Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread

Time to start one. He's in the running for greatest young pitcher since WWII.

I found eight guys who’d accumulated 30+ WAR by the end of their age-26 season. (Am I missing anyone obvious?) Ordered by WAR:

                         IP         W        L        H         BB        K        K/BB    ERA     ERA+   WAR
Blyleven       2144     122    113    1880     553    1728     3.12    2.79     134     49.7
Feller            1520     112     57     1199     850    1292     1.52    3.15     136     39.3
Gooden        1714     132     53     1467     505    1541     3.05    2.91     122     36.5
Seaver          1379      95      54     1090     352    1155     3.28    2.34     149     35.9
Clemens       1285      95      45     1088     371    1215     3.27    3.06     139     35.7
Kershaw       1259      86      48       958     404    1313     3.25    2.57     148     35.2
Felix              1620      98      76     1484     480    1487     3.10    3.22     128     33.4
Pedro           1146      84       46       890     373    1221     3.27    2.98     145     30.6

Kershaw still has half-a-season left--he should easily move to third on this list. A few notes.

1) They’re all at different points of their careers. Gooden, at the end of 1991, is clearly not the pitcher he was when he broke in. (Morbius can check me on this, but my recollection is that this was evident at the time—i.e., that no one expected him to return to anything close to where he was in ’84 and ’85. Can’t remember if his off-field problems were already an issue at 26.) Pedro, by contrast, is about to have two of the greatest seasons ever.

2) Almost all of Feller’s numbers are accumulated by age 22, when his military service begins (coming off seasonal WARS of 9.3/9.9/8.1). Give him back the three seasons he missed, and he undoubtedly sits at the top.

3) That aside, Blyleven’s huge WAR lead is pretty amazing.

4) Excepting Feller (product of the era), the K/BB ratios are extremely similar across the board.

5) Kershaw matches up very evenly with Clemens and Seaver.

I do hope that chart doesn't end up all over the place.

Yikes.

This should be better:

http://i1059.photobucket.com/albums/t427/sayhey1/kershaw_zps76a7a9e6.jpg

There were a lot of 300 IP pitchers in Blyleven's era. His lead in WAR is partly because he threw a lot more innings than anyone else on the list. On a WAR/200 IP basis, Clemens and Kershaw are in a separate category from the rest.

Johan Santana misses your cut (~22 WAR through age-26) because he wasn't a full time starter until age-25. The idea was to keep his IP count down when he was in his early 20's so that he wouldn't burn out by age 30, but shit happens.

because i apparently know everything dave cameron has ever said, he's actually come out and said that fWAR underrates kersh -- i know you're using bWAR here but i don't think he was talking about any factor that didn't affect both. i assumed it had something to do with the extreme park factor or maybe league factor. maybe i'll ask him next chat if i remember when it happens.

he threw a lot more innings than anyone else

so . . . he was more valuable

Even when the numbers clearly show how Burt Blyleven's value, he doesn't get a shake. If he pitched for the A's, Reds, Dodgers or Yanks in the 70s he would have probably won 325+ games. Those numbers in his early 20s are pretty mind boggling.

Yada yada...I know wins don't matter.

I'd kind of figure with the mastery of multiple pitches and being a lefty, that Clayton Kershaw would be somewhat comparable to Steve Carlton. It would be good to read an article or see an interview with a scout that saw them both in their prime to compare.

almost 40 years of human evolution on Kershaw's side.

(sorry, I am in the camp that maybe, just maybe, Ruth and Gehrig might be bench players on a current MLB team)

I don't doubt that, but Steve Carlton was pretty ahead of the curve on training for his day, so was Nolan Ryan for that matter.

On a related note, Jeter tied Gehrig on the career doubles list today. Evolution marches on.

let's see him do it with lou gehrig's disease

Zach: yes, I use Baseball Reference's numbers, mostly out of convenience. I like Jay Jaffe's method of splitting the difference--Posnanski explained the rationale for doing so in terms of Pedro's '99 and '00 seasons, and it made sense to me.

Another gem and now it's 36 scoreless innings.

8 scoreless in coors counts double i think

I'm goin his next start Thursday vs SD at home

High Heat Stats had a little chart the other day showing how close Kershaw and Sale were in most basic categories. Sale had last night's start since then, so I'll update.

IP: Kershaw (87.1), Sale (95.0)
W-L: Kershaw (10-2), Sale (8-1)
H/9: Kershaw (6.6), Sale (6.1)
K/BB: Kershaw (9.58), Sale (6.38)
WHIP: Kershaw (1.077), Sale (1.061)
ERA: Kershaw (1.85), Sale (2.08)
ERA+: Kershaw (190), Sale (193)

K/BB is the only sizable gap, where Sale's struggling along at a 6-1 ratio.

Also, I feel compelled to mention that Kershaw + Sale =

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/backissues/pauline-kael.jpg

welp, 41 innings and "phffft"

LA crowd most upset that they ran out of Hello Kitty travel mugs

I was looking at the game logs for Kershaw and Wainwright. They've each had three problem starts.

Kershaw:

One bad start: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 7 R, lost.
Two okay starts: 14 IP, 14 H, 1 BB, 18 K, 6 R, lost both. ("Okay" for Kershaw--both were quality.)

Wainwright:

Two bad starts: 9.1 IP, 18 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 13 R, lost both.
One mediocre start: 7 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 4 R, won.

Together, here's what they've done in their other 27 starts:

202.1 IP, 121 H (5.37/9), 34 BB, 194 K (5.71 K/BB), 17 R (0.76 ERA), 22-1.

fuck ESPN, i thought they might improve but all they care about is big market teams but tonight St. Louis gets the treatment.

if not for that DL stint, he's prob be heavy fave for MVP; as of now, should still win it

yeah who else is there really? lucroy and mccutcheon i guess? they're having really excellent seasons but nothing close to kersh.

i would be shocked if anyone other than kersh or puig won

I was going to mention Puig, but didn't want everyone yelling WAR at me (a modest 3.8 on Baseball Reference--negative for defense).

McCutchen is on the DL with his rib, who knows how much more he'll play; and aside from Lucroy and Stanton -- who I could see winning only if the Marlins get a WC, or if he hits 45 HR -- most of the nonpitcher contenders got hurt in the last month.

I heard one of the laziest sports talk radio bits of all time - some challopy shit about Kershaw not being good 'in the playoffs' and only using stats from when he was like 20-21 and one bad start in the last game of the playoffs last year after racking up 250+ fucking IP.

I know its stupid to get annoyed with such things but good lord these people dont know shit about baseball.

Eight innings tonight, three hits, two walks, 10 K, 15th win. His WAR should be around 7.0 tomorrow in just over 150 IP.

Starting to make a rout of the MVP--his last five or six starts would have to be noticeably bad for the writers to look for other options (none of which are really compelling at the moment).

If I had to predict now, I'd say Kershaw/Lucroy 1-2, unless Cutch heals miraculously and leads the Corsairs to October.

i get the feeling the debate is gonna be cutch vs stanton if the marlins keep being WC relevant

kershaw missed too many games to break the no-pitchers rule and lucroy isn't having enough of a posey/mauer-ish MVP season offensively to make snoozing writers care

even with the missed games, he leads the majors in wins and his ERA starts with a 1. there's plenty to like from a traditional standpoint

he'll win CY sure but so many writers are literally "the MVP is the hitting award", verlander had 24 wins and 250 innings when he won

would be awesome if he and felix both won tho

Last night was indeed a marquee match-up for four and two-thirds innings...Posnanski:

In total, Kershaw is on pace to become just the fifth pitcher since Deadball to have a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP. The previous four are all-time seasons:

1946: Hal Newhouser, 1.94 ERA, 1.97 FIP
1963: Sandy Koufax, 1.88 ERA, 1.85 FIP
1968: Bob Gibson, 1.12 ERA, 1.77 FIP
1971: Tom Seaver, 1.76 ERA, 1.93 FIP
2014: Clayton Kershaw, 1.70 ERA, 1.89 FIP

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/era-fip-and-kershaw/#comments

Doesn't happen very often, I bet: pitcher having a historically great season up against a team that seems to have a historically anemic offense. Of course, to coin a phrase, baseball is a funny game, so if he doesn't pitch a perfect game, maybe he'll give up six runs instead.

he takes forever to pitch

I really don't want to end up as someone who obsesses over WAR, but I'm confused as to why he was 7.8 yesterday, and still 7.8 after an 8-inning start where he gave up 3 hits, 2 walks, and one earned run, and he struck out 8. He did give up a couple of unearned runs. Does WAR penalize for unearned runs? (Which I don't have a major problem with; James always thought runs allowed was more important than earned runs allowed.)

are you sure they've updated the numbers yet?

They have. Baseball Reference updates each morning sometime around 9:00; if the standing are updated, that means everything has been updated.

i don't think rWAR distinguishes between earned and unearned runs

for pitching, i prefer fWAR altho it's not perfect.

fangraphs also has daily updates (he got 0.3 yesterday)

had no idea rWAR includes unearned runs though i guess that makes sense

Today, he went up by 0.1 on Baseball Reference. I guess the rest of the league got worse as he sat watching.

didn't realize hes only given up 33 earned runs and 27 walks all season ¯\(°_0)/¯

19-3 now. take away his horrible start against arizona early in the season and his ERA is 1.38.

If he wins his next start, he'd get to 20 in his 27th start. SweetSpot: "Only one pitcher since 1901 has won 20 games in so few appearances -- Jesse Tannehill of the 1902 Pirates, who went 20-6 in 26 games."

wins, feh

Jeff Weaver won 20 in only 30 starts in 2012. What's really amazing is that he didn't pitch deep into games like Kershaw does -- he only had 188 IP, and I think that's a record. Kershaw is at 185 IP, so the record is safe.

sorry, Jered Weaver, not Taco Weaver.

wins, feh

I would have thought this would be one instance where wins actually are an accurate measure of excellence, along with everything else.

what if he was having the same year, but pitching for the Padres?

Kershaw's wins:

19-0, 146.2 IP, 87 H, 172/22 K/BB, 0.80 ERA, no cheap wins (though he did only pitch 5 innings in one of them; one run). Craig Kimbrel as a starter, basically, but with fewer strikeouts and better control.

what I'm saying is with a lousy offensive team, some of those wins would be NDs or even a loss or two. Which has nothing to do with him.

Pitcher wins are an excellent measure of 19th-century accounting.

You've picked the most extreme example...sure, in that case he'd probably be 16-6 or something. Which doesn't change the fact that, with Kershaw, his W-L record is an accurate measure of how well he's pitched.

except for all the other ones.

Which doesn't change the fact that, with Kershaw, his W-L record is an accurate measure of how well he's pitched.

Your sentence doesn't follow from mine--I don't think I said the most accurate, just one of many. I mean, I understand what you're saying, but you're using a hypothetical situation (what if he pitched for the Padres) to cast doubt on something we know to be true: Kershaw's 19-3 because he's been phenomenal, not because of run support or any other factor beyond his control. (Not sure what his run support's been, but I'm sure most of it has been superfluous.)

NO, HE IS 19-3 IN PART *BECAUSE* HIS TEAM SCORES FREQUENTLY

k bye

Sorry, I just think that's factually wrong.

The 19 wins:
0 earned runs -- 8 times
1 earned run -- 9 times
2 earned runs -- 2 times

The 3 losses:
3 earned runs -- 2 times
7 earned runs -- 1 time

The 3 no-decisions:
3 earned runs -- 3 times

What you're saying would have a little or a lot of validity with most pitchers. I don't see that it has any validity here. If you can take those games and explain how 19-3 overstates Kershaw's excellence, I'd be interested in hearing that. Unless you're arguing that he should be even better than 19-3--that some of those losses and no-decisions might have been wins--in which case you have a point.

Wins have more meaning for pitchers who average more innings per start. At 7.4 IP/start (tops in MLB, I think), Kershaw has a lot more control over the outcome of the game than a 6 IP/game pitcher whose W-L record is more influenced by the quality of his team's bullpen.

Also, he has a decent shot at the triple crown (again).

With the Cubs crumbling, Kershaw is set to be the first NL player since WWII to win 20 in less than 30, I know wins are dumb and whatnot but that seems significant enough.

6-3 Dodgers after one inning in Chicago!

how did you arrange Edwin's return?

Ha, Kershaw vs Jackson -- biggest pitching mismatch of the 21st century thus far?

So that was Kershaw's second-worst outing of the year, maybe?

I was going to say that, after that back-and-forth from a couple of days ago, he of course goes out today and picks up his first unimpressive win of the year--first time where run support clearly made a difference. It's like he's mocking my most excellent research.

his 20th win in his 26th start. ridic.

uhhh Kershaw just destroyed the wins theory today, even clemenza noticed.

cheap wins are a thing, tough losses are a thing (Braves starters demonstrating the hell out of that this year), everybody drop your guns or the kid gets it

it doesn't prove his mastery of all creation, but it *is* both rare and ridiculous

In the end isn't every number just made up anyway, makes u think

Yesterday didn't destroy didn't destroy the wins theory. There was no theory in the first place, just the idea that Kershaw's 19-3 record, in this specific instance, did not exaggerate his excellence. Today, Kershaw's 20-3 record does not exaggerate his excellence.

on his triple he looked like a horse galloping out of a burning barn

We all know W-L records can be misleading, but when people quote run support, do they account for the fact that that can be misleading too? Nine runs were scored for Kershaw while he was the pitcher of record last night, so his average run support will be adjusted accordingly. What that doesn't tell you is that a) seven of those runs were superfluous, and b) the game was still 1-1 going into the bottom of the sixth.

SweetSpot's David Schoenfield, who I think is very good and fairly mainstream: "Let's not make the MVP debate more complicated than it needs to be: Clayton Kershaw is the best, and most valuable, player in the National League. There shouldn't really need to be a debate."

I wouldn't go that far--there's a debate there; LuCroy's been great, Stanton was right there until the injury (perhaps leading), there's McCutchen and Rendon--but I do agree with the middle part of that quote.

McCutchen will def be the focus of the "not enough innings" crowd now, but meh who cares

In those narrative factors ILB hates--that was the first word I learned on ILB: "narrative"--I'd say McCutchen benefits from the admirable-superstar factor, and is hurt by the won-one-already factor. So a wash.

unless he gets 3 hits a day in the remaining games and the Bucs win the Central

i think it's mostly kershaw vs giancarlo now, tho both seem way too unconventional to be frontrunners

what's unconventional about Stanton?

Stanton is almost a too-trad candidate, but i think the writers don't want to be perceived as giving him any sort of pity vote, and at 24 they think he can improve on 37hr 105rbi when he's with the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers.

now can we bail on awards and anticipate Kershaw's LDS start?

as it stands it'll probably be Kershaw vs Wainwright.

Um...he'll pitch well? There's so much more room to wander around when it comes to award talk.

By the way, if McCutchen did come up with 12 more hits--he's the only guy left who's candidacy isn't frozen--and the Pirates caught the Cards, I think you'd have a very close vote, and I'm not sure who'd win.

stanton is super-unconventional. incomplete season on a losing team. after the trout/cabrera war of 2012 in which the losing team argument was used 50 million times, passionately, you'd think they wouldn't just let a guy slip in unless it's a season for the ages. he's missing less time than kershaw but missing it at the end is a lot more noticeable than missing it at the beginning.

er, 2012 wasn't a losing team argument but literally a losing out on the playoffs argument, jfc

I really don't get the playoff contention argument yeah. Also, Stanton missed (almost) as many games as McCutchen and Rendon, Lucroy is a catcher, and when it comes to WAR they all had similar numbers. What an odd season in that regard.

yeah, i thought stanton missed more than he had.

but if they aren't willing to vote for mike trout's amazing 2012 because the angels had only 89 wins, it'd be a bit surprising if stanton got in with a less impressive year on a team that didn't even get to .500. it's silly. of course the playoffs thing was mostly just an excuse in 2012 but still. i've already heard the argument that stanton deserves it because the marlins were "closer to contending than anyone thought" which, rmde. poor, poor trout, my heart weeps for thee etc

kershaw had a season for the ages but it seems equally unconventional voting for a pitcher who missed 6 starts. maybe the most unconventional win since eck? still rooting for him but it wouldn't surprise me if cutch sneaks in for tradition's sake.

btw kershaw has 0.4/0.5 batting fWAR/rWAR which everyone always forgets about

watching a video of Bumgarner two grand slams*

wait was that you said?

He has a 3.72 ERA in 17 starts vs people wearing Cardinal laundry

First time ever a guy's given up seven runs in back-to-back post-season starts. He has out-Joaquined Joaquin.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/52236/that-happened-eight-runs-off-kershaw

Talk about a faulty memory; I knew Andujar didn't start game 7 of the '85 Series, but amazingly, he only pitched to two batters:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA198510270.shtml

I think many people, like me, associate that meltdown with Andujar. I guess what we're remembering is the way he flipped out.

Russell Carleton: The Cardinals Do Not Own Clayton Kershaw

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24798

IIRC, in G6 of the NLCS last year there were a lot of soft hits and balls that fell just in front of the outfielders. The comeback on Friday wasn't luck -- he made bad pitches and the Cards were ringing line drives all over the place.

wouldn't argue with that, but it was, as they say, just one start.

healthy!

https://twitter.com/charliewiddoes/status/530475272249044992

are those cookies? if so you earned em buddy, we still luh you

Ah, Facebook...Koufax vs. Kershaw thread on a discussion group, and it's essentially me on one side(about equal during the regular season, obvious edge to Koufax in the postseason) and 20 other people who believe that it's not even close because 1) Koufax never needed to hand it over to a closer (ignoring that that's simply the way the game was structured then), 2) Kershaw's postseason troubles reveal some deep flaw within him (ignoring that we're basically talking about two bad innings), and 3) Kershaw has to do it for another four or five seasons before the question's even worth addressing (ignoring that Kershaw's great run is almost as long as Koufax's right now). Maddening.

ah, clemenza

Best FIP, Pitchers Age 21 to 26 seasons, minimum 1000 IP, 1950 - present:

Tom Seaver: 2.58
Clayton Kershaw 2.61
Sam McDowell 2.62
Bert Blyleven 2.68
Roger Clemens 2.79

so yeah, he's doing pretty well so far!

Of the top 30, I count 11 in the HOF; add Clemens, that would be 12. Kershaw will probably make 13 down the road (except the list will be different then). Anyway, fewer than half. I bet a comparable position player list based on WAR or OPS+ or whatever, at least two-thirds would be in or going into the Hall of Fame.

Pitchers seem to be fragile.

McDowell's stats between 1965 and and 1970 are rather nuts. Going from 8.2 FWAR to 2.7 to 7.2 again.

Drinking man.

(Something I didn't know, if true. According to Wikipedia, "The character of Sam Malone, the alcoholic ex-Red Sox pitcher portrayed by Emmy Award winning actor Ted Danson in the television program Cheers, was based on the baseball life of McDowell.")

It's Kershaw Day at BP; there are about ten free articles to read. Zachary Levine:

Kershaw is, according to the PECOTA projections, supposed to be the best pitcher in baseball this year. This is hardly a surprise. He was the best pitcher in baseball last year. By ERA+, he’s also been the best pitcher in baseball over the last two years, the last three years, the last four years, the last five years, the last six years, the last seven years, and with enough innings to qualify, the seven-year veteran has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last eight years.

The projection is something pretty familiar for Kershaw: A 2.23 ERA, 237 strikeouts in 224 innings, a 19-9 win-loss record—numbers that would give him another Cy Young Award should he be in the running against pretty much anybody other than 2014 Kershaw. The 5.8 WARP would fit right in within 0.3 wins of each of his three best seasons and a small regression from last year’s performance.

We know, though, that this is just a single line reading of what’s really a (multidimensional) continuum of possible outcomes. Specifically, it’s the median. He’s 50-50 to be above this point in each of the metrics, and he’s 50-50 to be below.

Whereas the median projection looks downright mundane given what we’re used to from Kershaw, it was the tail—and not even the extreme tail—that stood out. Kershaw’s 90th percentile projection is almost unfathomable. The raws benefit from Dodger Stadium and for it always taking a while to adjust our eyes to the light of a new run-scoring environment, but the adjusted stats tell you it isn’t just your eyes. A 1.46 ERA, the lowest since Bob Gibson in 1968 and the second-lowest of the live-ball era. An 8.8 WARP, behind only 1999 Pedro Martinez as far as seasons in the WARP time (1950-present).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25736

the craziest thing to me about kershaw is he came up with two pitches - a sick fastball and a hammer curve.. the curve had so much movement sometimes the umps weren't calling it a strike, so he responds by developing a slider that has become one of the best in the game.. if he can perfect his change that he only throws like 5 times a game he can stretch his career out forever.

Very comparable to Seaver through 1971 (his greatest all-around year, though not as famous as '69)--one inning apart, for starters:

Seaver: 95-54, 1379.1 IP, 7.1 H/9, 1.045 WHIP, 3.28 K/BB, 2.34 ERA, 149 ERA+, 35.9 WAR

Kershaw: 98-49, 1378.1 IP, 6.8 H/9, 1.059 WHIP, 3.41 K/BB, 2.48 ERA, 151 ERA+, 39.7 WAR

Both in pitcher-friendly parks (Dodger Stadium more so, I think), both in pitcher-friendly eras (Seaver's definitely more so, although 1970 was a big hitter's year), both 26.

I got wanting to look at some video to try to compare Steve Carlton and Clayton Kershaw's pitching. Haven't found a comparible Kershaw montage, but man check out the movement on some of Lefty's pitches in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iHFkgs1zx8

liner off the face; just a little dental work.

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/12530522/clayton-kershaw-los-angeles-dodgers-gets-extra-dental-work-being-hit-face-line-drive

James had a long piece a few months ago about ranking starting pitchers; his site now ranks all the current starters and updates the rankings daily. Kershaw started the year with a sizeable lead, but Scherzer and/or Felix may pass him within a start or two. (Not saying I agree with this--I'm inclined to question any system that has R.A. Dickey in the Top 20.)

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

It's based on game scores, and it's all explained here:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_worlds_1_starting_pitcher/

that's interesting, i'll have to check in on it occasionally. as you'd expect, it incorporates a lot of past performance into the score, so strasburg is still top 25 even though he's been awful so far this season, and wainwright is at 12 even though he's already been out for a while and won't be back til next year.

Yeah, it's very much a rolling thing that goes back three, maybe four seasons (and includes postseason, hence Bumgarner up near the top). I like this:

When a pitcher is a candidate for the Hall of Fame, the fact that he was the #1 ranked pitcher in the world for two years is going to be a major credential that his supporters can point to--or, vice versa, if the pitcher was never #1, it’s a major hole in his resume.

If you tracked this through the '80s, I bet Morris only made it into the top half-dozen for one or two short stretches (and was never close to #1).

yeah for me you had to have been one of the best 5 players in the league for at least a few seasons to be a hall of famer. i use the same argument with the NBA HOF, which is much more of a "big hall" than baseball's. i prefer the small hall tbh

Awesome last night. I didn't know what to make of his slow start--most of his peripherals were still good, but we've seen (admittedly older: Verlander, Sabathia) some pitchers suddenly go south recently, so I wasn't sure if there was something going on there.

Scherzer just edged ahead of Kershaw for the #1 spot in James's rankings.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

Kershaw's been bumped one more night, but when he faces Trout tomorrow, it will evidently be the first reigning-MVP-to-reigning-MVP regular-season match-up ever.

(According to Facebook according to Reddit according to whoever they got it from. But it sounds reasonable.)

Eight more scoreless innings for Kershaw, his scoreless streak is up to 37 innings.

He's on pace for 300 K this year too.

First Kershaw-Trout AB yesterday:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v320177383/laalad-kershaw-strikes-out-trout-looking-in-the-1st/?game_pk=415196

(xpost) Didn't realize how long its been since someone did this: Randy Johnson in 2002. As strikeouts go up and up, find that odd. The five-man rotation and rote use of bullpen was all in place 15 years ago, no?

have to think # of IP by starters per game has decreased since then

Trout and Harper are historic, but Kershaw is clearly the most dominant player in baseball right now. I assume they know what they're doing with the 132 pitches.

doyers called up bolsinger, which leads me to believe they're gonna six-man the rotation to lighten his load

not quite as dominant as Dallas Keuchel, really.

Keuchel or not, he is building a case for a 4th cy young

seager called up too btw

unless you are giving enormous weight to Ks, Kershaw is probably not the best pitcher on his team this year.

Kershaw has the lead in Fangraphs WAR

& counterpoint, greinke does on baseball-ref

WARP computed using DRA, Greinke by 6.70-6.49

(BP)

'building a case' doesn't mean 'automatic winner', but yeah, I do give importance to xFIP.

what is DRA?

I like James's rankings, which take a longer view than four or five months (the logic that every year puts a couple of guys into the All-Star Game on the basis of a fast start and little else).

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

The gap between Kershaw (#1) and Greinke (#2) there is as large as the gap between Greinke and Cueto at #9. I think the Top 6 are exactly right. (Bumgarner gets credit for what he did in the postseason; ignore that, and he probably drops out.)

xp deserved run average, here's the BP explanation http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26195

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO9jMi2UsAEMjmi.png:large

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-20150915-story.html

Definitely a Cy argument for Kershaw--a strong one--but unless he has a couple of bad starts, Greinke will win. Which is fine.

300 K

@based_ball

Clayton Kershaw, OPS allowed, final

2013: .521
2014: .521
2015: .521

Totally missed his first start. Not too shabby, says Adam Sandler.

95 Game Score today--and knocked in the only run.

Missed that last start of his...Has a 19.25 K/BB ratio (77/4); the record's 11-something. Basically takes one lousy start to cut that in half, though.

Basically he is having last season without the (relatively) first two months.

Newest member to the 50 fWAR club.

Seaver was as 51.7 at the end of his age-28 season, Pedro 52.0, Clemens 54.2. So he should stay ahead of those guys for another season, although keeping up with Clemens at the other end will be near-impossible.

(I was going by Baseball Reference.)

Pretty sure Fangraphs/ xFIP rates him more. Here's to another 50 WAR.

Probably a dumb question but is it possible to figure out which game he'll likely be pitching in the Cubs/Dodgers series at the end of the month or is too far away to predict reliably?

you could guess just by following the 5-man rotation and seeing when his turn would be up again. but it could be altered by rainouts, injuries, and weird baseball(tm) occurrences

A month-plus out, we left it to chance and it almost worked out--missed him by a day.

I like looking up mismatched odds. You have to bet $375 on Kershaw today to win $100. That's about as long as baseball odds ever get--I guess Kershaw vs. the Braves would be even longer.

he's sposed to pitch vs Bartolo (again) in NY next Sunday night, which means there should be some decent tix available due to the time switch

(ok, not as many as there wd be on a non-holiday weekend)

not as many as there were when i bought in anticipation 3 weeks ago

wow kudos

maddux alert through 8

https://twitter.com/SamMillerBP/status/734966240888819712

Obviously a little giddy and premature, but I love this:

•In five May starts, he has had more shutouts (three) than walks (two).

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/180219652/clayton-kershaw-goat-may-2016-dodgers?partnerId=ed-10369488-658620023

his k/bb ratio rn is 100/5 o_o

10 ks and no walks in 7.2 IP and who gets the win? adam liberatore, who blew a save in seven pitches.

this has been your daily outrage over something no one cares about anymore

https://twitter.com/BillPetti/status/737280851524911105

I was messing around last night with a six-year peak (consecutive seasons) comparison between some recent pitchers--I didn't write anything down, but I think it was Pedro first, Kershaw or Maddux second, Johnson and Seaver and Clemens behind them.

Years and years of research here:

http://i1059.photobucket.com/albums/t427/sayhey1/pitchers_zpso9ar9u74.jpg

In honor of Adam Liberatore, I included wins and losses.

Seaver was hurt in '74--I should have gone '68-72 for him:

100-53, 2.38, 147+, 1.030, 3.52.

With that in mind, I'd rank them 1) Pedro, 2) Kershaw/Maddux, 4) Johnson, 5) Clemens/Seaver.

Aargh--let's try Seaver again, '68-73:

119-63, 2.32, 151+, 1.021, 3.58.

Same ranking.

At home, against Atlanta, opposing pitcher 1-6 with an ERA near 6.00. Dodgers won last night, the Braves have lost two in a row. Betting $100 on Atlanta wins $400+. If I could, I would make that bet--the set-up is just too perfect.

Just for fun--my own--Kershaw's line minus his one bad start against Miami:

Games started - 12
W/L - 9-0
Team W/L - 12-0
QS - 12
Average game score - 77
IP - 93.2
R - 13
ER - 12
H - 53
BB - 5
K - 112
ERA - 1.15
WHIP - 0.622
K/BB - 22.40

@McCulloughTimes
Clayton Kershaw is being flown back to Los Angeles to see team doctors.

Stay healthy, please.

ffs please

at least it's a sore back, to counterpoint the trendy arm apocalypses.

got an epidural(?!), going on the DL

:( hope the birth goes well stay strong little kersh jr

‏@McCulloughTimes
Dave Roberts initially said the team hoped Kershaw would be back after the break, but then he backed off that. May be a little longer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3TuOQkN7e0

@McCulloughTimes
Clayton Kershaw "didn't feel great" on Sunday, Dave Roberts said. He's shut down until his back pain goes away. His return? "Uncertain."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/17108426/clayton-kershaw-los-angeles-dodgers-shut-due-continuing-back-pain

SMH

Out until at least Aug. 27.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/dodgers-ace-clayton-kershaw-moved-to-60-day-dl-080316

I'd shut him down for the year, but they're close enough in the standings to complicate that.

The starting pitching is doing very well without him iirc

Looks like he's close to returning:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/196718316/clayton-kershaw-throws-bullpen-session/

I'd say it's amazing that the Dodgers have taken over first in his absence, except it's an old story: everyone--GMs, writers, fans, me--tends to over-value the importance of one player. (Truer for pitchers, but holds for position players too.)

hasn't pitched in 8 weeks and leads NL pitchers in both kinds of WAR. nuts.

3-inning start for Rancho Cucamonga today

great job Kersh! said he's gonna start for LA in 4 games

If he goes Friday and continues to take his regular turn, he'll have five more starts. I could see where his Cy Young case is still strong if he pitches well, but I think all the calendar time missed would point to Scherzer or Bumgarner. It could be a little like the year Josh Hamilton missed the last month of the season; he held on to the MVP, but I don't Kershaw will.

Will become the second-fastest to 2,000 K tonight (after Randy Johnson). So not the second-youngest--I did a double-take at first. I'm guessing Seaver, Clemens, and Blyleven got there younger. Maybe Ryan, too; he got a bit of a late start, though. And the war probably interrupted Feller.

No Seaver, no Clemens--very surprised.

http://groundballwitheyes.blogspot.ca/2015/05/youngest-pitchers-to-reach-2000.html

every time i see this thread title in my bookmarks my heart skips a beat

Scherzer's just a couple of points from overtaking Kershaw on Bill James's "#1 Starting Pitcher Rankings" (it's all based on Game Scores, includes postseason play, and is a year-over-year running ranking):

1. Clayton Kershaw - 589.4
2. Max Scherzer - 587.2
3. Chris Sale - 557
4. Corey Kluber - 537.5
5. Madison Bumgarner - 531

4 walks for kershaw tonight. he hasn't looked quite right this year
― k3vin k., Saturday, May 6, 2017 11:17 PM (one month ago)

Having a great year, but I think you were onto something there. 7-0 lead tonight, proceeded to give up three HR; that's 16 for the year, tying his career high before the break.

make that 4

how the fuck did he give up 2 to Reyes?

cheap 6-ER win for CK.

past calendar year:

kershaw: 137.1 IP, 3.5 fWAR
jansen: 69.1 IP, 3.7 fWAR

Got out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the first, great after that.

Overall, definitely his shakiest year in a while. Going through his game log, though, he's only had the one (really) cheap win last week; every other win was 7+ innings, 0, 1, or 2 runs. There was one cheap no-decision (4.1 innings, 4 runs), and he wasn't good in either loss (6 innings and 4 runs in both). His other two no-decisions he pitched well (16 innings, 2 runs).

It wouldn't be accurate to say the gaudy W-L record is a mirage--reverse the cheap win, call the no-decisions a wash, and he'd be 10-3.

It's the home runs that have killed him this year (leading to his worst FIP since 2010 by a big margin). Everything else is right in line with 2011-2013 Kershaw, if not always the last three seasons.

he's 93-0 when dodgers give him at least 4 runs of support

Wanted to get some context for that, but Baseball Reference breaks down pitcher's starts by 0-2 runs of support, 3-5, and 6+. Anyway, with 6+:

Clemens: 179-5
Johnson: 160-11
Pedro: 105-3
Maddux: 173-10

Am I reading that correctly? All of them got six or more runs of support in half their wins? That seems really high.

all of them played half their careers in the steroid era

It's almost like there's something flawed with the Win statistic ;)

I knew I was teeing one up there...Had no idea the percentage was that high, though. Era would explain some of that, yeah; I also wonder if that includes runs scored for the entire game, i.e. any runs scored after the pitcher leaves. So a guy could leave with a 2-1 lead in the seventh, his team scores four runs in the eighth/ninth, and it ends up looking like he won a blowout.

Since his terrible start against the Cubs:

36 IP, 22 H, 51 K, 6 BB, 2 ER.

pretty sure that includes 4 shutouts in his last 5 outings (incl one stretch of 3 in a row!) i think maybe you mean against the mets, clem, when he gave up 3 or 4 homers june 19

June 19 against the Mets, you're right--the Cubs go back to May 28. He had three good starts between the two.

Clayton Kershaw disappeared into the trainers' room after the top half of the second inning, and now Ross Stripling is warming up. Looks like he will take it from here. No word yet on what might be ailing Kershaw, who has been pitching at his best.

dammit. missed the beginning of the game, just tuned in to see him leave the field and there's been no conjecture what's wrong except he was holding his hip as he walked off after the top of the 2nd

Who's the idiot who titled this thread?

@BNightengale
Clayton Kershaw will go on DL, #Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says. with no timetable on return; tests scheduled Monday on his back.

fuck

Best player, best pitcher, and #1 future-superstar all in the same season--and you can throw in Beltre, chasing two major milestones.

:(

Sinking feeling he's going to take the Koufax parallels too far.

btw Koufax started 314 games (+ 70some relief outings early on), threw 2324 innings

Kershaw: 284 starts, 1901 innings

koufax also started when injuries were still treated with leeches and miracle elixirs

yep, that's why cross-era comparisons are foggy

out for 4-6 weeks apparently.

guess Scherzer will grab Cy #3 barring a total collapse and an incredible Kershaw komeback

such a bummer

(xpost) It's in my own best interest for Scherzer to win (a HOF bet I posted about elsewhere), but I can still easily see Kershaw winning. Scherzer's last start was poor; if he has a couple of more mediocre starts while Kershaw's out, and Kershaw comes back with a strong September, it'd be close, I think. Kershaw's numbers are frozen at a pretty impressive place for the next four weeks.

Bill James's leaderboard is tightening (in the original article he designated 600 as "a historic level").

Kershaw - 610.1
Scherzer - 609.3
Sale - 596.7
Kluber - 585.1

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/245168842/dodgers-clayton-kershaws-back-injury-better/

Can't see that there's any incentive to re-activate him too soon with their lead.

Went to the game last night. So damn much fun thx in part to G'ints' bullpen

clayton kershaw is expected to make his triple-a debut saturday in oklahoma city

What was the true nature of Kershaw's crap start?

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20669761/clayton-kershaw-thin-line-one-bad-start-catastrophe

Altherred history

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/9/18/16331508/dodgers-clayton-kershaw-first-grand-slam-phillies-aaron-altherr

the streak lives

Kershaw's career ERA after each season of his career:
4.26
3.36
3.17
2.88
2.79
2.60
2.48
2.43
2.37
2.36https://t.co/UUjKUuvBAH

— Ben Lindbergh (@BenLindbergh) October 1, 2017

Hannah Hochevar
Fun to watch the Kershaw arm angle last night. Seemed like he dropped down a few times again. Announcers were saying that some of his problems this year are due to hitters being more geared for low balls in general. Agree?

Jeff Sullivan
He's worked lower than he usually does this season. Not that his season was in any way bad. And I don't have a good explanation for the postseason dingers, aside from, welp
The drop-down slot continues to intrigue me, because it's interesting while also not being so helpful. Kershaw hasn't pitched all that well from the second arm slot, but he's still doing it in the playoffs, suggesting that he thinks it's worth the trick
Did it four times last night. Two strikes, all fastballs, all elevated

Dallas Cankle:
If Clayton Kershaw opts-out next year what’s the highest Farhan Friedman goes before saying uncle?

Paul Swydan:
I think that’ll actually be a really interesting discussion. They don’t seem like the kind of front office who will be swayed by sentiment, and if Kershaw has back problems for a third consecutive season in 2018, I could see the Dodgers not making much of an effort to keep him at all.

what's up

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-the-crack-in-clayton-kershaws-armor/

just came to post that story. something I've been noticing and dreading for a year or so now

Welp:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23664559/los-angeles-dodgers-ace-clayton-kershaw-mri-back-tightens-1st-game-back

All 20 of Clayton Kershaw's four-seam fastballs were 90.0 mph or slower in his outing Thursday night, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Last year, not a single one of his 1,142 four-seam fastballs was 90.0 mph or slower.

yikes

His back was giving him problems though. He probably returned too soon.

Seems like he is back for at least a month on the DL.

What a bummer.

Won his 150th this afternoon.

Hard to know where he's at right now. He hasn't been as dominant this year, but he has been surprisingly consistent. His WHIP and K/BB ratios are back where they were four or five years ago, before he started posting off-the-chart numbers; his ERA and ERA+ match his career line. In 18 starts, he's given four runs once, three runs twice, no runs twice, and all the rest were one or two runs--as I say, consistent. His average Game Score is 60; in his MVP year, it was 70. If he gets healthy and settles in where he is right now, that'd be fine; no longer the best pitcher in baseball, but consistently one of the five or six best. "If he gets healthy," though, contains a lot--he's had three abbreviated seasons in a row.

adjusting

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/clayton-kershaws-disappearing-fastball/

kershaw trivia: the only time his mouth is not hanging wide open is when he's delivering a pitch

off that point a bit, Morbs, it is interesting to see the top SPs in MLB this year and how the vast majority of them don't just have more strikeouts than innings pitched, but substantially more to what must be a historic degree. and Kershaw of all people is one of the comparative few from that group whose Ks are less than 9 per 9 IP.

He's been on the DL twice this year. Can't remember the last time he had a healthy season tbqh... 2015? or '13?

...posted in "Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread" lol

I must bear the responsibility for putting the curse on him.

Kristen:
Kershaw has been trending downwards the past few seasons in terms of FIP, FB velocity, SwStr%, Hard Hit%, etc. Add his contract demands and is it possible his market won’t be huge after all?

Jay Jaffe:
His market may not even be bigger than the team that still has exclusive rights to negotiate with him. But the extended negotiating period signals that he’d prefer to stay, and I think it’s just a matter of finding the right number. The Dodgers are clearly comfortable paying a premium to keep him.

his hardest fastball in game five was 91 mph : /

Peak Kershaw clearly history, but can he still be a co-ace?

he's still pretty good, just not $35m good. especially if he's going to miss 6-10 starts each year. ehh, the dodgers can afford it

i think buehler's the ace now, tho

best decision from kershaw's perspective would seem to be extending his deal with dodgers, for sure. i'll be kind of shocked if he signs with any other team

i'm not writing Kershaw off quite yet, he's young and a guy like Verlander had his Cy Young peak, went through worse, and bounced back to peak form.

he's obviously no kershaw, but i'm interested to see what happens with bumgarner too. year and a half younger, but his peripherals have declined even more. the giants have a $12m team option for 2019 at the end of an *extremely* team-friendly contract and i don't think he'll get the contract, at age 30, that he was expecting three years ago

the giants should obviously trade him but they'll probably sign sabathia, bring back marco scutaro and give the boys one more shot

i think sabathia stays w nyy on some kind of mutual wakefield-type deal

I'd say Kershaw's back is probably more a drag on his effectiveness than losing some speed on his fastball. He still has top level control and movement.

I kinda think CC pitches, it will be for the Yanks or I could see Cleveland maybe reaching out to maybe finish career where it started.

@Ken_Rosenthal
Kershaw: “I am throwing slower. I know that. And I don’t know if that’s going to be for the rest of my career, either. I firmly believe that I can get that back and I’m going to spend a lot of time this off-season working on that.”

did anyone say how Verlander got his velocity "back"? cuz i'm not aware of that happening for anyone else.

this is baseball's greatest mystery for me -- i can understand how players can be faster than me, or make better contact, or hit the ball farther, etc. i don't understand how they throw so fucking hard

the astros have that reliever, josh james, who supposedly added 5+ mph to his fastball after getting his sleep apnea treated. i don't understand that either

Verlander's case was a weird one, maybe it was because the injuries he suffered during that time were more easily manageable? The core muscle surgery, the triceps strain...I'm no doctor, but maybe those are not so much the types of issues that'll have long-term effects.

knowing nothing at all, i'll just bullshit and say "it's all in the wrist"

did anyone say how Verlander got his velocity "back"? cuz i'm not aware of that happening for anyone else.

Health and mechanical tweaks.

xpost

And some other stuff.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2790162-the-road-that-brought-justin-verlander-back

three years, $93m

so he gets an extra year and $28m more guaranteed, will be a free agent following his age-33 season

the astros have that reliever, josh james, who supposedly added 5+ mph to his fastball after getting his sleep apnea treated. i don't understand that either

― mookieproof, Friday, November 2, 2018 11:53 AM (ten hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Body is less tired, muscles have more explosion, etc

Sleep apnea is shit.

yeah i have some sleep issues too but the specific correlation to a significant bump in fastball speed is astonishing

I have always wanted to be in a batter's box i just see how it feels like having a 100 mph ball coming towards you.

No idea where you live but most cages will have a machine that hits 90 or so.

it's not really the same. the old machines with the levers are better, but the ones with the two tires give you no sense of timing

at least you know it's probably not going to hit you . . . unless you have a sadistic coach who's torqued up the two wheels. rip jack heimbuecher

I'm a bit confused by the Kershaw deal -- the one extra year doesn't give him much security. Wouldn't he want to hit free agency a year earlier and stand a better chance at getting a good 3-4 year deal when he's 32, rather than 33?

I guess the logic is that if he opted out now, would he get 3-4 years for 100 million total (=what he'll get from the extension)? He must think the answer is no.

yeah i'm not sure he'd get a better deal, plus he and the dodgers love each other

three years, $93m

so he gets an extra year and $28m more guaranteed, will be a free agent following his age-33 season

― mookieproof, Friday, November 2, 2018 4:19 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

great deal for the dodgers, gives them an out to cut bait if he continues to regress. surprised kershaw took it

The shape of his career may mirror Seaver's, although the ages don't align precisely.

Seaver was dominant from '69 to '73 (age 24-28), great from '74 to '81 (29-36), and then he tacked on a few years where he was still reasonably effective relative to the league (37-41). There are some blips in there, but you can more or less identify three phases.

Kershaw's dominant phase stretches from 2011-2017 (age 23-29). Maybe last year was the beginning of his merely-great phase.

Sinking feeling he's going to take the Koufax parallels too far.
― clemenza, Monday, July 24, 2017 10:33 AM (one year ago)

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dodgers-clayton-kershaw-shut-down-indefinitely-due-to-undisclosed-arm-issue-manager-dave-roberts-says/

I want to strangle the guy who named this thread.

don't feel too bad, it happens to pretty much all of them. :(

Per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, manager Dave Roberts says Kershaw has ceased throwing after feeling that something was amiss following a bullpen session. Roberts termed it an "arm kind of thing" and gave no timetable for a return to throwing. Kershaw will, however, take part in his usual non-throwing workouts.

yikes, an arm kind of thing.

in the words of Jeff Sullivan, "Pitching is bad, don't do it."

well, his season debut is tonight. i would love to see him be able to have a couple more solid seasons

Yeah, I’m thinking of going.

There are at least two prominent historical precedents where guys recreated themselves and went from overpowering strikeout pitchers to...I don't know--location and guile: Luis Tiant and Frank Tanana. Must be others. If he can do that, maybe he can put in six or seven more productive years.

cc sabathia is a good example--obviously he never returned to his late '00s, early '10s heights, but he's been effective for the past few seasons.

Was surprised to see him go 7 tonight (I assume he won't be out for the 8th), but only 84 pitches.

Clayton Kershaw just became the most productive Dodger in history:

64.8 WAR Kershaw
64.4 WAR Sutton
63.4 WAR Sniderhttps://t.co/thNx6cFPvl

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) August 7, 2019

This is almost at the level of Babe Ruth hitting the home run for the hospitalized kid on the shamelessly cornball scale, but I got a kick out of it anyway.

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/dodgers-convince-fan-to-keep-playing-baseball

"Before long, Kershaw will have lost even more fastball velocity. Time wounds all heels, and no one can outrun it forever. For a month, however, Kershaw has turned back the clock. He’s made a simple adjustment that makes batters’ lives harder, and for now that’s enough."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-remains-of-clayton-kershaw/

Passed Koufax in wins last night. 12 seasons each:

Kershaw - 166-71, 2.41, 159 ERA+, 4.27 K/BB, 2.70 FIP, 1.006 WHIP, 3 Cy Youngs
Koufax -  165-87, 2.76, 131 ERA+, 2.93 K/BB, 2.69 FIP, 1.106 WHIP, 3 Cy Youngs

Koufax's Cy Youngs were across both leagues, but the number of extra teams that involved was only a handful.

Also: big WAR advantage to Kershaw (65 to 53), big postseason advantage to Koufax (only a third as many innings, though).

kershaw a better hitter, but it's a pretty low bar

I don’t think we’ll get anywhere, but I’ll give this another go.

But it's a 'season' that has lasted 12 years (so far) and he literally is not the same kind of pitcher now as he was at the beginning. So, not a season.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius)

Tried to get my head around this and couldn’t. We’re comparing two sets of numbers: Clayton Kershaw, regular-season pitcher, vs. Clayton Kershaw, postseason pitcher. The particulars of how and when they were compiled seem beside the point to me, because it’s the same guy and the same time-frame. Anytime you make a general statement about a guy’s career, you’re talking about that player at many different stages of that career. But you don’t start chopping up the career into smaller segments for the purpose of...I don’t know what the purpose would be. “Willie Mays was a great baseball player”--that’s a general statement that encompasses the 1951 Willie Mays, the MVP of ’54 and ’65, and the barely-hanging-on gate attraction of 1973. The statement stands, though--you don’t need to clarify it any more than that, just like I don’t see any need to start micro-analyzing the statement “Clayton Kershaw has been a mediocre postseason pitcher” (and don’t really get why you’re so invested in doing so).

As for the "pressing" theory, when he threw 8 scoreless against ATL last year in the DS last year, why didn't he press that night?

As I wrote in the same post, I don’t know what’s behind Kershaw’s postseason troubles--the pressing theory is just that, a theory that makes sense to me. It wouldn’t preclude the occasional good or even great outing, though.

Kershaw does have some pretty amazing company on one list:

Worst ERA when facing elimination (Min. 20 IP):

Tim Wakefield - 6.75
Clayton Kershaw - 5.77
Roger Clemens - 5.28
Pedro Martinez - 5.17

(Not sure how many innings you're talking about with Clemens and Martinez--I'm guessing Kershaw's logged a few more.)

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/clayton-kershaw-postseason-timeline-breaking-down-playoff-struggles-of-the-dodgers-ace-after-game-5-meltdown/

chokers all!

“Clayton Kershaw has been a mediocre postseason pitcher”

Overall, that is a true statement, and I don't think anyone is saying otherwise.

and Willie Mays had his best postseason at age 40

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mayswi01.shtml#all_batting_postseason

so hang on for redemption, Clayton.

Conversely, I've never once used words like "choker" or "character" as an explanation for any of this--you kind of implied that that's where I was coming from last year, and it's simply not true.

I posted something similar yesterday; assuming he's around for another five or six seasons, I think Kershaw will eventually have a postseason similar to Price's last year (which I loved).

no clem, I'm caricaturing the sound of the mob (ie the worst online Dodgers fans). sorry if you thought otherwise.

Kershaw 2.0 is definitely a different player than Kershaw 1.0, his curveball is flatter and hangs a bit more in the strike zone. His new pitch (slurvy-slider) doesn't have enough zip, and his fastball is uh...

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eVm29BOKLxu15gyfIWQfX2B-7EY=/0x0:706x449/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:706x449):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16341430/image1__29_.png

someone somewhere was noting that his fastball and slider are now only 3mph apart -- throwing a harder fastball seems unlikely, but perhaps slowing down the slider would do enough to upset timing

(xpost) Fair enough.

I read that he's held in such high esteem by his teammates, they were going above and beyond when it came to consoling him.

Interesting piece for a couple of days ago:

http://blogs.fangraphs.com/clayton-kershaw-and-the-unfairness-of-narratives/

It falls about halfway on things we've been kicking around here: important metrics that are almost the same for him in the regular- and post-season (strikeout and walk rate), one that's much worse (HR).

It does give credence to the idea that it may be tied in with "the little voice in the back of your head":

That’s the math of the situation; it can’t change the feeling, though, the little voice in the back of your head that says “Hey, are you ready for this?” every time Kershaw pitches in October. And if the voice is in your head, you can be sure it’s in Kershaw’s too, every time he gives up a home run or a chain of singles. Is this all luck? Could it possibly be luck? How can it keep happening to me? Am I tipping my pitches? Pressing too hard? Not pressing hard enough?

Saying that someone might be pressing is, to me, just the flip side of saying clutch-hitting doesn't exist. (Which I agree with, although I'd allow that there are probably very isolated cases of players who do consistently perform well under pressure--an argument for somewhere else.) Sabermetrics doesn't buy clutch-hitting because a) the evidence isn't there, and b) why would it be?--you'd have to believe that athletes have some magical ability to change their abilities at key moments. But I also believe that athletes don't have magical abilities to not fall prey to something very human: that doubt creeps in when you don't succeed a few times in the same situation. It doesn't mean that you don't occasionally succeed--get a big hit, pitch a good game--just that the doubt lingers if you also keep back-stepping, and continues to linger until you definitively close that door, like Price did last year. I don't think Kershaw has done that yet. But I think he will at some point.

Believing in clutchness doesn't have to be tied in to a belief that someone can do it over an extended period of time. Someone can be clutch on a given day, where they do something they might not have done on another day because they were in a different frame of mind or they told themselves definitively, "I am going to do this now and I am not going to take no for an answer." I think that kind of stuff happens all the time.

He's pretty dominant every which way this season. Did he make some change that's returned him to what he was five years ago, or is he just having a good run? Five of his six starts have been good-to-great.

In a day of a billion I Told You So's, I thought for sure there'd be one from Morbius on this thread.

saw v little of Kershaw game tbh

Playoff Kershaw returned last night with a typical performance ... dominated into the 6th and started serving up longballs (although he made a good pitch to Machado).

roberts needs to treat kershaw like any other playoff starting pitcher - first sign of trouble, get him out of there. no need to go through the lineup a 3rd time.

Two excellent starts after that dreadful first one. I didn't know Baseball Reference had a player-to-player comparison feature that saves you all the work. Kershaw and Koufax have pitched almost exactly the same number of innings at this point (Kershaw's pitched ~25 more).

https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=koufasa01&type=p&player_id1=kershcl01&sum=0&request=1

Unless you factor in postseason, hard to not to give that to Kershaw.

Sorry but Koufax has 9 saves.

damn, he's a fireman!

Their opposing-batter slash line is almost identical: .209/.261/.319 for Kershaw, .205/.275/.319 for Koufax.

Price is the difference! Koufax’s salary over that period, when adjusted for inflation, only $3,480,575.58.

Cubs scored four in the first today, Kershaw replaced in the second; shortest start ever?

didn't seem right, lots of balls in the dirt

It was his shortest:

https://www.mlb.com/news/clayton-kershaw-makes-shortest-career-start-vs-cubs

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRpDXIWXMAIQDAt?format=jpg&name=small

That's a great list because those are probably the seven most famous Dodger pitchers...maybe Don Newcombe, too.

yeah, amazing list! i'm not sure how much people remember dazzy vance these days. my deep cut dodgers pitcher is preacher roe.

The best
https://deadline.com/2022/07/boy-approaches-clayton-kershaw-at-press-conference-my-grandpa-loved-you-im-meeting-you-for-him-1235072946/

Another reason why no other sport can touch baseball

https://i.imgur.com/dZndZst.png

what's the big deal? this is pretty much my identical back pain history

Right? At my house we call that "5:30 every morning."

i can totally throw, i just need someone to put my socks on and tie my cleats

Kershaw notches 200th career victory as Dodgers defeat Mets

Is Clayton Kershaw the best regular season pitcher ever? pic.twitter.com/IK9SEvHe6P

— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) April 21, 2023

what are we doing here

Top five of his generation, sure

His career rate stats will probably rank with just about any postwar pitcher when he finishes; obviously, he'll fall well short of Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Seaver, etc. in terms of durability. And then it's just a case of how much you put that down to the way the game has changed; would he have been logging 250-300 IP and 35-40 starts per year if he'd pitched in the '70s? No idea.

Some of his current rankings in career rate stats:

ERA+ - 4th (he's second behind Rivera post-war for unadjusted ERA; first for starters)
H/9 - 3rd
WHIP - 5th
SO/BB - 9th

I really wish he'd stayed healthier. He's at least been healthier than degrom though.

Curious how much will be remembered about his postseason difficulties 20 years from now. It's the kind of thing that does tend to hang around as a footnote--I can still remember that Gil Hodges (before my time) and Dave Winfield all went through something similar.

With the expanded postseason (starting in '95 and continuing until today), postseason stats are more important than ever. Guys are playing far more postseason games than before, and more teams are making it which means no more Ernie Banks situations where they play for bad teams and never get a chance in the postseason. Yeah, let's pour one out for Mike Trout but in general, the best players will all have multiple appearances with meaningful sample sizes.

Kershaw plays for one of the most dominant regular season teams ever, has only one title, and hasn't come close to matching his regular season stats in the postseason. I'm not saying it'll be a stain on his eventual HOF induction, but it'll definitely be remembered for a long time

I love kershaw and am glad he’s recognized as the all-time great that he is, but to consider him the best regular-season pitcher ever (which is distinct from the best per-inning pitcher) seems a little insulting to the guys who were every bit as good and pitched a lot longer

Agree, except that's what I mean about the changing game --would he have matched the Carltons and Madduxes if he'd pitched in their era? Verlander and Scherzer are considered old-school workhorses, and Kershaw isn't too far behind either one of them in career IP.

for sure, he's got a great case for best pitcher of his generation. but I imagine it's going to be kind to one's rate stats to take a few weeks off every couple of months and
rarely face hitters more than twice a game

Assuming Kershaw, Verlander & Scherzer are all of the same generation, I wouldn't rate Kershaw better than the other 2, more like equals.

I hate hypotheticals, but had Kershaw been healthy and not having those numerous IL stints, he may have had a stronger case.

(xpost) Totally agree again, I'm just wondering if that has more to do with him or usage patterns? Is there any evidence he wouldn't have pitched as much as Seaver in the '70s or Maddux in the '90s if he'd been around then? I guess he does seem a little fragile...Quick check: he was in his league's Top 10 for IP five times, but Seaver was Top 10 twelve times and Maddux Top ten seventeen (!) times. So maybe you're right, it has more to do with him.

Kershaw is pretty awesome but I agree w kev and steve and ntbt, which I don't think diminishes CK. Actually think he might be slightly the best of his era but it's not clear cut due to the likes of Verlander and Scherzer, though it's also an era where someone like Scherzer has career CG/shutout numbers which equate to basically what David wells might have done in one season. Everyone has the diminished workload compared to prior decades. But Kershaw also has the injuries and what feels like a bunch of incomplete seasons strung together over the past decade (except for 2015.)

no particular shade on kershaw, but my god verlander's late 30s were incredible

Dodgers, Kershaw announce ‘Christian Faith’ event amid Pride fallout

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/dodgers-kershaw-announce-christian-faith-event-amid-pride-night-controversy/

...

in the spirit of straight pride, international mens day, all lives matter, etc.

I thought this was just fuckawful timing but then I read this and I’m like, fuck him for this, honestly.

Notice he's really turned it around in June. Last four starts:

27 IP, 20 H, 28 K, 7 BB, 1.33 ERA

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers-clayton-kershaw-has-shoulder-surgery-hopes-to-pitch-next-year-1.2030667

Postseason aside--and maybe making amends is what drives him; is it money at this point?--his regular-season body of work is still close to flawless. His career ERA sits at 2.48, all his rate stats are among the best ever, and (if you care) his winning pct. is just shy of .700. I'm a little surprised he doesn't hang it up.

You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end, it turns out that it was the other way around all the time.

It's not just about the money, if it was, he would have pursued (and received) a multi-year deal from someone. He knows he can still compete at a high level. Maybe he really wants to end his career playing in his home state, that's the kind of thing every kid dreams about. But he also wants to win, and the Dodgers have been the best team nearly every year during his career. It's not an easy decisions, and good on him that he's earned the right to end his career on his own terms.

Perfect use of one of my favourite lines ever.