Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

That's a weird question. Is that enthusiasm for voting for their candidate or enthusiasm for voting in general?

here's the link to the poll:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190343/trump-clinton-supporters-lead-enthusiasm.aspx

i got up to the part of the 538 podcast last night where they said they got more questions about this poll than any other thing this election (guess why) but i was done walking my dog before they started to really discuss it. if they have any interesting insight i'll report back.

They don't, I don't think so.

So excitement for race in general... given that their preferred candidate is likely going to lose it makes sense that Sanders supporters would be less enthusiastic at this point.

There is something to what Fred is saying because the level of Sanders' support under the $200 level is pretty impressive. Is that broad or deep or just okay that's pretty cool I'm not sure but it is a little different than Hillary's support

I'm less sure about the numbers. Perhaps Sanders supporters are less enthusiastic about the election because at this points it seems more likely than not that he will lose + a lot of them hate Hillary, much more than Hillary supporters hate Sanders (I think. Hillary still has more favorability amongst dems, iirc)

the "How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, or only a little?" question is also interesting vis-a-vis the claim that hillary supporters are low information voters

people's enthusiasm for voting in the election

If they were polling people's enthusiasm for voting in the general election, and not people's enthusiasm for their preferred candidate, then it is not surprising that supporters of the most likely nominees are most 'enthusiastic'.

non-white votes were so savvy that they saw right past the horrible MSM lies about Hillary

the whiter/more liberal states

Sanders has done well with a number of non-white regions/communities, e.g. Asian-dominated Hawaii, Alaska with its large Native population, Arab-Americans in Michigan, etc. Non-black != white.

3xp

That question is dumb though. Having thought about something doesn't mean you have a lot of information or even good information about it.

I'm less sure about the numbers. Perhaps Sanders supporters are less enthusiastic about the election because at this points it seems more likely than not that he will lose + a lot of them hate Hillary, much more than Hillary supporters hate Sanders (I think. Hillary still has more favorability amongst dems, iirc)

― Frederik B, Tuesday, April 5, 2016 8:39 AM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

"definitely"

"Perhaps"
"I think"
"iirc"
"less sure"
"supporters"
"amongst"
"numbers"
"caek"

Clinton is winning because she has the broadest support - while Sanders definitely has the deepest.

― Frederik B, Tuesday, April 5, 2016 8:17 AM (35 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is baseless (and meaningless) and you act like someone reading their horoscope when shown a poll

you are very bad at this thread imo

Ok, I give. Sanders has nothing.

Is that better?

There's no support for Sanders in the US, and the future for progressivism in the country is nonexistent.

I don't think you understand my point but if you stop posting then we can call it even

Oh, too bad. Then you lose :(

Humanity lost.

On Monday, Mr. Cruz amplified calls for Mr. Kasich to step aside and predicted that “the people would quite rightly revolt” if party leaders tried to elevate anyone other than Mr. Cruz or Mr. Trump at a contested convention in July.

i had assumed that open support for violence was trump's territory alone, but i guess cruz wanted to get in the game too.

i'm not sure if trump will make it to 1,237 delegates. but i do think that if it ends up being a contested convention he's not going to walk out of it as the republican nominee. does anyone think that trump supporters are going to go down quietly? i admit that i'm fascinated by the whole prospect because it would be like nothing i've witnessed in my lifetime but things are going to get frightening pretty quickly if violence breaks out. all of the GOP's courting of the "take our country back" crowd, both tacitly and openly, could really come back to bite them.

tbf if saying the people will revolt is a call for violence...

Trump and Cruz + their support are proving to be two versions of the result of years of over the top rhetoric that's been somehow out looneying itself to reach ridiculous degrees... I've wondered whether its the kind of thing that can reach a climactic point and implode... maybe this will be it?

xpost
then bernie sanders' army of facebook likers is going to march down the street with bazookas if his call for a political revolution goes unheeded?

i think it's a little bit different in the GOP context. would anyone be surprised if trump supporters turned their violence outward and beyond beating the shit out of protesters at his rallies?

Are they going to go with pitchforks to Rinse Pubis' house?

I was reading a comma after beyond, but you mean further than beating up protesters? He has been talking about sending his supporters to Bernie rallies - but at the point which Trump/Cruz are talking about, it'd be other Republicans that would be the target of their wrath.

(But I think I remember Phil D pointing out that he would be one of many people who would be target-adjacent?)

I was reading a comma after beyond, but you mean further than beating up protesters?

to this point their violence has been contained within his own rallies in closed door events. but i'm imagining there are gonna be juuuuuust a few people outside of the republican convention this year, both progressive and conservative protesters of all stripes. that will already be a biiiit on the tense side, and then imagine in the midst of that chaos, an announcement that trump didn't win the first or second votes, and that some typical establishment guy is gonna end up getting the nomination somehow.

i guess i'm on the paranoid side of the spectrum, but i tend to read a bit of nixonland before i go to bed most nights, and 1968 doesn't seem that far away from me. we've changed as a country in many ways, but in some ways not at all

would anyone be surprised if trump supporters turned their violence outward and beyond beating the shit out of protesters at his rallies?

this is already happening!

i am very worried about violence at the rnc this year karl, i don't think we're being paranoid

i think it's going to be really ugly

if the nomination is "taken" from trump though i think the outrage will be milder if cruz is chosen as opposed to kasich

but i'm imagining there are gonna be juuuuuust a few people outside of the republican convention this year, both progressive and conservative protesters of all stripes.

I imagine there won't, from the progressive side at least - you'd have to be insane?

this is already happening!

ugh, i don't know want to know. i mean, i want to know, but i don't want to know.

I imagine there won't, from the progressive side at least - you'd have to be insane?

― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, April 5, 2016 11:06 AM (46 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

there will most definitely be progressive protestors at the rnc this year, there always is

also, remember a few weeks ago when protesters shut down the trump rally in chicago? i don't think you have to be insane, just very brave.

Bloomberg threw a few hundred protestors at the NYC RNC in jail for just standing outside the protest pen etc

Can you imagine Cleveland, months after dealing with a police officer who shot a child for carrying a toy pistol, dealing with hundreds of angry Tea Baggers flaunting their live ammo in the streets.

This year is not really like previous years? I don't know, maybe I'm wrong.

v wrong afaict

Absolutely not blaming anyone who goes down to protest and get fucked up, of course! It just seems an odd hill to possibly literally die on.

the scene outside the trump rally in chicago that was shut down by protesters:

http://i.imgur.com/Mfk54ee.jpg

(those are not trump fans in the photo)

Yes, I am aware of that, thank you.

sorry, not trying to antagonize you. but if tons of protesters showed up in chicago a few weeks ago, why does it seem impossible that the same exact thing would happen at a much more prominent event, at an intensely heated moment in the political cycle, a few hours down the highway?

i don't think it's a weird thing to do, either. people tend to get really worked up when a leading presidential candidate is also a white supremacist

Well, a Trump Rally is by definition a show of force for this white supremacist, and the convention is not going to be*? The damage done will largely be by the GOP to the GOP, it doesn't seem like good tactics to hand around wearing "hey you can blame us if you like" t-shirts on.

*unless he gets to 1278 delegates beforehand, in which case they have my (entirely meaningless, I'm aware) blessing to protest the shit out of it.

*hang around

Karl, how can you possibly have missed ALL of these stories:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/03/02/a_list_of_violent_incidents_at_donald_trump_rallies_and_events.html

And this doesn't include the incident where Trump's capaign manager manhandled a Breitbart reporter or the incident in Janesville, WI, rally where a teenage girl was groped and then peppersprayed and called a nigger lover when she reacted to the groping.

I think you were directing that at Andrew, right. I think Karl seems pretty aware of these incidents.

oh I misread, sorry

But I will link this, which happened BEFORE the rally violence started:

http://www.politicususa.com/2015/08/20/boston-men-inspired-trump-brutally-beat-homeless-hispanic-man.html

great quotes for today:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CfSbVC5UMAI5oiY.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CfP2l16WwAAI97r.jpg:large