French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

Was there any question? They're v similar.

― Mordy, Sunday, April 23, 2017 3:21 PM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

No they aren't.

Fiscal Kombat, a video game where Mélenchon’s avatar beats up capitalists who have stolen public money

@Mordy, Macron and Fillon really not that similar. Otoh, expect supporters of Fillon and Melenchon to vote largely for Macron, because Le Pen is just a bridge too far. Rightfully so, she's a nazi in poor disguise.

I don't see this being a four headed race as a bad thing, at all. Used to it bcz of Dutch politics, but the palette of multiple viable candidates is, to me, infinetely more appealing than a black and white Clinton vs Trump vote. It's a system that weeds out extremism, too.

France can look forward to having an investment banker for President. Joy.

Yeah, good reminder, not very happy about this. But if the choice is between a banker or a neo-nazi, it's fairly simple tbh.

xp

No they aren't.

lol jacobin but at least some ppl think they are

Is Macron doing well in the polls because people are worried about the other two extremes?

First, he is a neoliberal candidate — he is not a Scandinavian-style social democrat, whatever the Financial Times might say. Fillon is the neoliberal candidate with a snarl, and Macron is the neoliberal candidate with a smile.

The cuts and reforms he is proposing are less severe, less radical than those proposed by Fillon, he claims that in return there will be some version of “flexisecurity” or this or that kind of compensation, but they are neoliberal reforms. Nobody doubts that at all.

Mordy, I love you and you are very knowledgeable in general, but in this case? You seem unable or simply unwilling to acknowledge the difference between Macron and Fillon. Have you even followed the campaign closely? Because it's gonna need more than this Jacobin link bth.

Mordy's just stirring the pot a little.

Of course this is the month I read around French politics and then forget it for a few years - which is why we are mapping things onto French politics from other countries. Here is one more - he comes across as v Trudeau-like.

Yeah, good reminder, not very happy about this. But if the choice is between a banker or a neo-nazi, it's fairly simple tbh.

Sure, but ongoing cuts (even if not as extreme as Fillon) could create conditions for Le Pen (or her daughter) to triumph next time around - Macron is young and pretty. As is Le Pen's daughter.

xxp educate me please! i'm sincere - i understand that Macron is not as dramatically regressive or austere as Fillon but in terms of things like staying in the EU, presumably continuing free labor movement, economic reforms designed to attract capital (like cutting corporate taxes), etc, this makes a clear lacuna where le pen could theoretically (tho i think unsuccessfully) try to cleave lexit voters.

Sure, but ongoing cuts (even if not as extreme as Fillon) could create conditions for Le Pen (or her daughter) to triumph next time around - Macron is young and pretty. As is Le Pen's daughter.

Quite happy Marion Maréchal isn't FN's leader yet tbh. She will gather way more votes than Le Pen, I fear.

heres another similar take, lbi, from the Philippe Marlière:

On important issues such as the 35-hour working week, pensions, education or taxation, Macron suggests “deregulating” and proposes “à la carte systems” to voters. This is in line with some of the reforms that he implemented as minister of the economy, notably the 2015 law on economic growth and activity. The bill includes a patchwork of measures, such as permission for more stores to open on Sundays, and provisions to reduce workplace protection.

The left and trade unions consider that he is a “rightwinger”, and the right describe him as a “shallow” and “fake” politician. Martine Aubry, a former PS leader and architect of the 35-hour working week reform that Macron wants to dismantle, declared that she was “fed up with Macron”. Marine Le Pen also foresees danger. She has argued that Macron was “the bankers’ candidate”, and she may have a point: before entering the political arena, Macron was an investment banker with Rothschild. While working for the company, he was behind a high-profile deal between Nestlé and Pfizer that made him a millionaire. Yet Macron astonishingly portrays himself as an “anti-system” candidate in a struggle with all “types of corporatist and conservative powers”. This is an audacious claim from someone who is a media favourite and who has close connections with business circles.

the

fwiw i don't see any of this as a bad thing and i know french jewry was freaked out about the idea of melenchon vs. le pen (french jewry is where i get 99% of the information i have about france from) so they're probably relieved they can vote for macron.

I'm curious, how many pro-Mélenchon posters also complain about Brexit on a regular basis?

About equally pissed off with brexit and the behaviour of the European Union towards the PIGS; wouldn't want France to leave (more lost than won) but am 100% onboard with leftist pols pressuring Brussels as much as possible. Frankly that whole thing about having randomly selected citizens participate in the rewriting of the constitution (if I read that right?) makes me more wary of Mélenchon than any referendum.

Or, indeed, asking people to vote their conscience in his concession speech in order to avoid endorsing Macron, which is a dick move of epic proportions.

xxp

I'm not a Macron-stan, but don't know what to tell you. Your criticism of Macron goes for every single one of them. Macron, Le Pen, Fillon, Melenchon: all four of them are decidedly elite, part of the system they say they now want to fight. Only thing that's different is they say they want to fight the system (they belong to) in different ways. Just like Wilders (third-longest seated pm, mispresenting himself as against or outside the elite, but an inherent part of the elite.)

I know nothing about French-jewry, but I think them freaking out about a Melenchon-Le Pen face off was justified. Extreme left and extreme right both aren't good partners for jews iirc.

Quite happy Marion Maréchal isn't FN's leader yet tbh. She will gather way more votes than Le Pen, I fear.

She's definitely not going away.

I hope Melanchon can build on from this though. Anyone know what his plans will be?

for now it's a non-concession speech if i'm reading the french correctly (caveat: my french is a bit rubbish): melenchon's saying the results aren't in yet and he may still beat le pen when the city votes are counted

More holograms?

xp

I really dislike Melenchon and his people, I really do, don't get me wrong, but indeed if they can beat Le Pen tonight (he is just 2% behind) then I'll celebrate.

i know french jewry was freaked out about the idea of melenchon vs. le pen

Out of interest what was the perceived anti-semitism in Melanchon's campaign coming from? (In the UK its almost all nonsense used by the right to discredit Corbyn.)

More holograms = would vote!

we will likely not agree on this topic bc i don't think the attacks on corbyn are unfounded however you can read one article on the theme here:
http://www.jta.org/2017/04/20/news-opinion/world/french-jews-are-worried-about-le-pen-now-another-presidential-candidate-scares-them-too

Mélenchon is not anti-semite, I have a bunch of jewish friends who voted for him.

Not enough in that piece for me, I would need to look at a speech or two. It doesn't help that Henri-Levy is quoted in that piece supporting the void that is Macron.

A void winning in France = v French really.

That is a terribly inaccurate and hate-stirring article Mordy. As I said, the far left has never proven to be a true allie of Jews, but Melenchon is not an anti-semite. Would like to see real proof that I somehow might have missed tbh.

Quotes like:

"“They both traffic in hatred, and they are both a danger to democracy,”"

or

"“I don’t see any significant difference between Melenchon and the National Front on many issues,”"

Yeah, uh-huh, ok. No.

Pick your battles. Le Pen is the real, and explicit, jew hater here. Don't be fooled otherwise.

la loi macron (his signature business-friendly economic policy when he was the business/economy minister) was so politically unpopular with the french socialists they had to use a special procedure to push it through the french legislature

lbi the only person in that article who talks about "anti-semitism" is melenchon himself saying that criticisms of his behavior amount to calling him an anti-semite. i think it's a waste of time personally to prosecute anyone's heart. praising the dignity of protestors who attacked synagogues is enough for me to say that he is not very sympathetic to concerns of the french jewish community and that's sufficient imo.

everything is always unpopular with french socialists.

however, he is supported gay mariage, something Fillion would never ever do (and promised to cancel). Macron is a centrist, if for a bunch of extreme left wing nuts like Jacobin that means being on the right, then so be it.

Melenchon's problem is that he's not a Trotskyite imho. He would've gotten further if he was, instead of this "file under commie" image he loves to feed off of.

and afaict le pen is not an "explicit jew hater" either

Melenchon's stuff with Russia and his past links with Chavez are abhorhent.

Ok Mordy, not intending to change your mind on that. Just saying calling Melenchon an anti-semite, or anti-jew this loosely, is a real, dangerous stretch. But I know I can't compete with the "Jewish Telegraph Agency" with you. And that's ok.

and afaict le pen is not an "explicit jew hater" either

― Mordy, Sunday, April 23, 2017 4:26 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

did you hear what she said about the Vel d'Hiv?

As per Le Monde (http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/04/23/ce-que-propose-emmanuel-macron-dans-son-programme_5115966_4355770.html), Macron promises—

On the economy:

- 60 billion in savings over 5 years
- 120 000 less civil servants
- 50 billion investment (notably 15 for the environment, 5 for healthcare, 5 for agriculture, 5 for public institutions)
- lower social security contributions for employees
- an extra 100 net euros for minimum wage earners who receive the prime d'activité
- 80% will be exempted from the taxe d'habitation (council tax in the UK?)
- you may apply for unemployment benefits even if you resign from your job, as long as you can prove you're actively seeking work

On the EU:

- EU democratic conventions
- a common budget for the EU
- an EU economy and finance minister
- in favour of CETA (free trade agreement with Canada)

On political institutions:

- a law against holding multiple offices
- no more special retirement plan for parliamentarians
- head of state presents his/her results once a year before Congress
- a law preventing elected officials from hiring family members (I wonder why?)
- 1/3 less MP's and senators
- stronger financial penalties against political parties whose candidacies don't respect parity
- use of an emergency procedure in Parliament to accelerate the review of certain bills
- limitation on time writing laws in Parliament, spent evaluating government measures instead

On the environment:

- against endocrine disrupters and pesticides
- renovate 1 million poorly isolated dwellings over 5 years
- turn France into world leader on environmental transition
- 50% organic and/or eco-friendly food in canteens
- further limit vehicle circulation during peak pollution events
- 1000 euro premium if you're buying a new car or a less harmful used car

There's more, of course, but it should give you a more technical idea of what he's aiming for.

yes we discussed it here upthread iirc? denying french culpability in the vichy regime is craven but not the same as hating jews xp

Ok Mordy, not intending to change your mind on that. Just saying calling Melenchon an anti-semite, or anti-jew this loosely, is a real, dangerous stretch. But I know I can't compete with the "Jewish Telegraph Agency" with you. And that's ok.

i think you're ignoring precisely what i wrote but whatever

Because its mostly nonsense.

and afaict le pen is not an "explicit jew hater" either

― Mordy, Sunday, April 23, 2017 8:26 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Are you serious?!

I do remember you somewhat downplaying her Velodrome d'Hive disaster. That's just one example. I'm not even going to google her hatred towards jews, you will do fine on your own. Damn.

if you can't see why french jews would be concerned about a guy who praised protests that involved attacks on synagogue then one of us is in denial here but it isn't me

In a climate where the far-right are getting votes and feeding off hatred forr immigrants and Muslims. They are the ones getting it in the neck. State of this.

xsp lbi she has real efforts to remove antisemitism from the party and has taken a different line from her father as an intentional move. i think plenty can be said to insinuate that she dislikes jews (including the kind of anti-banker language that melanchon has used) and the party has a history but you need to be rigorous about what she has actually said and done and apply the same standards of other candidates (even if you like their platforms more).

I never thought fuckin BHL would have a way to influence even the jews in Pennsylvania on how to see the french's left, and once again, I'm the first who to dislike Melenchon.

The Mélenchon groupies i know here are active in BDS & the like

i'm pretty sure the actual flesh and blood french jews i know and went to school with have made a bigger impact on my perceptions of melenchon than BHL

Also, some stuff that Le Monde doesn't mention in that article:

- more teachers in 'difficult' neighbourhoods
- opening libraries in the evenings and on Sunday
- more medical services reimbursed by social security (notably glasses and prostheses)
- respecting EU fiscal discipline
- no lifting of sanctions against Russia

if you can't see why french jews would be concerned about a guy who praised protests that involved attacks on synagogue then one of us is in denial here but it isn't me

― Mordy, Sunday, April 23, 2017 8:32 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I said I did. I said jews have no friends in extreme right, or left in most cases. You probably ignored that at your will. But calling Melenchon an anti-semite is really a bridge too far.

But whatever. You don't seem particularly knowledgeable about France and the elections, not in this thread anyway. Stick to defending Le Pen for her "real efforts to remove antisemitism from the party".. Sad (extremely sad!) lol... Not arguing with you anymore.

no one called him an antisemite! that was what my post above literally says - that i don't care about prosecuting what he feels in his heart!

why do u think marine expelled her dad from the party lbi? i mean read her actions as cynical and full of shit but you can't not acknowledge there's something there

“I want to congratulate the youth of my country who mobilized in defense of the miserable victims of war crimes in Gaza,” Melenchon said in the speech at a general assembly of his Left Party. “They did so with model discipline when they were pushed to extremes on all sides. They knew how to remain dignified and embodied better than anyone the founding values of the French republic.”

The problem is one quote off a website (and I don't know it *shakes fist at the internet*) that might read this quote in a particular way...do we have a French Jewish socialist association's take on this :-)