French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

35%

35 fuckin percent

^^^this is the state vote estimate not that actual vote count, which will not come in for some time)

(to date the estimate has generally been within 1% of the outcome, so fingers x-d)

Le LOL.

It looks like Le Pen is only scoring marginally higher than the abstention count.

Wait, the maths wouldn't add up? I have no idea how abstentions/vote blanc count in France, but if I understand correctly she did 35% of the 75% of the people who voted, right?

It seems the FN won't exist anymore, that Le Pen will build a new party.

When Le Pen's dad ran in the second round against Chiraq, Chirac won by 80%. And Chirac is strongly to the right of Macron. So this 65/34 result is not very reassuring from a French perspective.

That being said: WHEW.

he started his party about a year ago. i think it is a pretty good result.

now let's ship Macron and Trudeau. Madeau sounds better than Trucron.

this is beautiful:

you ok hun? @wollygogg pic.twitter.com/iolH2ZZA1P

— ryan (@ryxnf) May 7, 2017

Good, expected result for Macron. I think 65/35 is a decent margin. Lots of work to be done so Le Pen won't win it in five years though.

xp We can embed tweets now?

etc

― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 7 May 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

LOL I've been clear you vote for Macron and opose what -- at least from what I have seen -- will be his programme. Melenchon supporters clearly made their choice.

finding any degree of nuance or caveat applied to jubilation over this unbearable to listen to
such a relief

25 point margin!

30 even! I'm bad at math.

Congratulations to the people of France for seeing the bigger picture.

Even though macron seems like a dork

I'm happy we beat the fascist so that I can get citizenship and vote against her in five years.

pas-de-calais 1st departement so far to show a silm (<5%) majority for le pen, rest of the map is a pleasing brick red at the moment

this is good https://medium.com/@thegrugq/a-list-minute-influence-op-by-data-ddos-3698906d8836

w/paris, rhone and bouche de rhones left to declare, only pas de calais and aisnes so far gone to mlp

pdc should secede and join the uk, sort out that pesky immigrants running through the tunnel issue once and for all

Today was a good day.

yay the lousy candidate beat the unspeakable one

vive le macaron

Deja vu, eh Morbz?

Le Pen only carrying pas de calais, aisnes and les pays du kek

Aside the big neo-fascist flop after so much hype, I do draw some comfort that this is also a bad result for TM ... and Morrissey.

I can't believe most of Melechon's voters ended up voting against the fascist, it's almost as if the horseshoe theory is complete bullshit.

^

Marginally more votes went from Fillon to MLP than Melenchon to MLP. Endorsements didn't matter, its as if people can make their minds up.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_Sf36FW0AEuXKV.jpg:large

interesting piece by olivier roy on likelihood of muslim melenchon voters abstaining in final vote (france doesn't collect voting data by ethnic or religious group, so it's hard to pin this down: roy is generally very good value though)

try again:

here is the piece by roy: http://www.boundary2.org/2017/05/olivier-roy-french-elections-catholics-vote-catholic-muslims-vote-secular/

and here is the diagram:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_Sf36FW0AEuXKV.jpg:large

I'm the guy voting Macron in the first ballot and Le Pen in the second

Marginally more votes went from Fillon to MLP than Melenchon to MLP.

don't have an FT subscription so i don't know if the diagram's from crunching the state's voting numbers or from a harris exit poll (which might be less reliable)

MLP soundly beaten into third place by Abstention/Spoiled Ballot (approx EM44-(nah)34-MLP22).

Max effect of those spoiled ballots = difference between 70/30 (they all should've been for Macron) and 59/41 (they all should've been for Le Pen).

2002 was really different, I think. Jospin didn't clear the field of other left/centre-left candidates, barely campaigned (if I recall), and ended up with such a fractured left-wing vote that he trailed in third. What followed were mass demonstrations against Le Pen Snr and practically every French socialist voting for the "crook" Chirac. There's distaste and resistance this time, but not the outright NO F-ING WAY of 2002.

So that gif of Le Pen crying on E1 that everyone's gleefully sharing on Facebook, people seem to think it's related to her losing the election but there's no context provided so I reckogn it might just as easily be an old clip of her talking about the death of her parents* or something. Anyone know?

*Le Pen the very rare case where that needn't provoke empathy either, considering her dad.

Also he isn't dead. Maybe it was Thatcher dying, that provided the hilarious spectacle of a blubbing George Osborne.

Haha yeah there's that too. But, y'know, just assuming it's some occasion where tears are more socially acceptable than losing a political race.

the newspaper reports said she spent the evening of her defeat dancing "le rock and roll" (which is a kind of crying IMO)

LOL

The relief last night when I saw Macron had beat the projections by a 10% swing was VRAIMENT PALPABLE

Never has the analysts' commentary seemed so totally beside the point either. So little patience for any of it

just found out Mac's wife is his high school teacher; vive le France

in high school terms, wouldn't that be tu en as de la chance!

I can't believe most of Melechon's voters ended up voting against the fascist, it's almost as if the horseshoe theory is complete bullshit.

― Matt DC, Monday, May 8, 2017 5:11 AM

@adamjohnsonNYC
the horseshoe theory: when you're literally too stupid to think in more than two dimensions.

Sure, but denying the existence of affinities between seemingly polar opposites is no less one-dimensional. The fact of the matter is that quite a few Mélenchon voters did end up picking Le Pen. Even not voting at all or blank voting in a runoff featuring the far right is a form of complicity as far as I'm concerned.

this is pretty funny
https://www.buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/how-the-american-far-right-tired-and-failed-to-hijack-the?utm_term=.dyLABApNO#.aiGaParMq

Thinking far left and far right is far apart is funnily enough one dimension from even being two-dimensional. Hilarious! Right?

to be honest i don't see the huge difference between le pen and mélenchon. they are both nationalist and anti-european. they both want a strong state which redistributes lots of money from the rich to the poor. they both don't understand how economy works. there is one thing that sets them apart though. she would like to get rid of all muslim people right now, he doesn't.

How is Mélenchon nationalist? I've not heard him say anything other than the usual platitudes all candidates (Macron included) have to trot out. Unless you're just using nationalist as a synonym for euroskeptic.

Alex - please explain to us how the economy works.

The fact of the matter is that quite a few Mélenchon voters did end up picking Le Pen. Even not voting at all or blank voting in a runoff featuring the far right is a form of complicity as far as I'm concerned.

LOL what a load of shit: yes a few do this, its less than Fillon but don't let that stop you. These Trots - now they are the monsters!