French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

from what i read -- but possibly misread, my french is weak -- melenchon isn't conceding on the vote projection, he's waiting for the actual votes in the cities to come in

1.5 hours according to the French Embassy in London.

Mélenchon lost and he knows it: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html

I'd love to point out that Macron (considered on the right by many people) is the only candidate to have expressed hostility towards the french colonial past, and that he has been bashed by both the left and the right on this subject. This is an example of how France's views of race relations is still very very unhealthy and is good snapshot of where France stands politically when it comes to general progressive views.

anyone outside of France had to vote?

apparently it took 3 hours in Tokyo.

― Van Horn Street, Monday, 24 April 2017 08:27 (thirteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

3hrs in Melbourne according to a french mate

anyone outside of France had to vote?

apparently it took 3 hours in Tokyo.

Wait what? How does French absentee voting work?

took my family and I a good 2h 20 minutes, I really hope they will correct in two weeks.

Mélenchon has slipped to 4th with 91/107 departements in. 3.2% gap between Le Pen and Fillon, so the top two seems confirmed.

Wait what? How does French absentee voting work?

― El Tomboto, Monday, 24 April 2017 08:46 (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

have to vote in person, I think. On the plus side overseas citizens get their own members of parliament. The representative for Australia covers every french person from the pacific islands to the finnish border.

There is postal voting for the parliamentary elections but not for presidential for some reason

Global Comfort Foods: Another innocent smoothies twat-trick. amirite?

I was sceptical about the JTA article too but Mélenchon's actual speech is here (h/t Mordy): https://www.youtube.com/embed/GZYM5fpsNL4

Saying "Ils l'ont fait avec une discipline parfaite" a month after the riots does seem hard to defend.

Oh whoops, could a mod remove the automatic video please?

If anyone, like me. is just now reading up on this stuff, here's a recent NY Times piece on the checkered past of some of Le Pen's inner circle, in terms of Nazi sympathies:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/world/europe/marine-le-pen-national-front-party.html

If you're after explicit anti-semitism from Marine Le Pen what about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvL5QF-AnNg

She's asked why she gets a hard time from a certain journalist. She replies that it's because said journalist is married to the director of Publicis. Director is Jewish, Publicis was founded by a Jew who was stripped of his company during the occupation. In the clip Marine Le Pen says" "These people eat together, were brought up together, send their kids to the same school, and have monopolised power by taking it away from the French people". Interviewer starts to utter the work 'antisemitism' before stopping himself.

"denying a nation's culpability in the holocaust is antisemitic but also very very common"

Is it? common among whom?

common among whom?

"Common" is a very slippery standard to prove, but if I were looking for such deniers I'd look first among the citizens of the nation in question. Denying the (proved) culpability of a nation where one isn't a citizen seems like much more of a rarity.

Good to know

What I meant was, dismissing Le Pen's Vichy stance with "everyone does it" seems crazy, bcz i really don't think it is common among Western European politicians to deny their nations' roles in the holocaust

Guess Berlusconi did it, but he is also a massive racist

Did we get this sorted

The Vichy is a long standing French debate. Until 95, the official State line was indeed that Vichy was an illegal occupation body and therefore none of its actions would be recognised as part of French history. Thank God Chircas (one of his main accomplishments) finally dismissed this fallacy.

Sorry should have also specified that it's De Gaulle himself that started this - during and after the war he dismissed the notion that France would ever recognise or be held accountable of Vichy history.

Funny to see how all of a sudden the Le Pens, anti-Gaullist / French Algeria hardliners for most of their history, hide behind De Gaulle. Obviously, FN is filled with antisemites so Vel d'Hiv clearly meant to be a party base-pleaser (although I think MLP herself is fundamentally more of a Wilders type of islamophobe)

marine le pen stepping down as FN leader

in the US I think we call that "a pivot to the center"

playing her cards well

Yep. She'll be running as an independent candidate now.

is there really anyone in France who doesn't know she's the head of the FN

Wow. How is that playing?

Yeah my first thought was "are there that many people that find the name 'Front National' toxic and offputting, but not the name 'Le Pen'?" But I know nothing about French politics really. Also: is this like Trump, where the populist/xenophobe base is primed to read any signals of pivoting with a wink, as in "oh, she has to say that to win over the larger electorates, but we know where she really stands" etc.? Or will shedding her party actually lose some votes?

Just as an outsider this seems desperate, and something that could majorly backfire and end the competition right here and now. But I of course don't know if it makes sense in context. But wow.

This is astounding!

The message she hopes she is sending is probably: Marine Le Pen is something larger than the FN.

with the other parties all lined up behind Macron this makes it v much a "her against the establishment" thing, with her banking on a combination of cult-of-personality and reactionary anti-establishment sentiment to propel her to victory. Seems unlikely but idk.

Yep. From her pov it's a smart move, and nothing to sneeze at. People might have not wanted to vote for her because of FN. this is a desperate (because she's not the fave) but very clever move to unshackle herself from FN and all the bad connotations associated with the party. You'd think people would see through this move, but, it might win her votes.

i'm thinking she is thinking that she basically locked in/trapped the 21 percent that voted for her into voting for her again and now she's going for the undecided/right-leaning centrists that voted for macron

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-MuMJsXgAE5ZSd.jpg

Whole Lotta Pen

xp to myself

~3% difference plus margin of error

she's got a chance

She has a 20%+ gap to cover. We'll see how much dumping the FN baggage gets her pretty shortly, I assume.

ya

between melenchon and hamon supporters, i feel like macron has this in the bag?

lotta melanchon supporters will sit this out

true

it'll be interesting to see how many melenchon supporters vote for macron

Wouldn't feel any candidate in any election anywhere in the world has an election "in the bag" nowadays, but yeah, this should be in the bag for Macron.

I'm more curious how many melanchon voters will vote for Le Pen

Fillon voters won't go for Le Pen and probably will go for Macron. Don't see Le Pen pulling in much of the other voters

Mélenchon has revealed his true colours by acting as if Macron and Le Pen are the same thing. And Macron wasn't even the most openly neoliberal candidate of the leading five. I'm oddly reminded of a Harry Partch title: Delusion of the Fury.

I really don't understand this MLP move - or why it isn't being reported as bizarre and nutty.

I mean I understand in theory that she wants to 'lose the baggage of the FN' ...
But if the FN is unhelpful 'baggage' maybe it was a bad move to be ... leader of it for the last ... several years?

And what voter is going to think: 'Oh, yes, that woman -- the Independent -- she always seems to speak her mind and doesn't have any truck with party politics'. I mean ... she has been leader of a party for years up until 5 minutes ago, and says she will go back to being leader of it !

It's one of the most bonkers things I have ever heard of in politics.

Uuh guys, Marine Le Pen didn't go independant, it's just that for the rest of campaign she won't oversee the inner workings of the party.