Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

love Grayson so much, he could potentially make for the kind of straight-talkin charismatic leftie that could win a general election, when the time is right

― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, March 16, 2016

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/us/politics/alan-graysons-double-life-congressman-and-hedge-fund-manager.html?referer=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FjFp15qqKE6&_r=2

hmm

I liked him too.

he's a world class asshole

So despite an extremely aggressive bunch Sanders of election staff and volunteers here in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, Clinton won the county 62-38. Ouch.

fun nightmare scenario I cooked up yesterday over dinner: in response to threats of violence & other acts of intimidation by organized militiae of Trump supporters (* possibly including false-flag operations, planted by the Republican party's terrified mainstream in its death throes? "to the last I grapple with thee, from Hell's heart," etc), President Obama goes on TV to announce that the election will be postponed in the interest of 'national security,' leading to open rioting, lots of bluster, & at least one attempted coup before Hillary Clinton is able to take the reins of power as O's handpicked successor

nobody is going to postpone the election

I know dude it was a goofy nightmare scenario jeeze lay off

... basically what I'm saying is, our window of time to find a producer for this screenplay is extremely limited

Oh god no, he cleared up on the per-district delegates for Missouri and Illinois - I think he's further ahead of his projected path than before.

no, he's now just behind: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

the fact that everyone is behind their targets is why they is a non-negligible chance of a contested convention. but that depends on the other two candidates not dropping out and remaining viable at the polls.

I loooove 538's illustrations of the GOP candidates.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/images/trump-full.pnghttp://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/images/cruz-full.pnghttp://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/images/kasich-full.pnghttp://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/images/rubio-full.png

grayson is fucking irritating

Don't think I've ever seen cruz without him mouth open before.

yes he's irritating and jerky but he's OUR irritating jerk
xpost

The CNN anchor, going over demographics from last night, described the upcoming Trump-Clinton election as "Angry white voters against...pretty much everyone else." The ellipsis represents a discernible pause.

xpost Ha, this season is totally like a band struggling in the studio with the tour dates already booked, or a movie scrambling with rewrites and reshoots with opening day locked in.

Whoever ends up president, they'll be lots of lore for years. "Oh, you should have seen the first draft." "I heard the demos, they were great, they just got overproduced." "The director's cut was awesome before the studio took it away from them and recut it."

"There'll be," sorry.

We'll all be sorry.

Cruz looks like LBJ and Pat Buchanan melted together in that illustration (and perhaps irl?).

Hillary just won a ton of states outside the "Old South" last night

The Grayson piece seems optimistic to me too but Ohio is the only non-Southern state that she won decisively last night. IL and MO were virtually tied in delegate count. I would think that Sanders definitely needs to do better than tie states, though, considering that NY is very likely to go to HRC.

FL + OH are the two biggest swing states in a general election, so the "she only succeeds in republican states" is a misrepresentation

she has a substantial delegate lead at this point, and since democrats don't have winner-take-all primaries, sanders would have to score a series of big victories - not just surprisingly squeaking by to a victory like in Michigan - in order to make it up before the convention.

Marco Rubio ends bid for president: 'It was not God's plan for me to win’

Cruel God! - why didn't he tell Marco months ago?... think of the money he would have saved...

Getting faced by god like that gotta make a man question his faith.

"It wasn't God's plan for me to win" sounds like a country song.

I've never understood this tack of "Hillary can't win because her strength is in Republican states where Dems won't win anyway." You could say the same thing about Sanders winning in states where Democrats ARE going to win anyway. The relevant question is who's going to win the swing states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa,.... I think Clinton looks strong in those states, especially the biggest ones.

There's a more nuanced version of the argument that's more compellling -- that Clinton is doing better in closed-primary states, where independents (who favor Sanders, and who matter in the general) are excluded. But not as many people are making that argument.

I'm really mad at a friend who just had to renew their drivers license recently and switched their voter registration to Independent while doing so. "I wanted to be more honest about my political beliefs. I
m a little bummed I won't get to vote for Bernie." That's understandable, but couldn't you have waited until after the primaries? Or just carried on as a Dem for another 8 years and no one would even give a shit?

Pardon me, I'm having a private message Facebook brawl with a good friend who called Sanders a Jacobin and a crazy man yelling in the streets and has posted reams of link showing how trade deals have actually been good for forcing Columbia and Mexico to care about the environment.

eephus, people certainly made that argument in 2008, i.e., that Clinton won more Democrats (and Dem-stronghold states) than Obama.

I've never understood this tack of "Hillary can't win because her strength is in Republican states where Dems won't win anyway." You could say the same thing about Sanders winning in states where Democrats ARE going to win anyway. The relevant question is who's going to win the swing states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa,.... I think Clinton looks strong in those states, especially the biggest ones.

There's a more nuanced version of the argument that's more compellling -- that Clinton is doing better in closed-primary states, where independents (who favor Sanders, and who matter in the general) are excluded. But not as many people are making that argument.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, March 16, 2016 10:09 AM (24 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Almost no argument trying to extrapolate general election results from primary results means anything, and a lot of these arguments are especially bad.

wd love to see more republicans coming out against trump, but at the same time, nobody really wants a repeat of 1824's "corrupt bargain" debacle

Rick Scott announces that he endorses Trump. Happy?

hey, 1824 was a p good year for me

oh no, not 1824! All the STDs.

54% that Trump wins on the first ballot
20% that Trump wins on the second or more ballot
13% that Cruz wins on the second or more ballot
11% that Kasich wins on the second or more ballot
1% that Paul Ryan wins on the second or more ballot

I think the predictwise guy putting numbers on 1) something that hasn't happened in a century (?) and 2) involves a wide spectrum of loony flailers suggests that this is on a par with astrology.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8

time for a new thread? this one is becoming impossible to load.

Impossible to believe too.

impossible to keep my food down too

If you're trying to load the entire thread every time you click on it, you're ILXing wrong.

post less

flappy bird just use bookmarks

[Grayson]'s a world class asshole

This matches what I've heard about him.

It moves so fast that if you slumber just a little bit, it's hard to see the posts immediately prior to the current convo without loading all 5,000+.

Somehow I wound up on Grayson's email list, and I know this isn't the best measure but he comes off as the opportunistic douchebag.

*an

It moves so fast that if you slumber just a little bit, it's hard to see the posts immediately prior to the current convo without loading all 5,000+.

No really - bookmark is for this.

I think the predictwise guy putting numbers on 1) something that hasn't happened in a century (?) and 2) involves a wide spectrum of loony flailers suggests that this is on a par with astrology.

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, March 16, 2016 12:34 PM (21 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

well yeah, but when your predictions are 50/50 which is what he's saying the chance of a contested convention is, and what he's saying the chance of trump winning in the second or later round, he's not actually making very strong claims. so i guess in that sense you're right, it is like astrology.

loved bernie but relieved the dem contest is effectively over

extra time to get used to the worst election ever

2000 is a high standard but i think we can do it