"800 Missiles to hit Iraq in First 48 Hours"

Message Bookmarked
Bookmark Removed
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/01/25/1042911596206.html

Earth, allow me to apologize on behalf of America, as this is some of the scariest shit I've ever read.

nickalicious (nickalicious), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 20:45 (twenty-three years ago)

When is all this supposed to go down (Let me apologize too, as I'm all american).

Sarah McLusky (coco), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 20:52 (twenty-three years ago)

I hate the U.S. government's ability to show any complexity about the subject. For chrissakes, they sound PROUD that there will be "no safe place in Baghdad".

I've got mixed feelings about Iraq/U.S. interaction at this point (obviously SOME sort of threat, but is this how we deal with threats? Is it better to ignore a threat or act rashly?), but I sure as hell don't appreciate the moronic "rah-rah" bullshit coming from the Bush administration. They WANT to bomb. It's so blatant, and it's so disgusting.

Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 20:58 (twenty-three years ago)

I was listening to an interesting piece on NPR yesterday about speach writing in which someone pointed out that by labeling Iraq and other areas as "evil" we are suggesting that there is no possibility of negotiation, only of complete destruction.

Sarah McLusky (coco), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 21:01 (twenty-three years ago)

The hyperbole is becoming ridiculous, I agree.

Lara (Lara), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 21:09 (twenty-three years ago)

Colin Powell should be releasing a lot of declassified intel to the UN Security Council & inspectors soon. Should be interesting.

I just wish they'd get it over with.

Millar (Millar), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 21:52 (twenty-three years ago)

They sorta have to release it -- one of the perverse and few pleasures over this whole thing is watching BushCo slowly but surely come to grips with the fact that *just maybe* they might actually get somewhere by doing more than saying, "Look, we just know, all right? Sheesh."

Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 21:54 (twenty-three years ago)

I hate that "so safe place in baghdad" comment. why can't we say "those who are committed to ensuring that Iraq never develops into a healthy democratic society" or something like that. are pro-american dissidents in Iraq not safe as well simply because tey live in Baghdad?

Aaron Grossman (aajjgg), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 21:56 (twenty-three years ago)

TS: "so safe place in baghdad" vs. "Shock and Awe"

Andy K (Andy K), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 21:58 (twenty-three years ago)

I choose bunny rabbits!

Aaron Grossman (aajjgg), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:01 (twenty-three years ago)

fucking hell.

di smith (lucylurex), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:02 (twenty-three years ago)

Yeah, but if they are saying "so safe place" that's probably more honest. It sounds as though the bombing will be even more indiscriminate than last time around.

Rockist Scientist, Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:02 (twenty-three years ago)

Wait, why does "no" come out as "so." Testing.

Rockist Scientist, Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:04 (twenty-three years ago)

"no safe place"

Rockist Scientist, Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:05 (twenty-three years ago)

Glad someone caught it. So So Def Place in Baghdad?

Of course by saying 'no safe place in Baghdad' so far ahead of time in the int'l press he is kind of warning any pro-American dissidents to pack up and move to the NNFZ.

Millar (Millar), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:07 (twenty-three years ago)

I hate that "so safe place in baghdad" comment. why can't we say "those who are committed to ensuring that Iraq never develops into a healthy democratic society" or something like that. are pro-american dissidents in Iraq not safe as well simply because tey live in Baghdad?

From the people* who brought you "We had to destroy the village to save it."

* And certain people who happened not to go to Vietnam as young adults.

j.lu (j.lu), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:08 (twenty-three years ago)

all of the above confusion can be traced back to MY typo. sorry. and the bunny rabbit comment, while too flippant, underscores the lack of any true choice. The choices are "War as utter destruction VS the majesty of the process and technology of utter destruction"

Aaron Grossman (aajjgg), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:13 (twenty-three years ago)

How about "the majesty of the threat of utter destruction as a deterrent against murderous dictators"?

If the average iraqi infantryman knows we can do this, is he more or less likely to carry out an order from good ol' friendly Saddam to use WMDs against us?

Stuart, Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:36 (twenty-three years ago)

you missed my point.

Aaron Grossman (aajjgg), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:40 (twenty-three years ago)

This is so fucked up I can't begin to comment.

Andrew (enneff), Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:47 (twenty-three years ago)

Explain?

Stuart, Wednesday, 29 January 2003 22:53 (twenty-three years ago)

>I was listening to an interesting piece on NPR yesterday about speach
> writing in which someone pointed out that by labeling Iraq and other
> areas as "evil" we are suggesting that there is no possibility of
> negotiation, only of complete destruction.

The speechwriter for the "axis of evil" speech said that the reason he included N. Korea in the axis was because he needed a third member besides Iran and Iraq and that it shouldn't be a Muslim country in order for the axis not to appear anti-Islam. N. Korea was rather pissed at being called evil, and it made bad relations w/ the US even worse, leading to a situation far worse than with Iraq.

But think about what this means. Foreign policy was determined not any cabinet members or foreign policy experts, but by a fucking speechwriter!

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:02 (twenty-three years ago)

So how was that different from the Reagan years?

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:04 (twenty-three years ago)

Yes. Silly speechwriter. How could he possibly have known that it would turn out that NK had been buying the technology to make enriched-uranium atomic bombs from Pakistan? Now thanks to him it's all gone downhill. We could have just let them keep quietly building weapons, but NOOOO.

Point is it's not as if NK was just arbitrarily picked as an 'evil' country -if anything Kim Jong Il is more terrifying and dangerous dictator than Saddam ever was or could be.

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:08 (twenty-three years ago)

The fact that North Korea is evil probably figured into the equation at some point.

On preview: what Millar said.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:10 (twenty-three years ago)

If anybody is wondering why we would be so absolutely horrible as to use 800 cruise missiles to flatten the stronghold of a dictator, and be so utterly ugly about it that we WARN EVERYBODY weeks in advance, I suggest watching 'Black Hawk Down' and imagining that all the Somalis are actually trained in the use of assault rifles (meaning they can aim them) and equipped with actual anti-aircraft weapons (as opposed to rocket-propelled grenades scavenged for the purpose).

Unless you are rooting for US & coalition casualties in the three and four digit range, I think you might agree that 800 cruise missiles is probably about right.

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:15 (twenty-three years ago)

>Point is it's not as if NK was just arbitrarily picked as an 'evil'
> country -if anything Kim Jong Il is more terrifying and dangerous
> dictator than Saddam ever was or could be.

I said just that in my prevoius post that N. Korea is far worse than Iraq. So Millar, why aren't we invading N. Korea again? Cause they might actually put up a fight? What about Pakistan? They make pretty shitty "allies" (I forget the name of it, but the Pakistani version of the CIA are big supporters of the Taliban and are hiding most of the remain uncaptured leaders). Same thing with Saudi Arabia. The fact is, the world is filled with countries we would have reasons to attack, but we pick the weakest, most broken down country of them all. rah rah go america!

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:18 (twenty-three years ago)

Yeah, we probably should have attacked Soviet Russia too

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:19 (twenty-three years ago)

>Unless you are rooting for US & coalition casualties in the three and
>four digit range, I think you might agree that 800 cruise missiles is
>probably about right.

In all the years of enforcing the "no fly zones", how many manned planes of our got shot down? Like, zero. We cvould easily just use regular old carbet bombong, but we got to be hi-tech (and expensive)

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:20 (twenty-three years ago)

Millar, I'm rooting for no war on Iraq.

Utterly destroying civilian infrastructure and creating a massive refugee situation (momentarily accepting that civilians will be out of Baghdad in time) sounds pretty horrible to me.

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:22 (twenty-three years ago)

What's left of the civilians infrastructure, since it certainly isn't what it was before the first (US-Iraq) Gulf War.

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:23 (twenty-three years ago)

>Yeah, we probably should have attacked Soviet Russia too

Well, there you go. We wont fight anyone who might put up a fight. Those lucky countries get the option of diplomacy. All the pitiful, weak countries get regime changes at gunpoint. USA! USA!

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:23 (twenty-three years ago)

The threat is just a tactic to scare Saddam into exile--they probably won't send 800, or even half that many.

Curtis Stephens, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:28 (twenty-three years ago)

Millar, I'm rooting for no war on Iraq.

Great! I would too but that's little like cheering the Raiders in the fourth and has been since September 2001 or so.

fletrejet, that comment is barely above a troll. I live near DC and I don't necessarily want a dirty bomb, much less a real one, to go off near my home anytime soon. You go on with your bad self.

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:31 (twenty-three years ago)

>fletrejet, that comment is barely above a troll. I live near DC and I
> don't necessarily want a dirty bomb, much less a real one, to go off
> near my home anytime soon. You go on with your bad self.

Yes, the dirty bomb Iraq will build with its non-existent radioactive material. You fall for every government propaganda ploy.

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:42 (twenty-three years ago)

Yeah, working for them has that effect I suppose. I just believe everything I hear!

Weren't you the one suggesting that the FAA & the AF may have had something to do with 9/11? I see yr citical thinking skills are well-honed.

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:46 (twenty-three years ago)

>Weren't you the one suggesting that the FAA & the AF may have had
> something to do with 9/11? I see yr citical thinking skills are well-
> honed.

Conspiracy or not, at least I am questioning why the most powerful airforce in the world couldn't respond in time to stop four slow-moving commercial airliners hijacked over the period of a few hours (among other things)


fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 00:54 (twenty-three years ago)

The speechwriter for the "axis of evil" speech said that the reason he included N. Korea in the axis was because he needed a third member besides Iran and Iraq and that it shouldn't be a Muslim country in order for the axis not to appear anti-Islam.

The flaw in this argument is that an axis of two wouldn't have seemed in the slightest bit incongruous in a Dubya speech.

Matt DC (Matt DC), Thursday, 30 January 2003 11:11 (twenty-three years ago)

If there is war I am "rooting for" the strategy which results in least people dying.

Tom (Groke), Thursday, 30 January 2003 11:19 (twenty-three years ago)

Don't believe a word of it, folks. Tom hates Iraqis. Always has, always will.

N. (nickdastoor), Thursday, 30 January 2003 11:21 (twenty-three years ago)

Millar seems to have not realised that if the US doesn't send any troops to Iraq then very few will be in danger of being killed by Iraqis.

toraneko (toraneko), Thursday, 30 January 2003 11:27 (twenty-three years ago)

Of the nations included in the AoE speech Iran least deserved to be their. Slowly but surely Iran is becoming the Islamic republic it ought to be, and stepping ever closer to being an Islamic democracy. Raprochement with Iran is the way forward now good people are gradually pushing the fundamentalists out of power.

Rattling NK's cage was a bad move. Diplomacy appeared to be working there as well. Saddam was caged and cowed. Yet not one senior Al Qu'aida figure has been caught and brought to Justice. Those reponsibe for 11/9 are still either free or unconfirmed dead. As Peter Begren points out Saddam is a Secular Fascist something that Osama Bin LAden hates above even the Al Saud monarchy. He went as far as calling Saddam a bad muslim, possibly the worst insult bin Laden can throw. I do admit that Saddam could find common cause with Osama, but it would take a big leap in mindsets. Saddam is far too paranoid to take up with someone so implacably opposed to him.

What is far more worrying is that, quite possibly, Al Qu'aida could take up with, (and probably already has), Islamist Iraqi opposition and make hell for any new iraqi administration or occupying force.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 30 January 2003 11:32 (twenty-three years ago)

in one of the previous Iraq threads fletjret was talking abt awful conspiracy theories but here he is OTM and there is nothing trollish here millar.

Julio Desouza (jdesouza), Thursday, 30 January 2003 12:04 (twenty-three years ago)

Can someone with a greater grasp of military history provide examples of where bombing campaigns on this scale have broken morale to the extent that military conquest has been made easier?

I can't helping thinking that if you draw a parallel between Baghdad 2003 and London during WW2; the population didn't cave in, call upon Churchill to acquiesce, not rise up against the state. They listened to stirring broadcasts and resolved not to cave in to the aggressor.

The theory seems to be 'they hate Saddam but if we bomb the fuck out of them, it will be the final push to give them the outrage and anger to overthrow him'. Which seems to be on a par with lefties rejoicing in 1979 that Thatcher would push the proletariat into the arms of revolutionary socialism as capitalism in tooth and claw was unleashed on them. There will doubtless be some who make the link - but I'd suggest that the outrage will be directed to the people who fired the cruise missles that killed your loved ones, not Saddam Hussein.

Dave B (daveb), Thursday, 30 January 2003 12:20 (twenty-three years ago)

Good point. cf. Germany kept on fighting after Hamburg and Dresden. The Iraqi Army did melt away in '91 and the people did rise up, but I get a sneaking suspicion that this time the Iraqis are going to be just as anti-USUK as they are anti-Saddam. In 90/91 Saddam didn't even tell his chief of the Army that he was invading Kuwait. There was little support in the Army and the Army gave up. I think that a significant proportion of Iraqis are going to take umbrage with their country being invaded, just as happened and is still happening in Afghanistan.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 30 January 2003 12:28 (twenty-three years ago)

fletrejet's foreign policy is far, far more simplistic than anything Bush has ever been accused of.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 12:47 (twenty-three years ago)

> fletrejet's foreign policy is far, far more simplistic than anything Bush has ever been accused of.

How would you know what my foreign policy is, I haven't discussed anything much beyond the fact that I do not deem Iraq a big enough threat to justify war?

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 15:13 (twenty-three years ago)

Can someone with a greater grasp of military history provide examples of where bombing campaigns on this scale have broken morale to the extent that military conquest has been made easier?

I don't have any "greater grasp" really, but the use of huge numbers of cruise missiles rather than carpet bombing seems to be the kind of thing designed to make job of the officers and leadership impossible. "Morale" is a pretty vague and undefinable thing to try to bomb, but knocking out every phone booth, traffic light, and lightswitch in the country in one day by air would create a logistical mess that no leadership could deal with.

Darkly, I'm pretty "optimistic" about the war in that I think the US military could pull of an invasion and ouster of Saddam's regime. What scares the shit out of me is that it was create a huge, huge wound in world affairs that we will have to keep band-aiding for probably another century, another HUNDRED YEARS of being responsible to the last detail for a fractious country that we have wrecked. The worst-case scenarios for this adventure are as bad as bad gets. cf the "Iraq: the 51st State" piece that ran in the Atlantic a couple months ago.

g.cannon (gcannon), Thursday, 30 January 2003 15:29 (twenty-three years ago)

I think that given my government's past support for Saddam while he was already doing monstrous things, and given that it helped solidify his power, it owes the Iraqi people special consideration. But instead, they have had to suffer the cost of sanctions which has been quite serious and, of course, under-reported in the U.S. Now we are talking about a massive bombing campaign again. I don't think the supposed threat from Saddam is big enough to justify creating this much suffering and havoc, not to mention the long term instability likely to result from this war.

(As an aside, I can't imagine any Christian account of "just war" which would sanction the sort of targeting of infrastructure which occurred last time around and is planned for this time around. I just received a forwarded e-mail from a distant relative, a first person account of someone who met Bush. It goes on to say how wonderful it is to have a confessing Christian president. Nauseating.)

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 15:39 (twenty-three years ago)

I have read in several places that the WWII stratigic bombing campaign on Germany did not do much to stop war production or bring fear to the Germans, and was basically a collosal waste of resources. Then again, atom bomb or not, the Japanese were brought to such a miserable condition by bombing and war shortages that
they surrended w/o an invasion.

Of course, its obvious that bombing the Vietnamese back to the stone age didn't deter them.

The Serbs gave up pretty quickly in the Balkan war after the bombing started, but how much this had to due with the bombing vs. other factors is impossible to say. Which is the whole problem of finding cause->effect in something as complex as a country.

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 15:52 (twenty-three years ago)

Its just naive to think that the effect of the bombing on Germans was any different to the affect of bombing on the british. In the British WW2 mythology the bombing did nothing but stiffen resolve.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 30 January 2003 15:58 (twenty-three years ago)

Suggesting watching 'Black Hawk Down' = grounds for war.

Andrew L (Andrew L), Thursday, 30 January 2003 16:41 (twenty-three years ago)

i don't know how so many of you can talk so glibly about this situation. this is the most cowardly, selfish and evil manouver the u.s. government has ever, even threatened to undertake. there is just so much wrong with this, both logisticly and morally. i hope when it's done all you american posters feel all that much more safer. i won't.

dyson (dyson), Thursday, 30 January 2003 16:43 (twenty-three years ago)

Why is ridding the world of backward-thinking islamist terrorist culture cowardly and evil? Who is it selfish against?

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:06 (twenty-three years ago)

The less you assume we 'American' posters are all thinking and acting the same way, dyson, the more we all might be able to collectively achieve.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:10 (twenty-three years ago)

what i meant by that, is these actions taken by bush are certainly aren't going to make things any safer for american citizens. the u.s. will have alot more poeple pissed at them when all is said and done, and that will obviously not help the terroroism thing.

dyson (dyson), Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:16 (twenty-three years ago)

not only american citizens but all poeple from the western world.

dyson (dyson), Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:21 (twenty-three years ago)

i hope when it's done all you american posters feel all that much more safer.
Why do you say this, dyson? I don't think anyone here thinks that. Or do they?

Sarah McLUsky (coco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:21 (twenty-three years ago)

Depends on what you mean by "it" or when you consider it done. Overthrowing Saddam alone will not fix the world or stop terrorism. No one believes or proclaims that it will, but it is a step towards that goal.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:28 (twenty-three years ago)

can we please seperate Iraq ans Islam? Hussein has no fundamentalist agenda. He is simply a dictator. The connection between Islamic terrorism and Iraw is tenuous, so if we are going to justify war against Iraq, lets deal with facts.
also, Stuart, do you want all countries with fundamentalist or Islamic regimes to be toppled? are you suggesting that we overthrow the leaders of Iran, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, etc.? I am just asking, with no opinion attached. If you believe America should so this, I would like to hear more.

Aaron Grossman (aajjgg), Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:31 (twenty-three years ago)

Why is ridding the world of backward-thinking islamist terrorist culture cowardly and evil? Who is it selfish against?

Is this supposed to be a description of Iraqi culture?

The connection between the Iraqi government and Al Qaeda is tenuous at best. The potential threat to the U.S. from weapons which Iraq might have is also minimal. As far as I know, the only neighboring state which feels threatened is Israel, and its security isn't a high priority for me personally. (In any case, it has the power to destroy Iraq if Iraq were to launch a serious attack against it.)

The CIA has said that attacking Iraq will probably result in increased terrorism directed against the U.S.

The Gulf War of 1991 and the sanctions in place since then have resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of Iraq lives. The country is already in a weakened condition. Another war against Iraq will most likely result (directly and indirectly) in hundreds and thousands of more lost lives.

*

Aaron G., thanks for pointing out the non-Islamist nature of Saddam's regime.

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:34 (twenty-three years ago)

why isn't it selfish? do you think the u.s. wants to help the iraqi people? ofcourse not. do you think the u.s. wants to help iraq's neighbouring nations? no way. do you think the u.s. wants to make an example of a weak nation that they just plain old don't like? do you think the u.s. would like one less problem in opec? do you think the u.s. wants to boost it's economy? tell me stuart; who is the u.s. doing this for, if not themselves. it doesn't neccessarily make sense to me the the states would want to do this, but there wasn't exactly alot of public outrage against saddam before this started.

and by "it" i mean action against iraq, successful or not. and it is not a step towards any kind of goal to promote peace or end terrorism, it is a step in the wrong direction all together.

dyson (dyson), Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:36 (twenty-three years ago)

NO, we cannot separate Iraq and Islam. Maybe if Saudi Arabia and Iraq didn't happen to share a 500 mile border we could, but unfortunately that is not the case.

I think theocracy in any form is fundamentally dangerous to freedom, safety, and progress. This doesn't mean we necessarily start wars with them all, at the same time or individually.

We're going to help the Iraqi people, just like we've been helping the Afghan people, just like we've been helping the people of North Korea. UNFORTUNATELY their goddamn governments keep getting in the way. How do you expect the US to do *anything* out of pure altruism while there's well-funded terrorist organizations out there trying to fly our own planes into our own buildings and completely destroy us all?

You act like the fact that there's anything in it for us should prevent us from doing anything. Of course the United States government is acting in the interests of the United States. That's it's job.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:56 (twenty-three years ago)

NO, we cannot separate Iraq and Islam.

I think the Iraqi Jews and Christians might have something to say about that.

We're going to help the Iraqi people, just like we've been helping the Afghan people, just like we've been helping the people of North Korea. UNFORTUNATELY their goddamn governments keep getting in the way.

Comedy of the highest order and the blackest heart.

If I could believe that the US government was *really* trying to 'help' these people by getting rid of horrible governments -- and not just those but *every* one out there -- in the name of the greater good, I would. But I can't, because that is so depressingly and clearly not the case.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 January 2003 17:58 (twenty-three years ago)

We're going to help the Iraqi people, just like we've been helping the Afghan people, just like we've been helping the people of North Korea. UNFORTUNATELY their goddamn governments keep getting in the way.

Say, anyone remember A.O. Neville?

Sean Carruthers (SeanC), Thursday, 30 January 2003 18:02 (twenty-three years ago)

Stuart, many of those goddam governments were put into place with, and sustained by, U.S. backing. If they are no longer useful to the U.S., then it's time for a regime change (and if the people of those countries are the ones to pay for it, oh well).

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 18:12 (twenty-three years ago)

TS: US Democracy vs. Ba'athist Regime vs. Taliban vs. Authoritarian Socialist Dictatorship

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 18:13 (twenty-three years ago)

Besides feeling guilty, what do you suggest we do about it?

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 18:19 (twenty-three years ago)

I do like the old Ba'athist party slogan: Arab oil for the Arabs.

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 18:35 (twenty-three years ago)

Good one, anyway...

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 19:07 (twenty-three years ago)

>Besides feeling guilty, what do you suggest we do about it?

In many situations, all you have are bad choices, and you must choose what you think is the least worst.

You can't force democracy down the throats of people who have no history of democracy. Democracies require certain conditons to function properly, like an educated populace that values democratic ideas and some centralized authority powerful enough to enforce the democracy. It took Europe hundreds of years to reach the point where democracy blossomed, and we somehow expect the people of Afghanistan to achieve a working democracy in a few years. Its not going to happen. Countries have to evolve naturally into democracies. Iran, for example, is working its way, slowly but surely, towards some kind of democratic government. Of course Bush isn't helping by calling them evil.

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 19:36 (twenty-three years ago)

Japan seems to be doing ok.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 19:45 (twenty-three years ago)

I almost want to suggest a moratorium on arguments that run "why don't we invade X, then," in that -- sensible or not -- they don't really do anything to impugn the argument that it could be a good idea to force regime change in Iraq; the reductio absurdum is not a very good way of proving hypocrisy. A lot of posters here have also done a pretty poor job of countering or even really acknowledging the argument that it's a service to the population of Iraq to get rid of Saddam; I'm surprised to see that fletrejet (no offense) is one of few people advancing any coherent argument as to why, precisely, such a change wouldn't be a long-term benefit. (I don't entirely agree with his argument, but it's close to my problem with the whole thing, which is essentially the issue of post-Hussein logistics, all of which remain undiscussed.)

Also note that this idea of a century of shepherding a fractious mess we've created: please note that that's precisely what we're doing now, and have been doing since the fall of the Ottoman Empire created this ridiculous unnatural jumble of badly-chosen borders we call the mid-East.

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 20:02 (twenty-three years ago)

We could solve a great deal of problems in the middle east by leaning hard on Israel to end its apartheid regime and come to an accommodation with the palestinian majority. Israel/Palestine should be a unified secular democracy. Failing that Two states need to be created and I think they should run along the 1948 partition lines with Jerusalem as a jointly administered province (something along the lines of Northern Ireland).

Ed (dali), Thursday, 30 January 2003 20:09 (twenty-three years ago)

If we're going to start enforcing UN resolutions we have to start with Israel.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 30 January 2003 20:10 (twenty-three years ago)

As I see it, securing post-Saddam Iraq and building a liberal democracy there is the whole point. If we don't put a tremendous amount of effort into that then I don't have any idea what's going on.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 20:10 (twenty-three years ago)

Prepare yourself for a hard fall, I'm thinking.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 30 January 2003 20:27 (twenty-three years ago)

>Japan seems to be doing ok.

At the begining of WWII, Japan was a mono-ethnic, well eductated (for its time), industrialized society w/ a strong central authority. The only thing lacking was a history of democratic thought, but all the seeds for a democratic revolution were there. Plus we spent a huge amount of time and money rebuilding Japan.

Now, contrast this with Afghanistan, which is a multi-ethnic, poorly educated country that existed in quasi-anarchy through most of its history.

Iraq in the 70s and 80s had a fairly well educated population with a decent standard of living, but after years of crippling sanctions and the posssible devastation of an american invansion, the democracy in Iraq is looking very unlikely. Not to mention the ethnic tensions w/ the shi'ite and kurds which would really drag down the process.

fletrejet, Thursday, 30 January 2003 20:56 (twenty-three years ago)

yes japan has done great with democracy. Iraq may do weill too, i just don't believe we will actually set up a truly democratic regime there. If it was truly democratic it would not be pro-US. Also, lok at central america. Have any of the regimes we have backed (pr indeed, set up) been truly democratic? Not any. SO i am highly suspicious when rumsfeld et al say they want democracy in Iraq.

g (graysonlane), Thursday, 30 January 2003 21:26 (twenty-three years ago)

'If it was truly democratic it would not be pro-US'

Absolutely certain of that tho?

dave q, Thursday, 30 January 2003 21:29 (twenty-three years ago)

dave q, It would be surprising after what we have done to Iraq, and in the Middle East generally.

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 21:32 (twenty-three years ago)

Sanctions didn't start until Iraq had been at war for 11 years. The 375,000 people who died in Iraq during the war with Iran probably didn't consider their standard of living very decent, either.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 21:33 (twenty-three years ago)

Stuart, are you saying that things have not been worse in Iraq since we screwed up their infrastructure and imposed sanctions? Statistics from UNICEF and the like don't back up that view.

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 21:37 (twenty-three years ago)

And by the way, nabisco, if you think a certain type of argument needs to be made, why don't you make it, rather than rebuking us from the side-lines for not doing so?

Rockist Scientist, Thursday, 30 January 2003 21:39 (twenty-three years ago)

Rockist, "my" argument was that some of the ones made here don't really address the issues they claim to. This thread didn't start with a question, so I'm not sure what else to say apart from what I've said on most threads with this topic: my primary problem with this whole endeavor is that no one anywhere has yet offered even the barest hint at what a post-Saddam Iraq might look like, how its tribal and political factions would be organized into a government, how (or even whether!) its happily autonomous Kurds would be reincorporated into the whole, how its southern minority ditto, and so on and so on. For some of the reasons Fletrejet mentions I don't think it's self-evident that any non-Saddam governance will inherently be an improvement on the situation, neither in terms of Iraqi welfare or even the Western stability and safety we're supposedly ensuring. I don't like the idea of just rolling the dice and going into an unprovoked war for a result that even if we're massively successful isn't in the least guaranteed to be a positive one; I'm willing to take the administration's freedom rhetoric at face value but do not actually trust it as the de facto administrator of an entire nation (I preferred for it not to be in power here!); and no one, anywhere, at any stage, has done the slightest thing to allay such concerns among those who might have them.

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 21:51 (twenty-three years ago)

First, WE didn't screw up their infrastructure. Second, life in Iraq was not fabulous after a decade of war with Iran. Third, Saddam REJECTED the oil for food program for five years.

It's Saddam's fault, not ours:

http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/iraq/iraq99b.htm

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 21:57 (twenty-three years ago)

Stuart you're applying very odd standards of cause and effect: if we did not damage their infrastructure and use sanctions to stifle the nation's economy then we are a terrifically ineffective nation that wasted a great deal of effort and ammunition. Both of these things were explicitly goals, goals designed to weaken Hussein's regime; the only way you can say "we didn't do it" would be if you were arguing that we tried and failed.

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 22:02 (twenty-three years ago)

In other words, this is in part the point of sanctions: to weaken infrastructure, to deprive citizens, to weaken government, to lay seige and make people slightly more miserable than they might otherwise have been.

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 22:04 (twenty-three years ago)

I'm not arguing that sanctions had no effect, I'm arguing as to what effect they had. UN sanctions are not the reason that infant mortality rates have risen in Saddam-controlled Iraq, or that the standard of living has decreased. Saddam is responsible because he tries to hide behind sanctions and uses that as a political tool to starve his own people and keep himself in power. On the other hand, UN sanctions have kept Saddam from rebuilding his army.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 22:17 (twenty-three years ago)

If you want to lay siege to someone, it is not a good idea to sell him five billion dollars worth of humanitarian supplies.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 22:19 (twenty-three years ago)

Sorry, Stuart, but you're flailing in two different directions at once. Humanitarian aid is sent specifically to offset the negative effects of sanctions; if sanctions really had no negative effect on a given population there would be no purpose to sending it. They're meant to keep the seige from affecting the uninvolved citizen too drastically, and they're supplied because the seige effect is the explicit aim of sanctions in the first place: you can't have this both ways.

Secondly if you look into the actual regulation of material moving into and out of Iraq, you'll find that it's been handled with ridiculous disregard to actual effect and an even more ridiculous devotion to bureacracy: entirely harmless and specifically humanitarian goods have been blocked from entry while a multi-nation UN panel hems and haws over them for no specific reason. Any nation on the panel can veto the delivery of any item to Iraq on whim, and this is precisely what they've done, even with things like medical supplies.

It's one thing to claim that Iraq would have been in a bad position either way -- this is entirely true -- but it's silly to pretend that sanctions do not have a negative effect on a populous: that's the entire point of sanctions. Are you really arguing that we devoted years of effort to sanctions that had a negligible military effect but gave Saddam an ideal excuse for his own misadministration? (If so, wouldn't that simply be a case of actively abeting the continuing ruin of that nation?) And if sanctions were not harmful to the Iraqi public but kept Saddam from rearming, weren't they in effect "successful," thus raising the question of why we're abandoning them as an avenue?

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 22:39 (twenty-three years ago)

Moreover, how does either argument -- that we contributed to the ruin of Iraq as a functioning state, or that we didn't affect it at all -- make much difference in terms of current questions?

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 22:43 (twenty-three years ago)

not only american citizens but all poeple from the western world.

all people from the western world = Russia, China, France & Germany?

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 22:54 (twenty-three years ago)

dave q, It would be surprising after what we have done to Iraq, and in the Middle East generally

in the Middle East generally = Vietnam, Japan?

Unless you're talking about buying oil and selling arms.

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 22:58 (twenty-three years ago)

The Iraqi people would be better off under the sanctions if Saddam disarmed as promised and distributed the supplies he controls with the welfare of the Iraqi people as his primary motivation. This has not been the case. That is my point. Whether you consider humanitarian supplies to be exemption under the sanctions (as i see it) or as a counterbalance to them (as you see it), the net effect is nobody has to starve but Saddam is making them. Sanctions are not responsible for the suffering of the Iraqi people, Saddam is.

Sanctions have kept Saddam from rebuilding a substantial military, but they cannot keep him from developing weapons of mass destruction because they are not perfect and cannot absolutely contain or control the system. Things get smuggled in. Sanctions and inspections cannot work as long as Saddam resists them. They aren't supposed to. He agreed to them but has never cooperated sufficiently.

the point is we've tried everything but the fucker won't keep his promises. He's dangerous and untrustworthy and he's holding up the war on terrorism so he has to go.

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:00 (twenty-three years ago)

I think that a significant proportion of Iraqis are going to take umbrage with their country being invaded, just as happened and is still happening in Afghanistan.

This time they will hate America because we plan to actually kill the tyrant and stay for a while?

And like Afghanistan they will display this anger by, er, opening record shops?

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:01 (twenty-three years ago)

I don't mean to start a tangent, but I just wanted to share this with you all - whatever your stance, since anyone interested in Iraq ought to see this first. Have a look before it's gone, just like its predecessor. Okay, back to arguing....

Kerry (dymaxia), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:03 (twenty-three years ago)

Never mind my post 5 above, I misread Dyson's argument

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:04 (twenty-three years ago)

By trying to assassinate Hamid Karzai.

Afghanistan is the perfect example of what 180 years of non colonial Western Meddling can do to a country. The British, Russians, Soviets and Americans all have culpability. I don't doubt Afghanistan will eventually sort itself out, I reckon eventually it will end up in the same uneasy state as Iran. An democracy, Islamic in character, but held back by a fundamentalist claque at the centre. At the moment though Afghanistan is still in the same mess as it was in '89 or '99. the government barely has control over kabul and the rest of the country is lawless under the control of disparate warlords.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:36 (twenty-three years ago)

Hardly a great victory.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:36 (twenty-three years ago)

that was only 14 months ago for crying out loud...

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:43 (twenty-three years ago)

But the war is considered to be over yet control over the country is far from being established. It's a half arsed job.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:48 (twenty-three years ago)

Duh Stuart. Democracy happens immediately in a natural setting. But you wouldn't know that because you've grown up in a world where white people are always putting their fingers in everything. I mean if it hadn't been for the US involvement the Taliban was just weeks away from electing a woman president.

Trying to assassinate Hamid Karzai != being pissed at America

(counter-argument galloping up behind me as I type this: "not directly, but it does reflect extreme displeasure with the colonialist policies of American yada yada boop boop killing people is bad")

Millar (Millar), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:52 (twenty-three years ago)

It's not half-assed, it's just not even half-started yet. The country has been in chaos for it's entire history, you basically just said so yourself, and now you're disappointed because the coalition government hasn't established total security and control in 14 months? Are you kidding or just unreasonable?

Stuart, Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:54 (twenty-three years ago)

Stuart have you ever heard of a but-for argument? It's where you say "if not for X, we never would have had Y" or "but for Y, we never would have had Z," and then jump to either "X caused Y" or "Y caused Z." Unfortunately in many instances several different circumstances contribute to a single event: "but for" all sorts of things the event may not have taken place. You're constructing a slightly elaborate "but for Saddam" argument in order to pretend that UN sanctions are a magical, 100% effective tool, managing to influence only military buildup but not arms development nor even the people of the country. You're also buying into what's basically a "stop hitting yourself" scenario, one in which one partner gets to dictate what the other is "bringing upon itself" -- this barely works with children (you're still the one spanking them), and I'm not certain how great of a rhetorical tool it is in foreign affairs.

You also didn't answer the second question, really: what bearing exactly does that have on the present? You offer up a pretty weak set of reasons to get rid of Saddam, really: he's a bad administrator? So are half of the leaders of half of the governments in the entire world; you want to see people mismanage resources even apart from sanctions and plenty of African nations will provide you with a show for the ages. He's "holding up the war on terrorism" -- in what way, particularly given that it's a "war" in which he's never pledged to be an ally and can't particularly be demonstrated to have been very notable an enemy? Sanctions can't stop him from developing weapons of mass destruction? When was this decided? At that convenient point where we were getting started toppling regimes anyway?

All of which still doesn't address the actual problem I have with your game plan, which remains: what happens after Saddam? Until someone can answer this question making specific reference to various religious and ethnic minorities, the chances of cooperation between various opposition factions, and the burning question of what's looking a lot like Kurdistan, I don't think I can listen to him or her talk about how Saddam needs to go. (Unless you think a runaway car steers itself better than a bad driver.)

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:57 (twenty-three years ago)

Also Stuart Afghanistan is demonstrably worse now than it was before the Russians came in; it was worse than that under the Taliban after, but I think Ed's point is that the great shining hope of U.S. liberation has basically turned out to be not a magic bullet but the same grueling uphill democracy-work as before -- and to all appearances it's not work that we're particularly willing to see through.

nabisco (nabisco), Thursday, 30 January 2003 23:59 (twenty-three years ago)

Sanctions have been effective against some things and not others. There is no magic involved. You cannot sneak enough spare parts and new equipment into Iraq to build an effective fighting force. It's too much stuff and it's too big and you just can't do it. On the other hand, if you were never completely disarmed to begin with, and the extent of your WMD programs was never fully established, then it could be possible to sneak enough supplies in to continue those programs.

Next: I'm arguing on and on about sanctions because many anti-war people seem to like arguing that "first we starved their babies, now we want to bomb them with 800 cruise missiles". Neither of which is true. *The United States is not responsible for Saddam refusing to feed his own people with food we've sold him*.

As far as "stop hitting yourself" goes, he lost the war, he agreed to the terms, he refuses to abide by them. He's basically resisting arrest, which is not a valid reason to take the cuffs off.

He's holding up the war on terrorism because you're going to liberate the Arabs and bring them into the 21st century then Iraq is the place to start.

Sanctions weren't supposed to stop him from developing weapons of mass destruction. Weapons Inspectors were. He was supposed to disarm in front of them and show them where he'd been hiding everything - this is what he agreed to do - and he hasn't done any of it. Their job was never to find the weapons like a big easter egg hunt and disarm iraq all by themselves, they were just supposed to verify that Saddam was doing this. He never has, never did, never cooperated, always lied, always hid, always diverted, and always continued with his WMD programs as hard has he could.

It was decided that we were getting really tired of fucking with him on the morning of Sept 11th.

What happens after Saddam: Military Government. We administrate the reform of Iraq into a free capitalist liberal democracy over a number of decades, funnelling oil revenues into rebuilding infrastructure and all that good stuff. Do you want step by step instructions? I don't have them, it's not what I do, but that's the idea. Nobody's talking about it because if Bush came out and said "we're gonna set up this government that's gonna be free and successful and none of this state-run media and no brainwashing" then the Sauds and the mullahs - who are at the heart of terrorism and irrational hatred of the west as a scapegoat for their own failings - start looking around and getting antsy.

There are no magic bullets, there never will be. This isn't a point worth arguing. We're still in Afghanistan, we're still training a coalition afghan defense force, we're still sending hundreds of millions of dollars in food and humanitarian aid there every year. What do you want?

Stuart, Friday, 31 January 2003 00:27 (twenty-three years ago)

>The country has been in chaos for it's entire history, you basically
> just said so yourself, and now you're disappointed because the
> coalition government hasn't established total security and control in
> 14 months?

The Taliban, given time, might have unified the country in a coherent central government. This is a first step to democracy. Unfortunately, it directly supported terrorism, so it had to go. This set back Afghastinan for decades. If we wanted democracy faster in Afghanistan, we should never have invaded Afghanistan, but like I said, that was not an option for the US.

All the US can do there now is prop up some puppet ruler and pray he holds power, or basically make afghanistan the 51st state, give it a military governor, invest massive amounts of money in infrastructure, etc etc, and even then it would takes years before anything good came from it. I am not surprised which choice the US made.

fletrejet, Friday, 31 January 2003 00:48 (twenty-three years ago)

Excuse my while I laugh my ass off.

Stuart, Friday, 31 January 2003 00:49 (twenty-three years ago)

Fletrejet just won the argument, we can all go home now.

Millar (Millar), Friday, 31 January 2003 00:52 (twenty-three years ago)

the Sauds and the mullahs - who are at the heart of terrorism and irrational hatred of the west

don't fly off the hadle here and dare think for a second that I am justifying terrorism, stuart - but, they do have a few reasons for not having the u.s. on their christmas card list.

dyson (dyson), Friday, 31 January 2003 03:09 (twenty-three years ago)

With all the bad things the US has done around the world - whether out of arrogance or choosing the lesser evil or "fighting the cold war" or whatever - the Islamists are the only ones mad enough to fly planes into buildings and blow themselves up in pizzarias and discos. There's more to it that the US doing them wrong. It's the government and the theocrats and the state-run media and the subjugation of women and the regressive Qutbbian Age-of-the-Prophet mumbo-jumbo. And I don't think any of it goes as deep as the Arab diplomats with their "You'll Anger the Arab Street" threats would like us to believe.

Stuart, Friday, 31 January 2003 03:39 (twenty-three years ago)

why do you think they use those tools Stuart? desperation and powerlessness always leads to the worst types of warfare imaginable; we don't have to do those things because we have fucking big ships and planes and an extremely well-trained and well-supported military apparatus that spans the frickin globe. Stuart I think many of your points are totally on-target, and you have an optimism about the American role in this that is sort of refreshing. But I think by arguing so hard for the Administration - you are basically making its case, point by point - it sounds like you're not considering whether the objections to an invasion have any validity. I want to remind you that virtually every other example of a "free capitalist liberal democracy" extant in the world today opposes this war. True, some of them have cynical reasons - everybody has their own moral triage to deal with - but what do you think about that? Because the way you spell it out it seems like this really obviously Good Thing that we use the U.S. military to take out Saddam - what aren't the other democracies seeing?

(btw I'd just like to say Tom M - I don't always agree with you - in fact, rarely on issues like this - but you're understandably really pragmatic about this stuff, which I think is really helpful for thinking about it).

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Friday, 31 January 2003 03:47 (twenty-three years ago)

My hope is that what the other democracies aren't seeing is the evidence that Powell is going to reveal on the 5th. If that falls through, and there are no damning revelations, or they stay "too sensitive" for too long, then I'm going to feel very disappointed, and confused, and to some extent betrayed.

Stuart, Friday, 31 January 2003 03:56 (twenty-three years ago)

I'm with ya there! time for the Daily Show, see all you guys later.... do you think i can post to ILX during my sleep?)

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Friday, 31 January 2003 03:59 (twenty-three years ago)

I hope Powell pulls out all the stops too. I think he will.

I have to admire Stuart for arguing so strongly on these points without really knowing how things will turn out - I'm clued in on things so I'm actually grounded in fact, even if I can't tell you guys any of it.

Stuart -props!

Millar (Millar), Friday, 31 January 2003 04:23 (twenty-three years ago)

What I was saying up thread is that Afghanistan was presented to us as this quick simple victory, which is just not true. US forces are still fighting in South East Afghanistan, 18 civilians killed last night by rebel 'former Taliban'. Yet the argument for going to war in Iraq seems to be 'well we did so well in afghanistan lets go sort out Iraq'.

Quite frankly we need to just stop meddling, just trying to impose our values on people. Iran and Turkey stand up as shining examples of what happens in muslim nations if you more or less just leave them be. Neither is perfect but are our own democracies that perfect: Bush got voted in on fewer votes than Gore; Blair has power way surpassing his mandates; I could provide more examples but thats just the way our electoral systems work.

We need to stop seeing the middle east as a series of problems that need solving and we should stop seeing it as a game of geopolitics. It is about people. People who we have aided in the oppression of betrayed and abused over the 80 odd years since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Balfour, Sikes-Picot we are still reviled for these acts and they happened during the first world war. We imposed the borders, the monarchy's to satisfy western geopolitical needs. Sphere's of influence, zones of control we need to abandon these and start treating the people of the middle east as people and quite frankly we should let them sort it out for themselves. We should decline to support oppressive undemocratic regimes and help those that are making the transition to democracy. Furthermore if we wish to achieve this we have to reduce western dependence on crude oil and thus on this unstable region.

The one caveat is that we must apply pressure on Israel to dismantle its apartheid regime. Israel is the creation of the guilt of the west and its form comes from the collapse of British interest through exhaustion in this strip of eastern Mediterranean desert. We will have to take on Israel as we took on South Africa and hopefully a leader of the stature of Mandela or Sislu will emerge over time. Many of founders of Israel never envisaged a state where the muslims were driven out, some did and their army and terrorists that drove out the Palestinians. Many of Israel's problems stem from the fact that Britain just gave upand left rather than oversaw a peaceful transition. Just as they had in India and Ireland before they saw partition as the solution rather than something to be avoided.

(That was rather an aside)

I do believe that we cannot impartially intervene militarily in the middle east so we should just leave it and try and provoke learning, liberal values and assist in any way we can.

Ed (dali), Friday, 31 January 2003 09:47 (twenty-three years ago)

Uh...I obviously have less political knowledge than others here, and this may have been answered above, but why does Stuart insist on relating Saddam Hussein/Iraq to Sept. 11th bombings/Al Qaeda? I.e., saying Dubya got sick of Hussein after 9-11. Seemed more to me like Bush was all set to go after Hussein pre-9-11, and the Al Qaeda thing was a momentary distraction to his ultimate focus (as witnessed by half-assed efforts there). What is the relationship you're trying to tie here, Stuart? I heard some jackass radio commentator doing the same thing yesterday, and it just infuriates me.

Nick A. (Nick A.), Friday, 31 January 2003 17:34 (twenty-three years ago)

>Uh...I obviously have less political knowledge than others here, and
> this may have been answered above, but why does Stuart insist on
> relating Saddam Hussein/Iraq to Sept. 11th bombings/Al Qaeda?

Because Stuart trusts the Bush regime, and the Bush regime says it has evidence of a connection. It has refused to reveal this evidence until this week when it announced it would be revealed next week, so we'll see. But until then, the Bush regime has done pretty much everything it could to earn the distrust of its people. A recent poll found that about 50% of Americans trust the UN more than Dubya concernign Iraq, which is quite pathetic for a president trying to lead a country into war.

fletrejet, Friday, 31 January 2003 18:00 (twenty-three years ago)

didn't bush and blair have some wonderful evidence they were going to wow us all with months ago; they built up to the day of the anouncement and all they basicly did was reapeat all the things they'd already stated? i'm kinda sceptical of whater evidence powell has coming up.

and ed, you've just stated everything i wanted to but was too lazy to type. keep on rockin in the free world!

dyson (dyson), Friday, 31 January 2003 18:59 (twenty-three years ago)

(1) Stuart, are you really proposing that the nation of Iraq become a militarized commonwealth of the United States until such time as we feel they're ready to be a functioning democracy? Not only does this sound oddly like a Cold War Soviet proposition, but it's also a much more massive undertaking than you're pretending. This protectorate scenario is something no one -- not our government nor anyone else's -- really wants to see happen or really wants to do: no matter how essential it is, it's awfully difficult to succeed at a long-term administrative task that no one wants to be doing in the first place (cf almost everything ever since the tail end of colonialism). At least you're consistent about not caring about "the Arab street" -- do you give any weight whatsoever that the idea of U.S. occupation of Arab nations is exactly what Islamist elements fear and hate most about this country? Or the fact that each time it happens, it becomes less and less possible to describe their propaganda as, well, propaganda?

(b) With sanctions, your focussing of blame on Saddam only underscores the point the million-Iraq-babies brigade have been trying to make for the past however many years: that our approach to Saddam was part and parcel of the deterioration of the quality of life of the average non-Kurd non-Shiite Iraqi citizen, and to no great apparent benefit to anyone just yet. Saying, basically, that Saddam "started it" and could end if if he wanted do did not in fact help those citizens; likewise, the argument being made against bombing is that, provoked by Saddam or not, the U.S. will have participated in the destructions of the environment of Iraq in several of its own ways, and that we should be massively sure that the payoff is worth it before we get started. This is not a bizarre argument to make: it's a simple balancing of gains versus loss of life and resources to innocent bystanders, and those on about the babies just happen to have a difference take on that balance than you apparently do.

(c) Beyond all of that your rhetoric is exactly what frightens people not about this particular situation but the general posture the U.S. has adopted within it. You speak as if it's the Bush administration's particular role on Earth to make, enforce, and administer whatever course of action it deems beneficial to anyone, in any nation, anywhere, based on some invisible moral authority that supercedes the wishes of the majority of U.S. citizens and the majority of people around the world. This is, quite simply put, fucking scary: whether it works out okay this time or not, it's disturbing to see a small cadre of men -- many of them previously responsible for abeting atrocities as bad as Saddam's, if not worse -- making such decisions, weilding the world's most powerful military, and explicitly without responsibility to anyone else at all, not even their own citizens. Your rhetoric is almost worse: note, for instance, how massively you expanded "war on terrorism" to mean not a fight against actual terrorists but a crusade to bring secular capitalist democracies to the entire Muslim world (all your words). The question at this point becomes not whether any given U.S. action is a good idea, but rather what gives this particular group of men the authority to make such decisions themselves.

(d) By the way, that's a giant cop-out on the issue of suitable replacements for the old regime: "we'll just annex them," you're basically saying, "and I'm sure something will work out." Leaving alone what a horrible long-term idea that is even for our personal freedom-from-terrorism purposes, it ignores every substantive question raised by ousting Saddam (e.g. a nascent Kurdistan?).

nabisco (nabisco), Friday, 31 January 2003 21:20 (twenty-three years ago)

1) I'm proposing that we occupy it for a number of years and reform it following a model based in part on Japan. Japan had been thoroughly devastated in the war, and had no valuable resources. Iraq has not been firebombed and nuked, and I don't expect it to be, and it has lots of oil. Islamists hate a lot of things about this country. How about we stop letting the mullahs brainwash a hostage populace (all across the middle east) into new recruits?

b) Saying Saddam started it and could finish it if he wanted to is the truth, whether it helps anybody or not. We've established the protocol and the infrastructure, and he won't let us feed his people. He's decided to hold his own people hostage to our sense of morality, but it's not going to work. Now what's this about destroying the environment of Iraq?

c) Sixteen months ago the terrorists declared open war on the West. For a long time, there was terrorism but compared to 9/11 it was low-level stuff and it occurred far from home. Now it's war, it's big, it's at home, and we're fighting to win. We didn't jump into WW2 until Pearl Harbor. We've been fighting terrorism for decades but we didn't jump in until 9/11. It is not the case that the Bush administration has all of a sudden decided to take over (much less *start*) the fight and do whatever it wants anywhere on earth. Those directly involved in fighting terrorism and Islamist militants pre-9/11 either weren't winning or they've been complicit all along in its continuation. We ain't having it. All your "small cadre of men… without responsibility to anyone" is paranoid. Roosevelt and Churchill and Stalin seemed to pull off World War II all right. Bush hasn't rounded up all the Muslims. He hasn't suspended elections or executed ANSWER activists. And shit we don't even have a Stalin this time around. I agree that the situation is scary and unpredictable and there are no absolute certain easy answer guarantees, but that's not new, and there's no use hiding from it and pretending it will go away.

d) Sorry I haven't gotten around to writing the new Iraqi constitution yet. What do you want? What is your point? Iraqis won't get along so we might as well give up? They're not broken. They're not inferior. They're human beings. They can learn.

Stuart, Friday, 31 January 2003 23:59 (twenty-three years ago)

Stuart, you propose that "we" (which I assume refers to the U.S., but I am not certain if other nations are also included, so please correct me if I am wrong) occupy Iraq for a number of years, following an invasion and disposition of Saddam's regime and his followers, based on the model developed for rebuiling Japan post World War II. I do agree that if we (the U.S.) do end-up invading and removing Saddam from power, then we have a moral and ethical obligation to stay and contribute funds and goods and education in order to assist the country in re-building and developing a modern identity. However, I do not know that the U.S. is the best group of people for carrying-out such a program. I think it is likely that the Americans (and/or other westerners) would be viewed negatively and many people would resent the American presence.

I would propose that the U.S. and Western countries provide the funds and so forth, but that the actual restructering (spelling?) be put into the hands of a coalition of Middle Eastern countries, most notably Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia - that is, the more western-friendly nations, who would likely be willing to work with the U.N. in the rebuilding process, thereby increasing the odds that long-term Iraq will emerge as a democracy, or at least not led by a dictator or an intollerant religious group or tribal leaders. (Wow, sorry for the length of that sentence.)

I can easily see how the people of the Middle East, regardless of religious orientation or country of citizenship, would view a move by the U.S. and Britain against one of their neighbors in a negative manner. And many, especially the extremists (and not just the Islamic extremists - other religious groups have their fringe believers, too), will see such a move as another reason to move against the West. But if it is possible to have the situation either ended by Middle Easterners or at least dampered a bit by their support and willingness to help in the rebuilding efforts, then I think that the long-term prospects for the country look brighter than if the U.S. stays and dictates the behavior of people from a very different (and in some cases, very difficult to comprehend) culture.

I'm Passing Open Windows (Ms Laura), Saturday, 1 February 2003 01:10 (twenty-three years ago)

How the hell is Iraq linked to Islamic Terrorism. Yes Iraq has supported terrorists, but secular Palestinian Terrorists. Saddam is the very thing islamic terrorists despise, a secular fascist it would take a huge leap in the imaginations of very paranoid men to come to some kind of agreement.

What's more the best way of fighting Islamic terro is by trying to find some kind of understanding between out two cultures and by helping the oppressed people of the muslim world to throw off their shackles. Is it any coincidence that the most developed muslim nations have the lowest numbers of extremists.

No way should the restructuring be left to Iraqs neighbors, these a the key problem in the region, corrupt monarchies that prop themselves up by placating extreme forms of islam by giving them control over religions affairs, (the Wahabis in Saudi Arabia for starters). Saudi Arabia is even named after the ruling family. Rebuilding Iraq should be firmly in the hands of iraqis

Ed (dali), Saturday, 1 February 2003 11:44 (twenty-three years ago)

Helping the oppressed people of the middle east throw off their shackles by showing them the example of what a free and democratic Iraq is capable of is exactly what I'm proposing.

Stuart, Monday, 3 February 2003 17:09 (twenty-three years ago)

Stuart, you're saying 9-11 is what finally "pushed us over the edge" into starting military efforts against Iraq, but you have yet to say how you think 9-11 and Saddam Hussein are connected. To suggest so seems disingenuous and paranoid.

Nick A. (Nick A.), Monday, 3 February 2003 17:20 (twenty-three years ago)

Hey Stuart - how about Haiti? We have far more responsibility for the oppression they're suffering. Their leaders are corrupt and they conspire to keep natural resources away from their own people. Anyway, sound good? We can go in with like 400 missiles or so?

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Monday, 3 February 2003 17:28 (twenty-three years ago)

No, 9/11 pushed us into the war on Islamist Terrorism. Islamist Terrorism is rooted in the illegitimate governments of the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia. Saddam Hussein stands in the way of reforming those governments, and he refuses to honor his agreements and disarm. He is a threat to stability in the region, and the obvious first target for regime change.

How about we get to Haiti after the people who blow themselves up to kill us are out of the way?

Stuart, Monday, 3 February 2003 17:33 (twenty-three years ago)

Blimey

Dave B (daveb), Monday, 3 February 2003 17:44 (twenty-three years ago)

Stuart, quit pretending there's no information in the world apart from the bits you know: for instance, I haven't asked you to rewrite an Iraqi constitution but I did very explicitly ask you about how we might deal with the topic of an autonomous Kurdistan. (If you don't have any thoughts on this topic and a lot of others besides I don't think you're in any position to say "oh we'll just occupy then and I guarantee it'll turn out okay.")

You're also still massively distorting the truth about the sanctions system (ask Joy Gordon) and massively underestimating the potential of human beings to not like the countries occupied by foreign powers (have you forgotten that one of the biggest rhetorical goals of Islamist terrorists is to get U.S. installations out of the holy land? or that a significant portion of their hatred for the Saudi monarchy is based on the Saud family climbing in bed with the U.S. and allowing that?)

Your 9/11 history is also a little bit bullshit: you seem to forget that someone already tried to demolish the World Trade Center, a decade ago. You can't say "this time they're attacking us at home" -- the most you can say is "this time it actually worked." (Also my apologies for forgetting that World War II worked out so wonderfully for everyone: Stalin was a great guy, wasn't he.)

So in conclusion no, I do not want a new Iraqi constitution from you, but my point here has been that no one has yet demonstrated any sort of coherent plan that convinces me that a post-invasion Iraq will necessarily work to the benefit of anyone, anywhere. You're not doing that work, either: all you're saying is "we'll occupy it, it'll be fun, it'll work out just like Japan did." But Japan is a complete aberration in the history of U.S. military guidance of foreign nations -- a complete aberration -- and people here have pointed out a great number of reasons Iraq is a billion times bigger a challenge, none of which you've responded to at all.

nabisco (nabisco), Monday, 3 February 2003 18:05 (twenty-three years ago)

I mean, sorry to get snippy but this is exactly what bothers me about the Bush rhetoric: it all proceeds from the (itself not-incredibly-solid) premise that "this is just right," without ever asking whether the actual results will be any sort of improvement on the present. Both of those arguments need to be made, both the justification and some sort of indication that the action itself will work. What's bugging me about your posts, Stuart, is that you consistently toss off that second part and just say, like Bush does, "But we have to do this, nevermind the logistics." But I don't trust this administration with the logistics (how many of them have long horrible histories in Central America from three administrations ago?) -- and I don't think they particularly care, either.

And mostly, Stuart, I'm mystified that you can be so glibly confident in the ability of U.S. military occupation to make things better, when -- apart from a few isolated examples like Japan and maybe Panama and so on -- careful examination of history should assure us that there is no such guarantee, none whatsoever. If you want immediate evidence just look at the guy you're so keen on ousting: you are putting your trust in a government that at one point decided it would be a great idea to arm and support him!

nabisco (nabisco), Monday, 3 February 2003 18:12 (twenty-three years ago)

We got attacked quit a bit during the Clinton Administration... and besides a few cruise missiles nothing ever really happened, did it? Curious, huh...

I've already stated that no one has demonstrated a coherent plan for long term goals in Iraq because it would make the leadership of the rest of the region all panicky. "You Islamists hate our culture and want us out, so guess what, we're gonna slowly but surely remodel your whole world to more closely resembly ours and this is how," would not go over well in Riyadh.

Stuart, Monday, 3 February 2003 19:08 (twenty-three years ago)

Thank you Stuart, that is EXACTLY MY POINT. Part of what I'm asking you is this: if you don't think we can even talk about it without "panicking" and negatively affecting the entire region, what the hell makes you think it will be all wine and roses in practice?

nabisco (nabisco), Monday, 3 February 2003 19:45 (twenty-three years ago)

I said it would panic the leadership, not the entire populace of the region. In practice it'll be low key and not the straight up obvious declared goal. We don't have to fight the Sauds and the mullahs if we seduce the populace right out from under them by showing the Arab people what can be accomplished in a free and open society, one day and one year at a time.

Stuart, Monday, 3 February 2003 20:11 (twenty-three years ago)

by showing the Arab people

Bit hard to do that in a theocracy like Saudi Arabia clamping down on corrupting influences from the outside world, I have to note. I actually think the pressures would be even greater in (non-Arab) Iran were it not for the fact that it really is becoming an Islamic republic year by year and that Western influence is pretty well entrenched if not encouraged -- the end game of that particular religious elite to try and cling to power will be interesting indeed. But it wouldn't have been so problematic if Iran hadn't been lumped into the 'axis of etc.'

Ned Raggett (Ned), Monday, 3 February 2003 20:35 (twenty-three years ago)

I see the plan, then: contrary to all stated aims of everyone involved, we are secretly planning to date-rape the entire mid-East into secular capitalist democracy, luring them in with our sweet talk of weapons of mass destruction and justified regime change, then pouncing and occupying one nation to use as a springboard and model for the conversion of the entire region, none of which we'll actually mention until we are (figuratively) up back in their dorm room and ready to start grabbing. So the Islamists are wrong about us how, exactly? And this awfully ambitious plan of empire will be carried out by ... by the president who campaigned by saying he was completely uninterested in nation-building and didn't see it as this nation's proper role or function? By the people plotting out a course of action that's sort of the exact opposite of what you personally say is what they will actually do, because they're just secretly not saying it to avoid pissing off the Sauds, who I guess have less information and ability to interpret U.S. intentions than ... Stuart? Stuart has divined the secret game-plan of the Bush administration that they're not allowed to know? I am not entirely reassured by this. And if it magically turns out that you're right I sure hope all those Iraqi opposition groups will be content to see a U.S. protectorate emerging, instead of their being handed the reins -- though the fact that they've been unable to work in concert even when faced with the common enemy of Saddam isn't exactly promising. I hope the Kurds are happy, too -- those Kurds we always refer to when we say "Saddam gasses his own people," the same Kurds who by and large are asking us not to invade and ruin their happily autonomous northern state. For the time being I'm just going to have to remain unconvinced.

nabisco (nabisco), Monday, 3 February 2003 20:53 (twenty-three years ago)

We don't have to fight the Sauds and the mullahs if we seduce the populace right out from under them by showing the Arab people what can be accomplished in a free and open society, one day and one year at a time.
You mean like the collapse of parts of the banking system, widespread homelessness, violence in the streets, the decay of the inner cities, the move of wealth into the hands of a very few people, destruction of the environment through wastefulness (both trash and fossil-fuel style), and the like?

Maybe I'm overstating this, but it's worth saying again: What makes you think that what we have in North America is what people in other parts of the world, with different cultural backgrounds, would want? I mentioned A.O.Neville upthread but nobody bit: this idead that you/we know what's best for the world and will impose it on them, whether they like it or not, is just plain fucking scary.

Sean Carruthers (SeanC), Monday, 3 February 2003 20:59 (twenty-three years ago)

(And don't forget, Sean, it's not even "we" -- it's a single presidential administration, one that didn't even win a popular vote, pressing this agenda despite the majority of its citizens wanting at least the UN's assurance that it's a good idea, not to mention the vast majority of the rest of the world, including significant non-government factions within Iraq itself, thinking it's actually not a good idea.)

nabisco (nabisco), Monday, 3 February 2003 21:33 (twenty-three years ago)

I think the rest of the world wants (and what a dangerous opener that is) parts of what we have here in the West (many immigrant narratives [from the UK even!] talk about the paradisal experience of a US supermarket), but obviously to find and build those things in their own way. Things the West has insisted on, such as radical market liberalization while in dicey developmental shape, have been disastrous. Also, the West's cultural penetration isn't entirely welcome in Arab societies (hey, they're conservative) (but the story there is complicated, too, I'm sure). Regardless, the "US Troops on your streets" part of the package is prob. the least attractive, no?

(have to find again this art. by a ultra-con freemarketeer that was anti-war. Made good argts that war /= prosperity, quite the opposite as violence inhibits personal and market freedom and massive resources are directed towards destruction of...massive resources [duh]. Then made batty argument that free mkt would sort out Iraq peacefully no prob, but in the heretical way that profit and ownership had to be Iraqi & not US directed.)

(incidentally nabisco I liked your response to my earlier post about the "huge wound" metaphor ie "we're already tending it." History being the constant layering and shifting countless overlapping "wounds" and the tending or deepening thereof.)

g.cannon (gcannon), Monday, 3 February 2003 21:53 (twenty-three years ago)


You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.