French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-MuMJsXgAE5ZSd.jpg

Whole Lotta Pen

xp to myself

~3% difference plus margin of error

she's got a chance

She has a 20%+ gap to cover. We'll see how much dumping the FN baggage gets her pretty shortly, I assume.

ya

between melenchon and hamon supporters, i feel like macron has this in the bag?

lotta melanchon supporters will sit this out

true

it'll be interesting to see how many melenchon supporters vote for macron

Wouldn't feel any candidate in any election anywhere in the world has an election "in the bag" nowadays, but yeah, this should be in the bag for Macron.

I'm more curious how many melanchon voters will vote for Le Pen

Fillon voters won't go for Le Pen and probably will go for Macron. Don't see Le Pen pulling in much of the other voters

Mélenchon has revealed his true colours by acting as if Macron and Le Pen are the same thing. And Macron wasn't even the most openly neoliberal candidate of the leading five. I'm oddly reminded of a Harry Partch title: Delusion of the Fury.

I really don't understand this MLP move - or why it isn't being reported as bizarre and nutty.

I mean I understand in theory that she wants to 'lose the baggage of the FN' ...
But if the FN is unhelpful 'baggage' maybe it was a bad move to be ... leader of it for the last ... several years?

And what voter is going to think: 'Oh, yes, that woman -- the Independent -- she always seems to speak her mind and doesn't have any truck with party politics'. I mean ... she has been leader of a party for years up until 5 minutes ago, and says she will go back to being leader of it !

It's one of the most bonkers things I have ever heard of in politics.

Uuh guys, Marine Le Pen didn't go independant, it's just that for the rest of campaign she won't oversee the inner workings of the party.

^^^been a lot of bonkers things in politics recently tbf :(

there was talk after the US election about guilty Trump voters, ppl who wanted to vote against Clinton and were looking for a way to justify a Trump vote to themselves, idk if there's an equivalent demographic in France, and if MLP not officially being the FN candidate would make them more likely to go with her?

I really don't see where she can gather the millions and millions of vote to gain on Macron, perhaps a little amount of Fillonistes will go Le Pen but that's about it? Maybe Sarkozy will have a darker role in all of this, which would be a classic dick Sarkozy move. But seriously, if 60% of the Melenchon voters and half of the Fillion voters go Macron, she's done.

And her move as a fictional non-FN candidate will be of very very marginal consequence, the FN political machine will continue to campaign for her.

that clears up why english-speaking media said it was temporary

it's a leave of absence and would be returning in a couple weeks

this is what i get for being too lazy to read french news

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/24/marine-le-pen-se-met-en-conge-de-la-presidence-du-front-national_5116791_4854003.html

Marine Le Pen tente de se forger une stature rassembleuse, hors du cadre du Front national. Dans cet objectif, la candidate, qualifiée pour le second tour de l’élection présidentielle, a annoncé, lundi 24 avril, qu’elle se mettait « en congé de la présidence du Front national ».

...

Selon les statuts du FN, « en cas d’absence ou de maladie » du président en exercice, c’est au premier vice-président d’assurer la présidence du parti. En l’occurrence, à Jean-François Jalkh, qui est aussi député européen. Un homme à la fidélité éprouvée, aussi bien par Jean-Marie Le Pen que par Marine Le Pen.

L’annonce de Mme Le Pen est avant tout de pure forme : les instances du parti - toutes dirigées par le président - ne devraient a priori pas se réunir pendant les deux semaines à venir. Mais, selon l’entourage de la candidate, cette mise en retrait doit lui permettre une plus grande liberté pour pouvoir amender certains aspects de son projet et rallier des soutiens.

L’eurodéputée, qui estime qu’il lui manque « dix petits points » pour l’emporter, a d’ailleurs fait lundi soir des appels du pied au candidat souverainiste Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (4,7 % des voix). « Il a un projet qui est extrêmement proche du nôtre », a argumenté Mme Le Pen, qui a aussi soutenu qu’il y avait « des contacts en cours » avec des membres du parti Les Républicains (LR).

also 10% away is kinda what my thinking was, which was already discussed upthread that might not work in her favour, since fillon supporters might sit this out. i'm guessing she/her party is tallying up le pen and fillon votters vs macron, melenchon, and hamon voters, which means she would be about 9ish points behind? or maybe she's referring to something else?

that's her own estimation. dunno the maths behind it and if it's accurate (it could be!).

absolutely, it's her own, and was the back of the napkin math i was going by upthread

i woke up super confident she was done and now i'm super worried thanks infinty

tbf french radio was referring to it as a resignation today as well

you guys don't have anything stupid like an electoral college, right

xxp

haha

dix petits points!

who knows, hoping macron

thought you were in canada tho

canadian with french origins! my whole family lives there.

Mélenchon has revealed his true colours by acting as if Macron and Le Pen are the same thing. And Macron wasn't even the most openly neoliberal candidate of the leading five. I'm oddly reminded of a Harry Partch title: Delusion of the Fury.

― pomenitul, Monday, 24 April 2017 20:49 (one hour ago) Permalink

Or he doesn't want to act like a servant of neo-lib interests. If he supports Macron the far-right can say he is an establishment guy in 2022.

Melenchon supporters can make their minds up.

xp

nice

might be in paris next year

Let me guess, because neoliberalism and neofascism are two sides of the same coin? Ite, missa est.

That would require a serious tectonic plate event non xp

Or he doesn't want to act like a servant of neo-lib interests. If he supports Macron the far-right can say he is an establishment guy in 2022.

Melenchon supporters can make their minds up.

― xyzzzz__, Monday, April 24, 2017 6:06 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

That's a pretty selfish excuse, who cares about who calls what in 2022 if Le Pen is president until then.

Don't worry, dialectically speaking, Trump is just the necessary first step before the final American utopia. There's always an Antichrist before the Second Coming.

If anything, an explicit Mélenchon support would have proved Le Pen wrong when it comes to Macron being the establishment candidate.

It's true that the idea of one leader endorsing another seems overblown to me -- why should their voters necessarily vote for the person they recommend? There is something patronizing about it. As xyzz says, a large body of socialist voters might be trusted to make up their own minds about the FN, and an instruction from Mélenchon might only do harm overall.

But then maybe it's just that it's a model wholly absent from UK culture where literally no party leader in my lifetime has ever said 'vote for this other party', except possibly re Ireland where eg Labour might say vote SDLP, Con vote UUP, etc.

It's always been this way in France. In context, his decision is glaring, all the more so when you consider the sheer amount of Mélenchon voters who don't plan on voting for Macron.

marine le pen stepping down as FN leader

Who is going to fall for this horseshit? Are the French that stupid?

it's both a feature of the french election system, having two rounds, and of the particular results we got this year (4 candidates with 15% plus, one with 5% plus, another with 3% plus), basically Macron and Le Pen will fight for these 'other votes'. Plus the fact that while France is a deeply divided country, now it is having the one moment where all parties, all people can finally stand up together against the danger of the far right, when someone decides not be part of this, for reasons that can be only seen as selfish, it's not a good look. Christ, even Fillion had no qualms about calling out Le Pen and supporting Macron, and he courted the far right electorate for months and months now. Since, every vote counts (there is no electoral college Shakey), it's not just about beating Le Pen, it's about showing her that her ideals are not welcomed in France, the ideal situation would be that she does less than her father did in 2002 (20%) but she already did better in first round so it won't happen. In any case, the FN must understand than they haven't made progress in the last 15 years. Mélenchon threw a wrench in that, it's deplorable, really. If he were the candidate against Le Pen in the second round, I'd have absolutely no problem voting for him and yet I can't stand the dude and his Chavez-ist idiocy (dude also enjoys Putin somehow).

But her ideals are the second most popular ideals in France!

Why is anyone confident that Fillion votes are not Le Pen votes?

The people who would have defected from Fillon to Le Pen, they alreadh have, what with his unbelievale scandals. The figures of 19% are people who were on the right enough to note vote for a guy like Macron, but preferring a corrupted little shit to the far right.

That's a pretty selfish excuse, who cares about who calls what in 2022 if Le Pen is president until then.

― Van Horn Street, Monday, 24 April 2017 22:32 (yesterday) Permalink

Its a weird thing that just because I vote for candidate x that I'd follow his recommendation for the 2nd round.

Similarly you can vote for a candidate you agree with on most things, not on all things.

All that aside I have seen a similar trend re: Corbyn not standing alongside Cameron in the pro-EU campaign. Fuck being servile to these awful people. They may not discriminate against you based on the colour of your skin but they will make you homeless and cut your rights in other ways. Not interested.

I have seen people also say it should've been a v back-handed kind of endorsement and that's probably as far as I'd go but it doesn't seem that much of a distinction between that and non-endorsement.

It would've been weird to strike a tone of a radical new direction to then say vote for reformism that isn't going to work.

except.. in 2002 he told his supporters to vote for chirac - http://bit.ly/2q84E0e

Learning from past mistakes. Consulting with supporters is a good step.

Resistance 101: when you are fighting creeping dictatorship, you unite in resistance and look at the political colours of your comrades after the battle has been won

Might need to take more than the introductory class bro

That wouldn't change the basic idea, though. Not wanting to unite against Le Pen because Macron isn't pure enough is an embarrassment. Let him defeat her, then when his project fail, scoop in and pick up the disappointed voters.

I don't find Mélenchon's hesitancy over endorsing Macron particularly opaque. Presumably he has the 2002 runoff between Chirac and Le Pen (père) occupying his thoughts. None of the panic and urgency which attended that election really seems to be obvious here – not because Le Pen Jr is not a fascist, but because she looks very unlikely* to win. Obviously, in a choice between a crook and a fascist, you choose the crook. The question is what you do about the crook afterwards. The same goes for a vapid telegenic neoliberal.

There might be several components to this way of thinking: for instance that a negligible proportion of Mélenchon's first round voters will transfer to Le Pen in the second round (because the 'horseshoe theory' of ideology is largely nonsense), that most of his voters will move to Macron anyway, and that too rapid an endorsement risks making it difficult to credibly resist Macron's planned cuts, for instance of 120,000 civil service jobs. There may well also be a touch of irritation that liberals feel entitled to the votes of the left, but rarely brook the same argument with the terms reversed when a left insurgency is riding high in the polls. It isn't hard to understand the anxiety that the relief of an anti-fascist victory in this election might make it harder to press Macron on his economic plan; it's legitimate too to fear that if it's enacted, the FN may bounce back stronger still from this defeat. (In truth, I think this will depend more on how the PS is likely to respond to him after the forthcoming Assembly elections.)

The Sciences Po polling suggests that the biggest move from Mélenchon's supporters will be toward Macron, then perhaps to abstention (this diagram likely overstates the risk of abstention, as it transposes all 'no preference' respondents to abstention) – yet even then, Macron wins. Were I a French left-winger, I would be tempted by abstention – but being by nature pessimistic, especially these days, and respecting the usefulness of such exercises in at least restraining fascists from occupying high office, I would then probably go and add my vote to Macron's tally. And then I would wonder what to do about Macron, spasme du système, after he wins. (http://blog.mondediplo.net/2017-04-12-Macron-le-spasme-du-systeme -- warning, very French.)

(*Yes, yes, I know.)

^^^this, from james butler's facebook, puts the case most carefully from an experienced UK antifa activist (he's obviously also assuming that melenchon will in some way and at some point join the unity)

at issue is less "macron isn't PURE" as "neoliberal globalism and austerity are the PRIME CAUSE of the current fascist emergency", which as a position is obviously undermined by too speedy and kneejerk a turnabout endorsement -- and also that defeating the fascists isn't something that's going to happen purely or only electorally

this is the vote transfer diagram he's referring to:
https://scontent-ams3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/17992235_10102056654969119_2849265000929339157_n.jpg?oh=70f355edab29f099d972b33da58bab77&oe=5985F9CA

Is Macron calling for austerity?

(have to admit some of the reason i decided to post that was, like butler, my enjoyment -- from a english sub editor's perspective -- of the monde diplomatique headline "Macron, le spasme du système")

(also i haven't read any of the monde diplomatique piece -- as noted above, my french is weak)

xp

from reuters:

SAVINGS IN PUBLIC SPENDING

A target of 60 billion euros for savings on spending is so far more of a projection than a plan, premised on 10 billion euros of unemployment benefit savings generated by a drop in the jobless rate to 7 percent.

Macron also sees savings of 15 billion euros in public health spending due to greater efficiency.

Another 25 billion is predicted to come from public service modernization, of which a small part would come from payroll cost falls due to a 120,000 cut in headcount, of which 50,000 will be in the central civil service.

The remaining 10 billion would come from cuts in local authorities spending, including a 70,000 reduction in headcount.

three decades of cuts in local authority spending has been quietly catastrophic in the UK, in respect of the brexit-voting "left behind" communities (and the now almost grotesque centralisation of power) -- i'm not qualified to comment really on its equivalent in france, tho i find it hard to believe it makes things better*

*it all comes down to bins