Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

nomar - but Huckabee told me this was the A Team!

will - yes, but let's not tell them just yet. This is juvenile and spiteful but perhaps it's okay to have them think they are an uncounted legion until circumstances force them to realize they are not so.

he's usually not that memorable a writer so I'm especially impressed

the A Team with nothing but murdocks

i know you all love the markets so...

trump down from 81 to 66 for the gop nom this week

Terrific read

will dig into this and looks like good reportage at first glance but ugh that headline

A good read.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/

The new map, as you will see, does not show a close and competitive general election. The Republicans now find themselves in a deep hole.

... and >1 vote at the convention has gone from 40% to 70% in the same time

are the rapid polling shifts mostly based on his poor wisconsin numbers?

are the polling shifts based on polling shifts?

or do you mean the betting markets? if so, who knows what they are based on, but they do not usually move this quickly absent an actual election reporting a result

i meant the betting markets. it's hard to imagine it moving bc of something he said - you'd think if all the other things he said didn't sink him the latest thing wouldn't either.

Punishing women for abortions does seem to have had an impact that the other enormities didn't, coming in the same week as the lewandowski thing and the cruz's wife stuff.

Ps I think this is the first time in my life I used the word "enormity" correctly and I realise this post is valueless punditry but I didn't want to pass up the opportunity.

Potential Trump supporters have quite possibly never interacted with members of the other groups that Trump has slagged off but chances are pretty good that they've been acquainted with a woman or two. And, yeah, he's always been a misogynist but the past week has been an impressively-sustained assault on that front.

People just need to keep calling him on it so that, unlike most other human beings who would eventually back down and possibly even apologize, he'll keep doubling down with his mealy mouthed "who knows, that pen could've been a bayonet" bullshit and dig the hole deeper.

(I just found within myself a deep desire to stage a faux production of Waiting For Godot with all of Beckett's dialogue replaced with Trump quotes.)

The amazing thing about his abortion comments is that he managed to piss off both pro- and anti-choice people in equal measure.

(I just found within myself a deep desire to stage a faux production of Waiting For Godot with all of Beckett's dialogue replaced with Trump quotes.)

it would be amazing if you got the script off your shelf and realized that trump had been exclusively quoting beckett's dialogue all along

He's like soft porn. People who don't like porn find him offensive and people who do like porn can tell he doesn't really mean what he's saying.

@HillaryClinton
Some folks may have the luxury to hold out for “the perfect.” But a lot of Americans are hurting right now and they can’t wait for that.

@dick_nixon
"What the hell else are you going to do?" At least they came out and said it.

He's like soft porn. People who don't like porn find him offensive and people who do like porn can tell he doesn't really mean what he's saying.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, March 31, 2016 2:37 PM (46 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

However, watching shit emerge from a orifice surrounded by weird looking skin is more hardcore porn.

The amazing thing about his abortion comments is that he managed to piss off both pro- and anti-choice people in equal measure.

― Check Yr Scrobbles (Moodles), Thursday, March 31, 2016 1:20 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he's just punctured their bullshit smokescreen that they are interested in protecting the "wellbeing of women" like those fake ass "pregnancy health counceling" centers they put in vacant corner store locations in the city.

cruz will be much worse on women's right to choose because unlike trump he actually gives a fuck about his horrific "principles" where as trump might see a shiny quarter on the ground get distracted and forget he ever said that, then deny he ever did if it comes up again

that last point is why Cruz is scarier/more dangerous across the board

yep

and why in no way in fucking hell he can be elected, along with being disliked by his party and being physically repellent

also yep

barring some catastrophe or people being so relieved that the Republicans bait/switched at the convention to a candidate less blatantly crazy that the reward their strongarming with votes, the Democratic primary is the actual election this time

obv IMO and I make no guesses about congressional races but unless the country is a lot more shameless than I think it is, whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be the next President

would cruz or trump yield a bigger democratic win? who would have the bigger down-ticket effect?

i instinctively thought Trump, a lot of people don't know/care about Cruz and he wouldn't inspire as much anti-turnout
but then how many Republicans/"independents" will just stay home if Trump isn't the nominee, either...

I have no idea tbh. I never thought DT would make it this far in the first place so I can't feel comfortable making bold predictions about anything other than "he has already secured 90% of the votes he would get in a general election"; Cruz is, as has been noted, the most despised person in the running who could still be thought of as an establishment figure so I can't imagine that his name at the top of the ballot would reflect well on other Republicans downticket unless the person voting has only seen the DT clown show and has never paid attention to a single thing Cruz has ever said or done.

my hunch now is trump, so i'm hoping he noisily clings on

p.s. if you make an incorrect prediction about this election you're not allowed to post in the 2020 thread

GOP better off just renominating Mitt

lolololololololol

https://twitter.com/katie_mburns/status/694021085952548864

isn't that his normal face tho

GOP better off just renominating Mitt

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Thursday, March 31, 2016 4:09 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

kind of hoping cruz gets the nom so we can see what happens to the "if only we nominated a real conservative" whining when he loses miserably

like trump, despite base support among repubs, is still too much of a mixed bag, the wishing for a "real conservative" would persist w/ a trump candidacy

have a trump candidacy then a 'real' conservative, then they can lose this time *and* next time

the sanest republican opts for kasich. s/he who is feeling adventurous favours trump

Absolute best odds for a Republican presidency: Kasich vs. Sanders. Any other combination adds up to a D win IMO.

the next post is the 6,666th one

fartz

haha sorry

actual lol

same

rumour has it if you shave trump's head the number of the beast is revealed

what do you think he's hiding under that combover

that's where he keeps Chris Christie's soul

from Jon Schwarz at The Intercept

...Citizens United didn’t change the law that forbids political spending by “foreign nationals” (which covers foreign governments, corporations, and individuals). Federal contractors also may not engage in such spending.

But what Citizens United did do was make it possible for U.S. corporations to spend unlimited amounts directly from their corporate treasuries on electioneering — and the money in corporate treasuries belongs to the company’s shareholders.

“Arguably, then,” wrote Ellen Weintraub, one of the six members of the FEC, in a New York Times op-ed, “for a corporation to make political contributions or expenditures legally, it may not have any shareholders who are foreigners or federal contractors.”

Since essentially all significant publicly traded “American” corporations are owned to some degree by foreign nationals (and certainly some have shareholders who are federal contractors), that means that any electoral spending by such corporations is potentially illegal.

That would presumably be even more the case for subsidiaries of foreign companies that are wholly owned by their parent company but incorporated in the U.S.

Weintraub says that at the next FEC meeting, she “will move to direct the commission’s lawyers to provide us with options on how best to instruct corporate political spenders of their obligations under both Citizens United and statutory law.”

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/31/foreign-money-is-flowing-into-u-s-elections-alitos-lying-lips-notwithstanding/

shoulda gone in gen politics thread i guess

i instinctively thought Trump, a lot of people don't know/care about Cruz and he wouldn't inspire as much anti-turnout
but then how many Republicans/"independents" will just stay home if Trump isn't the nominee, either...

― Nhex, Thursday, March 31, 2016 9:04 PM (37 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

if cruz was the nominee people are going to know all about him by the time the election rolls around, i mean i doubt most people had even heard of sarah palin when she was picked for the VP slot and well before the election she was the defining reason for anti-turnout.

I sure hope we're not all underestimating the ability of Repubs to hold their collective nose and pull the lever, especially if it's Cruz.