Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

He's not smug if you read the posts in the original Danish

http://denmark.dk/en/meet-the-danes

This is like Usenet circa '96.

PS. Bob Dole has no chance.

I'm learning so much. Did you know the Danes love hot dogs? I did not!
http://denmark.dk/en//~/media/Denmark/Images/Meet%20the%20danes/Teasers/meetthekids200.jpg?h=125&iar=1&w=200

My ex's sister and her gf who live in Copenhagen kept saying that Danes are kinda arrogant and even ruder than Finns, I guess Frederik isn't doing much in this thread to dispel that stereotype... :(

Danes do love their meat, when I've been there there were hot dog ads everywhere! Not the best country for a vegetarian traveller.

all the #narrative about hillary being shaken by stunning upset is a little much considering she won 86 delegates last night while bernie won 69

"I never in a million years thought you'd be able to gain anything from them."

NO ONE IS GAINING ANYTHING FROM THEM!

Please stop. Please?

plz guys let's just have a singalong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEwdroXuL8A

Well, the "Dewey Defeats Truman" polling/results gap would kinda be newsworthy no matter what; it IS a stunning upset, particularly if it's a bellwether for other states with similar polling. I dont think it reshapes the race in one stroke or anything, but I could buy mildly shaken, Clinton-wise.

agreed re: usenet 96

BREAKING NEWS:

Report: George W. Bush Will Not Make Another Primary Endorsement

Supposedly the worst polling in recorded primary history for MI. I think I saw that the second worst in like 88 or something (sorry id look up details but on my phone) was by +17 and this was like +24 or something?

Might be a good time for a new thread. Anyone? I can't think of any clever titles.

I mean what happened in MI was the worst in recorded primary history period in any state. Xp

Any theories as to why, Mordy?

Is it the elusive young uns?

it's possible the polls did not account for independents properly. Sanders won strongly with independents, Clinton won with democrats.

Open primaries, black voters broke more favorable towards Bernie than the model had shown in the south, iirc it is a no cell phone state for polling, generally unfamiliar political terrain this year (which is maybe a better explanation for failings on the R side). I'm sure if he hasn't yet Nate will be explaining himself shortly. Xp

Report: George W. Bush Will Not Make Another Primary Endorsement

I heard he likes "red."

Grazie

no cell phone state for polling, generally unfamiliar political terrain this year (which is maybe a better explanation for failings on the R side). I'm sure if he hasn't yet Nate will be explaining himself shortly. Xp

― Mordy, Wednesday, March 9, 2016 8:24 AM (36 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i don't even know how they are going to do polling in another 5 years

(Xp)

It seems like Hillary's team is better at this than conventional pollsters. They knew the polls were not representative (probably bc their internal polling was much different).

Xxp By drone

Future polling will be an all-darts/psychic octopus method.

also i think this is my first actual use of flag post not goofing around and saying "flag past" as a joke, feels good man

Future polling will be an all-darts/psychic octopus method.

― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, March 9, 2016 8:27 AM (29 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i wonder about some kinda creepy tracking your facebook, google, likes all that algorithim stuff? who knows

i saw something where they can track where your eyes actually go on a webpage and make "heat maps" of pages etc

i dunno something creepy probably

some pollsters are already doing that first part iirc?

i don't even know how they are going to do polling in another 5 years

i'm guessing analytics teams will just pay facebook/google/amazon for a subset of their user data and go from there. why bother trying to contact someone when you can just see if they liked a bernie sanders related post on facebook or googled for voter registration information

i wonder about some kinda creepy tracking your facebook, google, likes all that algorithim stuff? who knows

i saw something where they can track where your eyes actually go on a webpage and make "heat maps" of pages etc

i dunno something creepy probably

massive whoops, i didn't see you'd already posted that. so yes, i agree!

fivethirtyeight (but not silver):

Bernie Sanders made folks like me eat a stack of humble pie on Tuesday night. He won the Michigan primary over Hillary Clinton, 50 percent to 48 percent, when not a single poll taken over the last month had Clinton leading by less than 5 percentage points. In fact, many had her lead at 20 percentage points or higher. Sanders’s win in Michigan was one of the greatest upsets in modern political history.

Both the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus and polls-only forecast gave Clinton a greater than 99 percent chance of winning. That’s because polling averages for primaries, while inexact, are usually not 25 percentage points off. Indeed, my colleague Nate Silver went back and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic primary in New Hampshire, was even on the same scale as this upset. In that contest, the polling average had Walter Mondale beating Gary Hart by 17 percentage points, but it was Hart who won, with slightly more than 9 percentage points over Mondale.

i sort of get why a 'win' is emphasized for the purposes of having a media narrative but calling any of these a 'win' seems a bit hollow when they award proportionally

Ratings.

That's why I think some of the media complaints that they are in the bag for Hillary are a little hard to believe (though I don't doubt there are real examples). Their primary bias is to have an exciting race to cover which means they're more likely ime to tout an underdog challenger just to make it more interesting.

ultimately despite all the sometimes heightened bad feelings being engendered by the democratic race, unlike the GOP which seems to represent the total collapse of their house of cards, all the issues being brought to the surface in the democratic debate are ultimately healthy ones:

the fact that there's a large left wing in the party that's been ignored for too long, the debate of pragmatism and getting things done in the realities of washington vs. what constitutes a fundamental selling out of the party's values, the long-simmering disconnect between white progressives and progressives of color and other communities, etc etc etc, and though i mean it's a presidential race and it gets a ugly at times, i don't think either clinton or sanders has caustically attacked the other like the republican candidates have, and there's certainly times with both candidates have seemed to learn from events during the campaign and adjusting their messages.

where as the GOP just seems like some high school assholes playing the dozens

That's why I think some of the media complaints that they are in the bag for Hillary are a little hard to believe (though I don't doubt there are real examples). Their primary bias is to have an exciting race to cover which means they're more likely ime to tout an underdog challenger just to make it more interesting.

― Mordy, Wednesday, March 9, 2016 10:18 AM

Never 4get 2012 when pundits said it was gonna be a nailbiter through Election Day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyONt_ZH_aw&sns=em

Idk why no one has tried to torment Trump with a million steak puns yet. "Would you stake your reputation on that, Mr. Trump?" "Look, I know you are trying to stake your position as the anti-immigration candidate." "Oh, raising the stakes again I see?" A candidate could just go on and on and then play dumb when Trump complains about it. They coud also torment him by punning on his name a lot. Many possibilities

I agree with u.m.s., this dem primary has been good for the country all around

trump aside, just the concept of buying steaks at the sharper image is the funniest thing that has ever happened

xp yes but has it been good for ilx?

many xps - Abbasolutely agree that it's good that we're having this conversation no matter what happens.

Also otm is this from Mordy: "primary bias is to have an exciting race to cover." P much. The Story Needs To Change.

Hillinevitability was a story, which needed to change to Unexpected Surge of Populist Challenger. Which needed to change to WTF? A Socialist Has No Chance, which needed to change to OMG Can He Really Have a Chance? Which needed to change to Clinton Fights Sanders Insurgency, which needed to change to Sanders Closing The Gap, which needed to change to Clinton Roaring Back, which needed to change to ZOMG Sanders Scores Major Upset, which will change to But She Still Leads in Delegates, which will change again and again until there's no story anymore and we'll be off chasing another set of squirrels.

Of course Everything's Different Now(tm). But I recognize this rhythm, and I went to journalism school 20 years ago.

http://stargayzing.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/l-6llaeq8321uo1z.jpg

Curious as to how Clinton reacts to last night. She doesn't need to be rattled, but she may be--and if she's rattled she may overreact and start attacking hard, and if that happens, that could backfire. She tended to run the 2008 campaign minute to minute, Annie Oakley and all that; assume she'll be more disciplined this time.

I don't think she should panic. She has the delegate lead and she earned more delegates last night. It might be troubling for her that rust belt states are trending Bernie (though last night was a near tie in MI since it's representational delegates) but big states like PA or FL are closed primaries which should help her. March 15th might be rough for her-- I assume she'll win missouri and north carolina, and if she can keep it close in (or win some of) OH, IL and FL she'll be in good position.

The Bernie case is a little harder to make since (I know I'm a broken record) at this points he needs more than momentum to overtake the earned delegate lead - the argument in his favor is that he is trending up so it's not impossible to believe that he captures such a groundswell that he starts blowing her out in some of his more favorable states.

Washington Post: 16 negative stories about Bernie Sanders in 16 hours

we did that one Monday, i think

I do think it's important that Trump has yet to get a majority of support in any of his states. He's been pretty consistent in that regard.

xp whoops, thread moves fast, sorry