French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

last time I was in france la loi macron was going down like a bag of day old sick. some turnaround for him

It's his daughter

Macron / Le Pen, as expected.

Emmanuel Macron : 23,7 %
Marine Le Pen : 21,7 %
François Fillon : 19,5 %
Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 19,5 %
Benoît Hamon : 6,2 %
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : 5%
Jean Lassalle 1,5 %
Philippe Poutou 1,2 %
François Asselineau 0,8 %
Nathalie Arthaud 0,7%
Jacques Cheminade : 0,2 %

Closer than I would've liked

(though the exit poll is based mostly on rural France, the big cities (Macron) are still to be counted)

Ipsos: Macron 23.7% Le Pen 21.7%
Elabe: Macron 23.7% Le Pen 22%
Kantar: Macron 23% Le Pen 23%
Ifop: Macron 23,8% Le Pen 21,6%

Harris poll has:

Macron (EM-*): 24.5%
Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 20%
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 20%
Fillon (LR-EPP): 18%

just to keep it exciting :(

How many polls do they have?! :D

legally none

Took us 2 hours to vote yesterday.

Le Pen at 2% of #1. Jeez.

@NateSilver538 53s54 seconds ago
Clinton led Trump by 2-3 points
Remain led Leave by 1-2 points
Macron leads Le Pen by 26 points in runoff polls

How nice for her etc.

mordy: http://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/entreprises/travail-le-dimanche/l-article-a-lire-pour-comprendre-la-loi-macron_770365.html

Still a big win for Le Pen, who no doubt will try and draw the Fillon-squad to her for the second round. At the same time I think EU breathes a bit more relaxed, as there is no "realistic" (I know, I know) scenario for Le Pen to win this in any way.

xxxp Fuck NateSilver53fucking8 for pretending to know what he's on about here

Hamon concedes and asks his (6,2%) followers to vote for Macron.

Happy that Macron has more votes than Le Pen, and that Mélenchon is tied with Fillon; the left having as good an outing as the mainstream right is a good sign.

I understand the less enthused reactions here but frankly I was expecting Le Pen to win the first round.

Dunno if you can talk about good outing when Le Pen beats Melenchon and Hamon.

Worth mentioning the pollsters have been pretty spot on here.

Van Horn Street, as stated, I expected her to beat everyone, so.

Didn't expect Le Pen to win, not for a second. A 22-23% slice of the cake is still really big. But otoh: for a country that has had so much trouble with terrorist attacks etc I am pleasantly surprised only a fifth chose for the neo-nazi? Mixed feelings.

Extreme right won but it's hardly a power grab. Same with Wilders two months earlier (getting 13% of the vote).

So this exit poll is not actually an exit poll, but a sampling of real votes in 7pm-closing areas, right? Run through some demographic adjustment to provide an estimate. And it's always been pretty accurate, within a point or so. Surprised they can broadcast it when some polls are still open. I'm hoping the margin of error is such that Le Pen actually gets squeezed out.

All polls closed at 8pm, when the exit poll was published, so there weren't any polls open anymore when they let this result out. The bigger cities will take way more time to call the vote. They prob adjust this for the published exit polls, but the cities are generally not in favor of Le Pen, more of the moderates.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-HbDcCXYAAM7Oq.jpg

as soon as this pub^^^ closes/the revolution starts

where is the bar

I'm curious, how many pro-Mélenchon posters also complain about Brexit on a regular basis?

good question.

bar = Belushi's Gare Du Nord, 5 Rue de Dunkerque, 75010 Paris (Informal chain bar with TV sport and live entertainment, plus a burger menu and global comfort food)

^^^acc. getty images

http://images.sudouest.fr/2017/04/23/58fcd4e566a4bdf7281d1216/widescreen/1000x500/le-candidat-de-la-france-insoumise-a-privatise-un-bar-rock-et-sport-pres-de-la-gare-du-nord.jpg

un bar "rock et sport"

global comfort food seems like a good idea tbh, i wonder where you get it in hackney

Fillon endorses Macron!

Was there any question? They're v similar.

yes but fillon is one of the most colossally self-absorbed ppl in politics so

Le pen will presumably make appeals for Lexit Econ left voters from Melenchon like Trump tried to do with Bernie voters id think and try to frame macron as the neoliberal establishment candidate. Obv it won't be as easy to do as it was to Hill

Its not going to happen AT ALL - get the sense that Melanchon = anti-racist left.

She's going to downplay the racism and amp up the anti-globalisation.

Its not going to work - polls show any of Macron seeing off Le Pen in the 2nd round with ease

France can look forward to having an investment banker for President. Joy.

Mélenchon's protectionist discourse was a hit with certain far right voters. Everything will be framed in terms of nationalism vs. internationalism, just like everywhere else. Macron is bound to win, but I suspect Le Pen will garner more support than expected.

Was there any question? They're v similar.

― Mordy, Sunday, April 23, 2017 3:21 PM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

No they aren't.

Fiscal Kombat, a video game where Mélenchon’s avatar beats up capitalists who have stolen public money

@Mordy, Macron and Fillon really not that similar. Otoh, expect supporters of Fillon and Melenchon to vote largely for Macron, because Le Pen is just a bridge too far. Rightfully so, she's a nazi in poor disguise.

I don't see this being a four headed race as a bad thing, at all. Used to it bcz of Dutch politics, but the palette of multiple viable candidates is, to me, infinetely more appealing than a black and white Clinton vs Trump vote. It's a system that weeds out extremism, too.

France can look forward to having an investment banker for President. Joy.

Yeah, good reminder, not very happy about this. But if the choice is between a banker or a neo-nazi, it's fairly simple tbh.

xp

No they aren't.

lol jacobin but at least some ppl think they are

Is Macron doing well in the polls because people are worried about the other two extremes?

First, he is a neoliberal candidate — he is not a Scandinavian-style social democrat, whatever the Financial Times might say. Fillon is the neoliberal candidate with a snarl, and Macron is the neoliberal candidate with a smile.

The cuts and reforms he is proposing are less severe, less radical than those proposed by Fillon, he claims that in return there will be some version of “flexisecurity” or this or that kind of compensation, but they are neoliberal reforms. Nobody doubts that at all.

Mordy, I love you and you are very knowledgeable in general, but in this case? You seem unable or simply unwilling to acknowledge the difference between Macron and Fillon. Have you even followed the campaign closely? Because it's gonna need more than this Jacobin link bth.

Mordy's just stirring the pot a little.

Of course this is the month I read around French politics and then forget it for a few years - which is why we are mapping things onto French politics from other countries. Here is one more - he comes across as v Trudeau-like.

Yeah, good reminder, not very happy about this. But if the choice is between a banker or a neo-nazi, it's fairly simple tbh.

Sure, but ongoing cuts (even if not as extreme as Fillon) could create conditions for Le Pen (or her daughter) to triumph next time around - Macron is young and pretty. As is Le Pen's daughter.

xxp educate me please! i'm sincere - i understand that Macron is not as dramatically regressive or austere as Fillon but in terms of things like staying in the EU, presumably continuing free labor movement, economic reforms designed to attract capital (like cutting corporate taxes), etc, this makes a clear lacuna where le pen could theoretically (tho i think unsuccessfully) try to cleave lexit voters.

Sure, but ongoing cuts (even if not as extreme as Fillon) could create conditions for Le Pen (or her daughter) to triumph next time around - Macron is young and pretty. As is Le Pen's daughter.

Quite happy Marion Maréchal isn't FN's leader yet tbh. She will gather way more votes than Le Pen, I fear.

heres another similar take, lbi, from the Philippe Marlière:

On important issues such as the 35-hour working week, pensions, education or taxation, Macron suggests “deregulating” and proposes “à la carte systems” to voters. This is in line with some of the reforms that he implemented as minister of the economy, notably the 2015 law on economic growth and activity. The bill includes a patchwork of measures, such as permission for more stores to open on Sundays, and provisions to reduce workplace protection.

The left and trade unions consider that he is a “rightwinger”, and the right describe him as a “shallow” and “fake” politician. Martine Aubry, a former PS leader and architect of the 35-hour working week reform that Macron wants to dismantle, declared that she was “fed up with Macron”. Marine Le Pen also foresees danger. She has argued that Macron was “the bankers’ candidate”, and she may have a point: before entering the political arena, Macron was an investment banker with Rothschild. While working for the company, he was behind a high-profile deal between Nestlé and Pfizer that made him a millionaire. Yet Macron astonishingly portrays himself as an “anti-system” candidate in a struggle with all “types of corporatist and conservative powers”. This is an audacious claim from someone who is a media favourite and who has close connections with business circles.

the

fwiw i don't see any of this as a bad thing and i know french jewry was freaked out about the idea of melenchon vs. le pen (french jewry is where i get 99% of the information i have about france from) so they're probably relieved they can vote for macron.