French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

Fillon's incredible capacity for dishonest, maudlin, self-regarding martyrdom here also a factor maybe. There's a hard seam of emotional messianism about French politics that I've never really understood TBH

Is a majority of Fillon's support likely to break for Le Pen in the runoff (assuming etc etc)?

iirc there was a poll stating it would break down to 1/3 le pen 1/3 macron 1/3 abstaining
fillon really is a complete piece of shit with an incredible capacity for all those things you mentioned tracer. also, he keeps sayng stupid shit, like yesterrday's "i barely earn enough to save money every month" while making 23k€/month. love le gorafi launching a kickstarter campaign to get him some money.

Loool

urgh Melenchon/MLP face-off is just too ugly to consider. Hate this election

so?

(not a reply to baaderonixx - a bid for thoughts on last night's debate.. that is, if anybody actually made it through..)

this was good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SJvA0fS8Yc

I didn't watch any of it. since I can't yet vote I don't need to spend 3 1/2 hrs listening to potshots against the cons/connes, j'ai la flemme. I gather "nothing changed"?

nothing changed

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/

A run off between two eurosceptic, anti-NATO, Putin-accommodating candidates would be a disaster for Eastern Europe in particular. But I doubt anyone cares aside from the principaux intéressés.

went to vote earlier today, there's been a line in front of the place all day long
really starting to worry about the results tonight

I've heard Le Pen voters, being highly motivated, always show up to the polls - does this mean the high turnout might be a good sign (i.e. people have been sufficiently scared by a Le Pen victory that they're hitting the polls to prevent it?)

yup, it is commonly accepted that higher turnout reduces the proportion of le pen votes. she's still more than likely to make it to the second round though, but whereas a few months ago it was a given she'd finish first with a comfortable margin, now she might come in second or first with a tiny margin. some exit polls are floating around giving macron ahead of le pen rn, we'll see

Is macron vs le pen much better than fillon vs le pen?

Y E S

Why? Bc he's more electable? But it's still a bad ideological mix and presumably the left would still be uninterested in coming out for the globalist?

Please school me if I'm confused but le pen seems more like what trumps supporters thought he was and macron seems more like what hillarys opponents thought she was

"Bad ideological mix'... No perfect candidates. I'm happy if Macron wins because he's young, had a grassroots campaign attracting a lot of youngsters, and is pro-EU.

Fillon supporters would vote for Macron for president, I reckon. Mélonchon prob not so much, but Fillon is so tainted, him up against Le Pen would be very dangerous imho.

Fillon wants to impose a (further) austerity program. This would be a disaster for the slow economic recovery that is in place. Macron does not want to impose such a program. Thus Macron would be much better than Fillon.

That too ^^

Think it's not as simple as Mordy states that "would left vote for a centrist". Because I think in continental Western Europe these two aren't as far removed - they will find common ground as "progressive".

My impression was that Macrons reforms was essentially neoliberal and austerity like cutting SS, labor reforms, etc

Your impression is wrong.

Macron def wants big cuts, but not nearly as big as Fillon (link)

Macron would be seen as a standard social-democrat in any western country outside of France.

Ugh, they're the worst.

EuropeElects projects:

Macron 26%
Le Pen 23%
Melenchon 21%
Fillon 17%

last time I was in france la loi macron was going down like a bag of day old sick. some turnaround for him

It's his daughter

Macron / Le Pen, as expected.

Emmanuel Macron : 23,7 %
Marine Le Pen : 21,7 %
François Fillon : 19,5 %
Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 19,5 %
Benoît Hamon : 6,2 %
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 5%
Jean Lassalle 1,5 %
Philippe Poutou 1,2 %
François Asselineau 0,8 %
Nathalie Arthaud 0,7%
Jacques Cheminade : 0,2 %

Closer than I would've liked

(though the exit poll is based mostly on rural France, the big cities (Macron) are still to be counted)

Ipsos: Macron 23.7% Le Pen 21.7%
Elabe: Macron 23.7% Le Pen 22%
Kantar: Macron 23% Le Pen 23%
Ifop: Macron 23,8% Le Pen 21,6%

Harris poll has:

Macron (EM-*): 24.5%
Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 20%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 20%
Fillon (LR-EPP): 18%

just to keep it exciting :(

How many polls do they have?! :D

legally none

Took us 2 hours to vote yesterday.

Le Pen at 2% of #1. Jeez.

@NateSilver538 53s54 seconds ago
Clinton led Trump by 2-3 points
Remain led Leave by 1-2 points
Macron leads Le Pen by 26 points in runoff polls

How nice for her etc.

mordy: http://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/entreprises/travail-le-dimanche/l-article-a-lire-pour-comprendre-la-loi-macron_770365.html

Still a big win for Le Pen, who no doubt will try and draw the Fillon-squad to her for the second round. At the same time I think EU breathes a bit more relaxed, as there is no "realistic" (I know, I know) scenario for Le Pen to win this in any way.

xxxp Fuck NateSilver53fucking8 for pretending to know what he's on about here

Hamon concedes and asks his (6,2%) followers to vote for Macron.

Happy that Macron has more votes than Le Pen, and that Mélenchon is tied with Fillon; the left having as good an outing as the mainstream right is a good sign.

I understand the less enthused reactions here but frankly I was expecting Le Pen to win the first round.

Dunno if you can talk about good outing when Le Pen beats Melenchon and Hamon.

Worth mentioning the pollsters have been pretty spot on here.

Van Horn Street, as stated, I expected her to beat everyone, so.

Didn't expect Le Pen to win, not for a second. A 22-23% slice of the cake is still really big. But otoh: for a country that has had so much trouble with terrorist attacks etc I am pleasantly surprised only a fifth chose for the neo-nazi? Mixed feelings.

Extreme right won but it's hardly a power grab. Same with Wilders two months earlier (getting 13% of the vote).

So this exit poll is not actually an exit poll, but a sampling of real votes in 7pm-closing areas, right? Run through some demographic adjustment to provide an estimate. And it's always been pretty accurate, within a point or so. Surprised they can broadcast it when some polls are still open. I'm hoping the margin of error is such that Le Pen actually gets squeezed out.