Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

godwins law personified

well that was a totally gross post caek thx
xp

er wait that was meant for the NRO thread

no you should post that everywhere

let it be known

i didn't realize caek had such strong opinions about slovenia

http://ktar.com/story/979602/phoenix-mayor-requests-federal-investigation-into-long-voter-wait-times/

what a mess

Panic:

Even without a controversial presidential candidate to contend with, Senate Republicans face a challenging map. Fresh off reclaiming the majority for the first time in eight years, the GOP now faces the daunting prospect of defending 24 of the 34 Senate seats that are up for grabs this November, largely because the six-year terms for the many Republicans who swept into office in the 2010 elections have come due.

The party can afford to lose only three seats to stay in the majority, and at least two incumbents are already facing difficulties: Sens. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), whose state is seen as a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who is struggling in the polls. Five more GOP seats are up for grabs in states that President Obama won twice, including some, like Pennsylvania, by comfortable margins.

Loud foot­steps up­stairs in the pres­id­en­tial race could eas­ily shake the Sen­ate races be­low,” veteran analyst Charlie Cook wrote this week, adding that if the GOP loses the White House by a larger margin than it did in 2008 or 2012, “hanging onto the Sen­ate would be a long shot at best.”

If Trump is the nominee, Democrats have already signaled that they plan to try to link him to every Republican running this fall. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has rolled out a “Party of Trump” campaign dubbing GOP candidates as “Retrumplicans.

if the Dems aren't outspent

lol @ Retrumplicans

It's catchy

also sounds kinda like Replicant

has there been any more reports on trumps fundraising?

I know PACs are a thing, but if you dont have establishment support how can you draw down the 1-2 billion its gonna take to run nationwide?

"Donald, you're a sniveling coward, and leave Heidi alone."

I hate these moments where you have to agree with someone you despise--although it's worth noting it took Cruz a couple of days to get there, and no doubt a few consultants whispering in his ear: "Get outraged! People love that stuff."

200 million of his own money plus 800 million in free coverage that he gets by tweeting dumb things that are then covered by most media outlets, plus every show begging him to be a guest?

i'm being sort of facetious but he gets exposure from the media in ways that other candidates can't

but that doesnt fund GOTV operations anywhere

200 million doesn't pay for GOTV? (honestly i have no idea what portion of campaign $ goes directly to GOTV as opposed to advertising and pizza)

isn't this basically what the convention's gonna be about, whether the GOP $$$ org is willing to get behind him (they will, imo)

was listening to a news story about donald trump's having repeatedly sued journalists who criticized him (all of the suits were tossed out of court). what a fucking baby. why are authoritarians always such whiners?

it's what makes them want to be authoritarians!

one day they'll show all those jerks, they'll all be begging for mercy...

you know, trump really combines every venal trait a human being can have, it's almost impressive.

http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/03/attacking-heidi-cruz-for-her-depression-is-a-disgraceful-move.html

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DiLMg7LwCNg/Vncjyx1i_BI/AAAAAAAAhDU/TjSnwCGJjOY/s640/When%2Bboth%2Bparties%2Bhate%2Byou%2B.%2B.%2B..jpg

Gotta ask once more: is this a tipping point for Trump? Almost a year of evidence says not a chance. But you never know.

at this point if he made obscene gestures when bringing up cruz's wife at a debate, i don't think it would harm his appeal to the 15% (?) of the electorate that has latched onto him.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-is-shocking-vulgar-and-right-213572

About 15 years ago, I said something nasty on CNN about Donald Drumpf’s hair. I can’t now remember the context, assuming there was one. In any case, Drumpf saw it and left a message the next day.
“It’s true you have better hair than I do,” Drumpf said matter-of-factly. “But I get more pussy than you do.” Click.

so slate runs an article (rightly) talking about how trump's horrendous misogynist bullshit is the worst sort of poison

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/donald_trump_has_one_core_philosophy_misogyny.html

Drumpf wants us to know all about his sex life. He doesn’t regard sex as a private activity. It’s something he broadcasts to demonstrate his dominance, of both women and men. In his view, treating women like meat is a necessary precondition for winning, and winning is all that matters in his world. By winning, Drumpf means asserting superiority. And since life is a zero-sum game, superiority can only be achieved at someone else’s expense.

and then, slate being slate, they follow it up with reductionist "let's beat him with sex" pseudo lysistrata clickbait.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2016/03/23/vote_trump_get_dumped_campaign_asks_women_to_stage_a_sex_strike_against.html

Going after Cruz's wife seems some Nixon-attacking-Muskie shit

American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump.

riiiight

is it too much to hope for an actual trump/cruz duel

With pistols or rapiers?

Or, given their level of decorum, matching pairs of BBQ tongs?

dude you are making me take the side of tucker carlson.

did you actually read the article? he's a horrible asshole who supports trump.

Poor old USA, this campaign is one of the most repulsive and embarrassing spectacles I've ever witnessed (at a safe distance, thank God).

is it too much to hope for an actual trump/cruz duel

a sword fight, if you know what i mean

Drumpf wants us to know all about his sex life. He doesn’t regard sex as a private activity. It’s something he broadcasts to demonstrate his dominance, of both women and men. In his view, treating women like meat is a necessary precondition for winning, and winning is all that matters in his world. By winning, Drumpf means asserting superiority. And since life is a zero-sum game, superiority can only be achieved at someone else’s expense.

otm

lol cruz's "call out" of trump complete with pointing, what a nerd

God damn it Cruz, tell the public that you will never support that yammering asswipe's presidential campaign in a million years. Don't let the GOP do you like that.

keep in mind that most of the GOP is going to support nominating a guy who has publicly mocked his opponent's wife's mental illness on social media.

truly the expression "i can't even" has never been more apt

so can someone explain the Polls-Plus method on 538 for me? cos it's now updated Cruz has a 45% chance to win Cali, and yet the only new poll that came out was one that ended before Rubio dropped out and still shows Trump ahead. I realize it's meant to show a range of possibilities, but it seems weird that this model forecasts him as a slight frontrunner when not a single CA poll from 2016 has him closer than a 5 point deficit. are they possibly doing the math of Rubio-transfer?

"polls plus" attempts to model the effect of endorsements as well as polls, and cruz has had a ton of these.

presumably the modeling is based on data from 2012, etc., when an endorsement was a good thing for a GOP candidate

got it - thanks!

I have a feeling the Convention is going to be one of the most hilarious spectacles that I nonetheless have no desire to be within a 50 mile radius of

i think "polls plus" uses state demographics too, in the sense that it incorporates results from demographically similar primaries earlier in the cycle?

but endorsements are probably the big effect in CA. they'll dominate the polls plus in states with very little polling like CA.

i feel really bad for cleveland right now. can they back out of the convention and give to, i dunno, the bahamas?

move it to guantanamo bay

is this a tipping point for Trump?

the latest polling showing him at like a 70% unfavorable rating among women voters might be. i am becoming more and more doubtful of trump being nominated. i think they'll find a way to push him out at the convention, assuming they can keep him short of the 1237 delegates on the first ballot. been reading a lot of stories indicating that trump's people aren't organized w/r/t who is selected as a delegate and procedures at the convention

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ted-cruz-gains-in-louisiana-after-loss-there-to-donald-trump-1458861959

While Mr. Trump leads in winning primary and caucus elections, and has won more delegates, the Cruz campaign is proving superior at the arcane game of picking the people who will be the actual delegates to the convention, where they will help write the rules and ultimately choose the nominee.

i agree, not nominating Trump is the lesser disaster. if they can keep him short and don't fuck it up...