Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

better than what Trump would say, which is "my dick's too big"

Great!

be interesting to see what Trump's handling of the assault sitch does to his polling in Wisconsin. not a major mover, probably, but given that Cruz's odds are rising there and he's the favorite in 538's eyes, and that women hate him, it probably won't help.

granted though I'm sure he's more focused on the fact that he's so far ahead in NYC, but Cali is gonna be a big play too.

Cruz the first candidate I've ever seen quote Sonny Bono, politician. Weird, but, um, I think I like it.

Trump seems coked up tonight, more than normal.

Love the old man behind trump staring daggers at him.

That last answer was some kind of legerdemain, and he actually (or at least I thought) managed to make it sound credible: he no longer promises to support the nominee, and neither does he want Cruz's support if he wins, because he saw how agonizing it was for Cruz to have to say that, and he doesn't want Cruz to feel compelled to do something that he doesn't feel in his heart of hearts.

(He didn't actually say "heart of hearts," that was my flourish.)

Very very
Many many

It's funny how obvious it is that Ivanka's his favorite kid

"Hey, Don. Put it on a t-shirt and then shut the fuck up. Ok?"

"Put it on a t-shirt? Saayyyyy....."

http://i.imgur.com/ZTdHoJc.jpg

Totally a guy named Don

so glad he was immediately able to partake in the festivities after his 30 year cryofreeze

wow this townhall w/trump is a 100% complete trainwreck

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CexAfu2WsAALz5B.jpg

COOPER:
http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/736x/fe/c0/17/fec017a47e1763fa802a827f072f5d0a.jpg

TRUMP:
https://iconicphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/diane_arbus_child_toy_hand.jpg

Wait is that real (the transcript) am I dumb did that happen

I don't put anything past or below Drumpf but how did I miss this

amazed that this seems to be real

Rience Priebus in empty suit shocker.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/30/donald-trump-revokes-pledge-to-support-republican-nominee

The headline's a little inaccurate, it's closer to "everyone revokes pledge...."

Do you people who say Drumpf genuinely think it's amusing?

They have robo-butlers to say Drumpf for them.

i'm stickin' with Hillary Walmart Clinton

clearly Trump's withdrawal of his support-the-nominee vow is the End

Wait is that real (the transcript) am I dumb did that happen

Verbatim. Last night was a good idea of what it looks like when you press Trump with follow-ups. His big thing now is to cut you off with "Excuse me, excuse me," which translates as "Fucking shut up--I'm talking." Cooper did make some headway. There was the exchange above, and then later he laughingly pointed out that according to Trump, retweets and repeating something somebody else said don't count as agitating; Trump conceded that maybe he should stop doing these things. Even though he won't, obviously.

He's being treated very unfairly. Very unfairly. If we're not careful, he may just take his ball and go home.

Huh, didn't know that was an Arbus photo
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_NhPYzF-mDyQ/Sx7SY0qn5LI/AAAAAAAAB_s/Vd_Es1Nwr9U/s400/SNFU-No+One+Else.jpg

TS: Drumpf vs Zodiac Killer thing

“I don’t know if they were bruises from that. Why? Who said they were bruises from that? How do you know those bruises weren’t there before? I don’t know what the police said. How do you know those bruises weren’t there before? I’m not a lawyer. She said she had a bruise on her arm, to me, if you’re going to get squeezed, wouldn’t you think you would’ve yelled out a scream or something, if she has bruises on her arm? Take a look at her facial expression. It doesn’t even change. So you say bruises on her arm, how did they get there? Who put them there? I don’t know that he put them there?”

http://www.nbc.com/sites/nbcunbc/files/files/images/2015/4/23/140207_2722843_Saturday_Night_News_Segment___Nathan_Thurm_anvver_2.jpg

the problem with those "targets" is i don't think they've updated them since the beginning of the race. so bernie actually needs to outperform those targets by quite a bit to get to a majority

― k3vin k., Monday, 28 March 2016 17:39 (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It's a fair point - they've redrawn them for the current situation

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/

Singularity (of the day!): Wolf Blitzer one on one with political strategist Omarosa.

http://i2.listal.com/image/1033717/936full-idiocracy-screenshot.jpg

Trenchant!

Only thing I don't get in that article: references to "recent polling" in those states, when their own poll-tracking prediction widget suggests that there's almost none to go on, with some states not even getting entries. Not saying that surprise Sanders blowouts lurk everywhere, just that it seems an odd lapse for Silver.

Bernie making this even *look* like a plausible fight to the finish is a bigger victory than I'd have ever predicted for him. It's going to look more like 2008, in terms of states/delegates won, than any other race. Given that he arrived poised to do somewhere between Kucinich and Bradley, I think that bodes extremely well for the progressive left.

xpost Hmmm yeah I wasn't going for that...but happy to provide you insight?

It sure has gotten a lot more dickish here over the years.

Only thing I don't get in that article: references to "recent polling" in those states, when their own poll-tracking prediction widget suggests that there's almost none to go on, with some states not even getting entries

The states he's talking about with the larger quantities of delegates do have recent polling. The states without any polling tend to be the ones with almost no delegates. I'd be very surprised if this turned out to be anywhere near as close as 2008.

I think his campaign bodes well for the progressive left but if you came away from that article thinking that he's manipulating the numbers to make it look bad for Sanders and actually it's super close I think you may be misleading yourself thru wishful thinking.

I think his campaign bodes well for the progressive left until Clinton and Schumer "fix things."

Go read a book ya dumbass

Mordy, please point to anything I said that made you think I interpreted the article that way? I am not stupid and I think I have generally made clear in these threads that I am not under any illusions re: Bernie's chances. Please also indicate which other Dem nominating contest you think is a closer analogue to 2008. I never suggested it would be as close as a 47%/48% split, just that it is dramatically different from the typical outcome of such races. The socialist no-chance guy has won fifteen contests so far, and will probably take a couple more. Though he'll likely fall short of Clinton 08's 23, I find this newsworthy.

It's going to look more like 2008, in terms of states/delegates won, than any other race.

I guess I don't understand what this means. That race seemed extremely close at the time and iirc Hillary ended up winning the popular vote and losing pledged delegates by only like 100. By contrast Bernie is more than 200 down at the moment in pledged and it's looking like Hillary is going to increase her lead by the end of the race. This is without discussing superdelegates at all. They seem fundamentally different in levels of competitiveness to me.

I just looked through the historical primary record and I guess you're right! It does look from a casual glance that it's the closest since 2008, but I'm still not sure they're comparable. I remembered in 2008 that when the primary came to PA the result still seemed unsettled.

and this time, the anointed winner of the Three-Year Money Primary will be first

maybe

and in Debbie Wasserman-Stain endorsement news, fuck Obama

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/29/this-obama-endorsement-is-a-sign-pro-corporate-democrats-are-getting-nervous/

Wasserman-Schultz also endorses Diaz-Balart and Ros-Lehtinen in the battle for which hyphenate can be more dangerous to South Florida.

HRC has deigned to debate Bernie on her "home" state, Brooklyn to be exact, before the primary on 4/19. I guess he has met her conditions about his "tone"

I understand why he wants the debate - he's way behind in NY and needs to win to have a chance at the nomination so any kind of event that could change the polling is worth fighting for. But I'm skeptical that another debate is going to change the numbers much.

i'm guessing it won't be in Prospect Park, to keep Birdie away

The thing is, Mordy, he bailed her out with a NH debate (and she still lost, gives credence to what you are saying) and iirc also the Flint one? So this is really her holding up her end of the bargain. But you're right, probably neglible impact

I have a conservative libertarian friend who has been opining that both parties have moving towards their logical extremes for several years now; I've always discounted this as conservative nonsense but the realization that Sanders running on a platform that likely would have been political anathema 12 years ago is making this a competitive race against Hillary Clinton is making me rethink my position slightly; I still don't think that polarization on the Democratic side is as strong as polarization on the Republican side but I suspect that some of that is because I think progressive positions SHOULD be the default. (I also think Democrats are invested in the idea of a functioning government and Republicans are not, which makes the Democratic side more amenable to compromise and constrains how far to the left the mainstream Democratic position can be.)

That's roughly how I feel as well with the caveat that Republicans are very much into the idea of a functioning government as long as those functions directly enrich themselves and/or their lunch buddies