2017-2018 Hot Stove

this year's Qualifying Offer has been set at $17.4 million, up just $200k from last year

the braves have declined their $8m option on r.a. dickey

he was . . . not good the handful of times i saw him but still put up league-average numbers over 190 innings (19th-most in mlb) this year

kind of odd that the MLB leader in innings pitched (Chris Sale) finished w/a mere 214.1 IP.

sox wanted to keep him fresh so he could lose two playoff games

well he was able to check into his offseason lodgings early at least

http://www.lodgingcapital.com/wp-content/gallery/drake/drake1.jpg

12:33
Matt: What are the odds Stanton gets moved this winter?

12:33
Dave Cameron: 99%

2018
28 Miami Marlins $25,000,000

2019
29 Miami Marlins $26,000,000

2020
30 Miami Marlins $26,000,000 may opt out of contract following 2020 season

2021
31 Miami Marlins $29,000,000

2022
32 Miami Marlins $29,000,000

2023
33 Miami Marlins $32,000,000

2024
34 Miami Marlins $32,000,000

2025
35 Miami Marlins $32,000,000

2026
36 Miami Marlins $29,000,000

2027
37 Miami Marlins $25,000,000

2028
38 Miami Marlins *$25,000,000 $25M Team Option, $10M Buyout

@Joelsherman1
Tanaka must notify #Yankees by midnight Sat if opting out of final 3 yrs, $67M left, so NYY will have quick knowledge 1 way or the other.

uh oh

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/report-shohei-otanis-move-from-japan-to-mlb-in-jeopardy-due-to-negotiation-snafu/amp/

Are the new Marlins owners as cheap as Loria?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNozwlYWkAE1PdL.jpg

xp sounds like they might be cheaper

Offering Jeff Conine, Tony Perez and Andre Dawson https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/9243141455452446725,000 each is beyond insulting. Jeff can watch son Griffin be a no. 1 pick for Duke...

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) October 28, 2017

angels sign jupton to five-year deal (through 2022) superseding his existing contract (which ran through 2021)

extra year is worth $18m for his age-34 season

apparently this all happened because he had an opt-out on the existing deal

$106MM / 5 yrs

lol

Angels be angeling

DC approves

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/justin-upton-is-staying-in-anaheim/

idk, he seems fully capable of putting up the 3 WAR per year necessary to make it worthwhile

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
Tony LaRussa takes a front office role with the Red Sox. Hilarious.

Eno Sarris
Maybe he has contacts within the game and can facilitate trades? That's an underrated part of trades: they happen more often between people that are friendly.

fuck the cubs

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/02/nyregion/dnainfo-gothamist-shutting-down.html?_r=0

I mean no one who owns a sports team is a good person

I'd assume the 29 other owners would do everything they could to oppose a growing union too

the marlins have declined their option on ichiro, making him a free agent

Tea Leoni for Third:
Who will be the best player acquired this offseason by the Mariners?

Jeff Sullivan:
Some league-average first baseman

Q-Ball:
What teams do you think are going to go full rebuild this offseason?

Jeff Sullivan:
The Orioles should, but presumably won’t
The Blue Jays could, but presumably won’t
The Tigers have already started
I don’t know how the Royals are going to emerge from this
The Rangers might start laying the rebuild foundation
And the Marlins, of course, are going to begin some major shedding

the fucking al west, man

Tigers' 40-man currently at -3.

half a dozen rule 5 picks; very exciting

Tanaka does not opt out

The Big Question Every Team Will Have to Answer This Winter https://t.co/U9e3s2quAU

— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) November 7, 2017

Teams that have spoken to agent Scott Boras about new client J.D. Martinez have come away with the impression that Boras and Martinez are seeking a deal in the vicinity of $200MM in total guarantees, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Martinez hired Boras as his new representative just days before the free-agent period began.

i'm always surprised that he gets linked to NL teams in trade rumors because he seems like an inevitable DH situation

it's ridiculous what J.D. Martinez did in only 119(!) games (45 home runs, 104 RBI, 85 runs, .376 OBP, etc) but uh this will not end well.

Pretty insane catfish story involving Baseball Prospectus and other MLB blogs:

https://deadspin.com/teen-girl-posed-for-8-years-as-married-man-to-write-abo-1820305588?rev=1510271110303

“If you’re going to make up an entire false identity, why would you make yourself into a shitty person?”

That story is completely insane.

Ohtani a-comin'

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/shohei-ohtani-to-be-posted/

I have Ohtani fever

it's spreading in all major markets

Scott Boras on J.D. Martinez: “High atop the MLB Empire rests the King Kong of Slug — a 50-point lead.” Boras said Martinez’s pace with DBacks would project to 70 HR and .741 SLG over 150-game season. Boras: “That’s how dominant J.D. Kong is.” @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 10, 2017

Someone is going to pay a lot for a 3.5 WAR player.

Tigers imo

i'm not sure there's anyone left who believes that and can afford that. maybe seattle? angels?

Could price himself a bit out of a long deal. Nelson Cruz seemed setup for a big payday and he ended up just taking that one year deal in Baltimore. I'd think JD Martinez is probably closer to Cruz than Boras would want to admit, but the agent only needs one GM to rook and it could happen.

Brisbee anticipates Ohtani's MLB career arc

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/11/10/16633930/shohei-ohtani-mlb-free-agency-predictions

The odds are definitely against him being a star hitter in MLB.

alex anthopoulos is yr new barves gm

i liked a little detail in a story i read about the GM meetings (forget which one). since so many teams now have front offices where the real dealmaking power/authority resides in a president/director of operations role (like the cubs, for example), the traditional photo op where all the GMs get together has become complicated. should theo epstein represent the cubs in the photo? or Jed Hoyer? who the fuck is Jed Hoyer? exactly

Derek Jeter says he hasn’t spoken to Giancarlo Stanton yet. “If there’s a reason to call, I’ll call.”

— Andy McCullough (@McCulloughTimes) November 15, 2017

re2pect to the captain for this heel turn

gabe kapler is intense

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/gabe-kapler-philadelphia-phillies-manager-boston-red-sox-experience-20171115.html

The following players will make https://twitter.com/williamfleitch/status/9308935814637608960 million or more in 2018:

Homer Bailey
Shin-Soo Choo
Adrian Gonzalez
Alex Gordon
Matt Kemp
Russell Martin
James Shields
David Wright

— Will Leitch (@williamfleitch) November 15, 2017

out of that group, most likely to be worth it (~2 WAR) is...

russell martin? steamer projects him for 2.5 WAR, at least.

wow i didn't notice how terrible Matt Kemp was this past year. not just a zero but a negative.

Yeah. Choo’s kind of in the same boat, and he’s under contract through 2020!

i beeeleeeve in Wright miracle healing

what baseball nicknames are less fitting than that of 'big game' james shields

Derek "Mr. November" Jeter

A's trade Ryon Healy to Seattle for Emilio Pagan

Homer Bailey had a few good starts coming back this year, he also got clocked a few times. He hadn't pitched much for a couple years and it's not like the Reds have the budget to buy more pitching, so they got to hope he can provide some production. I think it possible.

The #WhiteSox have acquired minor-league pitcher Thyago Vieira from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for international signing bonus pool money. pic.twitter.com/ZMxIHPEJcM

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) November 16, 2017

vieira throws super-hard, like chapman-level

guess the mariners are in on ohtani

Competitive Balance picks for 2018 @MLBDraft:
Round A
31 @Pirates
32 #Rays (Comp from '17)
33 @Orioles
34 @Padres
35 @Dbacks
36 @Royals
37 @Indians
38 @Rockies
39 @Cardinals
Round B
70 @Marlins
71 @Athletics
72 @RaysBaseball
73 @Reds
74 @Brewers
75 @Twinshttps://t.co/IGJfgyXC2G

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 16, 2017

what a moment

i wonder how many the tampa bay rays have tried to buy the @rays twitter handle

glt4dc: What would a Stanton trade to the Phillies look like where neither side hangs up? Is there such a trade?

Dave Cameron: If I’m the Phillies, I’m not prematurely taking myself out of the Harper/Machado running, and I’m eyeing a pitch to Trout in a few years. Trading for Stanton could screw all of that up. So they should just pass.

i don't really see what the giants have to offer for stanton other than the ability to pay his salary -- their farm system sucks, their players are old or also expensive -- but i guess the jeters are desperate to shed salary whether or not they get any assets in return

weird to me that you can pay $1.2B for a team then immediately cry poor and talk about how the economics demand drastically cutting payroll

re2pect to the captain for this heel turn

― mookieproof

He's the mirror universe HHH -- consummate good guy on the field, asshole executive once he puts on a suit.

Hou-hsiao Haien? Hubert H Humphrey?

Hunter Hearst Helmsley. Max Landis made a good film about his life if you want to know more.

the blue jays have acquired gift ngoepe from the pirates ;_;

mark appel dfa'd

weird to me that you can pay $1.2B for a team then immediately cry poor and talk about how the economics demand drastically cutting payroll

The McCourts "bought" the Dodgers almost entirely on credit during the Selig years. Selig-style "leadership" would dictate quietly changing the rules without ever admitting that anything was wrong with the process, I don't know if this happened though.

six braves international signings (so far) are being declared free agents, apparently more to come. this is rather more than a slap on the wrist

BREAKING: Star prospect Kevin Maitan is one of 12 Atlanta Braves minor leaguers expected to be declared a free agent after league investigation, sources tell Yahoo Sports. In addition, Braves will suffer significant restrictions in 2019-20 and 2020-21 international FA classes.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 21, 2017

Other penalties: The Braves will not be allowed to sign 14-year-old shortstop Robert Puason, the top player in the class of 2019, with whom they had illegally struck a deal. Atlanta also will lose a third-round draft pick in 2018 for offering inducements to a drafted player.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 21, 2017

coppolella banned for life

wow, MLB is not playing around

this seems harsh when it's universally accepted that everyone cheats (if maybe not *quite* so brazenly)

but completely burying a team is maybe the best way to ensure matters improve. and what the hell, i'm not a braves fan anyway

apparently their farm system is pretty stacked even without those guys.

yeah, it is

but it's still going to hurt down the road (and they don't get back the $20m they already spent on those dudes' bonuses)

They got rid of the god Rich Waltz.

This off-season is kind of waiting on Stanton to start, isn’t it

fister to rangers, 1 year, $4million with an option for 2019

Urooj:

Does MLB tell teams to consolidate their transactions to a certain point in the winter to create the most interest? Why isn’t anything happening right now?

Dave Cameron:

Ohtani.
That’s why the MLBPA was pushing for a shorter posting window.
They don’t want teams sitting around waiting for whether a player might or might not be posted, which is what is happening now.

micah johnson is this year's richie shaffer, i.e., the 41st man

in the last month he's gone from ATL to CIN to SF to TB all off waivers

^^^ sounds like Joey Gallo in the final stretch of my last fantasy league.

Black managers, no interviews (career winning pct)
Willie Randolph (.544)
Jerry Manuel (.507)
Cito Gaston (.526)
Ron Washington (.521)
Dusty Baker (.532)

2018 hires:
Alex Cora (1st)
Dave Martinez (1st)
Mickey Callaway (1st)
Gabe Kapler (1st)
Ron Gardenhire (.507)

— Full Dissident (@hbryant42) November 28, 2017

fffddfuuuucc

idk -- cora, martinez and kapler all seem extremely qualified and none are standard wasps

seems like maybe the more specific issue is the paucity of younger black managers/management candidates

Beltran interviewing for Yankee job

Keep it classy, Jeetz:

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/11/28/16713058/marlins-giancarlo-stanton-trade-ultimatum

Hensley Meulens just said on Dutch tv that he thinks "there's a great chance I'll be the new Yankees manager".

good luck hensl ey

I suspect that whoever gets the Yankees job will be someone cashman thinks he can push around

Cameron w/ first Abreu talk I've seen

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-trade-jackie-bradley-for-jose-abreu/

welington castillo to the white sox

olney says aaron "freaking" boone is the yankees' new manager

kruk/schilling out, jessica mendoza/aaron 'fucking' boone in on sunday nights

― mookieproof, Wednesday, January 13, 2016 10:53 AM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

pusharoundable?

Aledmys Diaz to Toronto

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-shortstop-aledmys-diaz-from-the-cardinals/

small chance it's related to stanton - it's down to giants or cardinals, and diaz leaving opens up a second spot on the 40-man

whatever they give up to get stanton will leave a gaping hole in their 40-man roster

I hope the Cards get Stanton as that dude is setup to be an injury riddled mess with maybe one good season in three.

hahahaha, yes

indians <3 michael martinez

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DQNsR1AX0AAKvsL.jpg:small

good to know the Indians operate the same as i I do when playing OOTP.

rhp miles mikolas to the cardinals, two years/~$15m

pretty interesting -- he was very good in japan the last three seasons but not so good in mlb stints before that

fangraphs on mikolas yesterday: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/theres-another-starting-pitcher-coming-over-from-japan/

It kills me that miles mikolas, mike maddux, and mike matheny are all going to be alone together at some point, and nobody’s gonna mention the elephant in the room because they’re all too cool to talk about it

hard to believe they let michael martinez get away

#Angels agree to deal with SS Kevin Maitan, who was released from #Braves contract due to international signing infractions. Maitan is No. 38 on @MLB's Top 100 Prospects list: https://t.co/szeqXRgUHU pic.twitter.com/9kZtKAfeBy

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) December 5, 2017

18yo RHP yefri del rosario, another of the guys freed from the braves, signed with kc

SourceS : Full trade offer from SF to Miami for Giancarlo Stanton.

Tyler Beede
Heliot Ramos (1st noted by @JoeFrisaro )
Chris Shaw
Christian Arroyo @jonmorosi had 250 mil 1st@clarkspencer had some combo of this deal also.

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) December 5, 2017

congrats giants

VIDEO: Psychic’s prediction: Giancarlo a Giant https://t.co/H0lSxWTuhN @FareedNBCS @AmyGGiants #SFGiants #MLBHotStove #GiancarloStanton pic.twitter.com/VIqcHEy4WX

— NBCSAuthentic (@NBCSAuthentic) December 6, 2017

I can't access this, but the URL/headline says it all.

http://theathletic.com/176599/2017/12/06/rosenthal-hes-53-and-hasnt-played-in-the-majors-since-2005-but-rafael-palmeiro-is-eyeing-a-comeback-and-redemption/

wow, ken rosenthal's name is in the headline and URL of every article he writes at the athletic. he's like the Oprah on the cover of O of the sportswriting world

tyler chatwood to the cubs, 3 years/$38m

:/ i guess they need a replacement for lackey but a three-year contract feels unnecessary

i don't know much about chatwood but 3 years was in line with what dave cameron predicted, at least. but yeah, tough to get excited about. still, he'll only be 28 next year, he'll probably earn his contract value and then some

The good on Tyler Chatwood:

- Will be just 28 next year
- Career 55% GB rate in front of that great Cubs infield
- The upside of playing in a normal stadium

The not-as-good:

- Durability: Never made more than 27 starts or thrown 160 innings.
- Control is iffy: Career BB/9 4.2.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 7, 2017

mariners have acquired dee gordon; no idea where he's supposed to play

outfield, apparently

mariners also got $1m in international bonus money . . . but it doesn't really sound like that's the sort of thing that would sway ohtani if he's set on a different team

related: https://deadspin.com/congrats-to-the-twins-for-cashing-in-on-two-al-west-tea-1821086852

I feel like moving Dee to CF isn’t the greatest idea.

mike fiers to the tigers

poor miggy

ohtani's an angel

maybe albert will retire after all to open up dh

cool

albert and ohtani would be a fun dh platoon imo. great way to ease him into hitting

awesome, was hoping it would be them

the thought of Ohtani to the Cubs makes me puke

albert and ohtani would be a fun dh platoon imo. great way to ease him into hitting

it's true, i'm sure albert remembers some things about hitting, if he's placed in advantageous situations

Was cheering for the Padres

feel like jerry dipoto should be fired

are the angels good enough with ohtahni + trout + whoever else they've got to contend? they don't really have any other pitching, right?

Richards looked good last year when he got back from his injury. Never saw Bridwell pitch but he had good numbers. Skaggs, Heaney, and Shoemaker are all better than their 2017 numbers imo

plus they've probably got a few more moves in them I'd think

don't forget how great Andrelton was last year too

simmons was great on my fantasy team :)

Skaggs, Heaney, and Shoemaker are all better than their 2017 numbers imo

beg to differ about shoemaker

#Cardinals are out on Stanton.
Won't waive his no trade. They are moving on.

— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 8, 2017

pic.twitter.com/2GeTfM4yzs

— Baseball's Best Fans (@BestFansStLouis) December 8, 2017

tough but fair

and no to the giants as well. sick burn

derek jeter and company are off to a great start

i can understand that the cardinals front office is frustrated, but releasing what is essentially a 'giancarlo stanton hates st. louis' statement is a dick move

if the Stanks get Stanton, Jeter is a mole

yes and it will also be you take our trash (ellsbury) and give us stanton win win right

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21717080/new-york-yankees-miami-marlins-giancarlo-stanton-trade-talks

Stanton had a killer year, but I don't think I would want that contract especially considering he has been injury prone. I also remember watching the Marlins play the Reds a few years ago and the dude seemed to be bored in the outfield and played into like three errors in a series. Kinda soured me on Stanton being all that in my eye.

I'd say this would take the Yanks out of being able to go big after Bryce Harper and really which of those two guys would you rather have for a decade? I'd bet on Harper myself. And this move probably means Harper could end up on the Red Sox.

centuries from now scientists will come to discover that the sixth extinction was inadvertently caused by an Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton high-five

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) December 9, 2017

Harper has been injury prone too!

The marketing possibilities for Judge and Stanton as the 21st century Bash Brothers are limitless, that should pay for Stanton's contract by itself.

I'm seriously starting to believe in the Jeter collusion theory though.

10:56am: Jon Heyman of FanRag reports that the Yankees will receive about $35MM from the Marlins in the deal, and confirms that they’ll send back Castro and prospects.

10:35am: A source close to Morosi confirms Rosenthal’s report that Stanton is expected to approve the trade.

once it was down to dodgers, cubs, yankees, or red sox, the result was going to make barf, so

barf

sorry, that should be the astros instead of the red sox. i wouldn't have barfed so hard at that, actually

In what universe do the Marlins have to square things up by giving money to the Yankees?

yeah i thought the yanks would have to eat some salary there, no top prospects afaict

the marlins lost all their leverage and then boldly persevered

The Marlin Way

it's a good weekend to be a Mariners/Orioles fan. there's always 2027.

:)

pic.twitter.com/wDlQUVJNiN

— Jim Weber (@JimMWeber) December 9, 2017

uuuggggghhhjhhhhhh congrats K3vin k

this is everyone’s fault for finding the 2017 yankees “kinda likable”

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) December 9, 2017

i will admit that i'm not all that excited about this/the circumstances are kind of lame/i'd much rather have ohtani

I suppose Judge is sliding to CF? Or Stanton will be the 1B?

Early rumors are that Judge, Stanton and Gardner will be in a sort of 3-way rotation between LF, RF, and DH.

Filler junk, but still--kind of premature.

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2017/12/09/263177528/help-us-rank-giancarlo-stanton-and-aaron-judge-among-the-greatest-home-run-duos-of-all-time

Somehow Aaron-Matthews aren't there (or Mays-McCovey).

Gardner rated pretty well in defence at LF last season, dunno if he can replicate it.

But yeah Yankees going hard on the super bullpens/home runs baseball trend. It won't be pretty.

that Baumann guy on the Ringer podcast tot nailed the coming Likable Yankees payback in October

just hoping for some broken legs and failed drug tests in NYY's future

Cameron:

Not every one of [the marginal AL] teams is going to hold a fire sale, but the incentive to hang around and try to win 86 games just got less enticing. There’s a good chance that, by spring training, there will be five clear-cut favorites in the AL for the postseason spots. A few teams will almost certainly keep pushing in on the short-term, but the days of the AL Wild Card contest being a race to 88 wins are probably over.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-american-league-is-becoming-the-national-league/

Yanks probably will need to trade for another pitcher and figure out if they are going to sign Frazier or not. I'd think if you wanted to Madden swap around their lineup Frazier would be handy as you could move him between third, first and start him in left if you wanted.

Cubs are the cash team that will be interesting to see what they do. I'd figure they would be looking for a power arm for the bullpen now that they got someone to take some starts. Does Schwarber really have a place on this team? They might want to use him and maybe try to build value to deal him during the season, but the guy would be a better match to dh or play first.

I'm also curious to see what KC does as they are going to have a pretty big generational turnover on their roster. Their free agents will end up somewhere and I'd figure they would be a team that might deal to get a bat as it seems like they could have some pitching to deal.

The Royals look like a team to me that the Reds might be able to work out a deal. I'd think Adam Duvall's bat would be a nice affordable player for them. I'd think the Twins might be interested in getting someone like Duvall too.

White Sox also got Jose Abreu to deal. I'd figure the Red Sox would be interested.

Baumann in a rage

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/12/9/16756778/giancarlo-stanton-trade-miami-marlins-new-york-yankees-bruce-sherman

I heard the Yankees are going to retire Stanton’s number at the beginning of the season.

lol

cardinals get so incredibly hot they can't contain themselves, sign luke gregerson and collapse in a pool of sweat; smoking cigarette now

2 years, $11 million, option for 2020

Considering how good the Marlins have been, even with changes in their front office, in developing players, how good they have won if they had a budget to pay them.

The list of good players down through this now third extinct level event of their 40 man roster is really adding up.

Then again, maybe the Marlins want to be the AAAA franchise team for the Yankees like the Kansas City A's were in the 50s and 60.

cubs signed brandon morrow

lolol

The Baltimore Orioles did not try to get Shohei Ohtani . . . out of principle https://t.co/9trDZTBRkE

— HardballTalk (@HardballTalk) December 11, 2017

a good follow-up on that: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-orioles-may-have-a-good-reason-for-not-pursuing-ohtani/

very interesting, thanks

it was nice little moment of likability for the yankees, but it feels kinda good to be hated again. at least one thing is back to normal in this crazy world.

yep lol

Remember when people said the Yankees were a blue collar team?

i think those were mostly the Sopranos saying that

teams can be fun one year and lame the next guys

i don't really get why people are mad at the yankees about this when they could be mad at the marlins

in my mind, fun team + giancarlo stanton = more fun team, but whatever

almost anything becomes more fun in joe girardi's absence

if the Yankees are fated to win a WS, I hope it's a sweep of the Cubs for NA's sake

(and i won't need to watch that one)

Matt Harvey for Jurickson Profar has been discussed. Nothing firm.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 11, 2017

i don't really get why people are mad at the yankees about this when they could be mad at the marlins

well yea the Marlins are terrible for this league and anyone who pays money to see them should be pissed. I'm just upset that the farfetched Double Agent Derek Jeter plan actually worked

I hear #Yankees have traded Mitchell and Chase Headley to the #Padres

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 12, 2017

don't really get why the padres would want to pay $13m for a 34yo 3B with no power (or acquire a below-replacement level reliever)

brian cashman is a fucking hypnotist

https://theathletic.com/182268/2017/12/12/rosenthal-orioles-shopping-manny-machado-but-the-star-also-wants-to-change-position/

Machado on the block, he wants to play SS, Orioles want two starting pitchers in return.

crap, sorry bout the paywall.

anyway, i can't think of anyone who would give up that sort of haul for one year of manny, unless they're gonna sign him long-term.

the only team i can think of that has the depth at starter and that kind of cash is the Dodgers, who have Corey Seager

beware, RSN

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-dave-dombrowski-overreaction-might-be-commencing/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DQ39QPtW0AAiK7O.jpg:small

ozuna to the cardinals

:) if they gave up alcantara or flaherty or hudson to get him.
:/ if they gave up two of the three to get him
:( if alex reyes is part of this deal

no way reyes is part of it

guessing any number of outfielders and maybe carson kelly, since matheny doesn't have the stones to sit yadi

no one has the stones to sit yadi. yadi will yell at you on instagram, it's not worth the hassle

apparently it's alcantara + three lesser minor leaguers? which seems like another piss-poor return, even if ozuna's only available for two seasons

yelich now huddled on his couch, crying softly

curious to see who the other three are, but yeah, on the face of it this seems like the marlins made a dum dum again. (of course, if ozuna regresses more than expected and alcantara ends up being a decent mid-rotation guy, then maybe i'm the dummy)

Kinsler to the Angels for a gently used scorebook.

EVERYONE is older now, Brian Kenny.

piscotty to oakland for two mid-level infield prospects

supposedly this was partly driven by the fact that piscotty's mom has ALS and lives in california, and the cardinals were doing him a solid

fernando rodney to the twins

xpost
yeah, i think that definitely played a role. as far back as last year they were trying to trade him to OAK (for sonny gray, at the time).
i like piscotty a lot, i think everyone is glad to see him move back home. hopefully beane won't trade him at the deadline!

The Mets have reportedly signed reliever Anthony Swarzak to a two-year deal worth $14 million.

The Mariners signed pitcher Juan Nicasio to a two-year deal worth $17 million.

The Astros have reportedly signed reliever Joe Smith for two-years.

astros also picked anthony gose, as a pitcher, in the rule 5 draft. which should be interesting, if terrifying for hitters

Source: Red Sox want to, trying to sign BOTH J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer.

Story: https://t.co/VULJL88r5y

— Michael Silverman (@MikeSilvermanBB) December 14, 2017

dombrowski.jpg

lmao "Joe Smith" such a perfect reliever name

fucking red sox

martinez at DH seems inevitable, but i wouldn't be so happy about landing the legendary eric hosmer at 1B for several years

i was p happy w 2-bags tbh

Mets in pursuit of Kipnis

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2017/12/14/16778884/mets-trade-rumors-new-york-jason-kipnis-indians-winter-meetings

freddy galvis to san diego for a double-a pitcher

Sources: phillies agree to deal with Carlos Santana

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 15, 2017

so i guess that makes rhys hoskins an outfielder?

zack cozart to the angels

looks like the Angels are all in, immediately

if only they could bring themselves to dfa prince albert

that would help

@JeffPassan
The consensus on Carlos Santana's $60M deal with the Phillies: It bodes awfully well for free agent hitters. Santana is four years older than Eric Hosmer. A seven-year, $175M ask no longer seems beyond the pale. Good news for Logan Morrison and other available first basemen, too.

i don't follow this logic. i'd much rather have three years of santana at $20m/year than seven years of hosmer at $25m/year, no matter what the age difference is

hosmer was at or below (fangraphs) replacement level in two of his last four seasons ffs. steamer has him at 2.6 WAR next season, meaning he *might* almost be worth $25m in the first year of his contract, god forbid we talk about the other six. (steamer has santana at 3.1 in 2018 fwiw)

Yankees and pirates are continuing to talk about Gerrit Cole. Clint Frazier would likely be part of package, if it happens.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 15, 2017

oh good

I like that deal for Santana for the Phillies. He's a fairly durable and consistent player. I was thinking the only drag might be that he was the DH quite a bit with Cleveland but he played 140 games at first last year.

Signing Cozart to play third seems kinda weird, but the Angels should have pretty good infield defense

Matt Kemp to the Dodgers for Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, and Charlie Culberson!

desperate for that valuable Kemp-sized -1.3 WAR.

on top of that,

Sources: Kemp unlikely to play for #Dodgers. Strong candidate to be traded or released.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 16, 2017

weird

I don't understand anything about this game beyond what actually happens on the field.

idgi. dodgers save a tiny bit of money but some of those guys might conceivably have been useful next year

40 man maybe

also CC back to the yanks pending a lol physical

matt moore to the rangers, who i guess really want to throw nothing but lefties against the astros and angels next year

it's all likely about the luxury tax, according to mlbtraderumors

however, idgi either tbh

This has to be one of the strangest trades ever, even if it is a luxury tax thing. There wasn't a single other MLB team willing to take on any of those players in exchange for a minor prospect and some salary relief?

If the Jays are hell-bent on acquiring a washed-up outfielder in his early '30s, I think I'd rather have Kemp than Carlos Gonzalez.

Cargo can play his position, at least. Kemp’s defense is so bad that he has to be an outstanding hitter to make up for it, and he’s been merely slightly above average for a while now

I look at those typically awful home-road splits for Gonzalez, though, and I think I'd rather stick the non-fielder in left and hope for the best. It's not much of a choice.

Atlanta is going to get rid of Adrian Gonzalez. I wonder if he is done or could bounce back if healthy etc.

i'm sure someone will take a flyer on him when he's dfa'd

hope it's the red sox

I was thinking the Tribe might be an interesting destination for Adrian Gonzales.

Gallardo back to the Brewers was unexpected

Sullivan on Kemp trade

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-trade-debt-to-braves-in-exchange-for-debt/

xp maybe he was real cheap and they figured they could get him back to halfway decent form? worked for Jeffress, I guess. glad to see him back but *looks at stats from last two years*...yikes

Is Mitch Moreland worth $13 million for two years? Karl Malone can break that down by WAR--he seems eminently replaceable to me for a lot less money than that.

he's a league-average hitter and reasonably good fielder -- totally worth it for that kind of money, if he stays healthy

also it would suggest that they're out on hosmer, which is probably a good thing in itself

With Red Sox cash, they can afford to take Moreland around as just a bench player for another year, which he would be handy if expensive.

Not sure how much a market is Hosmer really going to have? Most of the money teams already got a guy at first.

i don't know, he's league-average hitter when you compare him to all position players, but he's below average when you just look at first basemen (25th out of 28 qualifying 1B last year by wRC+)

i do think it makes sense to consider the amount of WAR/$ when evaluating contracts, but it's not everything. theoretically you could create an entire team full of players that are a relative bargain, but if they're all 2.0 WAR players it won't be enough to make the playoffs, even if each of them is playing at league minimum. i definitely don't want hosmer on the cardinals and think some team is going to get screwed, but maybe he makes a little more sense for a team like the red sox that can afford to overpay? he probably won't come close to "earning" his contract, but he's probably also a good bet to outperform mitch moreland, right? i don't know

I was also thinking he was less than league-average when you consider position and park. (And a 1.0 oWAR means a game above replacement level, no? Which must be below league-average.) Throw in his age, and that seems like a very generous contract.

But, as pointed out above, the Red Sox can throw as much money around as they want.

I figure the Red Sox are mostly signing Moreland to start around 100 games and then try other things at first. If the RedSox could get Todd Frazier to play supersub, that would be a decent player to make up a platoon at first and would be handy to user elsewhere.

I think the big thing is I doubt Boston will put any other big long deals out probably leaving open to get in the sweepstakes next free agent year.

Jose Abreu is still out there and if the Red Sox don't get him now, they could always pick him up later. White Sox will probably try to move him at some point, earlier the better I would figure.

So did they buy well? Smyly is money team gamble considering he probably won't pitch this year.
The rest of these guys I really don't know.

12/7/17 Chicago Cubs signed free agent RHP Tyler Chatwood.
12/12/17 Chicago Cubs signed free agent RHP Brandon Morrow.
12/12/17 Chicago Cubs signed free agent LHP Drew Smyly.
12/16/17 Chicago Cubs signed free agent RHP Steve Ciscek

morrow and ciscek seem like good moves. i don't know much about chatwood

Cubs might be hoping for an mini-Arrieta situation there, his WAR numbers are good and his home/road splits indicate a guy whose overall line has been misleading.

chatwood has promise, away from coors. he also has command issues

smyly won't be pitching for another year bc he just had tommy john, so he's an investment at this point. i'm not sure about chatwood, but he can't really be much worse than john lackey was this past season. morrow and cishek make sense because the bullpen was weak last year too. i'm really hoping they're still working on landing another starting pitcher bc the back-up plan is mike montgomery, who is fine, but not an ideal replacement for arrieta. i thought they were working on getting alex cobb but when i checked in on that yesterday i saw stories saying that his price had escalated and so the cubs might as well work on getting darvish instead.

Not a trade or a signing, but a nice story:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21808118/cole-hamels-texas-rangers-wife-heidi-donate-94-million-mansion-charity

Reds don't look like they got much going on, really their roster is mostly set. I kinda think they need to get another starter one that you know you are going to get 30 starts out of, but those cost more than they can afford.

Looking at the rumors, I figure this talk of signing Craig Stammen out of the Padres bullpen seems kinda likely. Stammen has the injury discount, I'd figure he wants 2 years or more even at 33. The guy is from outside of Dayton and the Reds got a history of getting guys from the general area, so it seems like the kinda guy they might want. If he is as good as last year, could be handy and make their bullpen a bit deeper but we are not talking a brash bros. type signing here.

I got to think the Reds would be ok with dealing Billy Hamilton. He seems to be the player getting the trade rumors. Jessie Winker seems ready to hit in the bigs, thing is that he is really more of a left fielder type. I'm guessing if they do deal Hamilton, the idea will be to use Scott Schebler and rookie Phil Ervin in a mix. Ervin is a true CF, Schebler plays one on TV.

BREAKING: #Rays have traded Longoria to #Giants

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 20, 2017

rays get denard span (which i guess keeps the giants under the luxury tax), top sf prospect christian arroyo, two low-level prospects

longoria is great, but he's also 32, coming off his worst season, and owed $81m over the next five seasons. and i don't think the giants really needed to get older

slippery rock legend matt adams to the nats

Not too many chances to see a true franchise player--i.e., the franchise's best player ever--traded.

@DCameronFG

Matt Adams got 1/$4M to be a backup. Eric Hosmer is probably getting $100M+. So I’ll just share these career numbers and walk away.

what're the odds?

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mets-shouldnt-blow-this-opportunity/

sandy alderson extended btw

The Mets have made a front office hire, naming former GM Omar Minaya special assistant to Sandy Alderson.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) December 22, 2017

I'm kinda thinking the Giants are going to sign a couple more players. The thing that came up in the stuff I was reading with them trying to trade for Billy Hamilton was that they just don't have many prospects at the AA or AAA level that have much trade value.

Looking at who is out there, I would think the two free agents that might solve their issues would be maybe signing Lorenzo Cain to play center field and maybe pick up Lance Lynn. I'd think Lynn's pitching style would work in SF, as he would have that big outfield to get fly ball outs. Cain would get them a good glove with someone that can cover some ground out there.

steeling myself for the pirates sending gerrit cole to the yankees and *not* getting gleyber torres in return

Are the giants trying to be really good in 2018? I’m confused by their course of action so far this off-season.

iirc someone said the acquisition of longoria pushed their expected wins to 75

gleyber would be a lot to ask for in return for cole imo

that may be so, but fuck the yankees getting the NL MVP and a frontline starter without giving up anything of significance

meanwhile in queens

Words I’ve heard from Mets people today regarding Fred Wilpon’s decision to bring back Omar Minaya despite reservations within the current front office:

“embarrassing”

“stupid”

“undermining”

“insulting"

— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) December 22, 2017

Minaya's regime did develop some of the players who won them the pennant 2 years ago

that still doesn't nec mean this was a good move

Reds signed this guy or maybe he is wanted for questioning.

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/mlb/players/full/31556.png&w=350&h=254

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/images/players/head_shot/453172.jpg

why does he keep doing that

"I ate his liver in Skyline Chili and an ice cold bottle of Hudepohl."

Who was that due on the O’s? You know who I’m talking about

...dude

Ex-Slint roadie

Wade Davis to Rockies for 3 years, $52 million

Wow

godspeed to all involved

Damn, ok then

amazing

In his age 25-27 seasons, Eric Hosmer slashed .294/.359/.463 with 68 home runs. In his age 25-27 seasons, Wally Joyner slashed .287/.352/.454 with 63 home runs.

— David Laurila (@DavidLaurilaQA) January 3, 2018

wally joyner was the matthew broderick of major league baseball

ok you can't just leave it like that

http://img.ecomplatform.com/scs/images/products/116/large/wally_joyner_autographed_8x10_photo_padres_psa_dna_certified_p148288.jpg

little big league

Putting it in less vague terms: ZiPS projects 10 pitchers on the Yankees 40-man as relievers. Their projected ERA+ in descending order: 177, 159, 146, 145, 136, 129, 125, 120, 112, 112.

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 3, 2018

yanks bullpen should be good

Eric Hosmer, coveted all winter by the San Diego Padres, now has another surprising small-market team going head-to-head for his services.

Yes, his old team.

The Kansas City Royals have offered Hosmer a franchise-record seven-year, $147-million contract, persons close to Hosmer told USA TODAY Sports on the condition of anonymity since negotiations are still undergoing.

Hosmer also has a seven-year, $140 million offer from the Padres, people close to Hosmer say, which is $1 million less a year than the Royals’ deal.

this does not seem like a good small market move

he's been one of the most durable players in baseball since he came in the league so there's maybe a better than average chance that this isn't one of those long term deals where the guy is a shell of himself physically like halfway into it (especially when compared to 1B specifically). but idk how you feel good at all about giving a guy who has put up 2 replacement level seasons in the last 4 years that kind of money. it feels like the sequel to the jason heyward contract waiting to happen.

and even the heyward contract in the grand scheme of how these things can go... i'm still more optimistic about his deal than like jacoby ellsbury or shin shoo choo. nonetheless...

Barves lookin to pick off the last Marlins

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/1/3/16847768/atlanta-braves-trade-rumors-free-agency-christian-yelich-jt-realmuto-miami-marlins-hot-stove

the nonrush to sign free agents could be here to stay

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-teams-have-learned-to-wait-on-free-agents/

The best thing I can say about a Hosmer contract is that by the end, it might not look so bad due to continuing salary inflation throughout MLB. But you could say that about all contracts, so...yeah. Take him back, KCR!

I didn’t realize the braves rebuild was already in the go for it stage?

the royals have given LHP richard lovelady a non-roster invite to spring training

I wonder what the point is where the money the owners save through collusion is cancelled out by a loss of fan interest in the sport after a dead offseason

— Patrick Dubuque (@euqubud) January 9, 2018

idk, i don't think fans care nearly as much as writers with nothing to write about do

anyway, the pirates are sending gerrit cole to houston momentarily

yeah, i agree. only the diehards about this stuff, and they'll be raring to go for spring training, regardless

only the diecards ^care^ about this stuff

oh no, don't diecards

i should just go back to bed

not so fast?

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gerrit-cole-may-or-may-not-become-an-astro/

Weird story

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22027027/mlb-agent-jason-wood-fired-reportedly-filmed-clients-showering

jay bruce back to the mets (3 years, $39 million)

Christ

whatever

i guess the 'transformed' flyball approach is key

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-bruce-is-fine-and-so-is-his-contract/

Mets trying to reassemble 2015 team?

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2018/1/12/16883488/mets-lucas-duda-rumors-free-agency-infield-new-york

Cole to the Astros, supposedly for realsies this time. for waaaaayyy less than i would have expected, if this is correct: Musgrove and Colin Moran.

looks like there's two more throw-ins going to Pitt – but those two are the main pieces.

that is a shitty return

ffs

oh good, some 25yo quad-a guys

An array of thoughts on the Gerrit Cole trade from 4 people whose baseball opinions I respect. pic.twitter.com/oSQdt4HAbf

— James Santelli, An All-Nonsense Guy (@JamesSantelli) January 14, 2018

Story Musgrove

oof. at least they didn't deal him to the cubs (who they were apparently talking with re: cole)

what happened to the Bucs and their Big Data?

plus now pirates fans can say "get a brain, moran" after he messes up! you can't put a $ figure on that kind of fan service

McCutchen to the Giants.

idk what the giants are doing

My condolences to Pirates fans, who like us are watching their championship team be scattered to the winds, only without the championship. Or even an NLCS appearance.

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) January 15, 2018

From 2013 through 2015, the Royals went 270-216 (.556), with 1 division title and 1 wild card.

From 2013 through 2015, the Pirates went 280-206 (.576), with 3 wild cards (all at home).

There but for the grace of God go us.

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) January 15, 2018

selling tickets. xpost

I know the Pirates did not get much from Cole and McCutchen* but what is the situation with prospect/young players? I have been under the uninformed impression that they got some good talent coming up and that they are not too far away from perhaps contending.

*making that assumption because the Giants have nothing in return to give.

Nationals signed Howie Kendrick to a two-year deal.

The Mets have agreed to sign free-agent first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, pending a physical, according to USA TODAY Sports.

MLB Network insider Jon Heyman also reported a deal was pending. The club has not confirmed an agreement.

Gonzalez, 35, was traded from the Dodgers to the Braves in December as part of a five-player deal, and then released. As a result, the Mets would only need to pay him the league minimum salary of $545,000 in 2018, with the Braves responsible for the rest of the $21.5 million owed to him for the 2018 season under his previous contract.

https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/mets-agree-to-deal-with-adrian-gonzalez/c-264684246

diving deep on the Bucs

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-pirates-are-forced-to-value-players/

28 days to pitchers & catchers. No landing spot yet for Darvish, Arrieta, JDM, Hosmer, Cain, Moustakas, Lucroy, Lynn, Cobb, Escobar (x2), LoMo, CarGo, Greg Holland, Chris Tillman, Ichiro and approximately 185 other guys who were on major league rosters in 2017

no collusion, no collusion, you're the colluder

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37107/rubbing-mud-evidence-price-fixing-far

https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseballs-economic-system-might-broken-224638354.html

It definitely does seem like the draft and young player development is becoming more a conversation of fans.

Teams are in on the numbers and just don't want to give up young, cheap talent up for anything. That's where you win or lose. I thought it was interesting even in doing those couple of trades, the Giants still held on to a couple of their top prospects.

If that is all Pittsburgh or the Rays can get for players of that caliber, can't really blame a team like the Reds for not dealing some of their topped out players. You can't get any decent return and it's just cheaper to let them play and maybe try again in July. They got Duvall, Hamilton and Scooter tied up for 2-3 years still to deal them at another point.

The local TV deals pretty much will keep baseball from evening out things money wise. Unless cord cutting causes the contracts to bomb, I don't see any change to this anytime soon.

^^ this

It's been said countless times, but front offices are smarter now and won't pay big money in free agency for one-dimensional players, especially on or near the wrong side of age 30. Mark Trumbo led MLB in homers in 2016 but went unsigned for most of the offseason last year. That would have been unthinkable even three years earlier. Teams don't want to get stuck with the Ryan Howard/Josh Hamilton 4-5 year disaster deals, which is why the market is so cool on JD Martinez and Eric Hosmer.

But I don't think that teams are less interested in winning than ever before, as Passan's article implies. MLB has never been a parity league. Right now the gap between the best and worst teams might be higher than in most years, but multiyear rebuilds are nothing new.

Addison Reed to Twins for 2 years

(xpost) Heard on the way home that the Red Sox offered, or are about to offer, $100m/5 years to J.D. Martinez. The Red Sox and the two or three other usual suspects still get to play around with Monopoly money. (Maybe that's less than what they would have thrown at him three years ago, though.)

more on the cold stove:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mlbpa-has-no-leverage/

i agree that no team wants to wind up with late-era albert pujols, and that all the teams are smarter about paying big bucks for guys in their 30s. but there's a difference between being smart and being cheap, and with the staggering amounts of money teams are making and are worth, crying poor is bullshit.

But I don't think that teams are less interested in winning than ever before

with revenue sharing, mlbam money, artificial salary cap, free stadiums, etc., teams' financial success is less tied to their on-field performance than ever. i don't think the pirates or a's or marlins, among others, prioritize winning very much at all. in europe, those clubs would have been relegated to lower leagues by now, but that's not how things work here.

. . . Nutting is a billionaire who owns a newspaper conglomerate and is the chairman of a ski resort in Pennsylvania. Keep in mind that, before the 2017 season, Forbes valued the Pirates as being worth $1.25 billion. Keep in mind that the Pirates are revenue sharing recipients, and that their $109 million payroll in 2017 was 25th in the league, some $50 million below the MLB average. Keep in mind that, in 2010, the AP reported that Pittsburgh—which opened that season with the lowest payroll in baseball at just $39.4 million—made $29.4 million in ’07 and ’08. And keep in mind that, at some point this year, every MLB owner, including Nutting, will receive $50 million from the league, no strings attached, as part of its sale of a majority stake in BAMTech to Disney (on top of the $33 million each already received in 2016 for a minority stake sale).

Does that sound like a team that needs to be counting every penny, or that can’t find a way to put the pieces around McCutchen and Cole to compete for a World Series? Those two players will make just under $22 million combined in 2018, a pittance in today’s market, yet Pittsburgh decided that was a financial bridge too far. And from the way Nutting makes it sound, nothing would have changed that. A team worth a billion dollars and with nearly $300 million in revenue last year chooses to hide behind cries of poverty. A billionaire complains about how the game is rigged against him and chooses to cut payroll, deal away stars, and play next season on the cheap (the Pirates have a mere $70 million on the books for 2018). In the battle between the fans and the bottom line, the money won.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/16/pittsburgh-pirates-andrew-mccutchen-gerrit-cole-bob-nutting

most of the individual moves the pirates made over the last several years made sense, e.g. giving up in 2016 and dealing mark melancon to get felipe rivero. but the grand strategy behind them was helplessness. they had a window and did almost nothing to maintain it -- they never traded for a zobrist or a cueto, they never signed any decent free agents (sorry david freese and john jaso), whenever they bought low and rehabilitated guys' careers, those guys immediately went elsewhere.

mike ilitch eventually drove his team into the ground with bad contracts, but he definitely wanted to win. these other teams don't seem too interested

with revenue sharing, mlbam money, artificial salary cap, free stadiums, etc., teams' financial success is less tied to their on-field performance than ever.

Yeah, but there have always been bad teams with cheap owners. In the old days when the team was bad, fewer fans would buy tickets to the games (when that was the main source of revenue), which gave the owners an excuse to cut salaries and trade players. Lower revenue meant lower costs, and the owners still made money. It's bullshit, but it's not new. It's just a multibillion dollar business now instead of a multimillion dollar one. But there's no real way to force an owner to spend money, it's just the way it is. I say this as someone who fully shares in your frustration, seeing how the Jays are also owned by a cheap ass media conglomerate (who also own the network that broadcasts the games to the entire country). Toronto has a metropolitan population of about six million, but ownership still claims we're a small market team who can't compete with Boston and New York.

I have to say that the league offices also have to share the blame here, say what you want about the NFL, but they have a league-first mentality and if you win, they'll promote the shit out of you (and the media happily follows along). Despite the record profits, revenue sharing, and franchise valuations, in baseball there's still this mentality that only about 6-10 teams really matter on a national level, and the rest are local chumps that nobody wants to see playing in the World Series. So I can kind of understand why teams are cheap sometimes when the growth potential beyond your local market isn't there.

Ha remember when they gave 240 millions // 10 years to Albert Pujols lol.

I think a lot of GMs and owners are going to look really bad when their rebuilding don't yield a Bryant or a Correa. There is only so much of these really good prospects to go around, especially considering some of them are already snatched by the contending teams. The Church of the Young Player, as Brisbee baptized, is not going to work for everybody like it did for the Cubs and Astros.

I keep thinking of the White Sox who had 3 players that are good enough to build around: Sale, Quintana and Eaton. They got really good returns for trading these. + they have Abreu that they might ship at any moment. We all love Moncada and Jimenez but still what are the odds they produce has many wins in their first 5 seasons as Sale and Quintana did? Tim Anderson was a top 20 prospect if I recall? He projects 82 wrc+ at age 25. I understand that Anderson is a draft pick, not a trade, but my larger point is that some GM gave an incentive to known asshole owners like Reinsdorf to rip their rosters for profit. And that perhaps the next competitive advantage is what the Giants have been doing, getting 3-war caliber veterans players for prospect they see no value for.

randal grichuk to blue jays for dominic leone and conner greene

jays fans, i hope you really enjoy watching people swing at offspeed pitches in the dirt

on the plus side, grichuk is good for 25+HR and it's really fun to say "randal!" in the most ridiculously exaggerated texan accent as possible when he does good

also he's the kind of player who has a chance of turning in a 2013 colby rasmus kind of season, but just as equally could be a perma-4th OF the rest of his career

whoa Colby Rasmus has accumulated 20 WAR through his career, which is about twice as much as i would have thought.

I don't know about Grichuk--that lifetime OBP looks scary.

How hot is Dominic Leone in person?

obv not Grichuk hot

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/36/92/02/369202cf55804cad8900f1413c5e10c4.jpg

Cardinals seem to have a new pro outfielder prospect every two years, so I figure they got someone that can do what Grichuk does and maybe more probably ready to go.

dominic leone

congrats to ilxor and musician dominique leone, glad she finally realized her dreams of becoming a professional baseball player

xpost
they do - among others, tyler o'neill is another grichuk - lots of strikeouts, big biceps, lots of home runs. they also have a couple another randy (Arozarena) who could be really good

sorry, just one other randy (arozarena), not "a couple another"

that's when dillon gee
takes a one-year deal with chunichi
on an island he didn't live in

Dillon Gee on MLB Network: "I appreciate you having me on, but I think it sums up the Hot Stove season that you have me on".

— Ben Yoel (@Ben_Yoel) January 22, 2018

the Darvish derby

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-rumors-brewers-make-offer-to-star-pitcher-yu-darvish/

randal grichuk to blue jays for dominic leone and conner greene

pandering move to toronto's large ukrainian-canadian community

If he doubles his walk rate, he could be more than top-shelf eye candy.

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/andrew-mccutchen-thank-you-pittsburgh/

;_;

cubs signed catcher chris giminez to a minor league deal, which is interesting only in that he has caught both yu darvish and alex cobb before

just to pass the time, my all time favorite grichuk and matheny moment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVeNWn6IkYc

Jeff Sullivan polled fans on their team's owners, and you should probably be able to guess the bottom two.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/here-are-the-complete-team-ownership-ratings/

BREAKING

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/breaking-royals-sign-ryan-goins-to-minor-league-deal/

METS sign . . . jose reyes

xxp how could a Marlins fan possibly vote anything higher than a 1. is Jeets paying people off or what

#Mets in agreement with Jose Reyes on one-year contract, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic. Reyes returning with understanding he will fill utility role. Mets still looking for regular second baseman.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 25, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7yePNyz-nc

yelich traded to the brewers

awesome. I assume we gave up Brinson, or is that not really clear yet?

There are some Reds fans going to have a conniption on that news as it seems on a couple sites that's the only player between them and the rebirth of the Big Red Machine, even though the team ERA was like 5 last year.

or is that not really clear yet?

it's not clear but that's the impression that i get /bosstones

if the marlins traded w/ that front office they definitely got fleeced

Marlins get Brinson and Diaz

Is that a good return?

The #Brewers have acquired OF Christian Yelich from Miami in exchange for OF Lewis Brinson, OF Monte Harrison, INF Isan Diaz and RHP Jordan Yamamoto.

prospects #1, #6, and #14 according to mlb.com (yamamoto not listed)

harrison is keith law's #85 overall prospect

cain to the brewers

5-year, $80M, physical pending

uh whooooa

sheesh. their outfield just got a lot better

Brewers goin SuperTeam

well maybe not

before today's moves, fangraphs projected them at 75 wins for 2018, which did admittedly seem a little low.

lol the marlins got more for yelich than they did for stanton

So is moving Braun the next step for the Brewers? Seems kinda odd signing Cain for 5 years right after getting Yelich and considering they got that guy Domingo Santana.

Their starting rotation is still pretty funky and not that scary.

once they get Yu Darvish though

Jeff Sullivan:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-are-here/

brewers look pretty scary to me now as a cubs fan, they were already first in the nl central for half of last season and were in contention until right near the end. meanwhile the cubs haven't done much to improve yet this offseason.

and i was impressed by their young rotation

these are the steps the pirates refused to take. may or may not work out, but at least the brewers are going for it. totally rooting for them

this is kinda crazy: free-agent camp

Players believe the value dispute between the sides will last long enough that a number have discussed the possibility of staging a free agent training camp to mimic their typical spring work, according to sources.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-players-teams-digging-protracted-standoff-despite-lorenzo-cains-80-million-deal-060605804.html

that is insane, never will happen

Nelson/Davies/Anderson gives the Brewers three solid cheap starters, they obviously need to make a move or two yet. Guessing they'll flip Santana, but hold on to Phillips, then hopefully make one more big FA signing (Darvish!?!?)

Santana looks like he's about to emerge into a 40 HR guy. Yelich could be a top 5 NL ofer. Cain is extremely good, reminds me of Zobrist in how he flies under the radar with his all-around skill set. could probably shift Braun to 1B w/Thames as an option against righties (unless they move Braun.) Not sure what Broxton's status is, but he doesn't seem like a bad 4th OFer. Vogt at catcher, Arcia/Villar up the middle, Travis Shaw in his age 28 season should still be vv good.

i guess some of those guys could disappoint or collapse. and the rotation is still iffy.

as a Cubs fan I'm not terrified of them but I think they have a very good shot at taking the Central. they seem playoff ready at the very least.

you think they'd flip Santana? i haven't been keeping up, maybe there are issues there, but he's only 24!

*25 rather

he's not projected to be so good, but the decrease in strikeout rate kinda makes me think he's an emerging star. that said, you've still got 5 outfielders + Brett Phillips, makes sense to try to get a good starter for one of them and I don't think Broxton will get it done. I'd be more keen to offload Braun but IDK if anyone's gonna want him

braun is a 10/5 guy, which complicates their ability to move him

i'd guess either broxton or santana is going to be traded, and probably pretty soon

this is one of the guys miami picked up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaSwX9pJsI0

September 12, 2017	Minnesota Twins designated SS Engelb Vielma for assignment.
September 14, 2017	San Francisco Giants claimed SS Engelb Vielma off waivers from Minnesota Twins.
November 20, 2017	Philadelphia Phillies claimed SS Engelb Vielma off waivers from San Francisco Giants.
December 11, 2017	Pittsburgh Pirates claimed SS Engelb Vielma off waivers from Philadelphia Phillies.
January 18, 2018	San Francisco Giants claimed SS Engelb Vielma off waivers from Pittsburgh Pirates.
January 26, 2018        Baltimore Orioles acquire SS Engelb Vielma from San Francisco Giants in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Engelb has passed his sellb ydate

My guess is Santana goes, but I think the team will probably keep him rather than sell low on him. The extra OFs gives the team some cover to ration Braun and Cain's playing time.

Where they really need an upgrade is 2B. Villar was atrocious last year, defensively and offensively.

Wouldn't they be selling high on Santana? He was terrific last year.

Yeah he was great, and they don't believe his success was a fluke. But I think some teams are going to try to put in low ball offers on him because of the narrative the Brewers have too many outfielders and have to move some of them. They were already struggling to get fair offers on him at winter meetings, and that was before their outfield became even more crowded.

iirc the giants were interested in santana (and still need an outfielder, even with mccutchen). not sure they have anything the brewers would want apart from joe panik tho

Francisco Rodriguez signs minor league deal with #Phillies that will pay him https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/957426296799223808.5 million if he makes the big leagues per @JonHeyman

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 28, 2018

ICYMI

The Major League Baseball Players Association is investigating whether to file grievances against the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates for circumventing rules in the collective-bargaining agreement that call for teams to put revenue-sharing dollars back into baseball operations, sources familiar with the situation told Yahoo Sports.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa-looking-pirates-marlins-spending-habits-174042989.html

There is still Bunches of players still not signed. Got to wonder when the bow is going to break and sign players.

There is about enough available free agents out there to make a decent club.

Royals have traded LHP Ryan Buchter and DH/1B Brandon Moss to Oakland for right-hander Jesse Hahn and Minor League right-hander Heath Fillmyer.

deck chairs shuffled

Opens a spot for Hosmer.

Buchter was really solid on the Padres. A's bullpen isn't too bad.

jesse hahn is kinda decent

buchter is the only useful player involved; maybe it's worth taking on an $8m commitment to brandon moss to get him but it seems odd

despite watching brandon moss for an entire year, for some reason i can not imagine his face being anything else but exactly like mark mcgwire's. i'll look him up for a second and remember, but right now it's the weirdest thing

Matt Albers to Brewers btw

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22255478/matt-albers-agrees-2-year-5-million-deal-milwaukee-brewers

eno out (presumably to an as-yet-unnamed team)

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/thanks-for-reading

Fangraphs hemorrhaging staff

yeah, they really are. not just any staff but some of their best writers

O'S HIRE SZYMBORSKIS CATS AS ASSISTANTS TO THE GM

"I will still see you around, but not on these pages." Sounds like maybe Sarris will just be writing elsewhere?

Mookie Betts won his arbitration case against the Red Sox on Wednesday, meaning the star outfielder will make $10.5 million in 2018.

The Red Sox had offered Betts $7.5 million.

nice

Welcoming @Angels star @Andrelton Simmons to @wembleystadium this evening! 👋#COYS pic.twitter.com/RAjstPx2bW

— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) January 31, 2018

andrelton to spurs

Chicago Cubs Co-Owner Todd Ricketts Named New RNC Finance Chairman

next GOP memo controversy will center on Kyle Schwarber

A most welcome development: MLB announces that all major-league ballparks will have protective netting extending to at least the far ends of both dugouts by Opening Day.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 1, 2018

last ballgame i went to with my kids we were on third base line. i brought my glove with me, which my kids thought was cool, but they didn't know it was so that i could stop the ball hitting their face if necessary. every LH batter and my ears pricked up like fuckin Scooby doo

from the head of the CAA agency

A rising tide... @MLB_PLAYERS pic.twitter.com/jwkoiiI0yt

— Brodie Van Wagenen (@bvanwagenen) February 2, 2018

perhaps the 1200 alpha males at the pinnacle of their profession should just physically beat the shit out of the 30 owners

Should happen across all professions tbh

^^

"Two men enter boardroom, only one leaves."

BULLPEN CARTS

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/2/2/16964690/mlb-bullpen-cart-return-2018

Good job Miami

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article198019154.html

we have the billionaires we deserve.

happy marlins 25th anniversary

Well gee he lost 140 million of his own money on the sale, what more does the greedy Miami public want?

Bartolo Colon: minor-league deal with Texas

...and now the rest of the dominoes will fall

lol

are you talking about pizza shops in the Dallas-Ft Worth region?

LOL

nice

Scott:

I’m getting pretty annoyed at the lack of free agent signings. Should I be blaming the owners/front offices for being greedy, or the players for negotiating a bad CBA? Also, the NBA guarantees the players a certain % of revenue (I think close to a 50-50 split). The players should really bargain hard for something similar.

Jeff Sullivan:
There’s blame to go all around, and don’t let the agents out of your sights. Agents haven’t kept up, by and large, with the changing game

They’re just not very good at negotiating realistically with teams, how they’re presently operating

I’d blame front offices the least — every single one of them wants the team to get better. Owners have far more to do with it

It’s not the Dodgers’ front office’s fault they’re trying to stay under the threshold. That’s on ownership

One angle that hasn't been mentioned that in think could be lurking in the background is the local TV rights money maybe shrinking with all the cable cutting.

i thought those numbers had been getting bigger recently?

Jeff Sullivan, again:

This isn’t collusion. This is teams being smart enough to react to the circumstances. It’s a huge, huge deal that certain big spenders are trying to stay under the tax. Now, whether they actually need to do that — that could be argued. But that’s the operating philosophy, and it’s having an effect. And then you have potential big spenders at the other end, with bad present rosters. What’s their incentive to, say, sign Jake Arrieta? What would he do for the Tigers?

Free agency has always been a bad investment, efficiency-wise. Money needs to find a way to get to players before they get to FA age. It’s more urgent now than ever.

And, of course, beneath all of this, money really needs to find a way to get to the minor leagues. Don’t overlook that those are the players in the most financial peril.

darwin barney also has a minor league deal with the rangers

i don't know enough about all this to shout collusion, and it probably isn't actual collusion, but even if there are logical reasons why no one's getting signed, it's a little suspicious that every single team arrived at those reasons at the exact same time

Cubs and Astros winning the World Series with teams built on young, controllable talent might have been a catalyst for this.

That Fangraphsesque baseball wisdom has spread universally across the industry, well... kind of about time?

i'd still think there'd be at least a couple of old-school teams going crazy on free agents, but who knows.

That's my thought too. I remember Posnanski arguing, quite convincingly, that nearly every single megabucks FA contract has been bad. I figured the fact that teams were continuing to do them spoke more about potential merchandise/ticket sales and GMs trying to keep their jobs than it did teams actually trying to find value in these guys. But it's still very weird that nothing's happened yet for *any* team...

todd frazier to the mets, finally

I think it's a weird perfect storm of events -- the luxury tax, next year's killer free agent class, the super teams being set for next year without needing to sign new guys, smarter front offices -- but it's not collusion.

The cable deals have been going up but they have possibly peaked and from one article i read the whole thing could collapse ugly because of cable chord cutting. ESPN's revenue is literally down a 1/3 or more.

Streaming is handled different, but the up front production costs are paid by TV and streaming on its own can't come close to make up the difference.

Its not just baseball, its the whole sport TV business.

final boss to the rangers

Seriously, would would be glad if their team acquired Jake Arrieta for a Boras type of salary?

apparently oh might have been the victim of some bad luck wrt peripherals/batted ball stuff last year. but i gotta say, watching him nearly every time he came out of the bullpen, his main issue seemed to be that the pitch he relies on heavily, a wipeout slider, had much less bite than it did in his outstanding 2016. as the year went on it just seemed to get worse as the hitters got the memo that they didn't have to fear the slider anymore. gotta love the final boss but i'd be skeptical about him having much success with the rangers unless he finds the slider again.

he could be a decent mini-boss

The capper for this offseason would be the Angels sending Ohtani to Triple-A to game his service-time clock

— Sam Miller (@SamMillerBB) February 7, 2018

We have acquired INF @DangeRussWilson from the Rangers in exchange for future considerations. Wilson is expected to be at camp in March.

🏈+⚾️ pic.twitter.com/NRyksQeQtl

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) February 7, 2018

the new market inefficiency: moonlighting nfl players

hehehe, PatsSox are "inflexible"

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/2/7/16986150/red-sox-jd-martinez-free-agency-diamondbacks-staring-contest

players association is getting pissy(/otm!) with the retweets

https://twitter.com/MLB_PLAYERS

gettin' closer to Camp Unsigned!

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/2/8/16992006/mlbpa-spring-training-camp-free-agency

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-might-be-a-problem-for-jake-arrieta/

jay jaffe to fangraphs

groovy

writer hot stove is sizzlin'

xpost
it's awful timing for arrieta. if he hit free agency a couple years ago, i'm sure he would have found at least one taker that would pay him $25M+ for 4 or more seasons. but as others have noted, front offices finally seem to have realized that those kinds of deals rarely work out well, even for players not showing warning signs of decline like arrieta. i'm thinking he'll eventually land somewhere for more like $20M AAV over 3 seasons?

i mean he's been noticeably worse each of the last two seasons. though he's still capable of excellence and pitched very well in the playoffs.

oh yeah, i phrased that in the most confusing way possible. i meant that Arrieta IS showing signs of decline. even his second half of 2017, when he got better results (2.28 ERA), came with warning signs (4.11 FIP, 4.30 xFIP)

o i c i misread sorry

nah, i failed the english language, heh

i wonder if arrieta would be the kind of player to take a shorter deal just to prove to everyone that he's worth a longer deal? (doesn't sound like something boras would allow anyway, though)

idk -- his K rate went up slightly and his BB rate went down in 2017 over 2016 -- the main differences seem to be that he had a lower ground-ball rate and both his HR/FB and BABIP jumped. that doesn't seem insurmountable, but losing 2mph off his fastball might be

kinda feel the cubs are like: here's a boras-represented dude who has loudly proclaimed how he wants to get paid; why deal with that stuff while yu and other options are available? i mean the cubs made no effort at all to re-sign aroldis last winter and that wasn't a red flag -- they just figured he wasn't worth the money

JD Martinez said to be fed up with the Bosox and their puny 125 million dollar offer.

man, 100M+ for someone who can't play a position is a hell of deal

Scott Boras says if #MLB teams can charge extra for high-profile matchups, fans should demand lower ticket prices for games featuring two tanking clubs. "It will be like military day: Come see the two tanks,'' he says.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) February 9, 2018

I'm starting to enjoy this Boras vs MLB staring contest/free agency deathmatch.

terrible pun by Boras

darvish to the cubs, 6/$126m

goddammit

I suppose Arrieta’s days as a Cubs are done.

they already were, i think - cubs haven't really been making an effort to sign him

if even a couple things break right for the cubs this year they could win 100 games again

who is their fifth starter?

montgomery, i guess? that's pretty decent

chatwood, right? (lester, quintana, darvish, hendricks)

oh yeah

yeah, and then montgomery ends up helping the bullpen, too

A source says that Yu Darvish's opt out with the #Cubs is "earlier'' than three years into his contract. (That would lead me to believe it's 2 years, but I don't take anything for granted at this point).

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) February 10, 2018

This is a new one: Esteban Loaiza, drug kingpin.

The second-winningest pitcher from Mexico in MLB history was arrested Friday with 20 kilos of heroin or cocaine, according to San Diego police records. He'll be in court Wednesday to face felony drug charges. Details are in pics. pic.twitter.com/312pf21Q4F

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 12, 2018