@jonahkeriPer BBWAA vote: Starting next year, all Hall of Fame ballots will be made public.
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 6 December 2016 15:12 (seven years ago) link
https://twitter.com/jonahkeri/status/806184630583967748
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 6 December 2016 17:34 (seven years ago) link
Lotta Bill King love in the Bay Area today.
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 7 December 2016 22:00 (seven years ago) link
Seeing as the early public ballots tend to be PED-friendly, there's a strong possibility Gary Sheffield's going to come in under 5%--he's 1 for 22 so far.
― clemenza, Thursday, 8 December 2016 22:52 (seven years ago) link
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/cardinals-nearing-deal-free-agent-with-dexter-fowler.html
― Karl Malone, Friday, 9 December 2016 01:26 (seven years ago) link
oops, wrong thread
steven marcus, new york newsday
https://twitter.com/Sean_Rosales/status/809162740556300288
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 14 December 2016 22:33 (seven years ago) link
52 ballots so far.
1. Raines and Bagwell are going in. They're marching in lockstep, 50 out of 52 both.
2. Right now I-Rod is ahead of Vlad 80% to 71%. I don't know if there's still a late-vote = more-traditional component to the voting--all ballots are public now, right, which would eliminate that. If it is still there, I would expect that gap to narrow and that they'll both be close.
3. Hoffman's at 75%, so I'd say doubtful.
4. Clemens and Bonds are both at 68%--if not this year, maybe they are going to make it before their ten years are up.
5. Edgar and Mussina are doing pretty well at 64%.
― clemenza, Sunday, 18 December 2016 14:56 (seven years ago) link
Edgar should be doing better!
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 18 December 2016 16:27 (seven years ago) link
I agree--he should be in--but he hasn't cracked 45% yet, so if time doesn't run out on him (two more tries after this year, I think), that indicates he may get in at the wire.
― clemenza, Sunday, 18 December 2016 16:57 (seven years ago) link
The SABR-friendly writers always publicize their ballots first, so Edgar and Mussina will drop a lot. Clemens and Bonds in the upper 60's is surprising though!
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 19 December 2016 12:58 (seven years ago) link
126 ballots public, and Clemens and Bonds are at 77%. Maybe not this year, but pretty clearly they are going in.
― clemenza, Thursday, 29 December 2016 16:37 (seven years ago) link
Love Vlad of course, but him getting into the HoF before Mussina, Edgar and Walker is a bit much.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 29 December 2016 22:39 (seven years ago) link
Very different players, but I might put him on par with Walker. Walker does better on the JAWS scale by 10+ WAR, but I think that's distorted a little bit by his years in Colorado and Guerrero's early retirement. Their years in Montreal are hard to compare--Vlad was there during the offensive boom, whereas Walker caught just the beginning--but for what it's worth:
Guerrero -- 1004 games, .323/.390/.588, 234 HR, 148 OPS+, 5.8 WAR/650 PAWalker -- 674 games, .281/.357/.483, 99 HR, 128 OPS+, 5.6 WAR/650 PA
Again, hard to compare. Walker was just getting started when he left, Vlad had his greatest years there.
― clemenza, Thursday, 29 December 2016 23:36 (seven years ago) link
wasn't sure vlad was ever gonna get in, surprised he could be a first ballot guy
― qualx, Thursday, 29 December 2016 23:59 (seven years ago) link
always thought walker was a hof player, vlad too def
― johnny crunch, Friday, 30 December 2016 04:00 (seven years ago) link
looks like raines is going to slide in easily and here i was worried he wouldn't crack through in the end.
― nomar, Friday, 30 December 2016 04:18 (seven years ago) link
i have a little hope for larry walker even though he's only got three years after this one. i feel like he could be the next cause célèbre for a lot of the writers. out of the batters on the ballot, he seems to be the one who needs the most help and who would deserve it. can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade.
― nomar, Friday, 30 December 2016 04:23 (seven years ago) link
As a Jays fan, I find it puzzling that McGriff is still hanging around on the ballot and Delgado didn't even last a year. Slightly different eras, I know. But to me, McGriff just treaded water after the age of 30, whereas Delgado was fairly productive right till he was 36 (and then left the game quickly). And even accounting for era, McGriff didn't have a season as awesome as Delgado's 2000 (or maybe his 2003, too). I don't ever recall any kind of PED suspicion with Delgado, so I don't know why he had such little support.
― clemenza, Friday, 30 December 2016 05:48 (seven years ago) link
In Florida, early voting trends narrowly favor Clinton
― salthigh, Friday, 30 December 2016 06:31 (seven years ago) link
What changed with Bonds and Clemens? Was it just a matter of getting through the backlog of other deserving candidates?
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 30 December 2016 16:01 (seven years ago) link
Delighted getting in
― ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 December 2016 17:20 (seven years ago) link
Selig
https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/805561827434168320
― ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 December 2016 17:21 (seven years ago) link
^others basically say the same but Slusser was on the front of the discussion
― ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 December 2016 17:22 (seven years ago) link
can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade
i'm not sure how many years edgar has left, but i've seen writers energized by the fact that his numbers are significantly better than david ortiz's
plus if trevor hoffman gets in, there's even less of a rationale for excluding designated hitters
― mookieproof, Friday, 30 December 2016 21:23 (seven years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1D20NLVIAAVw64.jpg:small
say what you want about selig/steroids/etc -- the main issue is clown voters
― mookieproof, Sunday, 1 January 2017 05:22 (seven years ago) link
It is funny because Vlad was actually Gold Glove good in 1998, and an absolute defensive disaster the rest of the career. How many players have this one excellent defensive season while being average/plain bad the rest of their career? What clicked in Vlad's brain that year?
― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 3 January 2017 19:52 (seven years ago) link
How many players have this one excellent defensive season while being average/plain bad the rest of their career?
Haven't checked Jeter numbers; he had an anomalously good D-metrics year in 2012, I think?
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 3 January 2017 21:24 (seven years ago) link
Jay Jaffe on Vlad's case
http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/13/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-vladimir-guerrero
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 4 January 2017 16:01 (seven years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1WdaGzUQAEevGB.jpg
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 4 January 2017 19:51 (seven years ago) link
there are a lot of guys getting a good percentage this year. really surprised by Bonds and Clemens both still hovering around 70% and surprised to see how Mussina has both gained and lost a decent number of votes from returning voters (i'm assuming it has something to do w/Raines seeing a huge jump and people finally deciding to cast their votes for the PED suspects, Vlad, and I-Rod.)
next year i'm gonna guess Edgar gets in, along w/maybe one of the current top five who may miss out? Chipper is a shoo-in, Thome seems like a probable near-miss but he shouldn't be.
― nomar, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:14 (seven years ago) link
still think Larry Walker has a shot at a significant groundswell of support but i'm probably overestimating it.
― nomar, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:16 (seven years ago) link
thome's in, no prob
― mookieproof, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:21 (seven years ago) link
i trust the voters to do the right thing more than I did a few years ago but i'm not betting on it. i hope you're right! he was really, really well-liked and also HI I'M JIM THO
― nomar, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:32 (seven years ago) link
the PED suspects, Vlad
Didn't know that. I always thought Guerrero was like Griffey, completely free of suspicion.
― clemenza, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:57 (seven years ago) link
don't think that's what he meant
― mookieproof, Thursday, 5 January 2017 18:58 (seven years ago) link
Ah, the serial comma...(I-Rod is a PED suspect, though, which is what threw me.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 5 January 2017 19:03 (seven years ago) link
yeah but he's like Bagwell or Piazza as opposed to Clemens or Bonds or McGwire.
― nomar, Thursday, 5 January 2017 19:24 (seven years ago) link
I thought there was some legitimate suspicion with him? he never really looked the part
― qualx, Thursday, 5 January 2017 21:13 (seven years ago) link
didn't even notice posada was on the ballot this year, shocked he might be eliminated. i figured he had a good chance of getting in eventually, and i think he probably deserves it, but i guess i'm going to spend the rest of my days crusading for people to adjust their standards for catchers
― qualx, Monday, 9 January 2017 01:36 (seven years ago) link
posada's a hall of very good for me
― k3vin k., Monday, 9 January 2017 02:43 (seven years ago) link
and we all know my thoughts on catchers
very few of the names mentioned here really seem "all-time" to me tbrr
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 9 January 2017 07:47 (seven years ago) link
bonds, clemens, manny. that's it for me
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 9 January 2017 07:50 (seven years ago) link
seem vs the evidence, tho
i think we have lived in a time of viewing great players as mere mortals, very often.
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, 9 January 2017 15:38 (seven years ago) link
(xpost) I think even a small-hall ballot ought to include Bagwell and I-Rod.
― clemenza, Monday, 9 January 2017 15:46 (seven years ago) link
there are 11 guys i'd vote for (bagwell, bonds, clemens, vlad, martinez, mussina, raines, ramirez, rodriguez, schilling, walker), and i'd think about throwing a vote to kent, mcgriff, sheffield, and sosa after awhile. hoffman, posada, smith, and wagner...idk. i'm agnostic on closers and posada was good but not THAT good.
― nomar, Monday, 9 January 2017 16:49 (seven years ago) link
no fucking closers except rivera, very easy rule
― k3vin k., Monday, 9 January 2017 17:08 (seven years ago) link
that should be in the BBWAA rules
― nomar, Monday, 9 January 2017 17:10 (seven years ago) link
i dunno,, i mean his ten season run from age 20-29 was pretty amazing. he averaged about 6 WAR at that time. i'm not totally sold on him but if he got in i'd be cool with it.
― nomar, Monday, 23 January 2017 23:07 (seven years ago) link
Clemenza, i somehow misread that as you saying you were in the BBHOF
― why ruin a good tradition? (Will M.), Monday, 23 January 2017 23:08 (seven years ago) link
he said "should" -- clemenza should be in the HOF
― k3vin k., Monday, 23 January 2017 23:12 (seven years ago) link
Believe me, I accumulated all my value before I was 17 at best--I've just been killing time since then.
― clemenza, Monday, 23 January 2017 23:15 (seven years ago) link
I'll admit to a huge blind-spot with Jones: I'm not conversant with newer defensive metrics, and remain far more trusting of offensive numbers. To a certain extent, I'm still stuck on the eye-test when it comes to defense...I can confidently say Pillar's great, and I can be stubborn about saying Alomar was great, but with Jones, besides the awkward (again, for me--it doesn't bother everyone) shape of his career, I have to accept that 40% of his career value is tied up in defensive numbers that I find much more elusive than offensive or pitching stats. I'd rather see Jim Edmonds in there (they're close--Jones does a little better under JAWS).
― clemenza, Monday, 23 January 2017 23:27 (seven years ago) link
he did hit 434 homers and stole 152 bases, so it's not like he was *only* defense
and yeah it was a time of many dingers, but he's ahead of both piazza and ripken. decent counting stats considering the shape of his career
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 00:17 (seven years ago) link
i'd probably put Edmonds in ahead of Jones but i think both should be in there tbh. i don't anticipate either getting in unless there's some miracle via the vet committee.
I think Walker will get in one day, speaking of underrated OFers. i think the vets will put him in eventually.
― nomar, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 01:59 (seven years ago) link
FG on andruw
― qualx, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 05:47 (seven years ago) link
are we resigned to ortiz getting in without much debate? lower WAR than jim rice, who i figured he'd spend his candidacy being compared to before he went and had his best season since 07
― qualx, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 05:51 (seven years ago) link
Likely behind the paywall, but James's Andruw piece from three years ago:
http://www.billjamesonline.com/andruw/?AuthorId=3&pg=6&F_All=y
I have done the best I could to place Jones in the "right" position as a defensive player, and, as I said, I have confidence that my system is generally right on a certain level. But I can’t prove that those who would give more weight to his defense are absolutely wrong, just as I don’t believe that they can prove that they’re right. But based on my understanding of the record, Jones’ fielding
a) Was only truly outstanding through 2002; after that his Gold Gloves were mostly just reputation, and
b) Was not of substantial enough value that we should consider him an all-time great player.
I would put Andruw in a class with Vada Pinson, Cesar Cedeno, Fred Lynn and perhaps a few others. Jimmy Wynn and Dale Murphy. These men, all center fielders, were all tremendous players when they were young--such tremendous players that they didn’t need to develop in order to become Hall of Famers; they merely needed to sustain their level of performance for a reasonably full career. But, for whatever reason, they weren’t able to do that, and fell short of a Hall of Fame standard.
I think he's revised his opinion a little upwards--he posted something yesterday that put Andruw as a B-level HOF'er, whereas Edmonds fell into the C category--but I'm not sure if he's in favor of induction yet.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 12:28 (seven years ago) link
For me, if you dominate your position for ten straight years then you have a strong HOF argument. So I think Edmonds has been underrated.
On one hand I agree with clem about Andruw Jones but OTOH the age think seems arbitrary. Roy Halladay also had ten great years and literally nothing else but most of us think he's a clear HOFer. However Jones got fat and arguably wasted his talent whereas Halladay got injured which was a kind of fluke and not his fault, should this matter? My gut feeling is that it should, but again I'm not sure.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 13:36 (seven years ago) link
age thing, not think
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 13:37 (seven years ago) link
i have absolutely no problem with david ortiz going into the hall of fame
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 15:25 (seven years ago) link
Hope Edgar gets there first, but I think Ortiz is automatic at this point.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 17:47 (seven years ago) link
Some cool pics of I-Rod visiting Puerto Rico today and tonight going around on the internet I saw on a baseball group on Facebook. He visited a children's hospital and then was a guest at the team he played winter ball back on.
― earlnash, Saturday, 28 January 2017 06:44 (seven years ago) link
Is there a chance for Scott Rolen to get in? or is he going to Edmondsed?
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 29 January 2017 18:11 (seven years ago) link
I think he's headed for a Tim Raines-like extended stay on the ballot, but because things are moving more and more in a sabermetric direction, he will get in towards the end of his 10 years.
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:01 (seven years ago) link
he's gonna have trouble getting 5% though, isn't he? the ballot is still crowded
― k3vin k., Sunday, 29 January 2017 19:04 (seven years ago) link