Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

guys is trump president yet

No Nate silver is :-(

good post caek

Caek, you're obviously sorta right, since they've changed the model. But I think you're wrong about the problem lying with the handicapping of the polling firms. There wasn't a single poll that gave Sanders a shot, so how would ranging them differently change the outcome? Yeah, there were structural problems, most likely mainly that Michigan haven't had a contested primary for a long time, so it was a lot harder than other states.

The guys whose careers are over thx to trump = jebra, rubio, christie (sorta)

Rand paul's still in the senate and chuckles can still play bass. Santorum idk what he does.

http://img.wonkette.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/santorum_immigration_lady.jpg

ILEagels

"Go" home

Related to the topic of listening to minorities: http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/08/spotlight-arab-american-muslim-voters-engage-issues/81486692/

xps caek- i agree that his specification of the models (there are two) and any prior is subjective. but it's not clear to me that he fed in any priors to make the model extra certain of a hillary win, and the suspicion is obviously politically motivated and imo makes some people look partisan and dumb. i don't know how much tinkering goes on on a day-to-day basis but i always assumed little to none and he just kind of sets it up and lets it rip

why am i saying "obviously" too confident? why is this not just "if you make 100 predictions with 99% confidence, you're going to be wrong about once"? the answer is the same reason that far more than 1 in 20 psychology papers that claim p<0.05 are wrong. the defense is true as far as it goes, but that's how you explain away random noise, i.e. statistical fluctuations. but the problems are systematic, not random. i don't think anyone is arguing unlucky random samples is what went wrong with the polls. i mean it could be what went wrong (there is a non-zero probability that 5 polls with 3 percent uncertainties could all be wrong in the same direction by 20% or so), but i think everyone is right in assuming there were _systematic_ problems. and it's concern about those systematic errors that should be in silver's priors and in the resulting confidence of the model.

but not all systematic errors can be accounted for with the data at hand, that's the #1 problem everyone who uses non-experimental data faces. i think it's quite obvious his model is wildly underspecified with lots of omitted variables bias (they basically admit this on the first paragraph of the 538 site explaining how they set up the primary forecast) and so the interpretation of a p-value is kind of out of the window either way. i don't think other specifications with the same data would have given drastically results. like, what weighting scheme do you use to not have a confident bet that clinton would win using this data?

http://i.imgur.com/2LQVIQt.png

christ you guys

^^^

what?

Pataki! I forgot about him.

Pataki got lots of undercover that's coming at me iirc

I can't believe we're discussing models and stats and -- leave that to Nate and the Silvers

Alfred otm, separate thread pls

i personally scroll past discussion on threads that don't interest me but ok

It's getting very technical, but it's pretty relevant. The main question is what this means for the polling in Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, where Clinton is also far ahead. Was this a one-off, or is there some 'systemic' problem that means every poll in the midwest has hidden around 25% of Sanders' voters?

It's also theoretical, because afaict, he still wouldn't win the primary.

in the interest of keeping it to one-thread-per-month tho...

xp

I can quote more old AZ lyrics if that would help foster the dialogue

lol

Latest poll from Illinois has Clinton ahead 42%. I can def see that be wrong by a lot more than 25%

Obamaland

keep the stats talk on here, it's more meaningful than (insert passive aggressive swipe of your choice here)

CNN reporting
Rubio on reports he's dropping out of the race: "I'm rap James Bond/my crack case gone/got cuffed in the court/had my Mack face on"

i can see the polling stats stuff being interesting because it does, purposefully or not, affect narrative and turnout. but on the other hand, all you really have to do is wait for the actual voting results

still think prediction markets are garb tho, despite my <3 for caek

I dig this, using a John Wayne spoken-word album to distill down a lot of the psychology of what happens when your sense of identity, belonging, and stability gets violently ruptured:

White working-class nostalgia, explained by John Wayne

In a little over a generation, right-leaning, working-class whites went from defining America — being the standard, the base model, the hard-working, self-reliant American dream made flesh, about which kitschy songs are written — to being, in their view, an embattled minority.

Their social values are mocked and rejected by mainstream pop culture, and they are condescended to and dismissed by elites. Rightly or not, they've come to view immigrants, other ethnicities, and often liberals as competitors in a zero-sum fight.

They are pissed off and panicky about it, and while we need not accept the uglier forms the backlash takes, we should still acknowledge the unique angst that results when the communities that most value order are struck by the most dislocation.

'But white working-class Americans (like all Americans) should be offered some shelter from those changes, some sense that they will be okay, that they are still part of the American Us, no matter what.'

Honestly the problem seems to me more that the Trumpits don't consider the new 'American Us' to be legitimate. They've fought tooth and nail to exclude as many people as possible from the old 'American Us', and they still aren't ready to accept reality. I don't think the new 'American Us' will be particularly inclined to forgive them, btw. Sad, but true. Also, I don't particularly think they have to, pragmatically speaking.

And I think the article is pretty a-historical. It glosses over that the self-same white right-wing voters has supported the politicians that took away things they used to have, that the new deal coalition fought for. And why did they vote for this? Why did the democratic new deal coalition lose white working class voters for a generation, even though republicans did nothing for them? Because of civil rights.

Please don't use the word "us"

Lol, that's really hard when discussing an article talking about it. Combined with the fact that I put 'us' in '''s, and that I don't particularly care what you think = nah.

http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-i-don-t-care-what-you-think-unless-it-is-about-me-kurt-cobain-43-19-27.jpg

Can we just autoreplace all frederik's posts on this thread w something less patronizing like idk pics of puppies

Xxpost

You're so repellant, nothing you write is rooted in any sort of genuine empathy for other human beings just ego. Empty

https://41.media.tumblr.com/0ab606aad700002f18b6d8c90243deba/tumblr_o330iyQXpP1v61c3io1_500.jpg

what a bitch

ums, I have plenty of empathy, but no, not for you. Not anymore.

I also don't consider white racists a particularly good signpost for how much empathy one has.

Oh you never did you bullshit artist

i have no skin in this beef but uhhhh ums is one of the nicest dudes to engage w/ on ILX and also one of the funniest so perhaps if you're pickin' a fight w/ him where he reacts this angrily you might want to examine yr role in it?

idk

xxxpost

btw I did lol at the AZ post upthread

The most hilarious thing ums has written was some nonsense about him flagging a post for the first time. He has said that I've defended nazi imagery, was worse than trump, is 'repellent', and devoid of empathy. Yeah, really fucking nice.

tempted to start a mattress-style 'does *anyone* want frederik on this thread' poll

xpost sure seems like you "don't care what he thinks"

xxp

you've gotta be a gabbneb sock or something

either way I sincerely hope u get temp banned soon

xxpost yeah dude when you cherrypick 'nasty' posts a dude has made and the only overarching thing they have in common = that they're about you specifically I would say maybe that should tell you something.

I like having varying viewpoints but this thread is at its worst when it veers into the armchair ethnic studies/sociology courtesy of frederik and gabbneb

Alfred this is what happens when you shut down the stats talk bro

This is his very first response to me:

'Lmao Frederick you were the Ice Age nazi imagery apologist iirc don't make me pull your card

Number 2 GEE I WONDER WHY it might be easier to achieve socialism in a very small, racially homogeneous country than the US, given your extensive knowledge of history what do you think?

― robbie ca$hflo (upper mississippi sh@kedown), 7. marts 2016 14:38 (3 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink'

Just ridiculous poorly informed generalizations about various subgroups, its gross

Xxp