Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

so whose turn is it to awaken Frederik B?

it's why i dislike sports

because the score changes? try soccer.

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius),

Nah. I dislike the hysteria of adults over changing scores.

well i feel the same way about hysteria over bass lines

ay no freddie, but i wish ol bern had bothered to campaign in the south. those margins are embarrassing. is his strategy to slug it out in big states and take massive blows in the south?

Bernie at a makeshift podium in some Miami patio right now

wearing the same tie he wore at the debate

was gonna say, go pick up your dad at lowe's, honey

sanders is outside applebee's

I think he wants to go to bed. That was as perfunctory a speech as I've seen

voting for sanders over trump just to save time watching presidential speeches

def. would boost the economy

He jsut finished a campaign appearance; several former students were there.

well i feel the same way about hysteria over bass lines

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius)

invest in hysteria over tan lines

85%
50.9
47.1

last third of the vote in Wayne County not in yet

Gee I hope Steve Kornacki pokes men with greater accuracy than he does that County board

heh

just doing some back of the envelope calculating here --

bernie's currently up by 32,000 votes. wayne county has 62% reported, with hillary up 24,000 votes. if she were to keep that margin, she'd pick up an additional 15,000 votes from wayne. sanders is currently up in genessee with 45% reporting, but that will probably change. the problem is no one knows which districts of wayne have reported -- that 15,000 number assumes that hillary maintains her 16% margin in wayne. if most of the remaining precints are from detroit, she could pick up more than those 15,000

tldr hillary's only shot is if the vast majority of the remaining precints are heavily favorable for her demographically, which may be true but no one knows

thanks

k3vin kornacki

does this auger well from bernie in ohio and illinois?

k3vin kornacki

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, March 8, 2016 11:03 PM (1 minute ago)

haha i just saw that he totally stole that from me

90%, lead thinning but still 50.4 to 47.6

xxp to m bison: I suppose it could. perhaps more significantly, it's like an isotope that illuminates what could be a key hrc vulnerability (if vs trump) on trade issues

discouraging for hrc if her strongest support is in presidential red states, but vs trump blue/purple states in industrial north go red.

you can get 12 to 1 for your money right now on predictit betting against bernie. if i didn't have a rooting interest i'd put 50 bucks on hillary for sure

or, against bernie, rather

margin down to 17,000

checking account emptied

Just getting home from a Raptors game--amazed at Sanders, preemptively amazed at whatever rationale Rubio comes up with tomorrow for staying in.

wow margin thinning fast

discouraging for hrc if her strongest support is in presidential red states, but vs trump blue/purple states in industrial north go red.

it's sort of playing out like the reverse of 08 where obama won all the 'red' state primaries and clinton won ohio/pennsylvania/michigan/new hampshire etc
turned out fine in the end tho

detroit vote not all counted and they count absentees last so those too prob out, not sure how much though

cruz up in the great state of idaho btw

kent county just updated, bernie 28k in the lead again

Cruz up about 11% in Idaho with 14% reporting. tho have no earthly clue as to what the remaining makeup of state is so it could be a mirage

probably a silly question but why didn't FiveThirtyEight have any forecasting data for Idaho/Hawaii?

it's sort of playing out like the reverse of 08 where obama won all the 'red' state primaries and clinton won ohio/pennsylvania/michigan/new hampshire etc
turned out fine in the end tho

Latinos to the rescue!

What's the results from Washtenaw Cty? (Ann Arbor)

56/43 for sanders with 76% reporting, according to CNN

i think that's a wrap

discouraging for hrc if her strongest support is in presidential red states, but vs trump blue/purple states in industrial north go red.

― never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Wednesday, 9 March 2016 04:10 (23 minutes ago) Permalink

doubt this is meaningful -- primary voters are a much smaller pool and not necessarily representative of general election voters

Washtenaw County
with 101 of 141 reporting (acc to NYT)
56.0% Sanders
43.2% Clinton

Bernie wins Michigan!

yeaaaah bernie

fuck yeah!

:)

Cruz with a little over 8% lead in Idaho, 25% in.

A close win is v much better than a close loss, but how will this result split the MI delegates?

CNN is estimating 41-41 but I dunno that they've updated their metrics

actually 44-43

doubt this is meaningful -- primary voters are a much smaller pool and not necessarily representative of general election voters

not necessarily, sure, but the hrc campaign would be remiss not to look into the "meaning" of this going forward, in terms of her potential ability to pull working class (esp white) votes from an anti-free trade candidate.