Hall of Fame Ballot 2017

always thought walker was a hof player, vlad too def

looks like raines is going to slide in easily and here i was worried he wouldn't crack through in the end.

i have a little hope for larry walker even though he's only got three years after this one. i feel like he could be the next cause célèbre for a lot of the writers. out of the batters on the ballot, he seems to be the one who needs the most help and who would deserve it. can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade.

As a Jays fan, I find it puzzling that McGriff is still hanging around on the ballot and Delgado didn't even last a year. Slightly different eras, I know. But to me, McGriff just treaded water after the age of 30, whereas Delgado was fairly productive right till he was 36 (and then left the game quickly). And even accounting for era, McGriff didn't have a season as awesome as Delgado's 2000 (or maybe his 2003, too). I don't ever recall any kind of PED suspicion with Delgado, so I don't know why he had such little support.

In Florida, early voting trends narrowly favor Clinton

What changed with Bonds and Clemens? Was it just a matter of getting through the backlog of other deserving candidates?

Delighted getting in

Selig

https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/805561827434168320

^others basically say the same but Slusser was on the front of the discussion

can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade

i'm not sure how many years edgar has left, but i've seen writers energized by the fact that his numbers are significantly better than david ortiz's

plus if trevor hoffman gets in, there's even less of a rationale for excluding designated hitters

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1D20NLVIAAVw64.jpg:small

say what you want about selig/steroids/etc -- the main issue is clown voters

It is funny because Vlad was actually Gold Glove good in 1998, and an absolute defensive disaster the rest of the career. How many players have this one excellent defensive season while being average/plain bad the rest of their career? What clicked in Vlad's brain that year?

How many players have this one excellent defensive season while being average/plain bad the rest of their career?

Haven't checked Jeter numbers; he had an anomalously good D-metrics year in 2012, I think?

Jay Jaffe on Vlad's case

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/13/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-vladimir-guerrero

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1WdaGzUQAEevGB.jpg

there are a lot of guys getting a good percentage this year. really surprised by Bonds and Clemens both still hovering around 70% and surprised to see how Mussina has both gained and lost a decent number of votes from returning voters (i'm assuming it has something to do w/Raines seeing a huge jump and people finally deciding to cast their votes for the PED suspects, Vlad, and I-Rod.)

next year i'm gonna guess Edgar gets in, along w/maybe one of the current top five who may miss out? Chipper is a shoo-in, Thome seems like a probable near-miss but he shouldn't be.

still think Larry Walker has a shot at a significant groundswell of support but i'm probably overestimating it.

thome's in, no prob

i trust the voters to do the right thing more than I did a few years ago but i'm not betting on it. i hope you're right! he was really, really well-liked and also HI I'M JIM THO

the PED suspects, Vlad

Didn't know that. I always thought Guerrero was like Griffey, completely free of suspicion.

don't think that's what he meant

Ah, the serial comma...(I-Rod is a PED suspect, though, which is what threw me.)

yeah but he's like Bagwell or Piazza as opposed to Clemens or Bonds or McGwire.

I thought there was some legitimate suspicion with him? he never really looked the part

didn't even notice posada was on the ballot this year, shocked he might be eliminated. i figured he had a good chance of getting in eventually, and i think he probably deserves it, but i guess i'm going to spend the rest of my days crusading for people to adjust their standards for catchers

posada's a hall of very good for me

and we all know my thoughts on catchers

very few of the names mentioned here really seem "all-time" to me tbrr

bonds, clemens, manny. that's it for me

seem vs the evidence, tho

i think we have lived in a time of viewing great players as mere mortals, very often.

(xpost) I think even a small-hall ballot ought to include Bagwell and I-Rod.

there are 11 guys i'd vote for (bagwell, bonds, clemens, vlad, martinez, mussina, raines, ramirez, rodriguez, schilling, walker), and i'd think about throwing a vote to kent, mcgriff, sheffield, and sosa after awhile. hoffman, posada, smith, and wagner...idk. i'm agnostic on closers and posada was good but not THAT good.

no fucking closers except rivera, very easy rule

that should be in the BBWAA rules

Held back by his base running and defensive deficiencies, his 42.7 career WAR ranks 18th all-time—respectable, but 10 wins below the average Hall of Famer and ahead of just four of the 14 enshrined, including Roy Campanella, whose career was shortened by the color line. Posada looks better on the basis of his 32.7 peak score, which ranks 16th but is just 1.5 wins below the standard and is ahead of six enshrined catchers, only one of whom (Gabby Hartnett) was elected by the BBWAA. Posada is also 16th in JAWS, 6.7 points below the standard and ahead of just four enshrined catchers, including the BBWAA-elected Campanella. Given that Posada's Monitor score is modest, his postseason numbers (.248/.358/.387) lackluster and his framing numbers awful, I just don't see enough to overturn that JAWS verdict. Posada is not even the best Yankees catcher outside the Hall: Thurman Munson (45.9/37.0/41.5) ranks 12th on JAWS and is above the peak standard despite a career cut short after 10 1/2 seasons due to his death.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/16/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-jorge-posada

i guess mauer should retire now -- he has the stats to get in as a catcher, but not as a first baseman

no fucking closers except rivera, very easy rule

Not at all saying they will, but another decade of Kimbrel and/or Chapman doing what they do now would be good enough for me.

closers tend to get elected because saves are a made-up stat they can collect pretty easily and the heightened drama of getting the final out. not gonna deny that these are mostly good pitchers but oftentimes they're not really great or even very good. chapman is pretty impressive, kimbrel less so, but idk. these guys aren't much better than andrew miller or betances or jansen. probably should just have a special wing of the hall for guys who whined that they didn't want to face more than three batters at a time and only in the 9th inning please.

the best failed starters in baseball!

i expect Gooose Gossage to rush the stage if the 3-out guys get in

The tracker address above was changed for some reason. New link:

http://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw

Bonds and Clemens are under 65% now, so clearly won't happen this year. Guerrero is just barely above 75%, so he'll probably miss too.

I read a lot of Schilling advocacy after his slow start, and the gap between him and Mussina has closed a lot. Mussina's still ahead at 60%--they still have five years each, so they should be fine. And I imagine Edgar (67%) will get the same last-year push as Raines in 2019.

Whether or not Walker becomes a cause, can't see him making up 50% in his three remaining years.

Hoffman will wait one more year, I-Rod on the cusp; Raines has even passed Bagwell for the time being.

Considering how quickly closers flame out, it's hardly worth talking about whether Chapman, Kimbrel, Jansen, etc. are on a HOF career path or not. Everyone knows that saves are overvalued or even meaningless, and hard throwing middle relievers are all over baseball, but it's still rare for anyone to have a 15+ year career as a dominant reliever. If Kimbrel or Chapman were to put up another ten dominant years and finish with 600+ saves, then I probably would support their election to the HOF, but it's so unlikely to happen that it's almost impossible to project.

even when hoffman had all those seasons where he walked out to an AC/DC song and threw hard for a few minutes every several days, i never thought he was a hall of famer.

edgar gets in next year for sure, he's had the biggest net gain among voters, his +30 is even more than raines' +25.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2686125-seligs-call-to-the-hall-shouldnt-bring-flood-of-new-names-to-cooperstown#

not a particularly bright guy, this one. compares schilling in his prime unfavorably to JACK MORRIS.

Fixed:

Curt Schilling: This has zero to do with Jack Morris saying "I don't talk to women when I'm naked unless they're on top of me or I'm on top of them" to a woman journalist, but I would take Jack Morris in his prime over Schilling in his prime only if innings pitched is the lone stat that matters.

poor man's murray chass

Hoffman was solid for a long time. Of this Hall class, I think Billy Wagner was harder to hit. Wagner was a K machine in his prime and being a lefty, perhaps a bit more valuable.

billy wagner was a lot better than hoffman for a one-inning specialist, and his "origin story" is awesome

Wagner was a natural-born right-handed person, but after breaking his right arm twice in accidents as a young boy, he taught himself to throw baseballs using his left arm by throwing balls against the wall of a barn, and then fielding the rebounds.

Is there a chance for Scott Rolen to get in? or is he going to Edmondsed?

I think he's headed for a Tim Raines-like extended stay on the ballot, but because things are moving more and more in a sabermetric direction, he will get in towards the end of his 10 years.

he's gonna have trouble getting 5% though, isn't he? the ballot is still crowded