French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

Girlfriend quite worried that participation levels being the same as for the first round is a bad sign - since she fears quite a lot of leftists will stay home.

She's done her best to badger her family - sister isn't voting, father is handing in a protest vote to change the presidential system, brother said he will "decide when I get to the ballot". Apparently she burned her chances after having convinced them all to vote Hollande last time. I don't understand how leftists can be this blasé at such a moment, it's disgraceful.

I don't understand how leftists can be this blasé at such a moment, it's disgraceful.

exhibit a

Or he doesn't want to act like a servant of neo-lib interests. If he supports Macron the far-right can say he is an establishment guy in 2022.

Melenchon supporters can make their minds up.

How is his programme not a continuation of things, kicking-down-the-can stuff that just leaks votes to the far-right. This is not a game. Endorsement stuff reeks of that.

Be happy for the crumbs you have France! Stop flirting with racists and don't demand too much.

etc

Q: If Le Pen were to pull out a win, what will the makeup of the legislature look like and could they stop a Frexit from taking place if opposed?

Record abstention levels since 1969.

Really bad feeling about this.

same.

Early exit poll suggesting Macron well ahead fwiw.

yeah i mean, i'm loathe to count chickens, but the polls were way way in favour of macron, it's not exactly like brexit/trump.

'Official projection', Macron 30% ahead.

it's just been called for macron, i think

Emmanuel Macron est élu président de la République avec 65,1 % des voix (estimation Ipsos) #Presidentelle2017 https://t.co/WAwLd2yrZ5 pic.twitter.com/pZ0Vkj4iTD

— Le Monde (@lemondefr) May 7, 2017

comforting

35%

35 fuckin percent

^^^this is the state vote estimate not that actual vote count, which will not come in for some time)

(to date the estimate has generally been within 1% of the outcome, so fingers x-d)

Le LOL.

It looks like Le Pen is only scoring marginally higher than the abstention count.

Wait, the maths wouldn't add up? I have no idea how abstentions/vote blanc count in France, but if I understand correctly she did 35% of the 75% of the people who voted, right?

It seems the FN won't exist anymore, that Le Pen will build a new party.

When Le Pen's dad ran in the second round against Chiraq, Chirac won by 80%. And Chirac is strongly to the right of Macron. So this 65/34 result is not very reassuring from a French perspective.

That being said: WHEW.

he started his party about a year ago. i think it is a pretty good result.

now let's ship Macron and Trudeau. Madeau sounds better than Trucron.

this is beautiful:

you ok hun? @wollygogg pic.twitter.com/iolH2ZZA1P

— ryan (@ryxnf) May 7, 2017

Good, expected result for Macron. I think 65/35 is a decent margin. Lots of work to be done so Le Pen won't win it in five years though.

xp We can embed tweets now?

etc

― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 7 May 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

LOL I've been clear you vote for Macron and opose what -- at least from what I have seen -- will be his programme. Melenchon supporters clearly made their choice.

finding any degree of nuance or caveat applied to jubilation over this unbearable to listen to
such a relief

25 point margin!

30 even! I'm bad at math.

Congratulations to the people of France for seeing the bigger picture.

Even though macron seems like a dork

I'm happy we beat the fascist so that I can get citizenship and vote against her in five years.

pas-de-calais 1st departement so far to show a silm (<5%) majority for le pen, rest of the map is a pleasing brick red at the moment

this is good https://medium.com/@thegrugq/a-list-minute-influence-op-by-data-ddos-3698906d8836

w/paris, rhone and bouche de rhones left to declare, only pas de calais and aisnes so far gone to mlp

pdc should secede and join the uk, sort out that pesky immigrants running through the tunnel issue once and for all

Today was a good day.

yay the lousy candidate beat the unspeakable one

vive le macaron

Deja vu, eh Morbz?

Le Pen only carrying pas de calais, aisnes and les pays du kek

Aside the big neo-fascist flop after so much hype, I do draw some comfort that this is also a bad result for TM ... and Morrissey.

I can't believe most of Melechon's voters ended up voting against the fascist, it's almost as if the horseshoe theory is complete bullshit.

^

Marginally more votes went from Fillon to MLP than Melenchon to MLP. Endorsements didn't matter, its as if people can make their minds up.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_Sf36FW0AEuXKV.jpg:large

interesting piece by olivier roy on likelihood of muslim melenchon voters abstaining in final vote (france doesn't collect voting data by ethnic or religious group, so it's hard to pin this down: roy is generally very good value though)

try again:

here is the piece by roy: http://www.boundary2.org/2017/05/olivier-roy-french-elections-catholics-vote-catholic-muslims-vote-secular/

and here is the diagram:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_Sf36FW0AEuXKV.jpg:large

I'm the guy voting Macron in the first ballot and Le Pen in the second

Marginally more votes went from Fillon to MLP than Melenchon to MLP.

don't have an FT subscription so i don't know if the diagram's from crunching the state's voting numbers or from a harris exit poll (which might be less reliable)

MLP soundly beaten into third place by Abstention/Spoiled Ballot (approx EM44-(nah)34-MLP22).

Max effect of those spoiled ballots = difference between 70/30 (they all should've been for Macron) and 59/41 (they all should've been for Le Pen).

2002 was really different, I think. Jospin didn't clear the field of other left/centre-left candidates, barely campaigned (if I recall), and ended up with such a fractured left-wing vote that he trailed in third. What followed were mass demonstrations against Le Pen Snr and practically every French socialist voting for the "crook" Chirac. There's distaste and resistance this time, but not the outright NO F-ING WAY of 2002.

So that gif of Le Pen crying on E1 that everyone's gleefully sharing on Facebook, people seem to think it's related to her losing the election but there's no context provided so I reckogn it might just as easily be an old clip of her talking about the death of her parents* or something. Anyone know?

*Le Pen the very rare case where that needn't provoke empathy either, considering her dad.

Also he isn't dead. Maybe it was Thatcher dying, that provided the hilarious spectacle of a blubbing George Osborne.