I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

http://image.prntscr.com/image/0445ca7564954a33a8628816e156ae41.png

Perfect name.

Alternately, I guess:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrrEo3hZABU

(Weird, listening to that I'm in ninth grade all over again)

It actually comes from a Clinton quote at the end of July, but NIN is also a fair association...

http://www.reuters.com/video/2016/07/31/clinton-on-trump-i-dont-know-where-the-b?videoId=369440017&videoChannel=1003

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpOnftAWIAAYAN0.jpg:large

Wtf is going on there. Is he making shadow puppets on her back?

Looking for those darn WMDs iirc

he doesn't know where the bottom is

ironically, Walsh Jennings and her new partner lost today. To the Swiss*.

*the fucking Swiss

Titties like Detroit, though

I'm sick of the swiss

Robby Mook is the bottom

Trump just called obama "the founder of ISIS"

at this pt he's gotta keep swinging for the fences.

he whiffs about as much as Rob Deer tho

Stress Over Family Finances Propelled Hillary Clinton Into Corporate World

this is like if they got one of the "What You Get For $2 million" authors to write a piece about Hillary Clinton's terrible struggles

Even some of Mrs. Clinton’s allies privately say they are mystified by her choice to make the Wall Street speeches, given the likelihood that they would become an issue in a presidential campaign. And to some of them, her financial moves clash with the selfless Methodist credo to do good for others that she so often says guided her toward a life of public service.

But her longtime friends say the contradiction is rooted in Mrs. Clinton’s practicality and the boom-and-bust cycles that have characterized her life with Bill Clinton.

At no time did those stresses fall more squarely on Mrs. Clinton’s shoulders than in the difficult two-year period in Arkansas when she and her husband found themselves cast out of office, financially strained and deeply uncertain about the future. And the memory of that time shaped her desire to be free from financial burden.

“Hillary had a couple years of the taste of what it means to be a working mother, without any help, to have to take care of a small baby and care for your job,” said James B. Blair, a close Clinton friend and lawyer who offered Mrs. Clinton investment advice in the 1970s.

http://i.imgur.com/wNcH3L7.jpg

It was one of the smallest houses on the block in Little Rock’s Hillcrest section, and Mrs. Clinton largely bought it with her own money, the month after that devastating 1980 election loss.

omg, poor hillary. what a DUMP

The Clintons had stretched their finances to afford the $112,000 home, which was down the hill from the city’s old-money mansions. The sprawling estate of Winthrop Rockefeller, the celebrated former governor, was so close that it practically cast a shadow on the Clintons’ grassy backyard.

aww man they had to live next to a mansion? it must have been so embarrassing to live next to an estate of a former governor, how did they do it?!

Mr. Clinton had turned down out-of-state job offers in academia and Democratic politics, and instead took the only offer he had in Arkansas, to serve “of counsel” for $55,000 a year at the Wright, Lindsey & Jennings law firm, where Mr. Clinton’s longtime adviser Bruce R. Lindsey was a partner.

But he spent most of his time on the road, often accompanied by Mr. Lindsey, trying to win back the hearts of voters.

i don't know how he did it. 55K a year in 1980, and all you do all day is travel around talking to people? fuck and gameboy wasn't even around, wtf, i take back everything i ever said about the clintons

Mrs. Clinton had become a partner at the Rose Law Firm in 1979, and during these lean years

i'll never forget my own lean years when i was having all of those tedious discussions about where my last name would be placed in my law firm's name. i mean i understand the argument for seniority but i was bringing in so many clients, i really should have been listed 2nd if not first. at any rate i sympathize with hillary here

“I’m not sure she ever planned to be a corporate lawyer,” said Lissa Muscatine, a friend and former chief speechwriter to Mrs. Clinton. But she did the work because “she had the earning capacity that he didn’t have as governor.”

i know the purple heart isn't traditionally given to civilians who were not wounded in combat, but can we make an exception here and give it to hillary clinton because i cannot believe these sacrifices

Two years later, the state increased the governor’s term to four years, and the Clintons’ finances appeared more stable. Mrs. Clinton went on to join the board of Walmart, and she continued to work at the Rose Law Firm. By the time Mr. Clinton was running for president, they reported $297,177 in total income on their 1992 tax returns, a sum that would put most Americans in the upper income tier but seemed meager compared with the wealth of his opponents, George Bush and Ross Perot.

(Adagio for Strings plays in the background)

On that GOP outreach of Clinton's:

Clinton’s post-convention polling surge may have reduced the leverage of progressive voters. According to the Washington Post-ABC News poll released Sunday, Clinton is winning 11 percent of Republican registered voters, similar to 13 percent for Barack Obama in August 2008. Just 14 percent of Democratic-leaning voters who wanted Sanders to win the primary do not support Clinton in a two-way race, compared with 30 percent of Clinton supporters who did not support Obama in August 2008.

Much of that, progressives say, is because of the real threat of a Trump presidency. Since conceding the primary, Sanders has relentlessly warned his supporters not to oppose Clinton’s campaign. (He declined through a spokesman to comment for this article.) Noam Chomsky, a left-wing intellectual who has criticized Kissinger’s foreign policy interventions for decades, said that it still makes sense for voters to unite against Trump.

“I don’t like it, but it cannot give me pause, since the alternative is vastly worse, even on endorsements,” Chomsky said. “I don’t see the significance of neocons endorsing Clinton, probably not because they particularly like her but because they are concerned, sometimes terrified, about Trump.”

The conservatives abandoning the GOP over Trump have the same concerns. “I’m speaking up so that when my grandchildren come home from college and ask me what I was doing in this election, I can tell them,” said Eliot Cohen, a co-founder of the Project for a New American Century who signed the “letter of 50” and planned to write in the name of Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) for president. “What I’d say to Sanders voters is: Can’t you accept the possibility that there are people you disagree with, but who are on your side this time?”

xp I couldn't even read that article....

Came out of the White House with little to no money, has since made $200+ million. Like to know when she possibly has time to spend it.

a sum that would put most Americans in the upper income tier

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wLHAkMhwyM

this shit makes my blood boil

(Adagio for Strings plays in the background)

yeah, the thing about that article is that it wants to make you sympathetic to clinton but it really boils down to "she's a bit greedy"

x-post

it's obvious he just says whatever will get a crowd response. if they like something enough, he ups the ante right away, or next time. if they cheered when he started talking about how he's going to rid gardens of snails, that would become a part of his stump speech.

i don't know. these statements seem somewhat calculated -- he always phrases things in a vague enough way to have plausible deniability, but his supporters steal hear the intended message loud and clear. "i was just saying ISIS honors obama because his strategy in iraq enabled their rise. how dare you try to claim i was implying anything to the contrary!"

then he gets to blame the "crooked media" for "twisting his words" and they respond by debating what he really meant and voila, trump dominates the news cycle. if he does so by sinking further in the mud, he also creates the illusion that the media and his opponent are down there with him too. he does this same thing like every single day

http://www.youtube.com/v/7wLHAkMhwyM&fs=1&hl=en

I read the transcript of this and could not believe it was real and not one of those Owen Ellickson tweets

what does it say that this doesn't shock me at all?

I think I'm well past the point of having an emotional response to these statements anymore, and just react to them tactically/strategically. And they're utterly baffling. (Because we're well past the Republican primaries when such statements clearly worked, even if it took everyone, me included, a long time for that to click in.)

It does, probably, push the second-amendment stuff to the side. To what purpose, I'm not sure. It's neither "better" nor "worse"; all it does is guarantee another day or two of Trump's surrogates trying to explain what he really meant. There are three months until the election. Two days don't matter, unless you start adding up two plus two again and again.

Seems about right:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-in-fourth-place-among-black-voters/

I can't wait for the moment in the debate when Trump blames Hillary for ISIS and Hillary responds, "they literally use your face and your words in their recruitment videos"

God I hope she does. I hope she tells him to shut the fuck up. It would help

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/10/people-love-it-when-donald-trump-makes-fun-of-journalists-except-one-in-particular/

Xxxxxxxxxposts Karl Malone u r funny!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/22/actor-michael-caine-says-he-changed-his-name-to-michael-caine-because-of-isis/?tid=hybrid_experimentrandomuk_1_na

Do we know how many other people are crossing our borders with assumed names?! How many liars and cheaters are roaming free on our streets, with no accountability? Bring this Michael Caine in for further questioning, find out who funds him, and then bomb them!

"Michael Caine bomb" About 465,000 results (0.41 seconds)

In an appearance on CNBC, Donald Trump reiterated his claim at a campaign rally in Florida on Wednesday that Barack Obama is the “founder of ISIS,” as was Hillary Clinton. “What,” Trump asked on Thursday morning, “are people complaining that I said he was the founder of ISIS?”

“In sports they have awards—he gets the Most Valuable Player award,” Trump said. “Him and Hillary. She gets it too.”

how quickly we forget jihadi john :(

I know this was mentioned in the other thread before it was locked, but worth memorializing:

Mr. Trump also found himself in an awkward camera framing immediately after criticizing the Clinton campaign for the appearance of Seddique Mir Mateen, the father of the Pulse gunman, at Mrs. Clinton’s campaign event this week. “Wasn’t it terrible when the father of the animal that killed these wonderful people in Orlando was sitting with a big smile on his face right behind Hillary Clinton?” Mr. Trump said.

Yet sitting behind Mr. Trump was Mark Foley, a former Republican congressman who resigned after being confronted with sexually explicit messages he had sent to underage congressional pages. Mr. Trump seemed not to be aware of the disgraced former congressman’s presence as he tried to cast doubt on the Clinton campaign’s account that it had not known who Mr. Mateen was. “When you get those seats, you sort of know the campaign,” Mr. Trump said.

"I'm a truth teller. All I do is tell the truth. And if at the end of 90 days, I've fallen short because I'm somewhat politically correct even though I'm supposed to be the smart one and even though I'm supposed to have a lot of good ideas, it's OK. I go back to a very good way of life."

^^ I actually thought that was a fake quote until I came across the CNBC interview this morning. We should come up with a special Real-Donald-Trump font from here on in.

http://digitaldeconstruction.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Paint-With-Donald-Trump.png

He's like a malfunctioning bot at this point, spewing magnetic poetry pieces intermixed with the occasional fringe-y retweet to keep people's interest.

I bet a simple neural network could emulate Trump-speak pretty quickly, given it doesn't ever have actually make sense or follow any sort of sentence structure.

It's true. Sad!

xp https://twitter.com/deepdrumpf

http://time.com/4447985/inside-donald-trump-meltdown/

This "eh, either I win or I get to do some mad chillaxing" trip he's on is the tack of of a presidential candidate who a) is preparing to lose and b) isn't that concerned about losing.

He was also preparing to lose when he was prematurely speculating about the election being rigged.

he cares. it sounds like "i'm not even mad"

"it doesn't ever have actually make sense"

That's partly why OL's quote confused me--Trump thinks he's going to lose because he's "somewhat politically correct"?! What does that mean? That he has even harder truths that he has been thoughtfully shielding us from?

The self-styled law-and-order candidate attacked fire marshals for turning away supporters when his venues hit capacity

Hah, I forgot about this

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cplb_HwXYAQZVk_.jpg:small

poor hugh hewitt

can't believe he's giving the MVP to two people -- what is this, a trophy for participating?

Of all his delusions, the biggest may be this idea that after November, he can just go back to being Donald Trump, Awesome Billionaire. His business interests have been irreparably damaged by this whole thing. There's only one bank in the world that'll loan him money, and by the end they're probably gonna cut him loose, too.

The thread title reminds me of "Helter Skelter":

When I get to the bottom I go back to the top of the slide
Where I stop and I turn and I go for a ride
Till I get to the bottom and I see you again

And "helter skelter" is as good a description as any of Trump the strategist.

Looking forward now to Hugh Hewitt's next CNN appearance. ("I tried, I tried... god knows I've tried.")

xpost Yeah, Deutsche Bank is trying to improve their image, and refusing to do any more business with Trump would be a great start.

I'm almost completely certain that Trump read some reactionary tweet saying that Obama founded ISIS and now he's just parroting that. Dumb as a post, this guy.

That Time article is great. Love this quote in particular:

At Clinton headquarters in Brooklyn, aides still nursing scars from skirmishes with Bernie Sanders marveled at their good fortune. As in all campaigns, researchers watch every public event, read every interview, archive every tweet. “On other campaigns, we would have to scrounge for crumbs,” says a senior Clinton adviser. “Here, it’s a fire hose. He can set himself on fire at breakfast, kill a nun at lunch and waterboard a puppy in the afternoon. And that doesn’t even get us to prime time.”

Speaking of neural networks, I wonder if someone can get him to retweet a clickotron.com headline. And then cite it as a source for some obliquely related statement later.

“What Trump campaign?” one swing-state Senate campaign manager snapped at a volunteer recently. “We have more offices than they do.”

https://twitter.com/colvinj/status/763730093961347072

when trump thinks something is going to cost less than everyone else, that's when people go bankrupt, including him and the people he works for.

^^ me writing good adverts hire me.

lol

https://twitter.com/JaxAlemany/status/763704123221012480
https://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/763712162498043904

Has he ever been confronted with the actual costs and logistics of building the wall in reality? Just curious.

I don't know when/if 'journalists' are ever going to stop treating Trump like some inscrutable sphinx whose words have actual intention behind them.

INTERVIEWER: When you say "I'm a pony", I understand that you mean that you'll be a workhorse for the American people and carry the load as president of the country.

TRUMP: No, I mean I'm a pony. I'm a horse. I sleep in a barn, I wear a saddle, I have a mane. I'm a pony. And Hillary is responsible for every presidential assassination in history.

INTERVIEWER: Okay, so...you mean that her policies somehow honor those who've assassinated presidents in the past?

TRUMP: I mean that she can travel through time and that she's killed lots of presidents. Lots of people are talking about it. Sad!

ha, that happened this morning https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/763742757143863297

Trump's speech is a dialectic between the figurative and the literal.

(xxpost) Brilliant!

For party officials, the Trump campaign has become like the sign inside factories: X days without an accident, with the tally regularly resetting to zero. “I think what he wants to do and what he does do are two different things,” says another senior GOP official.

Yes. He wants to be a winner but all he does is lose. The most beautiful part of all of this is that he actually, scarily had a chance, and the erosion of the chance he had is entirely his doing.

@ppppolls
Donald Trump leads by only 2 in South Carolina, with 41% to 39% for Hillary Clinton, 5% Gary Johnson, 2% Jill Stein: publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_R…

“I think what he wants to do and what he does do are two different things,” says another senior GOP official."

Do they really think this? Seems like they're one and the same. Unless they're talking about outcome rather than intent

I think so. It's more "what he wants to do and what he's capable of doing are two different things".

I hate how I can't read any Trump quote, or made up Trump quote, without hearing that stupid cadence of his in my head.

I'm a horse. A horse, okay? It's true, folks. I'm a horse, and by the way, Croooooooooked Hillary (waits for applause) is a dog. She's a dog. I heard she's a dog, I dunno...

Yes. He wants to be a winner but all he does is lose. The most beautiful part of all of this is that he actually, scarily had a chance, and the erosion of the chance he had is entirely his doing.

Exactly. This election was definitely winnable for Trump and he's completely blown it in the dumbest possible way. Like border walls and Muslim bans are one thing but lately it's just been one high-risk no-reward statement after another

Even still I hope we don't eat these words after some inconceivable turn of events.

here's another fun find for those trying to figure out exactly what drugs he may be on:

https://imgur.com/gallery/PqvRV

Here's the cover that goes along with the Time piece:

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cpkv7R1XEAAuolB.jpg

xxpost Another beautiful thing is that, as Trump goes in hard on saying insane fringe stuff like Obama and Clinton being the co-founders of ISIS, his appeal increases with the fringe and decreases with everyone else and it becomes harder to discern signal from noise. Any legit grievances with Clinton are going to get lost in the shuffling madness.

I bet a simple neural network could emulate Trump-speak pretty quickly, given it doesn't ever have actually make sense or follow any sort of sentence structure.

i think you're giving him too much credit - at this point he's basically a burnt sienna fridge poetry set, stringing the same words and phrases together over and over again in minute variations

If he had just disappeared to the Hamptons or Florida for part of August, let people get bored with Hillary, and then come back zings blazing after Labor Day...

another fun fact - he buys a lot of Twitter followers:

http://i.imgur.com/oxm7U24.png

Any legit grievances with Clinton are going to get lost in the shuffling madness.

it's almost as if this candidate has locomotive breath

That really should've been his campaign song. A startlingly-prophetic parallel of how things are going for him.

Meanwhile
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/us/politics/mike-pence-muslim-ban.html

INDIANAPOLIS — Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana suggested in a radio interview on Monday that Donald J. Trump’s proposed ban on Muslims from entering the country could be broadened to include other religions, not just Muslims.

In an interview with Charlie Sykes, a Wisconsin talk radio host, Mr. Sykes specifically pressed Mr. Pence on his running mate’s Muslim ban, asking: “So there’s no longer a proposed temporary ban on Muslims? It would be anyone from those countries, including Christians? Jews?”

Mr. Pence, seeming to go beyond even the policy proposed by Mr. Trump, did not rule out barring immigrants from other religions, if they were coming from nations or territories that support terrorism.

What about skin color? Or weird names?

Meanwhile, this...is telling:

https://twitter.com/jasonnobleDMR/status/763763968246550528

@SteveKingIA just said @HillaryClinton "outside of the press, outside of the public eye is someone I can work with."

i was thinking how if she is able to get things passed w/ bipartisan support the left is really really going to hate her. it won't matter what she gets the republicans to give up - any concession or negotiation will be seen as a betrayal.

http://www.wbtv.com/story/32736823/lawsuit-trump-campaign-failed-to-act-after-staffer-pulled-gun

CHARLOTTE, NC (WBTV) - A lawsuit filed by a former staffer on Donald J. Trump’s campaign for president claims the campaign’s then-North Carolina State Director pulled a gun on him and senior campaign officials refused to do anything about it.

If HRC becomes the new center of gravity for the Republican Party I'd consider that a good development. xp

i was thinking how if she is able to get things passed w/ bipartisan support the left is really really going to hate her. it won't matter what she gets the republicans to give up - any concession or negotiation will be seen as a betrayal.

― Mordy, Thursday, August 11, 2016 11:07 AM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Easy now, let's see what she actually does first.

the spectacle of company man hugh hewitt throwing a life preserver to trump over and over again the interview and trump batting it away is really something

it won't matter what she gets the republicans to give up - any concession or negotiation will be seen as a betrayal.

well duh

Meghan McCain is annoyed.

https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/763768753419063296

lol michael ian black first response hall of fame

minor political disappointment of the day:

Lady Miss Kier is a jill stein anti-hillary type (ok ok) retweeting prisonplanet and breitbart goons

https://twitter.com/ladykier

say it ain't so!

another fun fact - he buys a lot of Twitter followers:

http://i.imgur.com/oxm7U24.png

― frogbs, Thursday, August 11, 2016 11:50 AM (36 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

that's a fairly typical fraction of bot followers for a celebrity account. maybe a bit on the high side, but no evidence that he's buying them.

uh also (need to figure this out) the green party running mate has some kind of connection to holocaust denial?

https://twitter.com/ajamubaraka

idk sounds tenuous at first glance

ok he contributed a piece to a book about how the charlie hedbo attack was a false flag

https://twitter.com/johnpaulpagano/status/763363044391002112

edited by a holocaust denier. cover by david dees!

Ajamu Baraka ‏@ajamubaraka 1h1 hour ago
Our presidential options at the top level of government are bleak. That's why we need to build from the bottom up. pointlessly run moron candidates for president every four years.

boy i thought flirting with naturalnews body paranoia was bad...

https://twitter.com/deepdrumpf

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, August 11, 2016 10:23 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

so amazing

lol michael ian black first response hall of fame

amen!

if she is able to get things passed w/ bipartisan support the left is really really going to hate her

record-setting billions for Bibi; count on it.

lol michael ian black first response hall of fame

Throwing Sarah Palin back at her obliterates anything she might have to say.

MI Black and McCain wrote a book together

pretty sure obama is going to sign that new aid package before he leaves office. nb i was pleasantly surprised to find that daniel pipes most recent column called for the military aid to end: http://www.danielpipes.org/16850/end-us-aid-to-israel

but what does record-setting billions for bibi have to do w/ negotiating with republicans? both hillary and the republicans want it. i'm talking about things hillary doesn't necessarily want, or things she has actually campaigned against, that she might give into to make a "grand compromise."

they're not gonna compromise at all - tea party caucus in the House will be even more powerful after the election, Ryan will be hamstrung.

yeah it's like they'll have distilled much of the sanity out of the GOP and what is left will be even crazier and less prone to compromise

in re. baraka -- you can't make up this stuff:

In January 2015, Baraka described the vigil for the victims of the Charlie Hebdo shooting as a "white power march" and Je suis Charlie as an "arrogant rallying cry for white supremacy" because of France's colonial history, the caricature at issue, French support for American policy in Syria and Libya, and the disproportionate interest in this particular act of war.[19] Later he would write an article titled "No 'Je Suis Charleston'?".

caroline du sud n'est pas francophone, non?

when has the GOP ever been sane

Not in the last forty or fifty years.

it's all relative i guess

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpmAplYUsAA7dkA.jpg

So did we talk about how Trump is now two points ahead of HRC in...South Carolina?

(He's not)

I'm wondering why we haven't seen a poll of Texas voters in a while, tbh.

those parentheticals in the CNN chyron have been just

sublime

Apropos of nothing, a friend of mine (not the person I'm linking to) just shared this video on FB, of some psychotic aggro asshole threatening a cyclist. Among his many threats: "If there weren't any witnesses, I'd pull a Trump on you."

https://www.facebook.com/mark.friis1/videos/vb.1201104417/10207942299974298/?type=2&theater

South Carolina was only a ten point differential in 2012. Compare with Missouri (nine point differential) and Georgia (eight point differential).

Lieberman goes for HRC:
http://jewishva.org/node/129998

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/republicans-urge-rnc-cut-funds-trump-226918

that's a fairly typical fraction of bot followers for a celebrity account. maybe a bit on the high side, but no evidence that he's buying them.

I think he recently seemed to add 1.5m of them.

re: chinavision's link: it's been said before, but I love how now that he's really cratering in the polls, all these 'reasonable' folks have, just this minute, noticed shit he's been doing since the start of the campaign:

Those recent outrages have built on his campaign of anger and exclusion, during which he has mocked and offended millions of voters, including the disabled, women, Muslims, immigrants, and minorities,” the letter states. “He also has shown dangerous authoritarian tendencies, including threats to ban an entire religion from entering the country, order the military to break the law by torturing prisoners, kill the families of suspected terrorists, track law-abiding Muslim citizens in databases, and use executive orders to implement other illegal and unconstitutional measures.

oh, so now those things are deal-breakers. good to know.

uh most of that stuff is being done now

or has been recently

if they were really brave they'd endorse the only other candidate who has a chance of winning

pretty sure him mocking and offending the disabled, women, Muslims, immigrants and minorities was.... the entire basis of his campaign? the Muslim ban, the torture and kill stuff, all that was ages and ages ago.

I think he recently seemed to add 1.5m of them.

― frogbs, Thursday, August 11, 2016 2:15 PM (11 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the jump is weird, but more likely attributable to someone who has a team of people who understand computes/the internet, than it is to donald trump's campaign. remember this guy was in charge of his data team http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-campaign-memo-unlikely-voters/.

obv posturing/positioning for the historical record once the odds have gotten long enough to cross the denouncement threshold. none of these fucks would be saying these things if trump was winning this race

xps

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everyone-has-fake-twitter-followers-but-trump-has-the-most-sad/ ?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/11/politics/reagan-daughter-blasts-trump/index.html

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpmWFfcXEAAGb2w.jpg

~dangerous~

reagan-daughter-finger-blasts-trump

I am the daughter of a man who was shot by someone who got his inspiration from a movie

tbf there was a lot of that going around

remember when iirc pareene was saying that "dangerous" donald was playing into his hands?

When will someone put a stop to this dangerous woman? I have it on good authority that she goes to events, and then goes home and goes to sleep. This, in the United States of America!

I assume he was trying to stoke the "Hillary is too sick to be President" rumors?

oh man if that's what he was going for, boy did he ever fail to connect the dots

I am the daughter of a man who was shot by someone who got his inspiration from a movie

Her dad's flair for language

how dare she sleep. trump takes loads of pills, loads! trump never sleeps!

everybody knows sleep causes cancer

(never get tired of my favorite Young Ones joke)

Apropos of nothing, a friend of mine (not the person I'm linking to) just shared this video on FB, of some psychotic aggro asshole threatening a cyclist. Among his many threats: "If there weren't any witnesses, I'd pull a Trump on you."

https://www.facebook.com/mark.friis1/videos/vb.1201104417/10207942299974298/?type=2&theater

― a 47-year-old chainsaw artist from South Carolina (Phil D.), Thursday, August 11, 2016 12:21 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i ususally don't watch this kind of thing, can't say i'm glad i did but jesus, what is up with people. seething anger over nothing. kudos to the cyclist for staying calm, i don't think i would

Again, I honestly can't tell whether that interview snippet is a real Trump quote or not. I've known people with full-blown dementia who could formulate clearer thoughts and sentences than Trump.

the "hillary is too old, sick, and fragile" thing is fuckin hilarious and so desperate

xxpost my favorite line is "you don't want to fuck with a guy like me-- a surfer"

this fucken guy actually says "I'm your huckleberry"

that kind of stuff makes me so unbelievably angry

xp goole

"If there weren't any witnesses, I'd pull a Trump on you."

doubt i'd have the wherewithal to say this in the moment but, "you're gonna lose an election?"

Huckabee next-levels

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/763807032159985664

"I'm your fuckle huckleberry" was another highlight

surfer guy is gonna be on the news apparently- journalist posted about it in the comments :)

that video gave me a serious anxiety rush. been in so many situations that could have gone that way, but that guy is next-level scary and in-your-face. i mean he's ridiculous from the distance of a video where we can play and reply "i'm your fuckle huckleberry" (which i agree was, just, oh man, wow) but if i put myself in that cyclist's body where you don't know if the dude is actually going to start shoving or throwing punches or something, it's terrifying. i can imagine an assault victim being triggered by that. none of this has much directly to do with trump but jesus fuck what is wrong with people.

sometimes, given my job, i find myself facing screaming and crazy and angry people where the situation might well get violent
it's consistently terrifying and horrible, yes.
what's wrong with people in NYC is that we're all jammed into a small space and dignity is hard to come by and most of us don't have enough money to live so everyone is in full on high alert and constantly feeling disrespected so we're quick to anger
i imagine that's probably applicable in most of the us?

good song imo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKFvG5mtTHI

dude is definitely a couple clicks shy of kilmer-as-holliday in the badass-mofo rankings

Cycling video guy legit terrifying.

none of this has much directly to do with trump

as a time capsule of the moment it's really something; rick pearlstein would love to have stuff like this for previous decades

https://twitter.com/nataliewsj/status/763817176637714432

Donald Trump asks for help with Utah in a room of evangelicals. Doesn't even get why that's a problem.

https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/763816038890962945

"I have a tremendous problem in Utah... <pause> ... Is anybody here from Utah?" Trump to evangelicals. (Nobody says yes.)

tough crowd, no respect

i imagine that's probably applicable in most of the us?

― thrusted pelvis-first back (ulysses), Thursday, August 11, 2016 2:19 PM (12 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Slightly different, inasmuch as most of the US feels aggrieved without really being able to explain why.

i gotta get me some of that sweet mystery of life action

‘Scumbag Steve’ is taking on Donald Trump. Here’s why.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/08/11/scumbag-steve-taking-donald-trump-here-why/qOpK3JjkFNTQ5ydJ0ZJakO/story.html

don't feel like you have to click that.

Cycling video guy legit terrifying.

That cyclist won't be getting his windows cleaned by Jack Dunn any time soon - and that's not a euphemism... or is it?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-behind-a-mysterious-website-saying-polls-are-skewed-against-trump/

538 challenges methodology used in an "unskewed" polling website. if you listen to their election podcast, you heard a mini-rant about their procedures this week.

loved this gem,

The site’s methodology page assures readers that “it is a mathematical certainty, that as the election approaches, all of the polls will begin to match the polls here on LongRoom.”

^^^ this will surprise many

holy shit that cycling video

i daresay that awful man has a terrible relationship with his children, and also his dentist

as the election approaches, all of the polls will begin to match the polls here on LongRoom

To me, this suggests that LongRoom has a very simple game plan in which it gradually reduces its unskewing efforts, so that on the day before the election it exactly coincides with the RCP and 538 aggregates. Surprise, surprise! They were right all along, retroactively justifying their methodology.

It's like drawing the bullseyes after you've shot your arrow. Lookit that! Another perfect shot!

increased traffic seems to have taken their site down. oops

http://i64.tinypic.com/2vk18oo.jpg

just two old guys discussin things

I was looking at the predicted presidential election outcomes and wondered to myself why nebraska's third congressional district was listed separately
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska's_3rd_congressional_district

now I am fucking dying laughing

All those Trump/Hewitt exchanges remind me of a scene I witnessed leaving a Neil Young concert in 1993, with an incredibly wasted guy yelling at a group of young women while two of his friends were carrying him across the parking lot:

Drunk: I WANNA EAT YOU

Drunk's Friend, trying to cover for him: You mean you'd like to take her out to eat?

Drunk: NO I WANNA EAT YOUR PUSSY

Hey now hey now now...

Here's my map

http://www.270towin.com/maps/1lky3

Why do you guys post big jpgs of text rather than just copying/pasting the text?

joygoat I laughed too hard at that

Bumping the Hispanic/Latino vote further toward Hillary (85/15 instead of 2012's 73/27ish) and upping turnout a couple of points puts Arizona blue but literally no map think it's competitive.
I don't know if I'm being overly optimistic about the vote shift or if that's a quirk of 538's election calculator thing.

holy shit that cycling video

― Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, August 11, 2016 3:20 PM (49 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the combo of the hyper aggressiveness and the surfer accent is really unexpected.

I bet a simple neural network could emulate Trump-speak pretty quickly

People playing with Markov chains:

Insta Trump
Automatic Donald Trump
Trump Chat Bot

Why do you guys post big jpgs of text rather than just copying/pasting the text?

because that's how they're shared on twitter

The stupid tyranny of stupid twitter.

the combo of the hyper aggressiveness and the surfer accent is really unexpected.

It's like you haven't even seen Point Break.

Aggro surfer doesn't say "pull a Trump" he says "pull trump" - you know, like cards. No less insane but we don't have to make everything about the Donald.

LOL: https://americavoteswithcardsagainsthumanity.com/

Today, we’re letting America choose between two new expansion packs about either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

At the end of this promotion, Cards Against Humanity will tally up the sales of both packs, and depending on which pack gets more support, we will donate all the money in support of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

Haha

Are these available internationally?
-
This promotion is only available in the United States. If you don’t currently live in the United States, good

jennifer rubin comes awfully close to endorsing hillary https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/08/10/republicans-could-have-done-what-clinton-is-doing-now/

lol @ CAH that's awesome

They vied for the most anti-immigrant policy. They eschewed the traits Republicans normally are associated with — sobriety, humility, reason, prudence and faith-based morality.

lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpmWFfcXEAAGb2w.jpg

OMFG. Bill West recorded a bunch of Trump quotes in the voice of Futurama's Zapp Brannigan: http://cheezburger.com/894725/list-billy-west-recorded-some-choice-donald-trump-tweets-in-the-voice-of-zapp-brannigan

Love the FAQ in that Cards Against Humanity promotion:

Are these available internationally?
This promotion is only available in the United States. If you don’t currently live in the United States, good.

“This will be an election that will go down in the history books for the evangelicals, for the Christians, for everybody of religion,” said Trump, according to The Hill.

“So go out and spread the word, and once I get in, I’ll do my thing that I do very well,” he continued. “And I figure it’s probably—maybe the only way I’m going to get into heaven, so I better do a good job.”

http://gawker.com/donald-trump-tells-christian-leaders-he-has-to-win-elec-1785178309

“So go out and spread the word, and once I get in, I’ll do my thing that I do very well,” he continued.

http://www.diversityinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Trump-violence.jpg

don't understand why someone would want to spend their final decade or two on earth becoming the most disgraceful person of all time

if you haven't gotten there by the time you're 50, you might as well give up

don't understand why someone would want to spend their final decade or two on earth becoming the most disgraceful person of all time

― Treeship, Thursday, August 11, 2016 7:28 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you answered your own question, kind of. the most!

no press is bad press when ur such a winner that it's a shame

first texas poll in couple of months has trump up 11 http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/08/11/trump-leads-texas-in-ktvt-cbs-11dixie-strategies-poll/?e=nqnAj57idgC1eA

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/763894345959440384

http://gawker.com/donald-trump-finally-tells-a-lie-worth-believing-1785180938

Speaking at a rally in Florida Thursday night, Donald Trump repeatedly said it was Friday. As both the attendant crowd and multiple reporters at the scene noted, it was not.

nytimes editorial board

Right now Mr. Trump is losing, and this very likely terrifies him. Maybe he doesn’t know how to control himself, or comprehend why he should. Or he is simply satisfying his boundless need for attention. But his behavior this week raises a more disturbing scenario. Perhaps he has given up on winning through civil means and does not care about the consequences of his campaign of incitement.

Supposedly a big campaign/RNC 'come to Jesus' meeting tomorrow:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-rnc-meeting-226938

One *small* problem -- Trump isn't going to be there.

I wish I knew a word to describe how I feel about all this. Schadenfreude isn't strong enough.

terrified is a good word. one of the best words.

i've been going with sad!

Confuses childcare services for hotel/club guests with childcare services for employees:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/427e5f6dd29c4c30a99486cdf34cd054/trump-touts-child-care-programs-theyre-guests-only

I've actually been slowly circling back to a theory that was discarded many months ago--that, starting with that phone call with Bill Clinton before he officially entered, Trump is some kind of a mole for Hillary. I realize there's a thousand reasons why that's far-fetched, but his behaviour the past couple of weeks makes no sense at all. That he entered to create mischief for Clinton's side ("You can't win--just put your name in and say whatever you want, ridicule everyone else, create some debate clips we can use in commercials when the general comes around"), incredibly won the nomination despite every attempt to get himself drummed out of the party, then even more miraculously took the lead for a few days...that he would then get crazier than ever seems easier to explain using the mole theory than trying to reconcile his words and actions since he took the lead with the idea that he actually wants to win.

In February, Trump accused the committee of “illegally” making money off of him after it sent out an email fundraising appeal that used his name.

ha

been heartened by the various clips and pictures today of screaming old people. have never been too worried about a trump victory but was darkly certain during the primaries that a permanent fascist constituency was being built that wasn't nearly as grey as the cool kids liked to think -- but he's gotten so artless and incoherent lately i can't imagine anyone being left who hasn't been forwarding HUSSEIN emails to their embarrassed nephews for eight years.

still v concerned about usa's present vulnerability to ambitious horsemen and i sure will be happy if we get all the way to 2017 (let alone 2020) without major political street violence, but trump does seem determined to fall off the horse.

i can't imagine anyone being left

(of course there are plenty left. in general tho the campaign now seems to be dully plowing a recognizable niche out on the fringe whereas it seemed capable before of expanding that niche to swallow half the country.)

Hannity would be first on my list of preferred collateral damage.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/08/11/too-good-to-check-sean-hannitys-tale-of-a-trump-rescue/?tid=sm_fb

That McMullin guy, BTW, has made the ballot in Colorado and his campaign folks are already making noises about Florida.

I like that one of the straws that is breaking the RNC's back currently is that precious Marco Rubio is being threatened in Florida.

Lengthy piece in new york mag last week, v v juicy

Found it:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/alan-grayson-florida-senate-race.html

Rubio's ahead of Murphy by double digits in most polls.

I don't care what y'all say. Florida, the state with the prettiest name, to quote Elizabeth Bishop, is more fun and fucked up than the other 49 put together.

Off-topic followup on that cyclist video posted above, local news tracked the dude down: http://www.thebikecomesfirst.com/incredibly-angry-motorist-apologises-after-road-rage-incident-with-cyclist-video/

Will any journalists have the cojones to follow up with Trump about Russia, the Ukraine and Crimea, or was that, like, days ago?

Preet Bharara has started a corruption probe into the Clinton Foundation. Have a nervous weekend, friends!

h8 this upside down world where I am hoping people don't pay much attention to the influence of big money in politics

xpost Nervous or unsurprised?

Meantime:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-no-need-get-out-the-vote

And buried in this:

The Trump campaign has asked the RNC to open offices in all 50 states, a move one party aide told Daniel is a “complete waste of resources.” For example, why boost resources in a state like Idaho, which is going to vote for Trump, or states like Hawaii or Massachusetts that certainly will not? An RNC source said it was a “fool’s errand” and more for Trump’s “ego” and for “bragging” purposes, instead of deft campaign strategy. The source said it was a “personal request” by Trump to have offices in all 50 states.

https://www.google.com/amp/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/donald-trump-explains-calling-obama-founder-isis-sarcasm/story%3fid=41326238?client=safari

Just a bit of sarcasm

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/hannity-investigation-clinton-health

lmao this shit is so fuckin funny to me, hannity is grasping so hard

better get a team to retrieve a stool sample

well, it would explain why HRC thinks reaching out to Kissinger is a good idea

xxxp Donald Trump: straight talker

xxxp He is truly Reddit's finest.

i love that ABC news provides this clarification:

Obama did not found ISIS. The terrorist group, in its current form, was officially founded by the group's current leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

this is the kind of thing that makes me wonder if the whole "clinton plant" thing might not have some credence:

“We are gonna have tremendous turnout from the evangelicals, from the miners, from the people that make our steel, from people that are getting killed by trade deals, from people that have been just decimated, from the military who are with Trump 100 percent,” he went on. “From our vets because I’m going to take care of the vets.”

“I don’t know that we need to get out the vote,” the Republican nominee concluded. “I think people that really want to vote, they’re gonna just get up and vote for Trump. And we’re going to make America great again.”

you couldn't invent a better charlatan candidate.

something seemes more calculated to me with the 'obama founded isis' thing, like he drew out the statement and just kept saying it over and over

Nah, the guy really is that dumb. Probably someone at a fundraiser told him that Obama should be called the founder of ISIS, and he repeated it for a few days. Guy's a gullible idiot.

does the preet bahara story exist outside a couple fringe right-wing content mills? not that i think it's impossible or whatever but i was googling it and it seems like it's a big dailycaller scoop.

DT: If he would have done things properly, you wouldn’t have had ISIS.

HH: That’s true.

DT: Therefore, he was the founder of ISIS.

HH: And that’s, I’d just use different language to communicate it, but let me close with this, because I know I’m keeping you long, and Hope’s going to kill me.

DT: But they wouldn’t talk about your language, and they do talk about my language, right?

DT: But they wouldn’t talk about your language, and they do talk about my language, right?

is his entire candidacy summed up

For those who wanted some closure on the bicycle story, here's the youtube of the guy capitulating; dude's demeanor, even when not in full-on asshole mode is extremely trumpish
"of course i'm embarrassed, I'm on tv!"

got another link? that one won't load for me for whatever reason

I worry that Trump is blowing his load too early. He suggested the Russians should hack her emails, then he suggested gun people should possibly shoot her, called her the devil and now is literally saying she's responsible for ISIS. I just don't know where you go after this. Maybe "brain transplant from Hitler" has some legs.

The funny thing to me about all this is that the "pivot" every traditional Republican was praying for actually did happen, it just happened in the opposite direction.

Every time I see this thread title I can't help singing it to the tune of "I Don't Know How to Love Him" from Jesus Christ Superstar.

xp to GT:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YevkFAfIEH4

oh right, flash issues: http://tinyurl.com/j22uwf7

https://www.google.com/amp/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/donald-trump-explains-calling-obama-founder-isis-sarcasm/story%3fid=41326238?client=safari

Just a bit of sarcasm

― Treeship, Friday, August 12, 2016 9:30 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

picturing bored teen Trump hanging with Daria: "You know who's totally the founder of ISIS? Obama." Rolls eyes. "A real MVP."

I am aware that the "Clinton plant" is just a pleasant daydream, but I do like the idea that with a few weeks to go he finally starts spending money - on ads supporting Republican candidates in the Senate and the House.

Trump's sarcasm defense reminds me of the time my mom heard me call my brother a whore when we were kids and, when pressed, I insisted that I'd actually called him a horror. No one in that situation bought it and I think everyone knew that no one bought it.

His inability to apologize, however half-assed, is pathological and truly infantile. It's like asking a child with chocolate on their face and fingers, surrounded by candy wrappers, if they at the candy, and they say no and try to blame it on the dog. And then they say they didn't even like the chocolate, anyway.

trump's use of "sarcasm" there is like the dead parrot salesman's brother declaring "it was a pun."

Artist's mock up of Trump/Mexico wall: https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t31.0-8/10382555_4376370543462_4219718631533707336_o.jpg

My bad, that is his proposed wall between the US and Great Britain.

Bereft of life, it rests in peace; if you hadn't nailed it to the perch it'd be pushin' up the daisies! It's run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible! This... is a Brex-Parrot!

does the preet bahara story exist outside a couple fringe right-wing content mills? not that i think it's impossible or whatever but i was googling it and it seems like it's a big dailycaller scoop.

― Mordy, Friday, August 12, 2016 9:14 AM (46 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

so far everyone is just linking the daily caller, but it seems legit. could be bad. clintons would have no-one to blame but themselves if this leads to trump being president.

can someone explain the allegation itt so I don't have to give horrible places any clicks?

hillary traded favors (jobs in the gov, arms sales to foreign countries) for donations to her foundation

Trump's sarcasm defense reminds me of the time my mom heard me call my brother a whore when we were kids and, when pressed, I insisted that I'd actually called him a horror. No one in that situation bought it and I think everyone knew that no one bought it.

him trying to explain the "blood coming out of her whatever" reminded me of the same thing. it's an excuse 12-year old me might've used.

once watched a friend insist fiercely to his parents he'd had no idea "bastard" didn't mean "fish poop"

sort of believe it?

When I was twelve I called my sister a "dildo." My mom said it was a bad word. When I asked her what it meant, she said, "I can't even say it. Wait till your father gets home."

it's an excuse 12-year old me might've used.

Anderson Cooper set the baseline at 5-year-old early on.

glad to hear so many others have attempted this gambit -- i get sent home with a note from school with instructions to give it to my mom (which of course i did, this being catholic school), which explained that i said "shut the damn door" when someone left the door open while we were watching a film strip in a darkened classroom

what i meant, though, see, was that the door was a ~dam~ for the ~light~ and i was just asking for someone to shut the ~dam door~

ok that's the best one

I wonder what's going to come out of this Clinton foundation junk. does anyone know if this could actually be damning for her, or if it's most likely a bunch of smoke? kinda worried since the Comey/emails thing definitely did hurt her quite badly. or at this point is the media so focused on Trump that nobody's going to hear much about it?

also reminds me of our 8th grade science teacher, who won us over by repeated, showy references to an upcoming field trip to hydroelectric plant as "the dam field trip"

Three months doesn't seem long enough for a federal investigation

Simpsons did it

https://frinkiac.com/meme/S08E24/1103635.jpg?b64lines=SEVZLCBXT1VMRAogWU9VIFRXTyBDTE9TRSBUSEUgCkRBTSBET09SPw==

not too worried about the clinton foundation thing tbh, it's still 3 months until the election and there will definitely be some bad news cycles for her and they might last a few days or a week and then trump will say or do something stupid again

I wonder what's going to come out of this Clinton foundation junk. does anyone know if this could actually be damning for her, or if it's most likely a bunch of smoke?

i thought the email server would be a bunch of smoke (could not believe that anyone would care) but Comey's press conference did seem to hurt her so I guess this could too. my guess (based on practically nothing) is that they won't find any intent or smoking gun, but they'll end up bashing her for acting irresponsibly by not creating enough of a firewall between her state work and the foundation.

@mmurraypolitics

New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls
CO: HRC 46, Trump 32 (+14)
FL: HRC 44, Trump 39 (+5)
NC: HRC 48, Trump 39 (+9)
VA: HRC 46, Trump 33 (+13)

Aug 4-10

I worry that Trump is blowing his load too early. He suggested the Russians should hack her emails, then he suggested gun people should possibly shoot her, called her the devil and now is literally saying she's responsible for ISIS. I just don't know where you go after this.

i thought this back in december when he brought up banning muslims, but dude keeps coming thru

goddam

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/764121779195478017

FL
Clinton 41%
Trump 36
Johnson 9
Stein 4

CO
Clinton 41
Trump 29
Johnson 15
Stein 6

I don't think the email thing will wound her any more than she is already, barring the discovery of something big-league illegal. People already don't trust her, even many (most?) of her supporters. But like I posted a while back, she's going to be under investigation non-stop even once elected, morning to night, again and again, for the same shit, over and over, with new shit being thrown in as it's invented/procured. Benghazi, ACA, Clinton foundation, emails. Over and over again.

yup

It's not a Clinton administration if there aren't subpoenas flying around daily

A telling sign from last night (not really new, but still)

https://twitter.com/M_Gelin/status/763900401200619520

yeah I'm just kinda wondering where people's minds are at now. when Clinton's numbers took a dive in July I think a lot of Republicans were still thinking that Trump was going to pivot for the general and tone down the crazy talk. now I think it's been proven that if anything, he will get worse. I don't know how many people would be willing to jump back on the train.

The funny thing to me about all this is that the "pivot" every traditional Republican was praying for actually did happen, it just happened in the opposite direction.

Ha

Trump tells the Miami Herald it would "be fine" if American terror suspects were tried before military tribunals at gitmo. gee, sounds great. also:

Trump spoke to the Herald at the Fontainebleau Hotel, steps from the shoreline and not far from streets the city of Miami Beach has spent millions of dollars elevating to fend off rising seas.

“I’m not a big believer in man-made climate change,” Trump said, despite vast scientific evidence to the contrary. “There could be some impact, but I don’t believe it’s a devastating impact.”

bonuses: some really garbled stuff on cuba and venezuela. the paper, refreshingly, points out many of the things that don't make any sense or are in conflict with reality. the cuba stuff in particular sounds like it would be a real problem for him trying to scrape up republican votes in miami, but i don't really know the ins and outs of the reparations question.

there was a quote the other day where someone asked trump how he felt about people comparing him to hugo chavez; trump fairly clearly had no idea who that was and descended (even more quickly) into word salad

Yeah, that comes out in that same interview; here's Deb's transcription of the relevant portion:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpoGdDXVUAASUAT.jpg

Added Trump, "He freed a lot of people, but it seems the good just die young. You know, I just looked around, and he's gone."

help our working class. end the estate tax and deregulate wall st!

“Any deal you make, you’re going to put a very major paragraph in that deal that under no circumstances can Cuba come back two years later and bring a $3 trillion lawsuit against the United States for reparations,” he said.

The problem with that stance: It would likely also foreclose U.S. efforts — led by the same Cuban Americans Trump will probably hear from — for reparations from Cuba for businesses confiscated by the Castro government.

Trump declined to take a position on the wet-foot, dry-foot policy that allows Cubans who reach U.S. soil to stay in the country. Earlier this year, he questioned the fairness of the Cuban Adjustment Act, which lets Cubans obtain legal status and a path to citizenship.

“I want to listen to what the people are saying,” he said. “And I want to listen specifically to what Cuban people who came to this country and who have lived in this country — Cuban Americans — I want to hear how they feel about it.”

This is a muddle, and I have no idea how my Cuban brethren will handle this muddle. Most of them oppose wet foot dry foot anyway.

Added Trump, "He freed a lot of people, but it seems the good just die young. You know, I just looked around, and he's gone."

― Silence, followed by unintelligible stammering. (Doctor Casino), Friday, August 12, 2016 12:24 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

hahahahahaha

That Chavez answer is spectacular. To think -- all these years and I'd no idea he invented the phrase "forgotten man"!

They're older and they're working harder. It's not supposed to be that way. It's only supposed to be that way for me because I'm working harder. But it's not supposed to be that way.

I am yr voice

I have heard among this clan,
You are called the forgotten man.
Is that what they're saying? well did you evah!
What a swell party this is.

mccrory down 51-44 in latest poll for NC governor

Whenever he's asked about something he clearly knows nothing about, he has to invent an answer anyway, because he can't stand to be thought of as not that smart. Only exception was David Duke and the KKK, of course, there he had no qualms about saying that he didn't know anything.

Hillary should just start answering questions via Def Leppard lyrics now, why make the effort of engaging...

lmao

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CprImCqXEAAsxHn.jpg:large

she's dumb as a doorknob, like her boss

50/50 odds that after losing Trump will sue every news outlet for a cut of the money he made them by running

there is a little something to it... "bezos'" washingtonpost has been going pretty hard this whole season

thats why Im scared there wont be amazing trump staffer tell all books because he'll sue them into oblivion and take all the (yuge) profits

between its irrepublican reportage and neocon opinion pages it's no surprise really

ahahaha remember this shit??

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/betsy-mccaughy-trump-team

Betsy McCaughey's addition to Donald Trump's council of economic advisors seems fitting: Both are conspiracy theory-floating sensationalists who have what you might describe as a hostile relationship with the truth.

Trump announced that McCaughey, along with seven other women, was joining his economic team Thursday after critics noted the council was made up entirely of men, only one Ph.D.-holding economist and four Steves among them, upon its initial rollout.

lol i'd remembered six steves. a fish story.

maybe trump reflexively overstated the number of steves by 50%.

http://www.wbdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Charles-Krauthammer.jpg

for some reason, this is what i imagine all of Trump's Steve to be like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nseBliU80LM

right, we don't have videos anymore. That's the Eric Andre "SUP MELLO" Ranch dude

"I worry that Trump is blowing his load too early. He suggested the Russians should hack her emails, then he suggested gun people should possibly shoot her, called her the devil and now is literally saying she's responsible for ISIS. I just don't know where you go after this. Maybe "brain transplant from Hitler" has some legs.

― frogbs, Friday, August 12, 2016 3:33 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpcquhzXEAEcHoA.jpg

As noted several times, we live in a predominantly progressive community, so while there are a smattering of Republicans here and there, I don't think I've seen a Trump sign anywhere; the only two I've seen at all have been out in the cornfield-filled hinterlands. Anyway, my daughter is taking a cooking camp this week, and she said one of the kids was apparently pro-Trump, which at that age means it's her parents who are Trump supporters. Apparently these 9-year olds had, according to the chef, a thoughtful, respectful political conversation after they were done in the kitchen, but me, being less fair minded, kept wondering who the asshole parent was. Today I learned (I think) who it was, and talk about conforming to stereotype: it was an obese white woman with a southern accent.

Meantime, the dream of New Jersey!

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2016/08/trump-nj-headquarters-closed-not-long-after-it-opened-104651

http://static.politico.com/78/25/3774b55543869444485c75b369b2/trumphq.JPG

gf's little niece (also 9 i think?) said she was for trump the other day but not cuz of parents -- just because she's a kid and trump is the crazy one. gf was immediately like YOU KNOW WHAT BEING FOR TRUMP MEANS RIGHT?

Where the bottom is.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/

Catherine Martinez, New Jersey state director for the Trump campaign, did not return a call to her cell phone or a Twitter message.

Martinez was paid just over $10,000 by the Trump campaign on May 31, but did not receive any payments in June (aside from a travel reimbursement).

Two other staffers were also paid within a few days of the June 7 primary.

Spencer Silverman, a Franklin & Marshall student who served as an intern for Chris Christie until March, but now lists himself as the New Jersey field director for the Trump campaign, according to his LinkedIn page, was paid just over $5,000 on June 8.

Leonel Cantiolo, who also lists himself as the campaign's New Jersey field director, was paid $3,261 on June 10. Neither received additional payments in June. Spending data for July is not yet available.

gf's little niece (also 9 i think?) said she was for trump the other day but not cuz of parents -- just because she's a kid and trump is the crazy one. gf was immediately like YOU KNOW WHAT BEING FOR TRUMP MEANS RIGHT?

― le Histoire du Edgy Miley (difficult listening hour),

smug fucking liberals imo

I saw a guy in a Trump t-shirt in downtown SF this morning. that was a first.

Out on the road today I saw a Trump/Pence sticker a cadillac

lil voice inside your head said bring Bush back
bring Bush back

there is more presence for Gary Johnson lately than Trump in this area - doesn't really make me feel a lot better. there was a Gary Johnson 'rally' at the local brewery which was just 5-6 people acting smug while sipping craft beer and dressed in preppy suits and talking about 401ks and bullshit

Bill Kristol: well, yeah

xp

https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2013-12/enhanced/webdr01/9/12/anigif_enhanced-buzz-29279-1386611777-21.gif

I saw a guy in a Trump t-shirt in downtown SF this morning. that was a first.

They're around but minimal. Closest I saw to a full-throated endorsement in the Bay Area in general was months back -- some dude in his late 20s driving a pickup south of San Jose on the freeway with the obligatory bumper sticker. Both he and the vehicle looked dishevelled.

there was a Gary Johnson 'rally' at the local brewery

I am a fan of local breweries in general, but they are definitely hubs of hipster libertarianism.

guys I posted a Bill Kristol gif can we stare at it

hypnotic wattle

I've only seen one Trump shirt so far, on a tourist inside National Museum of American History. I'm out on the National Mall all the time, where there are throngs of bussed-in tourists and I expected to encounter at least one of the iconic hats.

I've only seen a couple Trump bumper stickers. Have seen more cars that still have Romney/Ryan stickers on back from 4 years ago.

(Attenborough voice) Notice how the mature male billkristol uses his neck pouch to perform a mating display, even in the absence of female billkristols. (/Attenborough voice)

xpost I thought that was a turkey in mating season?

I guess he is sort of a turkey in mating season, if you think about it.

The male turkey enacts this exotic display to attract a mate, but should non appear to his liking, he will stubbornly continue this futile mating dance for the next four years, hoping time will bring someone more to his tastes.

roflz

i saw a faded kerry/edwards sticker on someone's bumper a few weeks ago

man i see those all the time #lolbluedistrict

guys I posted a Bill Kristol gif can we stare at it

i haven't done anything else for 15 minutes

i saw a mcgovern/shriver sticker on a bumper a few weeks ago!

wanted to excoriate the driver for abandoning eagleton

Scott Adams, of course, thinks the "Obama founded ISIS" comment is all-time brilliant:

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/148844611656/the-greatest-cognitive-dissonance-trap-of-all-time

I wonder what this dude's limit is. "Hillary did 9/11?" "Well, it made you think about it, didn't it??"

As recently as 2009 there were still Perot '96 stickers on lamp posts in the town I was living in

there are Spiro T Agnew stickers at the local library but you have to steam them in order for the letters to appear

the national polls seem to be tightening as expected after the convention, close enough that we may even see one or two outliers in which trump leads. important thing to remember: this is not a national race, which is why 538, PW, etc. are all remaining confident in their forecasts.

p.s 538 sucks

There's a Carson sticker on a car in my neighborhood. Not sure if it's a campy joke or sincere.

Also I have a high school friend with a Mondale/Ferraro sticker on his Prius. Unfortunately he undercuts whatever value it might have by constantly pointing it out to people, like hey, do you realize I have a genuine vintage Mondale/Ferraro sticker and like I totes put it on a modern car? Aren't I just the most high larious member of the Wacky Club that you ever did see?

(Of course that's the implicit message of like 65% of all bumper stickers anyway, so.)

538 is really bad this year it's true xp

Also I have a high school friend with a Mondale/Ferraro sticker on his Prius. Unfortunately he undercuts whatever value it might have by constantly pointing it out to people, like hey, do you realize I have a genuine vintage Mondale/Ferraro sticker and like I totes put it on a modern car? Aren't I just the most high larious member of the Wacky Club that you ever did see?

idk what's sadder: this sticker or a Dole sticker. Do those exist? I gotta imagine they've gotta be worth a few hundred bucks in mint condition.

I don't really look at 538 much beyond their general polling updates and that one time I played with their state-map-tool thing - why are ppl so down on them this cycle?

Volatile modeling and dumb articles. The podcast has been not terrible but not amazing either.

I trust Steve Kornacki more tbh

Princeton Election Consortium win probability increased to 74% random drift, 86% Bayesian for Hildawg today

1) the nowcast is so bad it's professionally negligent
2) https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/763717850238480384 <- answer, you built a bad model
3) all the non nate silver pundity is awful

Their prediction models are pretty good but it's tough to account for one candidate basically not trying

until the election it's impossible to say definitively if their predictions are "good" but one of the basic requirements is they shouldn't swing all over the place in response to individual polls

they were also the only people that had trump in the lead during the RNC, during which they went mysteriously quiet and stopped talking about updates to the models, because they clearly didn't believe them

right, and their models were supposed to have the convention bump built in so it was a huge fuck-up. i think they tried to explain it by saying that it was trending towards trump before the conventions so i guess the model forgot about the convention bump and just assumed any more movement towards trump was legitimate.

I have a Mondale/Ferarro bumper sticker somewhere (unstuck).

one of my neighbors has a quiet little Gary Johnson sticker on his car.

and they don't write about burritos anymore

I don't understand the nowcast criticism - for the '538 experience' there's no reason to look at anything but the Polls-Plus model, which has been fairly steady

The problem with the nowcast is that it's irresponsible to have it on the website at all

Only if people looking at it are too dumb to read all the disclaimers about how all the nowcast means is that the latest polls would lead to X and that it's irrelevant.

the nowcast is not a prediction about an event that is going to take place. it's not like the other two. it's a diagnostic tool that is next to impossible to interpret for anyone except NS. it shouldn't be up there. it's up there for obvious reasons though.

if the disclaimers say "don't use this" (which they should), then maybe just don't put it up there. interpreting probabilistic predictions is a hard enough task for their audience without bullshit like that.

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 8h8 hours ago
I love watching these poor, pathetic people (pundits) on television working so hard and so seriously to try and figure me out. They can't!

puttering pundbobs of patheticity

my main criteria in choosing who to vote for is "does this person love watching things they hold in contempt on television?"

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1sKS5gRMkvw/USxaQ0vaIVI/AAAAAAAABAU/WCOBOzzf60c/s1600/dalegribble.png

"you can't know me...I AM UNKNOWABLE!"

I've seen just one Trump yard sign in my town, but I suspect he's got a fair amount of support in this rural area.

Trump in Erie, PA:

"We don't win anymore. You people [pointing to the crowd] don't win, that's for sure."

I think I've seen one of the iconic Hillary signs, on the inside of someone's porch window.

I can see Trump from my house!

^^That's what he'd like to believe!

Be careful, he might see you and try to implicate you in the Kennedy assassination!

It was only the now-cast that had Trump in the lead after the RNC, right? The other two just showed the race tightening, which it was before the RNC as well.

Still haven't seen a Trump sign in OC, but that insane surfer vs. cyclist video happened in the next town up the coast.

when I was driving through rural eastern Washington back in May, there were tons of Trump signs. also weed dispensaries

"also"

Saw a few (maybe 6-7) Trump signs in rural-ish eastern upstate NY, a few of them homemade. Zero signs in urban areas, though.

538's fine! They provide lots of explanation of how much credence you should put in what. Even today, when the "now-cast" sits at 87-13 or whatever, they make it a point to say that a 13% chance of something happening is not at all a remote possibility. It's no different than some of the junk baseball stats that Bill James will occasionally throw out there. He'll say this is fun, this is interesting, don't take it that seriously. Same thing.

seems like pointless clickbait/trolling to me

http://crooksandliars.com/files/mediaposters/2016/08/34198.jpg?ts=1471023905

I really and truly do not get this woman. She goes on CNN every day and people yell at her. From the right, from the left, guests, hosts, everyone ridicules her and throws up their hands in exasperation. I guess she'll be rewarded in the future for her undying loyalty. (I mean, I understand surrogates and spinning and all that. But she's beyond anything I've ever seen.)

Is she the replacement for the brunette with the bullet necklace?

No Katrina Pierson still bringing the crazy the rest of the day.

I'm not sure who that is...Katrina Pierson? Anyway, she--Kayleigh McEnany--has been one of CNN's two primary Trump mouthpieces for many months (Jeffrey Lord the other).

It's no different than some of the junk baseball stats that Bill James will occasionally throw out there. He'll say this is fun, this is interesting, don't take it that seriously. Same thing.

Baseball is a game.

when I was driving through rural eastern Washington back in May, there were tons of Trump signs. also weed dispensaries

I live in rural eastern washington and I've only seen two, they seem conspicuously absent when there are SO MANY other signs for republicans everywhere. But yes on the weed stores, there are now four in my ~30,000 person town.

Also I still own one of these shirts that I bought for $5 from a guy in a trailer park in Michigan in 1992:
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/83/d3/25/83d3250d8d1b5d245c0131bb6ca8e74d.jpg

Kayleigh McEnany goes on CNN and takes abuse from everyone because she truly truly believes that Trump is the best solution for America's problems and believe that she can convince smart people to vote for him with her words. She's a Trump evangelist.

I would feel bad for her if Trump weren't the worst person in America, but what do you know, he is.

538 is the worst form electoral prediction, except for all the others.

a friend of mine has an original reagan/helms '80 shirt that he still wears

maybe thats 76? shit I wasnt alive anyway.

There are more Zapp Brannigan Trump quotes... these are... amazing.

I don't really look at 538 much beyond their general polling updates and that one time I played with their state-map-tool thing - why are ppl so down on them this cycle?

― Οὖτις, Friday, 12 August 2016 18:51 (3 hours ago) Permalink

Volatile modeling and dumb articles. The podcast has been not terrible but not amazing either.

― Mordy, Friday, 12 August 2016 18:54 (2 hours ago) Permalink

i don't follow the debates concerning 538 as closely as some of you. i don't seem to grasp the critique entirely.

you'd expect the "polls only" forecast to be volatile, since they are designed to change with each new poll, which is necessarily based on a sample size quite a bit smaller than the voting population.

is the argument that the "polls-plus" forecast is likewise overly volatile given the dynamics of this race?

are we sure we're not critical of 538 because they estimate trump's chances of winning as higher than we'd like to imagine? (i.e. the reverse of those right-wing websites who chatter about "unskewed" polls.)

I've been wearing this a lot lately (not an original...and that's not me):

http://i1059.photobucket.com/albums/t427/sayhey1/nixon_zps3wqnh9cs.jpg

Unlike the other Nixon T-shirt I wore a few years ago, people look at me sideways now. It's the "Vote Republican," and also Trump. A woman sat down beside me at a movie last month and said, "Nice shirt--I hope it's ironic." I mumbled something about rain and weddings.

i don't understand why you would wear that even ironically

Rain/weddings?

Nm,

yeah, well i've been wearing this a lot lately

http://rlv.zcache.com/wallace_68_t_shirt-rdbe853e3e3f84d199ef1c11dacda746a_jy9a7_512.jpg

hilarious!

x-post

I used to have a thrift store "Teachers For [Bill] Clinton" shirt.

i don't understand why you would wear that even ironically

ya rly

it reminds me of that billy joel song where everything --including major humanitarian disasters, political ideologies, etc. -- is reduced to pop-culture trivia.

I think I still have a Viva Kennedy button from when my brother dragged me to a Dem election center in Merced, Ca in 1968.

I would feel bad for her if Trump weren't the worst person in America, but what do you know, he is.

Agree w/this, but I do enjoy the deer-in-headlights look she gets when the other panelists (left or right) call Trump on his bullshit.

it reminds me of that billy joel song where everything --including major humanitarian disasters, political ideologies, etc. -- is reduced to pop-culture trivia.

https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/762458291897192448

I live in rural eastern washington and I've only seen two, they seem conspicuously absent when there are SO MANY other signs for republicans everywhere.

oh duh that might be because I wrote eastern but meant *western* Washington (basically Aberdeen north to Olympic NP). it was also right around the time of the primary, so some may have come down since? the dispensary per capita ratio was truly remarkable though, like we passed through several towns that literally had no other businesses, maybe a gas station at most

one thing I love about RealClearPolitics is it pastes a smattering of opinion articles on the election on the front page, so you can read batshit stuff from the Moonies, The Federalist, and "Washington Examiner" amongst the NYT/WaPo articles. Get the whole spectrum!

Nixon fascinates me more than any other politician ever. Simple.

well that's true for me too but wearing a shirt like that implies endorsement or "I'm being ironic bro" status

so don't be surprised when people react that way to you

you know who fascinates me? Nathan Bedford Forrest. i'm bout to get one of those Nate Forrest tees from American Apparel.

i used to have a tito shirt, but then we broke

would wear an augustus shirt tbh :/

http://s3.amazonaws.com/images.store.woven.com/products/66/large/reagan-right-bro.jpeg

I don't think I expressed surprise, exactly--I was just noticing the difference between this and the other Nixon T-shirt I wore a few years ago, which I partly attribute to the slogan but also partly to Trump. I wasn't shattered or anything.

Jesus, amateurist, give the piety a rest. I think you were on here a few days ago calling someone an idiot because he didn't have the same interpretation of a film as you, and I think you've even gotten temporary bans here for some of your more thoughtful commentary. It's a T-shirt.

forget it jake....

sorry, didn't mean to be pious. i just thought "i was fascinated by..." was a weird reason for wearing a t-shirt and decided to take the logic to a few farcical conclusions.

One would have sufficed. I got your point.

gentle mockery, in other words

(my auto-translate wanted to render "mockery" as "hockey")

i apologize for overdoing it!

i got one temporary ban for a bad-taste analogy involving morbs fwiw, and it was deserved.

someone put Sherman looking all irritable on a t shirt and i'll wear the fuck out of it

538 never had Trump ahead, or even close.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

it was the NowCast I believe that had him ahead

It's the now-cast that complaints about 538 are directed at.

But the Now-cast isn't their prediction, it's a toy.

it should change the colors to magenta and chartreuse when you click on the nowcast

should call it the Fartcast

it should play fart.wav on a loop when you open it

where does he get such wonderful nowcasts

(xpost) I agree, AF. It's like looking at baseball standings this morning--I'm happy the Jays are in first, but the league's not awarding them a playoff spot, and I'm well aware things can and undoubtedly will change before October.

did 538 have three different forecasts or just the one in 2012? thought I remembered the latter but it's been so long....

((since some folks seem to bring this up every other week, and few provide any context, i feel oddly compelled to do so myself. plz ignore this if you don't give a shit, which is probably everyone except me. so: morbs indicated in some long-forgotten thread that he wished the ACA were repealed. he opined that he didn't care about the consequences to people who might lose health-care coverage, b/c it was a bad law etc. etc usual making-the-perfect-the-enemy-of-the-good stuff.. i wrote something about how his insurance should be cut off and he would lose access to his cancer care. it was a poorly-thought-out way of trying to get him to understand, viscerally, what an ACA repeal would mean to thousands of people. in other words, it was a rhetorical gesture, not an actual /wish/— just like i imagine or hope morbs's comment about not caring about the consequences of a repeal was likewise a hyperbolic piece of rhetoric. i understand how people took the comment, and i accept why i was banned. i don't follow ILX closely enough to know if morbs has likewise been banned for the rather routine posts in which he wishes other ILXORs dead, but i'll presume he does.))

I'm sorry I brought that up. I get defensive when cornered.

we can't let Trump do this to us

Pretty sure they only had one in '08 and '12.

I feel like there's some backlash against Silver this cycle. Maybe a lot of that has to do with the new site--I didn't look at it when it first started, just started looking in again the past couple of months. I don't know how bad it was early on. Some of it may have to do with him being wrong about Trump through the primaries, or at least early on. In 2012, I spent the last month saying he was too optimistic about Obama's chances. I was wrong.

re: 538: i have griped about them numerous times this cycle, never for the nowcast. the quality of the writing and depth of the analysis have gone down considerably in the espn era, as the articles are shorter, more numerous, and mostly not by silver. they were 'special' and now they mostly read lke ordinary pundits except they'll throw in one or two charts (if two, one is a link back to a chart from six months ago). it's a very different site than four years ago.

also yes, now that you bring it up, the nowcast is dumb clickbait, and pretty obviously dictated from on high for that exact reason. the site works best as nate silver writing an extensive pontification on a forest of numbers once or twice per fortnight, nothing else. or as i said a few months ago:

The thing about 538 is that they really, truly treat political races like basketball or any other thing which might be susceptible to a "data" analysis. Interpretation of real-world relevance, causes and effects, perspective, historical context, values, and meaning are all essentially outside of their wheelhouse, and whenever they venture that-a-way the stuff they say is absolutely maddening.

― never ending bath infusion (Doctor Casino), Saturday, 9 April 2016 19:41 (4 months ago) Permalink

^^ agreed w/ clickbait. they spend so much time defending their methodology on the model and shit and then theyre like 'well theres also this nowcast which is a fucking joke and means nothing but please go take a look at it on the site'

i think it's irresponsible even w/ the disclaimer. i'm aware that it's trash and i still check it out when i visit the site bc it's there to check out. and it inevitably colors my perception of the race bc i don't have total objectivity. if you are building your brand on accuracy + credibility don't have features that undermine that.

I'm going to build my own polling model and only circulate the results as a text file via anonymous FTP and gopher

it's the web and you are reading it for free ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Hate to get back to T-shirt talk, but I went out for a burrito and there's a guy in a Reagan/Bush tee here.

it's the web and you are reading it for free ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

saving this for later use, on the slim chance that anybody on ilx ever again takes issue with anything published on the internet.

lol that's fair, sorry

silver built his brand on being largely right in the last two elections, but he is now owned by espn/disney, which wants hits more than just every fourth october. so yeah you're going to get burritos and nowcast, the hot take of polls. just ignore it and take what you find valuable

Wtf is irresponsible about it? You really worried that one tool treated lightly is going to elect Trump or something because the tiny percentage of people who use it won't vote?

i only read the nowcast because it's fiery and volatile just like i am.

Wouldn't the now-cast have just been called..."polling" 40 years ago? Weren't all polls now-casts back then? (Allowing that it's expressed as a probability rather than survey data.)

election should be a best of 7 series

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/12/politics/donald-trump-pennsylvania-cheating/index.html

i do believe he's trying to lose

gonna need reince and paul to weigh in on this

smart, a large part of his base are the same people that ate up the same circular logic of

Premise: Iraq is stockpiling weapons of mass destruction
Data: We found no such stockpile
Conclusion: Iraq is hiding them

he'll drop out in October and say "it's clear that this isn't going to be a fair fight, rampant evidence of improprieties, and it wouldn't be fair to go through with this facade of an election"...

I'm not watching the video, but it's really great journalism for the accompanying story not to mention that PA has voted Democratic in 7 of the last 10 elections, including the last 6 in a row.

"Trump says Clinton is cheating (she might be)"

Go down to certain areas and watch and study and make sure other people don't come in and vote five times

god

I'm going to build my own polling model and only circulate the results as a text file via anonymous FTP and gopher

I like this idea but would prefer to have results delivered via barbershop quartet singing telegrams

"certain areas" - - - what a shitbag.

otherpeople

At his first rally of the day, Trump put his dislike of the media in harsher terms than usual -- calling journalists "the lowest form of life."
"I tell you, the lowest," he said. "They are the lowest form of humanity."

Vermin, even.

let us crush them, even as bugs, disregarding the stuff that oozes out of them, for they are among the lowest form of life and not deserving of our mercy

doubt trump's people have forgotten how ecstatically titillated they were by the spectacle of a new black panther standing outside a philly polling place in 2008 (doubt trump has forgotten this either as it is exactly the sort of white-underworld obama-era shitmeme he consumes) and expect they are thrilled to be commanded to a white vigilantism to match the black vigilantism of their dreams

i do believe he's trying to lose

― nomar, Friday, August 12, 2016 2:57 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he's trying to cause trouble, for the same reason he buys casinos: to put his name on it

i meant 2012.

This made me think of that parody list posted earlier, the one that ended with Trump joining ISIS and marrying his daughter:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/290995-geraldo-rivera-calls-out-trumps-bull

Somewhere on that downward spiral: "Alienate all remaining corners of Crazy Media defending you."

At his first rally of the day, Trump put his dislike of the media in harsher terms than usual -- calling journalists "the lowest form of life."
"I tell you, the lowest," he said. "They are the lowest form of humanity."

"What the hell were you thinking, John? ‘The media are leeches’ – do you know who reports comments like ‘the media are leeches’? The media report them, John!"

Something to look forward to this fall - the candidate opening a castle-like building at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-hotel-in-washington-d-c-to-open-ahead-of-schedule-1454901018

Also, missed until now this long Andrew Sullivan piece from May. Holds up.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/america-tyranny-donald-trump.html

are we sure we're not critical of 538 because they estimate trump's chances of winning as higher than we'd like to imagine? (i.e. the reverse of those right-wing websites who chatter about "unskewed" polls.)

― wizzz! (amateurist), Friday, August 12, 2016 5:57 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he was below 10% last week in 2/3 of their forecasts.

538 never had Trump ahead, or even close.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

― Andrew Farrell, Friday, August 12, 2016 7:17 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

that's one of the three forecasts (and not the "default" on you get when you visit http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/). he was ahead in the other two.

I do sometimes use RCP as an enthusiasm check, as it is generally right-leaning. 538 presents the different ways of assessing probability (as opposed to raw spread) Both are simply aggregators, not pollsters - oddly some people (not here) are confused on this point. The differences lie in weighting and what they are willing to say about their averages.

There is a relevant xkcd https://xkcd.com/1131/

Something to look forward to this fall - the candidate opening a castle-like building at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-hotel-in-washington-d-c-to-open-ahead-of-schedule-1454901018

I am going to be watching this off and on to see if they do well or if they wind up having to re-brand. I cannot imagine that business travelers or even tourists will be flocking to pay premium rates to stay in a Trump property in DC. And event planners might also end up avoiding it like the plague, which would really be the death knell for the thing. I wonder how difficult it is to back out of a 60-year lease with the GSA?

If, after two years, he moves on and lets some other firm take over the lease, it will be a nice "with a whimper" button on this shitty adventure

From Nate Silver's Twitter today:

"In USC/LATimes poll, Trump supporters' likelihood of voting has fallen a bunch over past week. His "rigged" message may depress his turnout."

Not to fixate on this, but doesn't the now-cast at least have some historical value, giving a good idea of how the election progressed over the summer? When we look back at the way Bush came back in '88, or at Truman-Dewey, those polls have historical value. But they also had the limitations of their day--Truman/Dewey, I assume, was Gallup only, and Bush/Dukakis polling, even if it wasn't a single poll, was probably an average of a few polls only. (Don't know how widespread polling was in '88.) 538 is drawing from numerous polls, and also weighting them for reliability and currency. So when you look at their now-cast line graph through the summer, won't that be an accurate illustration 20 years from now of how this election progressed?

SUre, but that would also be true of the "polls-only" graph over time, and that doesn't involve the seductive/misleading "if the election were held today" angle.

Will be interesting/revealing whether any Republicans join the too-little-too-late repudiation of Trump over the "rigged" stuff specifically - IMHO it's as dangerous and fascistic as anything else he's said, and even more up the alley of the party that's supposed to be obsessed with the Constitution and the smooth functioning of our heroic one-of-a-kind republic etc.

(xpost) But the way I understand it, the polls-only doesn't track the election day-to-day; it's tracking what would happen in November based on day-to-day polling. In other words, the now-cast for today tells us what would happen if the election literally were held today; the polls-only tells us what will happen Nov. 8 based on all the polls to date and based on historical polling trends (i.e., the way the gap inevitably narrows as the election gets closer). And, of the two, it's the now-cast that is aligned with the polling done in 1988 and 1948, it's just a better--much more input--version.

Am I misunderstanding? I could be!

From what I remember of 1988, Bush came back after the GOP convention and never lost his lead again (Steve Kornacki mentioned it too, I think).

it was all over after he bent over to shake Dukakis's hand

clemenza: No, that's correct... I guess I just mean that they might as well just call it "unadjusted non-predictive poll-averager" and get the same "track the polls across the campaign" kinda deal, like the graphs at RCP. That might take away some of the annoyance but basically if you make a whole career out of saying "it doesn't make sense to talk about what would happen if the election were held today, the polls grow more meaningful with time, how they're behaving versus longer trends is more interesting than where they are right this second" then to have any tool that slaps up "where they are right this second" is kinda dumb. Maybe if it were just kinda shuffled off by itself or with another group of "fun toys" rather than put right alongside the predictive ones. I dunno, it's just lame is all.

Polls only and Polls plus seems a little like bet-hedging to a degree too.

Differences between polls-only and now-cast

The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.
As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.
There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.

the only model of theirs i trust this season, considering the weird lack of historical precedent for this year, their failure to capture the republican side of the primaries, etc, is the polls-only.

That's right about '88: the big lead that Dukakis (supposedly) held was gone by the time the conventions were over. As I posted a few days ago, Guiliani was on CNN last week pretending that Dukakis still had an eight-point lead in September (and that therefore Trump's collapse means nothing historically).

What Silver really needs is some kind of Crazy Stuff Trump Has Yet to Say adjustment built into all three models.

I got PEC on my phone with StatX. Sweeeeet

Wang actually was critical of 538's methodology in a recent article.

re: bet-hedging, yes it is.

https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/762338039855255552

for those worried NDAs will affect the post election autopsy journalism, worry not http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign-gop.html?_r=0&referer=

"He broods about his souring relationship with the news media, calling Mr. Manafort several times a day to talk about specific stories. Occasionally, Mr. Trump blows off steam in bursts of boyish exuberance: At the end of a fund-raiser on Long Island last week, he playfully buzzed the crowd twice with his helicopter."

I don't know which of these two sentences is better.

lol

https://twitter.com/JTSantucci/status/764240592482205696

when i see trump signs in my hometown the effect is sorta lynchian. not sure if this would be true of any other candidate

There will probably be a few Harry Dean Stanton write-in votes

At the end of a fund-raiser on Long Island last week, he playfully buzzed the crowd twice with his helicopter.

does nobody remember Randy Rhoads?

i remember lonesome

Like son, like father.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/12/1559583/-Pat-Buchanan-says-if-Trump-loses-it-means-American-democracy-is-fraudulent-and-rotten?detail=facebook