French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

I'm the guy voting Macron in the first ballot and Le Pen in the second

Marginally more votes went from Fillon to MLP than Melenchon to MLP.

don't have an FT subscription so i don't know if the diagram's from crunching the state's voting numbers or from a harris exit poll (which might be less reliable)

MLP soundly beaten into third place by Abstention/Spoiled Ballot (approx EM44-(nah)34-MLP22).

Max effect of those spoiled ballots = difference between 70/30 (they all should've been for Macron) and 59/41 (they all should've been for Le Pen).

2002 was really different, I think. Jospin didn't clear the field of other left/centre-left candidates, barely campaigned (if I recall), and ended up with such a fractured left-wing vote that he trailed in third. What followed were mass demonstrations against Le Pen Snr and practically every French socialist voting for the "crook" Chirac. There's distaste and resistance this time, but not the outright NO F-ING WAY of 2002.

So that gif of Le Pen crying on E1 that everyone's gleefully sharing on Facebook, people seem to think it's related to her losing the election but there's no context provided so I reckogn it might just as easily be an old clip of her talking about the death of her parents* or something. Anyone know?

*Le Pen the very rare case where that needn't provoke empathy either, considering her dad.

Also he isn't dead. Maybe it was Thatcher dying, that provided the hilarious spectacle of a blubbing George Osborne.

Haha yeah there's that too. But, y'know, just assuming it's some occasion where tears are more socially acceptable than losing a political race.

the newspaper reports said she spent the evening of her defeat dancing "le rock and roll" (which is a kind of crying IMO)

LOL

The relief last night when I saw Macron had beat the projections by a 10% swing was VRAIMENT PALPABLE

Never has the analysts' commentary seemed so totally beside the point either. So little patience for any of it

just found out Mac's wife is his high school teacher; vive le France

in high school terms, wouldn't that be tu en as de la chance!

I can't believe most of Melechon's voters ended up voting against the fascist, it's almost as if the horseshoe theory is complete bullshit.

― Matt DC, Monday, May 8, 2017 5:11 AM

@adamjohnsonNYC
the horseshoe theory: when you're literally too stupid to think in more than two dimensions.

Sure, but denying the existence of affinities between seemingly polar opposites is no less one-dimensional. The fact of the matter is that quite a few Mélenchon voters did end up picking Le Pen. Even not voting at all or blank voting in a runoff featuring the far right is a form of complicity as far as I'm concerned.

this is pretty funny
https://www.buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/how-the-american-far-right-tired-and-failed-to-hijack-the?utm_term=.dyLABApNO#.aiGaParMq

Thinking far left and far right is far apart is funnily enough one dimension from even being two-dimensional. Hilarious! Right?

to be honest i don't see the huge difference between le pen and mélenchon. they are both nationalist and anti-european. they both want a strong state which redistributes lots of money from the rich to the poor. they both don't understand how economy works. there is one thing that sets them apart though. she would like to get rid of all muslim people right now, he doesn't.

How is Mélenchon nationalist? I've not heard him say anything other than the usual platitudes all candidates (Macron included) have to trot out. Unless you're just using nationalist as a synonym for euroskeptic.

Alex - please explain to us how the economy works.

The fact of the matter is that quite a few Mélenchon voters did end up picking Le Pen. Even not voting at all or blank voting in a runoff featuring the far right is a form of complicity as far as I'm concerned.

LOL what a load of shit: yes a few do this, its less than Fillon but don't let that stop you. These Trots - now they are the monsters!

Nah, they're both monstrous depending on the situation, and not always for the same reasons.

alex it's not ilx's job to google the differences for you but i have to say that you must have only been barely paying attention to these two candidates to think that they have similar programs?

I've been paying attention and they are quite similar (two thirds of their programme anyway). Direct consequence of MLP's strategy to drop the christian traditionalist wing of her party and chase the working class ant-globalist vote.

Gonna have to say I'm skeptical of anti-inequality policies being the atrocity that unites the far left and the far right against the virtous centre though. Le Pen chasing some measures because they're popular isn't really confirmation of the horseshoe theory imo.

yes. melenchon can't help it if le pen co-opted his (any many other candidates') stances on retirement at 60, topping up pensions and the minimum wage, etc. which she did because she has no actual positive ideas of her own about the economy.

she had lots of other ideas tho. i.e. le pen wanted to end gay marriage and adoption, bring back longer and stronger prison sentences and compulsory military service. she wanted explicit discrimination in health and housing in preference of french-born people.

if you want to say their stances on europe were the same i dunno what to say to that - they were not. melenchon wanted debt forgiveness, to create a partnership with southern european nations against austerity, and an end to the EU stability pact by replacing the 'golden rule' of deficits under 3% of GDP with a 'green rule' that resource consumption be sustainable. le pen's "proposal" if you can call it that was to leave the EU and return to the franc.

https://apnews.com/96dd4386101b4208896f949f3c5a943e/US-watched-Russia-penetrate-French-systems-during-election

hottttt

Nah, they're both monstrous depending on the situation, and not always for the same reasons.

― pomenitul, Tuesday, 9 May 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

You're full of shit. This is from the piece mark s linked to.

Will some poor Muslims vote for Le Pen because they support the FN’s populist agenda? A bit difficult because the FN is still racist. Will they vote for Macron to fight racism? Not necessarily because Macron embodies, according to both Melenchon and Marine Le Pen, the global world of finance. The most probable option is that they will abstain, as many of them told me in Dreux.

I don't think you can pronounce judgement. Macron or Le Pen have nothing to offer a section of the electorate.

Re: that last link, what does everyone think of Russia's influence (or lack thereof) in this election, anyway? Was the fact that traditional media couldn't report on stuff when it happened actually a positive (I imagine many of the ppl who could be influenced by it to be older and not good with compooters)?

the leak was certainly timed to coincide with the blackout, so they obviously thought it would help, or at least create uncertainty.

uncertainty seemed to be the best they could hope for given it was 9gb of often literally off topic stuff, not even from the campaign. it was an uphill battle for them because macron was a relatively late arrival without much of a paper trail.

some NPR interviewee opined that Putin wasn't really trying hard to influence the French election, so much as to reinforce his domestic narrative of Russia's global power and to flash a hint at his concealed intelligence capabilities to a foreign audience.

A win they wanted to lose (US)
A not-win they were ambivalent (NL)
A loss they wanted to win (FR)
RU needs a win like a junky needs a fix

— the grugq (@thegrugq) May 8, 2017

…and Germany, you’re next. https://t.co/49R8KZLRdR

— the grugq (@thegrugq) May 8, 2017

DM'd an ex in Paris, "What the fuck have you idiots done?" She said this, pic.twitter.com/84TpR9bxzn

— Gavin McInnes (@Gavin_McInnes) May 9, 2017

Putin will happy enough with the UK election.

Not sure what's going on here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/marion-marechal-le-pen-pegged-future-front-national-leader-quits/

This is excellent news. Marion seemed way smarter and reasonable than her aunt. She seemed the only one in FN able to go fully mainstream

Reasonable? I wouldn't say that. She was openly more radical than her aunt, while the latter was trying to make the FN more 'normal' Marion was there to keep the hardcore fanbase motivated.

Yeah. Poor wording. I meant that she seemed more able to reason, more rational and hence more dangerous than MLP

valls says he's standing as an En Marche candidate in june. and hollande apparently voted for macron.... in the first round!!

None of this surprising, is it?

i dunno man, if i was hamon i'd kinda hope the current president, from my own party, would vote for me??

Next it'll turn out Hamon voted Macron in the first round too.

you should write for gorafi :)

How is Mélenchon Nationalist?

Alex - please explain to us how the economy works.

And picking a country which is economically more successful than most others and criticising its economic policy says everything about the economic knowledge of Mr. Mélenchon.

Yeah, couldn't imagine why anyone in Europe would have issues with German economic policy rn -_-

Yeah, couldn't imagine why anyone in Europe would have issues with German economic policy rn -_-

― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, May 10, 2017 2:44 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

☚(ﾟヮﾟ☚)

that post makes me think more highly of Mélenchon tbh

'necessary reforms'

http://cepr.net/images/Book2_16029_image001.png

That said, "German economic success" is demonstrably responsible for the imbalance in the eurozone. This isn't controversial. It runs huge surpluses, which necessarily means huge deficits for others.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11584031/Germanys-record-trade-surplus-is-a-bigger-threat-to-euro-than-Greece.html

This is the fifth consecutive year that Germany’s surplus has been above 6pc of GDP. The EU’s Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure states that the Commission should launch infringement proceedings if this occurs for three years in a row, unless there is a clear reason not to.

Article was written in 2015. Last year's surplus surpassed any of the previous years.

I am happy that the French were wise enough not to follow this rat catcher. Unlike the Germans in 1933.

― Alex in Spree-Athen (alex in mainhattan), Wednesday, May 10, 2017 9:44 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Ya I think some further study of the phenomenon of Nazism and personality of Hitler may be in order hear