if only my grandpas were around ha

I really wish someone had snuck a bucket of piss into UCF Arena today and doused the ole windbag w/ it, Carrie-style.

his fans seem to be the type that would view that as a 'weak moment'

wow Cruz did way better in Louisiana than I expected (just catching up now, was out).

has to be a good sign for possible Cruz Interruptus

Trump sounds a little shaken and subdued.

good thing his GI tract is solid

back in things that actually happened, Sanders wins Kansas and Nebraska, Clinton Louisiana

Cruz closer than expected in La., won Maine as well as KS xp

thx morbz

also currently up 60-46 over Trump for delegates won for the day. Trump sucks at caucusing

Sanders pretty respectable day! my absentee ballot on the way, guessing he is who I will cast mine for.

regretting being a registered repulbican