Is the West Experiencing a Right-Wing Drift?

The Faro stuff is interesting, because as far as I can tell tell its the district with the most pronounced population increase, and the only district outside of Lisbon and a couple of surrounding districts to be increasing at all, with population decline elsewhere (may be looking at outdated figures)

although to Boring's point above an increase in the population doesnt necessarily mean an increase in population eligible to vote

Also was listening to this on my run this morning, which is more broadly about the decline of the center-left across Europe post 2004, creating the space for populist parties to move into. Touches briefly on Portugal and Spain. Probably familiar material to many but was useful for me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39V5_ui0XAA

thought this article on Melenchon and the other French lefty parties was interesting:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/magazine/french-left-politics-melenchon.html

hope they can somehow beat Le Pen

One thing I think I might mention is Portugal is on the whole a rather homogenous country with not that much variation in demographics, no real separatist groups, centuries old coherence in language, religion, culture - I'm from the Azores which are probably the most distant within that context and it's still nowhere near comparable to the differences I've seen within the UK, Germany, US. So granular district by district analysis might yield limited results in a forest for the trees sense.

thought this article on Melenchon and the other French lefty parties was interesting:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/magazine/french-left-politics-melenchon.html
hope they can somehow beat Le Pen

― symsymsym, Wednesday, March 13, 2024 6:58 AM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Le Pen is far ahead in polls, the left coalition is a disaster and full of dissensions, France needs a figure to preserve Macron's legacy (Attal ?) but the French hate themselves too much to know what's good for them. Mélenchon will do a good score again, but under Le Pen. Yet I think the far right will be pushed back yet again, unless Marine gives Jordan Bardella his chance, which I don't think she will.

Yes def need to preserve the glorious legacy of Macron

Has there been a significant increase in 'the same damn candidates for the third election in a row' situations worldwide or does it just seem like it?

Yes def need to preserve the glorious legacy of Macron
― Daniel_Rf, Wednesday, March 13, 2024 11:47 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Maybe I'm jaded, but I don't really expect more from politicians, and certainly nothing glorious. I see him as a center-right blueprint, and the alternatives as worse. I'm not French nor a close follower though.

He's been steadily dogwhistling to racists, trying to stop the rise of the FN by co-optinh its rhetoric into a more socially palpable framing. He's also presided over increasingly scarier initiatives to clamp down on the right to protest and give the cops more and more leeway for using violence. Even my wife's dad, who is centre left and hates Melenchon, is disgusted with him.

Less important but the fact that there's no obvious good replacement in line for Macron is, for the man himself, a feature not a bug - he hollowed out the PS to benefit a political movement based entirely around his own cult of personality.

I certainly dislike his minister of interior (Darmamin) and surely there are things to criticize, but I still think he's the most competent and likable of the French presidents I've known (counting from Chirac). The immigration bill appeared tactical and potentially a good electoral move: giving an image of toughness, letting the far-right introduce amendments, most of which will be eviscerated by the constitutional court. Anyway, I don't believe Macron is going on a right-wing drift, he's always balanced (maybe more clumsily than adroitly) between the two sides. The cult of personality thing is also a feature arguably.

centrists never gonna stop believing that reactionary immigration policy is 12D chess instead of what their guys actually believe in

what they actually believe in - nice liberals can't be racist so their support for racist policy always has to be framed as some kind of tactical move - it helps them to have a further-right villain to use as a threat against those who take issue with this bullshit

finding macron likeable is only slightly more fathomable to me than finding trump likeable and that's just on an aesthetic level

Security and foreign policy have always been the go-to for easy gains in electoral points, you won't convince me it's ideological.

But what's unfathomable to me is not seeing a difference between Trump and Macron

I guess Macron’s likeable if you don’t care about Muslims or black people or the poor.

You won't convince me that pandering to racists and the far right really is a positive electorally.

It was fun how he tried to move the press room at the Elysee so journalists couldn’t see who came and went, surely not something that would ever backfire with fascists in power

But what's unfathomable to me is not seeing a difference between Trump and Macron

That's not what was said though.

I'm not French nor a close follower though.

The recently released video clips from 2022 of Macron talking to both Zelenskyy and Putin on the phone have such a weird uncanny valley feeling about them (Putins 'sorry bro I'm at the gym about to play hockey' line?). I feel like I'm being duped by a skit

You won't convince me that pandering to racists and the far right really is a positive electorally.

― man in suit and red tie raising his fist (Tom D.), Thursday, March 14, 2024 10:12 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Not "pandering", but hard disagree. If there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 years, it's that you cannot let them occupy the security and immigration terrain alone, because that's exactly where you can (and need) to contain their growth. We can discuss how to best manage it and nobody is saying the French immigration bill was the only option.

If there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 years

If there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 years

If there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 years

If there is one thing that European far-right nationalism has taught us in the last 20 years

Here’s an idea: all the fascists’ ideas are bad, and you do not, in fact, need to hand it to them.

The far right have nothing to say on the subject of security that isn’t “persecute Muslims” and “restrict civil liberties”. Most of them take Russian money and hang out with people who are huge security risks.

The thing about is it strategic vs is it ideological is that it doesn't matter - playing with anti immigration sentiment still moves the overton window and the idea that you could then somehow keep things to acceptable levels (whatever those would be) is delusional.

The only acceptable level to the fascists is none and repatriation of people who’ve been there generations. Let’s just be honest about that.

Yes. Also pandering, and that is exactly the right word, hasn't worked and will never work.

hey if there's one thing the history of fascists in power has taught us it's that they definitely moderate their demands if you accommodate them a little

With the proviso of course that if you actually believe in these policies, it isn't pandering.

the "Is" in this thread title needs moving two places to the right, funnily enough

that's not very funny

Security and foreign policy have always been the go-to for easy gains in electoral points

Citation needed, this strategy appears to be a failure when it's tried. Even the glorious centrist revolutions in the west of the past decades (Blair, Clinton, 2017 Macron) were riding on an economic message first and foremost.

If you're a reactionary/racist voter and have the choice of a gleefully reactionary/racist candidate and a candidate that's open to a little bit of reaction/racism for a treat - what, exactly, is supposed to be the draw of the latter?

you won't convince me it's ideological.

Being open to a little strategic racism is itself ideological.

otm

I don’t think Nah, bozo will be responding, somehow.

Seriously doesn’t matter whether those enacting racist policy do so out of conviction or cynicism, but also the whole “I know they don’t believe it in their secret heart of hearts” bit is — at best — naive credulity masquerading as realpolitik. At worst, well.

Reading this thread with Gustavo Petro's quote from last year on the back of my mind: "Many in Europe have already welcomed Hitler into their homes", something like that

The West has been experiencing a right wing drift since about 1979.