Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

the predictwise guy has run some back of the envelope stuff on a contested convention

There is a 46% chance of a second ballot. There is 74% likelihood that Donald Trump wins the nomination, 13% for Ted Cruz, and 11% for John Kasich. Assume that Trump is the only person that can win nomination on the first ballot. Here is a quick and dirty estimate to consider:

54% that Trump wins on the first ballot
20% that Trump wins on the second or more ballot
13% that Cruz wins on the second or more ballot
11% that Kasich wins on the second or more ballot
1% that Paul Ryan wins on the second or more ballot

Which means Trump is about 45% to win, should the nomination be contested. And, if not, he is about 50% likely to try to run as an independent or minor party candidate.

david plouffe on fox news: "it may be coming down to trump and cruz.. which is like choosing between hemlock and cyanide, for the GOP establishment"

i seriously think daily exposure to the sound and image of Clinton or Trump for 4 years will shorten my precarious lifespan.

Brutal day for Bernie :(

You can just unplug your cable Morbs

Oh, Kasich. There's a difference between "being boring in comparison to Trump" and "being so boring you get on national TV and repeatedly use the phrase 'credit rating agencies.'"

chris matthews just said that american politics is too "predictable, it's paint by numbers"

Could someone plz paint Matthews? Preferably in the style of that poor unfortunate girl at the beginning of Goldfinger.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KACb_Rizb8E

what was that creepy thing he said about wives wearing the dress she hasn't worn in six months

ugh no

just no

Being rent-poor and leaking cash from onerous cancer treatment copays, i haven't had cable in 4 or 5 years, silby.

Hillary's speech reminded me of Frank Drebin's address at the end of The Naked Gun 2 1/2:

I want a world where Frank Jr, and all Frank Jrs can sit under a shady tree, breathe the air, swim in the ocean, and go into a 7-Eleven without an interpreter. I want a world where I can eat a sea otter without getting sick, where the Democrats put somebody forward worth voting for.

Looks like hillary's running the table

based on your exit polling

lol Al

I don't even know what to say about this whole shitshow anymore, except that Trump v Hillary! is going to be a feast

still think we have a major summer surprise coming

Indictment or murder at the GOP convention or both?

i decline to say what or which party

i've seen chatter on twitteronia that there's some big story that might damage cruz and trump that the media is sitting on but it's only chatter, idk

also, still like hillary a lot you guys. go hillary

still think we have a major summer surprise coming

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius),

look at you aligning with Krauthammer

Lol

what do your FBI sources tell you? Krauthammer's been giggling and smirking about Impending Indictments since August.

i don't waste parts of my life keeping up with that insane shit, Alfred, but go vacuuming for a few months and take the Pelosi Democrat with you

oh so it's Pelosi Democrats who are the trouble now

we are all about to waste our time with much more insane shit thrown in our faces all summer Morbs

Soon we'll be needing to worry about Hillary's supporters' well-being. Hard to picture them matching the Trumpiacs in a brawl.

trump is onstage with the guy who assaulted that reporter?

Actually it's easy to picture them in a brawl, it's definitely going to happen. Stay away from Trumpiacs, Daria.

xpost That's his main campaign adviser!

not afraid of trumpiacs, grew up in a county full of em

that is in fact trump's campaign manager who assaulted a (friendly!) journalist, denied it, attacked her character, had the candidate say she made it up, and it was all on video just as she said. and putting him onstage right now and congratulating him by name is deliberate

Morbz hates pelosi now too?

Trumps stump speech is basically Charlie sheen talking politics

Yeah the campaign manager nod was gross

So just to clear things up, Kasich win in Ohio means Trump cannot get enough delegates to win the nomination?

look at the short guy in back who has to keep moving back and forth because he can't see over the campaign manager's shoulder

man I'm really scared of Nice Trump

well that group of smirking white guys certainly represented all of america there

don't be scared, organize

trump has said and done enough already to have by far the most negative approval ratings of all the candidates (and it's not even close) and the democrats haven't even BEGUN to drop oppo research on him

all the audio of him saying hateful and degrading things about women
can't walk back the comments on mexicans, muslims, etc..

i mean i'm uncomfortable with this because he's a wild card and i don't even like the idea of him being nominated but he has the worst negatives, if there's anything that will drive overwhelming democratic turnout, it's this guy

So just to clear things up, Kasich win in Ohio means Trump cannot get enough delegates to win the nomination?

no, he can still get enough

Morbz hates pelosi now too?

hate would be pretty strong, she's just a good party soldier/traffic cop

i know you love her getting floor votes for progressive bills she knows will lose tho. very important.

re walls, the more you poll

https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/709913295482793985

i've been scared of Nice Trump for months just as a spectre but

don't be scared, organize

^^^

Republicans are gonna back Trump hard imo

yep

even though he will govern like a liberal

lol yeah cops under president trump will be super liberal

because cops will be governed by Trump?

by govern I mean his positions will be way more liberal, not by the amount of people he has lined up and shot or put in the Gulag

good god he's such a fucking buffoon

i tend to include the gulag in my estimation of people's liberalism

i know you love her getting floor votes for progressive bills she knows will lose tho. very important.

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius),

I know you refuse to understand how politics works. Sometimes you vote on shit that you know won't get passed, other times you vote on shit because your constituents threaten to withhold support, still other times you do the heavy lifting for voters like you too pure to be seen supporting a cause or candidate that might embarrass them