French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

Driving from the Basque Country to the Netherlands last week, all through France, it was astonishing to see just how many French drivers have put a 'gillet jaune' in front of their car window, or in between a closed car window. The scale of it is huge, even with those who aren't taking it to the streets.
At our Campanile just above Paris we caught a half our long reportage about some 'gillet jaunes' from Normandy. Working class people feeling they can finally make themselves heard. In their trail though, a potpourri of trouble makers: extreme right, football hooligans, youths looking for a nice riot. It has gotten diffuse and unclear as fast as the protests emerged.

The true question is whether the disobedience can be constructive, what comes the day after, can the progressives in France, and all over the world, use this energy so instead of violence we have images of constructing equal and egalitarian societies?

— Pamela Anderson (@pamfoundation) December 3, 2018

i’m in avignon right now and same story pretty much, tons of yellow vests on car dashes. there was a pretty big march through town on saturday afternoon that seemed peaceful enough, just chanting and whatnot. later on somebody started what looked/smelled like a tire fire on the main road. we were walking back to our hotel when another small fire broke out near us and sent people scurrying down the side streets. looks like some windows were smashed as well.

things have been normal for the past two days. we’re going to be in paris this coming saturday which will be interesting.

I'm just talking to an Italian guy in my work who's going there this weekend too.

unless you're going to the Champs-Elysées (which, why), you'll probably not notice anything in Paris. I live like 2 miles away and haven't seen a thing.

tomorrow may be loltastic as a bunch of lycées (including my son's) are going to have blocuses vaguely associated with this + Parcoursup + it's December and we don't wanna go to class, so there'll be more stuff on fire with that

yeah we’re staying on the left bank so i suspect we’ll just limit our wandering on saturday.

Here is a thread of the texts we've translated in collaboration with comrades in France & elsewhere. Images of cop cars on fire are cool but getting a direct, street-level understanding of the situation is also necessary if we want to learn from this insurrectionary unfolding. https://t.co/H4ejC326sG

— e̳d̳i̳c̳i̳o̳n̳e̳s̳ ̳i̳n̳éd̳i̳t̳o̳s̳ (@edcns_ineditos) December 3, 2018

So the eco fuel tax, which set this whole thing off, is going to be suspended as per the Guardian. Interesting to see if this is going to make the gilets jaunes thing fizzle out or not.

I doubt it. We've reached the 'soyez réalistes, demandez l'impossible' stage. Unlike in May 1968, however, there are more than a few fascists mixed in, unfortunately, such as the bunch who brandished the Celtic Cross on Saturday, reclaiming 'justice' for Esteban Morillo, who murdered the antifa protester Clément Méric. Or the 'gilets jaunes' spokesperson who requested that the government be dissolved and redeployed under a new prime minister: the general Pierre de Villiers, 'un véritable commandant'. Civilisation and its discontents…

Yeah, but this is the thing, it's such a heterogeneous crowd that I think it'll be quite difficult for either the left or the far right to co-opt it. As seen by the fact that every "spokesperson" immediately gets denounced.

Yeah, as it stands, it's as heterogenous as it gets, but there are ways to shape shapelessness, for better or worse. We'll see, I suppose.

When I read stuff like this, from Le Monde's live feed –

"Il y a eu tant de mépris et tant de choses qui ne vont pas que cela ne change rien. On ressent une accumulation de ras-le-bol qui fait qu’on veut bien plus", renchérit Elodie Renault, une esthéticienne en congé parental. "Il faut une augmentation du pouvoir d’achat ça veut dire une hausse des salaires, des retraites, des indemnités chômage", ajoute-t-elle.

– I have no idea what to say. More purchasing power, higher wages, better retirement plans and unemployment benefits? These all sound amazing, but technically speaking, how is the French government supposed to achieve that overnight?

Oh yeah, and less taxes. I guess you could further increase them on top earners, but Hollande's 75% tax experiment was a tragic failure, and France is the country that 'produces' the most exiled millionaires, which – however misguidedly – is the reality that Macron is trying to curb by reforming the ISF or wealth tax. I don't see an 'intra-national' or even a European solution here, unless one believes ideology trumps every other consideration.

I'm also systematically bemused by the belief that the State is some kind of demiurgic, omnipotent entity that can solve all of your problems if you make your request forceful enough.

In no small part because the countries that should actually be taking that approach (most English-speaking ones tbf) aren't. It feels like a comedy of errors sometimes.

what has Melenchon's position been relative to this movement? I haven't seen much mention of him/his party outside of those recent raids. (I've been paying v little attention to French politics of late.)

He wants the government to either give in to the gilets jaunes's demands (but which ones?) or leave. Both him and Le Pen call for early elections.

*Both he and Le Pen, rather…

Mélenchon and Le Pen are fools of a feather, who cares what they think.

The reason that the term of the French presidency was until not so long ago 7 years, was exactly to have a strong presidency that can do basically whatever it wants without electoral pressure. This one will be no exception. There's not a permanent electoral campaign here.

Haha à Elodie Renault, who wants the government to give her a pony, the most French attitude. I love it.

I get rioting when you voted for one thing and got another. I get vandalism when the powers-that-be are actively conspiring to destroy democracy. But when the government is consistently applying the program for which it got elected in the first place, I'm at a loss. I guess no one was paying attention and just voted based on impressions? Yeah, Macron is totally to blame for that.

As for the pony thing, I tend to think that too, Euler, but it's devolving into self-parody at this point. Self-sabotage, even.

Do we know that the rioters voted? It's not such a big group of people anyway. French people are complaining. There's a blocus at a lycée somewhere pretty much every day, people start early in this way of life. What's different is that rather than trashing the facs, they trashed a place of rich people. Don't get me wrong, I'm not "on their side": but this is continuous with how French people act all the time, even if an advancement. It portends no sea change, unless the Macron government wants that.

Oh, I'm well aware that it's cultural, I just have less patience for it than I used to. 'We want everything to change, yet nothing must change' gets tiresome after a while. And not voting is no excuse, as far as I'm concerned.

I do agree that trashing the 16ème is a massive step up from the arson of libraries en banlieue, for instance.

what % of the population actually voted for Macron

Mélenchon and Le Pen are fools of a feather

hmmm

I could be persuaded if Melenchon is a real dummy but "the far left and the far right are the same, actually" galaxy brain shit has a high burden of proof

If we go by the runoff, 20.7 million people, i.e. 43.6% of registered voters. That's about as much as Sarkozy in 2007 and Mitterrand in 1981; slightly more than Hollande in 2012 (39%). The only time a president got an absolute majority in terms of registered voters was in 2002, when Jacques Chirac beat Jean-Marie Le Pen. So there's nothing unusual about Macron's victory in this regard.

I get rioting when you voted for one thing and got another. I get vandalism when the powers-that-be are actively conspiring to destroy democracy. But when the government is consistently applying the program for which it got elected in the first place, I'm at a loss. I guess no one was paying attention and just voted based on impressions? Yeah, Macron is totally to blame for that.

We'd still be paying the poll tax in the UK with that attitude.

I could be persuaded if Melenchon is a real dummy but "the far left and the far right are the same, actually" galaxy brain shit has a high burden of proof

I can't speak for Euler, but I think Mélenchon is a dangerous demagogue (although not quite as much as Le Pen) who is greatly harming the French left at the moment. La France insoumise would be much better off without him. None of which implies that the far left and the far right are the same – not in my book, at least.

Is it fair to guess that many, if not most, Macron voters were primarily voting against Le Pen?

At any rate, physically mass-mobilizing is a fine method of influencing government, though I'd personally like to have seen a little more directed leadership to help curb the fashy elements. And of course any situation that ends with "socialism in one country" (if that is indeed where they wind up in a year or two) is doomed to failure. xxp

Macron's approval rating was fairly high last year (above 50%), so it's not as simple as that.

any situation that ends with "socialism in one country" (if that is indeed where they wind up in a year or two) is doomed to failure

This is sadly otm, though.

Yeah I don’t think that the far left and the far right are identical, but just that Mélenchon and Le Pen are similar in their conneries.

Is it fair to guess that many, if not most, Macron voters were primarily voting against Le Pen?

It's certainly what every French person I know did. First round votes are a different topic of course.

All of you OTM. Stunned by the level of general support to such a confused and often ugly movement. But I guess that's its strength, this viscosity where divergent and contradictory opinions will just coalesce behind a general "we're fed up with it" feeling.

Sigh.

Is it fair to guess that many, if not most, Macron voters were primarily voting against Le Pen?

Only 16% of the people who voted for him did so because of his ideas. 43% voted against Le Pen. Among major candidates he his the one with the lowest percentage of people who cast their vote because they agree with the candidate's program. First round was no different. Every media kept telling everyone he was the most likely to beat Le Pen. You even had politicians on the left publicly stating they would vote for Macron in the first round in order to avoid a Le Pen / Fillon duel.

I’m aware the north american twitter left and jacobin readers have a hard-on over Mélenchon because old grumpy socialists are very fashionable (collection hiver automne 2020) but Mélenchon is just a fucking idiot, like watching Brexit happening in real time and still thinking France should get out of the EU kind of fuckin idiot.

otm

Yep, completely.

it's sounding like Saturday is going to be nuts. things are building up: the Sorbonne is closed today because of attempt to block it, the building where I was supposed to teach last night was similarly closed yesterday, my kids' school was blocked today, tomorrow's a day of general mobilization which will mess up transport at the least, and then saturday already museums are announcing closures because of anticipated chaos.

basically activists are smelling blood & it's almost the end of the year so students want a break from courses

I’m aware the north american twitter left and jacobin readers have a hard-on over Mélenchon because old grumpy socialists are very fashionable (collection hiver automne 2020) but Mélenchon is just a fucking idiot, like watching Brexit happening in real time and still thinking France should get out of the EU kind of fuckin idiot.

FWIW I'm literally just looking for more information/context! Going by mainstream American media, the guy might as well not exist.

looks like an absolute shitshow over there

It’s always interesting how different protests get treated differently. Like the way ‘fuel tax protests’ in the UK a while back - the media is immediately behind such actions, whereas the default stance to left wing protests is opposition.

I saw my first gilet jaune a little bit ago. Near the Jardin de Luxembourg

All Parisian lycées are closed tomorrow so my kids are happy, won’t have to navigate the civil war. The city feels very tense today. Cops are gonna be reluctant to intervene tomorrow so it’ll be up to the army. We’ll not be leaving the house.

just checked into our hotel in saint germain des pres. not planning on crossing the river tomorrow but don’t really want to be hotel-bound. do you think it’s likely violence will spread far beyond the 8th?

I’m aware the north american twitter left and jacobin readers have a hard-on over Mélenchon because old grumpy socialists are very fashionable (collection hiver automne 2020) but Mélenchon is just a fucking idiot, like watching Brexit happening in real time and still thinking France should get out of the EU kind of fuckin idiot.

― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 6 December 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm

― L'assie (Euler), Thursday, 6 December 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yep, completely.

― pomenitul, Thursday, 6 December 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Take out Nothern Ireland and there wouldn't be as much of a problem. The deal would probably have gone through, even with tight numbers in parliament.

The EU are facing serious problems integrating the Euro - and having to impose austerity in Southern Europe. It needs serious reform and thought. Saying Melenchon is part of a 'fashion' is laughable and you are all fooling yourselves.

It’s not clear where the violence will be tomorrow. Something may go down at Denfert-Rochereau, which isn’t that far from Saint-Germain-des-Près. My daughter’s lycée is in SGDP, I’m glad she won’t be there tomorrow. Up here in L@ Ch@p3ll3 I expect things will be like Ghostbusters after the EPA lets all the ghosts out : while the cops are with the rich scum tomorrow the gangsters up here will have their way.

delightful. thx for the intel.

So a noted yellow vest who also happens to be a holocaust denier 'accidentally' ended up on the cover of Paris Match:

https://www.lesinrocks.com/2018/12/06/actualite/un-militant-dextreme-droite-se-retrouve-en-une-de-paris-match-pour-illustrer-les-gilets-jaunes-111149819/

The EU are facing serious problems integrating the Euro - and having to impose austerity in Southern Europe. It needs serious reform and thought. Saying Melenchon is part of a 'fashion' is laughable and you are all fooling yourselves.

I fail to see how this precludes a critique of Mélenchon himself. Like I said, La France insoumise has much to gain by getting rid of his top-down leadership style.