HOT STOVE LEAGUE 2K4/2K5

I tried to find a nice & tidy free-agent list this morning, but came up w/ bumpkiss - anyone got any leads?

- Beltran to the Cubs
- Pedro to the Angels
- Millwood to the Tigers
- Pavano to the Yankees
- Lowe to Baltimore

I wouldn't mind seeing Renteria in Boston next year, but I can't see the Cardinals letting him slip away. Also, OC might be a more cost-effective option, depending on his tab. Honestly, I can see the Sox resigning all their freebies if their asking prices aren't too out of whack. Pedro for $12-14 is OK; Pedro for $15+ is untennable. Same for Lowe at more than $8. & I imagine Varitek will want a long-term deal (3-4 years), which might be a hard sell when you're a 33 (34?) year-old catcher.

On my league message board the question was asked as to how to fix the Sox. The phrasing of the question and my answer:

"Ok, if you were the Red Sox GM, what would you do with the impending free agency, and upcoming crop of free agents? Take into consideration the money it would cost to sign/resign each player, who you have on your bench, and what you'd do to address any needs. Who do you resign from this group, if any? Pedro, Nomar, Varitek, Lowe and Ortiz.

What would you do with total control of the Red Sox? And just to make it interesting, let's say you have a cap of $120 M. So, you can't just say, "I'd sign everyone". By my estimates, it would take about $60-$65 M to resign all of those players. You don't want half your payroll to go to 5 guys, do you? You can also include things like trades. For example, "I'd trade Damon to the Mariners for R.Soriano" or some crap like that. Here is a list of the potential 2005 FA's.

2005 Free Agents:

Pitchers:

Matt Clement, ChC, RHP, 31*
Ryan Dempster, Cin., RHP, 28*
Odalis Perez, L.A., LHP, 27*
Pedro Martinez, Bos., RHP, 34*
Derek Lowe, Bos., RHP, 31*
Matt Morris, St. L., RHP, 31*
Kris Benson, Pit., RHP, 30*
Brad Radke, Min., RHP, 32*
Freddy Garcia, Sea., RHP, 29*
Felix Rodriguez, S.F., RHP, 31*
Troy Percival, Ana., RHP, 36*
Robb Nen, S.F., RHP, 35*

Infield:
Jason Varitek, Bos., C, 33*
Paul Konerko, ChW, 1B, 29*
Richie Sexson, Mil., 1B, 30*
Carlos Delgado, Tor., 1B-DH, 32*
Jose Vidro, Mon., 2B, 31*
Corey Koskie, Min., 3B, 32*
Adrian Beltre, L.A., 3B, 26*
Aaron Boone, FA., 3B, 32*
Troy Glaus, Ana., 3B, 28*
Cristian Guzman, Min., SS, 27*
Orlando Cabrera, Mon., SS, 30*
Nomar Garciaparra, Bos., SS, 32*

Outfield:

Carlos Beltran, K.C., OF, 28*
Magglio Ordonez, ChW, OF, 31*

*Opening day age 2005

Ok, that's my question. I'll post my answer later. I'm still thinking about my answer. Be realistic with any trades too. I'm really interested in everyone's answer."

MY ANSWER:

First off I would resign Varitek, but there's no way I would agree to the $14 million his agent is asking for (based on the Pudge signing). Either string him out with a back-weighted long-term deal and hope he retires before it hits or offer him a one-year $10 million dollar deal. Pedro clearly isn't worth the money any longer; let the Angels overpay for him. Nomar is a lost cause and isn't worth it anyway. Ortiz would be worth signing based on the price. $5 million, yes. $10 million? No. Also, Ortiz struggles mightily against lefties – something definitely worth considering. Lowe is worth it for $8 million a year or less. Based on these factors, I would grab Lowe for $7 million and Varitek for a four or five year deal at $9 a year. That leaves about $40 million to play with.

First up, sign Ordonez. This will take Lowe money to do so. With Ordonez on board, move Manny to the DH spot. That leaves us down to, say, $30 million. It looks like Cabrera is having a down year, so hopefully he can be had for $6 million, considering position scarcity. To shore up the pitching, sign Odalis Perez to be your second or third starting pitcher ($5 million, I would think) and Kris Benson to follow him ($3 or $4 million). Vidro will be overpriced in the FA market, so perhaps a deal could be worked out to acquire both a 2B and a CF (Damon costs too much). Perhaps Damon and Williamson for Cameron and Reyes? I dunno if the Mets would go for that, actually. What about Damon and Williamson to the Brewers for Spivey (a capable hitter) and Podesnik (a good defensive CF and a hustler, which the Boston fans should love). I would guess that the Brewers would go for that. This should drop payroll by at least $4 or $5 million. Use that extra cash to pick up a quality firstbaseman – preferably Sexson, though he could be overpriced. Konerko is certainly someone worth considering. We'll say they sign Konerko for $7 million. Based on my monkey math, that should leave the Sox about $15 million under the cap. With that money, perhaps they could offer Pedro a one-year deal, or even bring back Ortiz to DH (allowing for the inevitable Trot Nixon injury). That would leave the Sox lineup as:

OF Podesnik
3B Mueller
DH Manny/Ortiz
OF Ordonez
1B Konerko
OF Nixon/Manny
C Varitek
SS Cabrera
2B Spivey

Rotation:
Schilling
Lowe
Wakefield
Perez
Benson

Plus there's still the leverage of having Kim to swap for utility/bench help. And there's still money saved.

Thoughts?

"Pedro clearly isn't worth the money any longer; let the Angels overpay for him"

"It looks like Cabrera is having a down year, so hopefully he can be had for $6 million, considering position scarcity."

BOW TO ME PEOPLES

I think you're dreaming if you don't foresee both these guys involved in some major bidding.

Or they could just, y'know, shitcan the manager, get someone in the position that's not an asshat, and move on.

Any word from sportsfolks re: Nomar staying in ChiTown?

Nen wants a minor league contract with SF.

After what he did in the post season and considering his popularity, do you really think the Red Sox would get rid of Johnny Damon? That seems pretty remote to me. I think they will probably try to keep Lowe, Varitek and Cabrera but let Pedro move on.

Does any of these starters really excite any of you?
Matt Morris, St. L., RHP, 31*
Kris Benson, Pit., RHP, 30*
Brad Radke, Min., RHP, 32*
Freddy Garcia, Sea., RHP, 29*

They are competent and all, but not one of them are anything like Pedro, even as he is now. Benson could turn into something else, but he hasn't so far. Keep in mind, Pedro is still younger than Clemens was when he left Boston. Morris, Radke and Garcia haven't won the big games in the playoffs, so why should a moneybag team, ready to win it all drop big cash on these guys? Better to just get more hitting and build up the bullpen, unless you are a team with little starting pitching at all (like the O's).

This is like a lesser version of the types of trades my dad & his friend would pull out of their ass during previous Red Sox seasons - "Yeah, maybe we can trade Otis Nixon & Wakefield & Bill Hasselmann for Brian Giles." Actually, that's a bad example - their prospective trades would involve shipping every crap sack of meat on the roster for the other team's best player.

Granted, Earl, if Cam Bonifay were the GM, you might actually get your wish.

It would have to be a short-term deal I think. He seems to like the town a lot, and the fans like him, but I'm not sure how keen mgmt is on his health. If Nomar wants three years or more, he'll probably head west.

As for Sammy, his one year option that's somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 mil becomes guaranteed if he gets traded. So it's like a $35 mil proposition to trade him. I can't think of any possible way the Cubs could both get Beltran and cut Sammy loose. But Hendry's pulled improbable deals off before I guess.

*ahem* 25-year-old *ahem* Adrian Beltre had ankle surgery to remove to bone spurs and filed for free agency.

Bill Buckner:
``Personally, on my end of it, I'm just a little disappointed with the whole thing. This whole thing about being forgiven and clearing my name, you know, I mean ... cleared from what? What did I do wrong? It's almost like being in prison for 30 years and then they come up with a DNA test to prove that you weren't guilty.

``I've gone through a lot of, what I feel, undeserved bad situations for myself and my family over a long period of time, and for someone to come up to me and say, 'Hey, you're forgiven,' I mean, it just kind of brings a really bad taste in my mouth.''

The Astros exercised Craig Biggio's option but declined Jeff Kent's.

Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado both filed free agency.

The Cubs declined options on Alou and Grudz.

Funny how Giants brass waits until after Barry retires. Cheap bastards.

The thing that is bad about liking the Cincinnatti Reds is that you know they are not going to do jack squat in the off season to improve anything. The only way they get new talent is by shipping off expensive talent and for the past few years they get the short end of the deal. The Reds can hit like Clubber Lang, but they pitch like Paul Lynne. They are also the most fragile team in baseball, I can't think of any other team that loses players to the DL more than the Reds. It must be some proximity effect from Griffey.

The team I wonder what they will do is Cleveland. They used to be big spenders back in the day and they have a young lineup ready for primetime. They need to build up their bullpen and get another starter.

An outfield of Bonds, Grissom and Alou would add up to a combined 119 years old and would qualify for the all-medicare team. I think the Giants are trying to move Grissom to right and attract a legitimate CF.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets

Nooooo!

At least the loony Wally Backman-for-manager campaign is history.

i had no idea minaya was w/ the mets!?!?

yikes.

George Foster's problem was that he was OLD by the time the Mets signed him. Don't forget, he was released in mid-'86 after complaining that he lost playing time to racism (much of which went to... Kevin Mitchell and Mookie Wilson).

TEN!

YEARS!

Looks like Beltran's agent is trying to get a contract in total cash on in the A-Rod realm, which no matter how good Carlos may be is crazy thinking. Beltran is a great all around player and probably has not yet peaked, but he hasn't hit like A-Rod did in Seattle.

After such a big injury, I would figure that Sexton might go to a team on a short one year deal, just to prove that he is ok.

The team that I am really curious to see what moves the make are the Cleveland Indians. Their lineup is definitely ready to make a run at winning the central, but they need a whole lot of help in the bullpen and probably one or two starting pitchers. Are their finances improved? They used to be a money bags team and then started from scratch in rebuilding.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=fanball-redsoxoffermadetoped&prov=fanball&type=lgns

Come to think of it, is Pedro the first guy who signed his last contract during the Inflated Contract Era to come up for free agency? That is, is he the first of the guys who signed multi-year deals at $15-$20mil/year who will have to take a BIG paycut because of the subsequent market correction?

Delgado is in the same boat right now.

apparently a sosa for shawn green deal is in the works and the chisox have offered konerko, jon garland and prospects for the large unit.

If the Sox have offered Konerko and Garland for the Unit, no matter how good the prospects are the DBacks should bite. Konerko could be in the prime of his career next season and Garland might be the kind of pitcher that does better in the NL and he will be only 25 next season. The Unit will be 41 next season and he might be just as good or his body could fall apart in May, you never know on these things.

Getting rid of Konerko for the Sox is quite a gamble. If Magglio leaves and Thomas is still hurt next season, that team will have a serious hole in the middle of the lineup. Carlos Lee would really have to deliver and other people would have to step up.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets114038017nov11,0,3885182.story

REYES?? He'll be healed and Cooperstown-bound if they deal him for Soriano, aka Juan Samuel II.

Braves wisely trying to trade Andruw at the peak of his overratedness.

it was good to see the can though, looking a little rough, but that's the can.

Minaya hasn't impressed me so far.

What the heck is the ChiSox farm system like that they can consider giving up Konerko? Or are they going to simultaneously make a play for Delgado or some other 1B freebie?

What's he done besides hire Randolph?

Geez, Mo Rivera got 24 third-place Cy votes -- is all that Wisdom of Gammons-influenced? What crap. Ben Sheets got ONE third-place vote in the NL.

Speaking of Pistol Pete, his latest column sez the Unit doesn't want the Chisox:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1920544

I can't see any way the Braves would deal Andruw Jones for Kevin Brown, especially considering Brown is around age 40 and played like a duffer last season and during the playoffs.

"Soriano, aka Juan Samuel II"

Interesting and apt comparison.

Boras is smoking rope on some of these deals he is fishing out there.

(aka Renteria's wallet)

Jim Bowden = ???? Didn't anyone tell him that both Vinny & Guzman are the bottom of the barrel at their respective positions this free agent season, and that he could probably get equal production from cheaper folk and / or sign those two for less money after everyone else filled their left infield needs? You'd think his many months working for ESPN would've taught him SOMETHING.

http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/20702.htm

xpost - did R. Kelly sleep with his ex-chef, though?

Yeah, why would Pavano suck in the AL, Yanc? (Pro Player has been a strong pitcher park; Pavano was still one of the 4-5 best in the NL last year, neutrally speaking.)

Mrs Sheff's adventures with R predated her trophy-wifery.

as for kelly/sheff -- i don't care if it happened long after i was dead, i would not want a tape of my wife grooving on kelly's no-cry-shampoo scented cock. talk about being shamed!

She is 28 years old and the incident happened "more than 10 years ago".

Also note - he's only 28! (I just did a quick PECOTA check, & hoped to find Tom Glavine's name on his list, but no dice. HOWEVER, 1998's Jon Lieber (link!) is #3 on his list of comparables.)

They better make RFK into Shibe Park or the Polo Grounds. With a water-slide in the field of play. And mascots (filibusters!) running onto the field at random times to interfere with balls in play.

i'd guess the nl-to-al thing is 90% conventional wisdom, but i'll leave that to morbius.

chances are his era will be closer to 4.30 than 3.00, but in b/w the two, agreed?

If I'm reading the charts right, CP's bullpen support was among the worst (3.63) in '03 and decent (-0.83) this year:

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sp_pen_support2004.html

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sp_pen_support2003.html

Keep in mind Pavano's 2000 surgery meant he didn't have 30 (or even 25) starts in a year til 2003. Will Carroll, BP's injury guru, greenlights him:

"Carl Pavano (GREEN) - Here's a test case for pitchers. Pavano never pitched more than 136 innings before age 27, then jumped up to the 200-inning mark in his next two seasons. He pitched for a World Series winner, then got better the next season. He has a classic pitcher's frame, good mechanics, and everything but a strikeout pitch. If BP built a pitcher, Frankenstein-style, there'd be some Pavano parts in the mix. You have to be damned good to dump Alyssa Milano. (prediction: Orioles)"

The full Carroll free-agent report (non-premium!):

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3622

Kent has been healthy even as he's aged, assuming he can be kept away from "car washes." (Cubs)

Views
The Tigers now have two closers. They recently picked up the $4-million option on Ugueth Urbina's contract for 2005. You can expect they will be asked about this at their upcoming press conference; it's quite possible Urbina will be traded at baseball's winter meetings. Percival was reportedly being pursued by up to 12 teams, most notably the Indians, who will now likely focus their attention on landing free agent Armando Benitez as consolation. Percival's fantasy value will suffer a little in Detroit, as he will have fewer save opportunities than he's had in Anaheim, but will be pitching in a better pitcher's ballpark. The main concern with the 35-year-old Percival remains his health, as he has battled various ailments the last couple years and is certainly past his prime.

Vizquel made $6.25M in 04, he will make $4.08M in 05 (-35%)
Percival made $7.8M in 04, and will make $6M in 05 (-23%)

Those are some pretty significant pay decreases which do not look out of line for guys in their mid-30s who can still play reasonably well.

Vizquel: $15M/2yrs : $12.25/3 yrs = -45%
Percival: $16M/2yrs : $12M/2 yrs = -25%

http://www.movieactors.com/photos-sf/cocoon.jpeg

Beltran won't come to Chicago, I know there is some delusional thinking that it might happen, but I don't see it happening. Major free agent stars don't decide to play for either Chicago teams, it just doesn't happen.

I do think Jeff Kent might end up a Cub. Nomar won't be back, but I could see Chicago going after Cabrera, especially if they get Kent. They really need another left handed bat, but neither of these guys are one, so that trade for Sosa for Green could be good. I still have a feeling Sammy will be playing for the Cubs next season.

The Giants need to get with the stick and sign Moises Alou to complete the ancient ones.

The Twinkies also have a couple of ancients in their midst they could deal to the Giants with Terry Mulholland and Pat Borders.

They need to bring back Benito Santiago, he was the perfect catcher for their team. They would look like an Allstar lineup from 1993!

but there has to be some market for moderately-priced 2b/of guy w/ good average & obp, huh?

on another note: anyone see espn's ranking of fa's and projected suitors?

kinda silly.

i would bet that carlos delgado has become their prime offensive target. it seems that the magglio ordonez talk has cooled quite a bit.

hairston and roberts are basically the same guy. matos and bigbie are basically the same guy. gibbons seems to injury prone to make an impact.

markakis is a couple years off and has good power potential as does this other guy...walter something or other.

I guess Oakland is in talks with Pittsburgh, maybe Zito for Kendall?

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/nyspken214050892nov21,0,7933337.column

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spken214050892nov21,0,7933337.column

Regardless, seeing the A's weather the supposed debilitating loss of their superstar has been quite remarkable. They lose Tejada, but get capable production from Crosby, see a spike in production from Durazo & Chavez, get a full year of Eric Byrnes' goodness and a damn good year from a (finally!) healthy Mark Kotsay. If it wasn't for Arthur Rhodes (& other bullpen pitchers not named Octavio Dotel or Justin Durscherer) blowing up in their face, and the Big 3 doing #2 on the mound for a short portion of the year, they would've played the Red Sox in the DS.

Is Jermaine Dye off their books yet?

Essentially (since he's in the final season of his contract), they are "renting" Zito. And forget the "big three" talk, there are FOUR quality starters on the As, and Zito's arguably the most disposable of them.

Another side note that I've wanted to touch on here but always forget to is that in last year's BP guide they pointed out the departure of longtime Oakland pitching coach/trainer (i can't remember which one) and forecasted a steep decline in the quality of Oakland's pitching. Needless to say they were right.

And I seriously doubt that the Pirates (who stole Perez & Bay from SD) would be so willing to give them up.

The others who started games in 2004 were Mark Redman and Kirk Saarlos.

And yes, Jermaine Dye is off the books (hence the resigning of Chavez).

and yes i doubt the pirates would ever make the trade i suggested above, but to deal for kendall would be a HUGE mistake.

Kendall DID lead NL catchers in VORP last year (trailing Pudge, Javy, Posada, Martinez and Varitek in the AL).

You're talking about Rick "Kazmir Ain't Spit" Peterson, right?

Yanc3, I think he's counting Harden as 1 of the 4 - Saarloos got starts when one of the 3 went on the DL. I was under the impression that Redman had a solid #5 type of year, but I could be wrong.

Oh no I do!!! It's just that nobody else seems to ("Big Three this and that"), Harden outpitched Zito last year.

Oliver Perez reminds me a little bit of Johan. Esp. the change when it's working.

And yes, Redman as their #5 guy is pretty solid.

Here are the Sacramento Rivercats (NOTE: hitter-friendly PCL, it would be nice to see these adjusted) pitching stats:

http://rivercats.com/game/stats/?type=pitching

Zito hasn't shown much of the excellence that he showed up to and including his CY year. His reputation far exceeds his ability at this point, and Beane surely has recognized the slow slide in his performance over the last couple of years. I'll be shocked if Zito doesn't get dealt soon.

Is Rick Peterson some sort of conditioning wizard? Oakland's pitching was great up until around the end of July, then everybody became ass all at once. So ... was this just bad luck, or a mark of bad coaching/preparation?

Kapler first to bolt World Series champions

November 22, 2004

BOSTON (AP) -- Gabe Kapler became the first player to leave the World Series champion Boston Red Sox, agreeing to a one-year contract with the Yomiuri Giants in Tokyo.

``He spent the better part of a week really agonizing over the decision,'' agent Paul Cohen said Monday. ``He really felt at this point in his career, he wanted the guarantee to play.''

Kapler, 29, was a backup on the Red Sox team that won the AL wild-card berth, then came back from a 3-0 deficit to beat the New York Yankees in the AL championship series. Boston swept St. Louis in the World Series, with Kapler going 0-for-2 and appearing in all four games.

ADVERTISEMENT
Kapler, among 16 Boston players who became free agents, was a full-time player for three seasons, the last in 2001, when he played 134 games for Texas. He joined Boston from Colorado during the 2003 season and appeared in 63 games with the Red Sox, batting .291.

Last season, he played in 136 games but started only 73 and hit .272 in 290 at bats.

With Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and Trot Nixon all under contract, the Red Sox starting outfield seems set for next season. They also have outfielder Dave Roberts, a starter with Los Angeles before Boston acquired him July 31.

Did anyone else catch the YES 2K4 Yankee season recap? I only watched a brief snippet (because, y'know, I wanted to have a little gloat, & I was curious as to how they'd address the season's conclusion). The one segment I caught was a roundtable discussion w/ Brian Cashman. Not that it was really a "discussion" - it was more like an interrogation or a hostile exit interview, w/ Michael Kay & Suzyn Waldman asking blunt pointed questions about where things went wrong & how they were going to reload for the upcoming year. As always, BC looked like he just crapped himself, or maybe that's his face of restraint - lord knows I'd be hard pressed to control my temper if I had puppet asshats grilling me about the shortcomings of personnel decisions I possibly had little control over (if only because I imagine George asked the very same questions, albeit in a more profane manner). Should I be surprised that the broadcast tentacle of the Yankee behemoth is exhibiting the same sort of pensive anger and soulless resolve as the mother brain in regards to what happened last year? Should I read anything into the YES Network's endless rebroadcasting of past glories over the last 4 weeks? Am I a hypocrite for painting Los Yanquis as cold haet-filled automotons while I pledge my support to the team that's right behind them in terms of wealth & power & nuclear capabilities?

Also - Suzyn Waldman is joining Andy Capp in the Yankee radio broadcast booth; Mr. Charley Steiner is possibly escaping to the Dodgers' broadcast booth.

Cashman's answer to all "what happened" questions should be "Mariano walked the leadoff guy."

The Steiner move is done; Waldman isn't as big a dick (ahem, metaphorically) as Sterling, but her voice thuds on my ears. I'm sure she's in the amen chorus on the Greatness of Jeetah, yes?

The few times I heard Yankee games on the radio this past year, Steiner sounded shocking out of place & out of sorts, either because he's not so hot as a radio broadcaster, or because he was trying to fight the implants.

You know, a walk's as good as a homerun at this point.

I dare say the Twins are afraid of their farm system. However, someone on Baseball Prospectus posited yesterday that the Twins' questionable handling of prospects (dicking them out of playing time, letting them fester on the bench or in the minors) could be some dastardly cost-cutting measure (to avoid paying contract incentives, perhaps lower the arbitration salary ceiling, etc.) - of course, if they were cutting costs, then please to explain why they're throwing money at Proven Veterans that aren't much of an improvement of their own organization's players.

Oh man I don't see how this isn't pure gold for the A's (I mean assuming health and all that and that the Pirates assume a good part of this stupid back-weighted contract.)

Pedro to Mets? Good idea?

http://doc-baseball.blogspot.com/2004/11/to-pedro-or-not-to-pedro.html

but Oakland pays $1M and $2M for Kendall in 2005 & 2006 so a net $2M contribution from PIT and if Kendall gets traded again (with OAK, a high possibility), they pay nothing.

Apparently the Jays were the only MLB club that didn't have full operating control over its stadium.

sf chronicle article

My gut tells me that the Giants just bought the services of the Armando that no one likes, not the Armando happily toiling in relative obscurity in Florida. Even if they were getting the good Armando, I'm not sure he's worth $7M - I'm guessing most of that paycheck is to (briefly) allay the bullpen fears of San Fran fans.

At this rate, Nomah might be able to swing $15M, and Ordonez can probably sucker a team into a $80M / 5 year deal. (Granted, I'm exaggerating a bit, but this off-season doesn't seem as fiscally responsible as last year's.) (I could be mistaken.)

Also, the article mentions a lefty in the works for the Giants... hmmmm... any speculations? Their targeted salary of $79-80M looks to be in jeopardy unless they start dealing away some of their higher paid players.

PROS:
Benitez reminds me of Nen: 3 solid pitches with a high 90s fastball, a low 90s slider and a decent 3rd pitch. He's coming off a career year which is always risky, but could pay dividends for the Giants who haven't had a legitimate closer since 2002.

CONS:
His OPS allowed of .475 last year seems impossible to duplicate (Gagne allowed .508 in 04) but maybe playing half his games in PacBell will be similar to playing half his games in ProPlayer. His steady decline of K/9 (while still high at 8.01) spells trouble (although his control is much better than earlier in his career, eg: his WHIP was less than 1 for the first time in his career in 04).

Yeah, the obscure Defending World Champion Marlins.

At this rate, Nomah might be able to swing $15M, and Ordonez can probably sucker a team into a $80M / 5 year deal. (Granted, I'm exaggerating a bit, but this off-season doesn't seem as fiscally responsible as last year's.) (I could be mistaken.)

Ordonez might hit the jackpot if he gets a deal equal to Tejada ($72M/6) but I highly doubt Nomar is going to command 8 digits. Whereas Ordonez has a shot at regaining his pre-injury form, I don't think anyone considers Nomar anywhere near allstar ability.

Remember, Benitez is coming off a season where he was arguably was one of the top 3-4 closers in the game. He had the lowest ERA in the majors, the 2nd highest amount of saves in the NL, blew less saves then anyone not named Gagne in the NL. He is not some hobbly gimp who got benched in favor of Neifi Perez at times late last season.

Touche, duder, but the few times I recall folks mentioning their World Series win, it was as an "oh, by the way" afterthought. Either no one gave a spank, or the Marlins need better PR.

I'd be shocked if either of these guys get 2 years (esp. Nomar.)

Benitez has struggled at SBC Park, however, with a 4.91 ERA in five appearances. Furthermore, Benitez will be remembered most for allowing a dramatic three-run, pinch-hit home run to J.T. Snow in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the 2000 NLDS in San Francisco. The Giants, however, lost to the Mets 5-4 in 10 innings and blew a chance to take a 2-0 lead in the series, which they lost in four games.

from ESPN

Pedro Martinez - $90M/7yrs = $12.86M/yr

$38/3yrs = $12.66M/yr

= -1.5% decline

He made over $18M (with bonuses) last year for the Red Sox!!!

does he not have a world series ring (not bad, a 3-hit 7 inning shutout in the world series)?
Has Joe Morgan hijacked gygax's ILX account? The fact that he won a WS this year with by far the best team he's ever played on has nothing to do with the fact that he's not the pitcher he was in 1999 (when he was dominant in the playoffs, unlike this year save one WS game), or even 2002.

You guys are being unfair to discount inflation so heavily as well.

What makes you think there has been a lot of permanent inflation between 1997 and 2004 (obv at various points things were very inflated, but I not so sure things haven't stabilized at roughly the same point they were around then)?

Re: playoffs, Pedro had a 4.00 ERA this year in 27 IP. That's good (considering the higher level of competition) but not great, and not the kind of performance that makes you spend a few million more per year plus an extra year on the contract just to make sure you get that particular guy.

In the 1999 playoffs he was a lot better, and of course was a better pitcher then too. And five years younger. And on the DL four or five fewer times.

Very easy to say from an SF viewpoint (where the regional economy stalled then bombed), but at a national level, there is indeed permanent inflation:

Year PPI CPI
1997 -0.1% 2.3%
1998 -2.5% 1.6%
1999 0.9% 2.2%
2000 5.7% 3.4%
2001 1.1% 2.8%
2002 -2.3% 1.6%
2003 5.3% 2.3%

MiR:
Never mind inflation, I'm talking about Market Value 2004 vs Market Value 1997. Nobody's getting the 6yr+ contracts that were so common in the late 90's. Nobody's getting $15M+/yr either.

YET. We have yet to see any allstar young players sign (hellllloooo Beltran and Beltre!... not to say they deserve those type of contracts).

Re: playoffs, Pedro had a 4.00 ERA this year in 27 IP. That's good (considering the higher level of competition) but not great, and not the kind of performance that makes you spend a few million more per year plus an extra year on the contract just to make sure you get that particular guy.

Yes the team that owned him this year in the playoffs (whom he referred to quite publically as his "Daddy") was a $192M 1/2 allstar team (albeit with no chemistry). Yes, that team could knock 4 Runs in off anyone in the league. Big whoop.

In the 1999 playoffs he was a lot better, and of course was a better pitcher then too. And five years younger. And on the DL four or five fewer times.

Yes, and guys, trust me, I think that the Mets (or the Angels or whomever) will have their doctors and trainers present to look into Pedro's health to give the deal the "OK".

benitez's contract, otoh, is ludicrous.

also, local sportsradio says that SF is not done yet and are pretty much ready to announce the signing of Jermaine Dye tomorrow. They also confirmed that they are courting a "major league lefty"... could it be RJ?

Isn't that offer about what Schilling makes per year?

gary sheffield got a 3/39 contract last year. granted it was from the yankees, but it was pretty much market value by any estimation and i can't see why pedro doesn't deserve a similar, if not superior, offer.

The Sheffield contract from last year is a good example of the way the market has declined since 2000-1.

The Mets doctors can examine Pedro every which way, it doesn't matter if he's healthy right now, what matters is how likely he will break down in the future. He was on the DL nearly every year in his seven years with Boston, and there's no reason to assume that those trends won't continue. He doesn't throw as hard as he used to, his K/9IP ratio has declined for three straight years, and his K/BB ratio has declined for four straight years.

I'm a huge Pedro fan, but I think 3/38 is a risk. Maddux was a Cy contender only two years ago (16-6 2.62) but the same signs of decline had set in. And Maddux was *healthy* for his entire career! Now Maddux is making $6M. Similarly, I think Pedro will put up solid, but not great numbers, basically duplicating what he did last year. Is 16-9 3.90 for three years really worth $38M?

that may be true, but it's also a decent gauge for pedro's contract, imo. admittedly it's a bit awkward but it was what sprung to mind at the time, and i think their strengths and weaknesses probably even out nicely.

but more pertinent are the three biggest pitching deals of last year (that i can sort of remember):

colon 4/54
pettitte 3/39 REJECTED
vazquez 4/45

so, apparently it is.

honestly, i don't see much of an argument here. you've got a nominal superstar (fuck, nearly a legend) coming off a world series season in which he was paid 18 million dollars - so he's gonna be expecting big cash no matter HOW he performed. his big weakness is health, but he threw more innings last season than in any since his monstrous cy-worthy 2000 campaign. he's only 33. and though his performance was way down (to a mere 'very good'), in every year BEFORE that he was, on a rate basis, the best starter of all time - so you've got quite a lot of upside to gamble on. all in all, a risk (as w/ any injury prone pitcher - or as the hardcore statheads would probably say, any pitcher), but a worthy one if you've got the cash and need pitching.

anyway i'm all for the yanks offering up a big money 3 year contract (4 guaranteed is def stretching it) so i'm not just playing 'petey's' agent here.

Furthermore, top pitchers almost always make less than top position players. So maybe my Sheffield comparison wasn't the most appropriate ... instead, consider Maddux, who signed a five-year deal -- still in his prime, which unfortunately doesn't apply to Pedro anymore -- the year after Pedro for ~$11M per.

NY Times has major buzzkill on Mets-Pedro today; I pray it's true. Source says Mets would have to "overwhelm" him to pry him from Sox (ie, 4 years guaranteed at around 14.5 per).

'gax, "20 wins easy" in the NL East? With whose bullpen? Not likely even with the Braves', who have no interest.

So I got the terms of the Benitez deal:

Base Salary (+ signing bonus)
2005 $2.5M (+$1.6M) = $4.1M
2006 $4.0M (+$2.6M) = $6.6M
2007 $7.6M (+$0.0M) = $7.6M
2008 $0.0M (+$1.6M) = $1.6M
2009 $0.0M (+$1.6M) = $1.6M

mir, there are some obvious problems w/ using a contracts signed 8 years ago as your comparison point, one of them being that the market wasn't CLOSE to it's peak - it didn't peak until 4 years later, when mike mussina - definitely NOT coming off a cy young season - signed a 6 year 85 million dollar deal (w/ an option for a 7th at 17M = 7yr/102M).

there's also randy johnson, who signed that huge contract at 39 during the big regression year of aught2. (i wanted to say 2/40 but that can't be right since he's still under contract. was it 3yrs at 18M per??)

as for maddux's CURRENT contract, it's a pretty strong parallel but one, it's the exception and not the rule, two, "upside" - and this is just my perception, but with maddux there wasn't much chance he was going to return to his sub-3.00 era ways, while pedro's still a major strikeout pitcher, and i think there's still hope he's going to regain whatever it was he lost last year (that's up to ML teams to decide). there's also a world of difference between 33 and 37. but generally, i think if you're a big name and can put up a 3.50 era, you're going to make 11-14M per.

Unit is a freak of nature and is certainly not a fair comparison for the expected performance of great pitchers in their late-30's. Again -- the guy was a workhorse and had hardly ever been injured when he signed with the DBacks.

Unlike the other pitchers we've been mentioning, Pedro is a) past his peak, and b) injured a hell of a lot.

i think if you're a big name and can put up a 3.50 era, you're going to make 11-14M per

I agree, but this is more the reality of the market than smart GM'ing. And again, I wouldn't have a problem with Pedro earning 13M, I'd have a problem giving him that money for three years or more.

sure pedro's past his peak, but then his peak was a level on par with anything in the history of baseball, so...

Pedro lookin' like Glavine 2 winters ago. The issue is he's likely to be WAY past his prime halfway through a 4-year contract, and/or a 170-inning pitcher.

Recommendation: A trade for Johnson, who may request an extension past 2005 in exchange for approving a trade to Boston, would likely preclude the Red Sox from re-signing Pedro Martinez, who has received a three-year offer from the Mets.

i hope this is bogus.

Other problems - what happens to the bullpen if their 2nd best guy goes west?

I hope the rumor's bogus, but I also hope it's not (for obvious, gleeful reasons) (tee hee).

Doc OTM re Pedro. A fair offer, IMO, is 2Y/25M guaranteed, with a third year extension to kick in automatically if he pitches more than 200 innings in 2006. I'm glad I'm not Theo Epstein -- how would YOU like to explain to Pedro "we think you're a risky signing because of your injuries so we have to offer you less". I'm pretty sure Pedro would balk at an offer like the one I proposed.

(Stop thinking that, you pervs.)

'A baseball official told MLB.com that Arizona is asking for Javier Vazquez and cash considerations to put toward his three-year, $34.5 million contract, as well as prospects Eric Duncan and Chien-Ming Wang. In addition to the three players and the cash, Arizona wants the Yankees to deal for one of Oakland's "Big Three" of Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, and include that pitcher in the trade as well.'

haha!

Where was this ball-busting when the Red Sox came acallin' for Schilling?

like ... wha???

http://www.nj.com/sportsflash/baseball/index.ssf?/base/sports-8/1101953654167491.xml&storylist=baseball

don't be surprised if he's traded to boston for bronson arroyo and a prospect.

RUMOR HAS IT the yankees offered JON LIEBER a 3 year 21M contract and are close to netting ERIC MILTON. cuz (mediorcre) PITCHING WINS!!!

According to Andrew, the last 17 days of posts have been unfortunately lost ...

this reminds me over the weekend on sportsradio i heard some jackass going on in the wake of the mulder trade (btw wow) about how 'moneyball doesn't work' and how 'when theo epstein finally tossed all that bill james nonsense aside the red sox finally won' and how 'oakland isn't committed to winning' and, wait for it, 'they need to be like the mets and show their fans they're willing to spend what it takes to win'

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Shawn Green didn't want to leave LA, so him holding up that trade probably got his wish not to leave. Appearantly the sports talk radio and local writers were frying DiPodesta over this potential trade and losing Beltre, so the Dodgers got cold feet.

Considering how poorly Mulder pitched down the stretch, maybe there is something they know and are getting rid of him while he has high value. Danny Haren looked like he had pretty good stuff in the playoffs, whether or not that will translate into being a good starter, I don't know.

The A's could be like the Reds, who give away all of their spare talent for people that do nothing. The Reds big moves this off season are getting Ramon Ortiz, signing Shawn Estes and Kent Mercker. They need pitching, but oh well...someone has to pitch.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1949178

Mulder and Hudson are due a combined $3.8 million more in '05; between that and TH's impending free agency, end of story, nearly.

The Minaya-Sosa relationship is well documented, but the Mets' strategy summarized in today's Times is Beltran + budget 1b (Olerud or, sigh, Minky) OR Delgado + Alou.

Jay Payton takes Kapler's spot as Fenway's Body Beautiful.

anybody know what his re-hab outlook is like? might not be a bad pitcher for someone to take a flyer on.

"...the New York Daily News has reported that the Dodgers would then spin Vazquez to the Chicago White Sox for a package consisting of first baseman Paul Konerko, starter Jon Garland and lefty reliever Damaso Marte. Sox GM Kenny Williams has denied his team's involvement in the deal, while Dodger GM Paul DePodesta has said that his team's role is contingent on subsequent moves being in place."

Nah, that would be crazy. It's just a dumb rumor, and kw laughed it off a couple of days ago (in local Chicago media).

i got banned for the third time from nyyfans during ilx's downtime. i was told by email to "get a life".

(except they actually told my parents cuz i used their addy to register since they don't accept freemail addresses and i didn't want to take the time to find one obscure enough to bypass their censor...now i'm afraid they think i'm a loser :< well god dammit i forgot how to make that face)

o what i will suffer for a scoop : (

btw love how you did those bulletpoints thermo howdyoudothat?

And after the fact, DePo (who was pissed all this got leaked) gets Drew:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1951346

Anyhow... the •'s are easy if you're on a mac - it's just option 8 - but if you're on a pc just forget about it!

To answer your question, TT: I'm Italian.

The D-Rays are also looking to snag Josh Phelps, which is a signing that actually MAKES SENSE. At least, when the Twins needlessly sign a middle infielder, they do it for just over $1M. Gonzo's crap-ass career will undoubtedly earn him $3M / $4M, at least.

Also - if Odalis Perez gets signed for only $6M/year, that will probably be the steal of the off-season (assuming Nomar can't get his shit / wrist / ankle together).

Last season was the first JD Drew played without an injury. Beltran is 10x better defensively and is one of the fastest guys in the league.

Drew's not only gonna be *playing* at 39, he'll be BETTER? He on the clear?

"A report out of the Dominican Republic states that the Giants and Moises Alou have agreed to a two-year, $13.6 million contract."

118 year old outfield

Rumor has it Beane is trying to snooker the Mets out of prospects for Eric Byrnes...

http://doc-baseball.blogspot.com/2004/12/byrnes-baby-byrnes.html

With Moises off the market, things look better for one of the Carloses or Magglio in Queens! (whistling past the Sammy)

Home:
BA: .339/OBP: .405/SLG: .714

Away:
BA: .247/OBP: .316/SLG: .400

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpcDBuM2RlBF9TAzk1ODYxNzc3BHNlYwN0aA--?slug=ap-mets-galarraga&prov=ap&type=lgns

Hee Seop will be the full-time OBP force at first in LA, LA will get minor leaguers (hope they're worth that $18M/yr).

"My philosophy with regard to the Yankees is, I assume they're going to win about 100 games a year and we have to win 100 if we want to win the division. Our whole gameplan is to try and win 95 to 100 every year to get us to the postseason so we have a chance to win the World Series every year. We spend a lot less time thinking about the Yankees and their moves than you might think. I assume going into every offseason that they're going to land probably the best position player and the best pitcher available because they have the means to do so and they're smart and they usually do. And they haven't won the World Series in a few years. We'll just focus on ourselves."

(The link's to an article about the Red Sox reaction to the Randy Johnson trade.)

Ponson released after a week in jail

Tuesday, January 4, 2005

(01-04) 08:35 PST ORANJESTAD, Aruba (AP) --

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Sidney Ponson was released from jail on Tuesday after being held for a week while police investigated allegations he punched a judge on a beach in Aruba.

Ponson appeared before a judge on Tuesday and prosecutors said they would not oppose his release as he awaits trial, the daily La Prensa reported. The 28-year-old right-hander faces charges of public violence and simple aggression. No trial date has been set.

Under Aruba law, a suspect can be detained for up to eight days without bail while police investigate a crime.

Ponson, who was born on the Dutch Caribbean island, allegedly punched a local judge on Dec. 25 at a beach in Boca Catalina after several people confronted Ponson, accusing him of harassing them with his personal watercraft and operating it recklessly, police said.

The judge was hospitalized with minor injuries, authorities said. Ponson fled the scene but police detained him later in the day, said authorities.

Ponson went 11-15 with a 5.30 ERA in 33 starts and 215.2 innings pitched last season. He has played with the Orioles except for a brief stint with the San Francisco Giants in 2003. He became a free agent after that season and signed a $22.5 million, three-year contract with Baltimore.

He has a 69-80 career record in seven seasons with a 4.67 ERA and 802 strikeouts in 210 games and 1,313 innings pitched.

In 1998, Ponson became the third Aruban to play in the major leagues. In 2003, he was decorated in his homeland as a knight in the Order of the Dutch Royal House.

-- from an Orioles message board re: Sir Sidney

Before I moused over the link, I assumed Gygax! was linking to a Buster Olney pile of crank.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spbeltran064105719jan06,0,7719557.story

Hey, Buster Olney is appearing at Coliseum Books in NYC this Saturday eve... shall I attend and give him shit?

http://www.coliseumbooks.com/events/010805event.htm

Renteria is an upgrade at short, that I will grant you. Wells and Clement for Pedro and Lowe is about even. Clement has upside, but I think it is just as possible that he could find his ERA balloning in the AL and Wells rubber arm will be 42 in May.

The Braves may have gotten a new closer, but will Smoltz be good at starting once again? Where are they going to make up the offense lost with JD Drew? Has Chipper Jones peaked?

Everyone else seems to have either gotten worse or at best held ground.

xpost

Joe Sheehan provides some doom for Dahlem:

"If it ends up that the Yankees chose Johnson, Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano instead of Javier Vazquez and Carlos Beltran, they deserve what's going to happen to them."

And why all the sudden is Carlos Delgado not looking to "break the bank" with the Rangers after calling Baltimore's offer "an insult?" My guess: he's not going to play for any of the teams mentioned here, and ends up in Boston or Detroit.

http://rotoworld.com/content/playernews.asp?sport=MLB

Free agent Carlos Delgado could pick Texas over Baltimore and the Mets if the Rangers choose to increase their offer.
The Rangers probably have the smallest bid on the table of any of the contenders for Delgado. "Carlos has great interest in playing in Texas, which we have expressed to the Rangers management several times," agent David Sloane said. "We're not looking for any records, and we're not looking to break the bank."

What kind of money has Delgado been offered?

ha, he must be a real piece of work if that's all he's worth.

Pierzynski may be a head case, but I like that signing for the White Sox. It's a pretty minimal risk for them, and gets them back some of the offense they'll lose if Magglio Ordonez moves on -- and at a more important position. He played well in the AL Central as a Twin, and his .729 OPS last year was a bit of a fluke, I think. PacBell doesn't strike me as much of a hitter's park -- Barry Bonds being the exception that proves the rule. And there's always the possibility that the lack of interest showed to Pierzynski in the FA period this year and his inability to secure a multiyear contract will change his attitude.

On another note, my vote for steal of the offseason is the Red Sox nicking Wade Miller after he was nontendered by the Astros. They took practically no financial risk, have him locked down for two years, and if they can fix his funky mechanics to keep him from injuring himself, he could be a legit No. 2 starter down the road. Not bad.

Derek Lowe anywhere besides LA (or Detroit) = disaster waiting to happen. The fact that he will probably get the $10M/yr he's asking for is mindboggling, unless people are shortsighted & optimistic enough to replace 300+ innings of 5.xx ERA pitching (over the past 2 years) for the 15 innings he threw in last year's playoffs & think the latter's more indicative of what he'll do. DL needs a lot of space with which to work (when those sinkers don't sink) & an infield that can make plays (when those sinkers do sink). Though I thought I remember hearing that Camden Yards is playing less like a hitter's park nowadays, so maybe Baltimore would be a good place for him (assuming Melvin Mora got over the yips that plagued him early last year).

I have no idea what the Rangers are thinking in trying for Delgado - they already have the best infield in the AL (if not the majors). Unless they can turn someone (Soriano? Tex?) into a #1 starter, they shouldn't be sniffing around that stuff. (If Boston wants to start sniffing, though, I won't complain too much.)

Also, re: the AL West - even w/out Hudson & Mulder, the A's are probably going to do what they've always done, & the M's aren't going to be much better than last year (since, as Rasheed noted, their problem was the pitching, which is still poised to be the colossal suck).

How many days until pitchers & catchers report??!?

fucking fuck fucker

Wow, a whole 3% attendance increase, which has everything to do with the Astros making an unprecedented playoff run and little to do with Beltran's specific drawing power.

And even if the attendance increase was entirely due to him, it's an extra 1K per game, which isn't going to cover the $105M they were offering him.

Jim Edmonds (88.9) - $10.0M
Carlos Beltran (74.5) - $17.0M (est.)
Johnny Damon (51.0) - $8.5M

-- John (johndahle...), January 10th, 2005.

Boo hoo. You follow a team that is a perennial contender and which has been in the World Series what, 5 or 6 times in the last 10 years? Plus they seem to have an almost limitless supply of cash... (not that they seem to spend it very wisely - what is it with NY teams and overspending?)

By John

I don't believe the Mets are guaranteed more than .500 at this point, but rasheed, you have to figure in the added value of a full season of David Wright ... and, if they get lucky, Reyes, Benson and Victor Z. (not that one or two of those might not be permanent disappointments).

As for the pitching: I'm a fan of Victor Zambrano, especially as a No. 4, even though to this day the fact that Jim Duquette gave up Kazmir to get him makes my head hurt (imagine Martinez-Glavine-Benson-Kazmir-Trachsel). Benson I'm not so sure about, even though I have no real sound statistical basis to think that he'll be anything other than a very solid No. 2 or 3. As for Martinez, I remember hearing some commentators talk about how some of Pedro's late-season control problems last year might have been related to his adjustment to once again pitching at full strength -- that he had altered his mechanincs slightly to compensate for playing hurt over the last few years and that as he got stronger he was slower to adjust than he should have been. His throwing at 92+ at times in the ALCS and World Series lends some credibility to this theory, but who knows. There's also a lot of talk about his allegedly "90% torn" labrum.

Sheehan -- I chortle as I paste:

"The Mets have had the best offseason of any team, not just this year, but in recent memory. By ignoring the middle class and focusing on getting the best players they could, they've improved by 10 to 15 wins, vaulting to the top of the NL East mix.

If New York is a Mets town again in 2007, it will be the decisions made this winter by the two teams that made it that way. The Yankees' mistakes directly benefited the Mets, and that they took advantage is a credit to Fred Wilpon and Omar Minaya. For the first time in a long time, the best front office in New York may be located in Queens."

"The Mets have had the best offseason of any team, not just this year, but in recent memory. By ignoring the middle class and focusing on getting the best players they could, like Mike Cameron, they've improved by 10 to 15 wins, vaulting to the top of the NL East mix."

"The Mets have had the best offseason of any team, not just this year, but in recent memory. By ignoring the middle class and focusing on getting the best players they could, like Cliff Floyd, they've improved by 10 to 15 wins, vaulting to the top of the NL East mix."

"The Mets have had the best offseason of any team, not just this year, but in recent memory. By ignoring the middle class and focusing on getting the best players they could, like Mo Vaughan, they've improved by 10 to 15 wins, vaulting to the top of the NL East mix."

"The Mets have had the best offseason of any team, not just this year, but in recent memory. By ignoring the middle class and focusing on getting the best players they could, like Bobby Bonilla, they've improved by 10 to 15 wins, vaulting to the top of the NL East mix."

Three or four again? Well four guys is something, I guess. I suppose LA should just be grateful they unloaded his horrendous contract.

as per the mets, while neither move is terrible it's easy to see how either could become serious deadweight for a seriously long time. i dunno, seems well worth it to me but it's not my money/team.

Carlos Beltran: 27

Pedro Martinez: 33
Tom Glavine: 37
Mike Cameron: 31
Cliff Floyd: 30
[Carlos Delgado: 33]

Mo Vaughn: 34
Bobby Bonilla: 29 / 36 (ha!)

"One of these things is not like the other..." (though it might be in 4/5 years)

BTW - what NY's (nominal) CFs will be making this year
Beltran - $17M
Bernie - $12.5M

The Pedro contract presents a similar problem for the Mets, I think. There is just no way they are getting four solid years out of him. Even if he starts the contract in relatively good health, he's fragile. Plus, if the Mets don't win right away, his attention is likely to wander and he might even bark for a trade -- whereby the Mets are likely to have to eat a sizable part of his salary. So Wilpon is probably at the end of the day paying Martinez more like $26 or $27 million a year for performance.

My fave thing about the Unit-cameraman nonsense is "Don't talk back to me." I guess he doesn't have a noblesse oblige clause.

ED FUCKING KOCH!
W. T. F?

Fucking Riccardi. He better pull of this Hillenbrand thing that I've been hearing rumours about.

I wish I could just turn on some hockey (World Juniors notwithstanding) and ignore all this.

i wouldn't get too excited about shea.

i wouldn't get too excited about shea.
I am also aware of this - but it would be nice to have someone on the team that's played SOME 1st base!
Plus, I only became aware of his "colourful personality" ("Trade me faggot") after my last post.

$500,000

http://rotoworld.com/content/playernews.asp?sport=MLB

Koch as a hard-thrower to burn through some righties in the 7th or 8th, preferably w/ bases empty = not too shabby. Koch as your save guy, or your guy in a bases-filled situation = you get what you deserve. This pickup is in the same realm as the BoSox's transaction involving Matt "Mickey" Mantei - if he pans out, super duper; if not, whatever. Though I would think the Jays would do s'more scouring & scavenging before dropping nearly a million on a "proven veteran".

Tony Batista getting $7.5M overseas = HOLY CRAP!

Fuck a bunch of Tom Hicks. He got roasted on drivetime radio today because he said that shipping off A-Rod gave them room to acquire veteran talent - only now he's tying major free agent acquisitions (ie Delgado) to shipping off Soriano to keep the payroll close to even. I hope they go 60-102 this year and he loses the Stars forever.

Also, they can hit a lick, too, & probably have the best infield in the AL, & still will even when / if they trade Soriano. Delgado is not needed @ all - he'll only be taking ABs away from either Texeira (right!) or DH-to-be Adrian Gonzalez (or maybe Texeira's the DH - I have no idea re: their defensive reputations), and unless either of those kids can fetch some upper-tier pitching, I'd rather have the kids.

Also also, the outfield - the weak spot in their lineup - gets a kick in the pants via their signing of Richard Hildago; full seasons of Delucci / Mench in LF, Nix / Delucci in CF, & Hildalgo in RF could be quite sexxxy. To be honest, I have no idea how they got 89 wins last year, given the shatty quality of their pitching, and I hesitate to give Buck any credit (because I'm like that). Orel's work, especially w/ the relievers, is probably a year or two away from being touted as Mazzone-esque.

However, unless they can flip Soriano for a solid pitcher - which is really all they need to succeed, at least in the regular season - I can picture them coming down to the Mariners' level. It seems like, this year, w/ the way the batting orders (hott!) & the pitching rotations (not so hott...) are shaping up, the AL West is REALLY going to beat the crap out of itself.

oh, wait...what was that? oh, yeah. it's dc's fault.

man, i really have a serious dislike for petey pete.

xpost

Geez.

Kinda discouraging: Delgado will "stand for" whatever nationalist hooey his new team wants him to...

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets154116223jan15,0,7166561.story

(I might lose some respect if he accepts 3y/37M without a fight, FFS, JD Drew got 4y/40M!)

Neither have I, I guess.. I'm just a little sad that he'd feel like he couldn't continue to stand behind those positions playing for a US team. Which is really our culture's problem more than it is his.

MIR, if it wasn't for the fact that:

- Delgado's a first baseman
- Delgado's 3 years older than Drew (but only 3! that's surprised me!)

I'd agree w/ you.

Would someone PLEASE slap the Rangers upside the head and make the GM eat Mark Texeira's stat sheet from last year? If they're bitching about $$$$ issues, then they should not even think of signing Delgado when they have TWO (yes, TWO) 1B that can play full-time! Like, duh! And I'm going to keep on saying it because this just makes me so OFIOAU!

Brad Fullmer (65)
Eric Young (23)
Herbert Perry (21)
Brian Jordan (17)
Kevin Mench (14)
David Dellucci (9)
Chad Allen (5)
Alfonso Soriano (3)
Michael Young (2)
Mark Teixeira (2)
Andy Fox (1)
Adrian Gonzalez (1)

(See what I did there?)

- Delgado's a first baseman
- Delgado's 3 years older than Drew (but only 3! that's surprised me!)

Drew has had one good season (if you call 31 HR, 93 RBI good for a guy making 10M/yr). Delgado has had seven straight 900+ OPS seasons, including at least two MVP-quality years. Drew is injury-prone. Delgado is not -- last year was the only one in which he missed significant time due to injury, and he put up monster numbers once he came back healthy (so he's not showing any signs of slowing down at 32).

AFAIC, Drew is a monsterously larger risk at that salary, with a four year contract, compared to Delgado.

I guess for progressive athletes, I'll have to settle for my NBA boyfriend, Steve Nash, sweetly profiled in yesterday's NYT (he's reading Che's book and the Communist Manifesto)... who's Canadian, natch.

the orioles have now added blockbuster signing bionic tony saunders. way to go. actually, i think osuna is a solid signing for the nats pen, though...kind of cancelled out by the signing of esteban loaiza. ack.

Seattle addresses their pitching holes with ... Aaron Sele.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1970632

And supposedly Mulder and Hudson were the worst defensive pitchers so there you go.

But seriously, Mike Cameron can hit and is an excellent centerfielder (Ichiro STILL misses MC). Discounting the upside, I think Byrnes' and Cameron's career OPS are both around .800.

And Bradford's supposedly not part of the trade.

From my understanding, Cam has only 1 year left, is a decent enough hitter (what's his line the last few years - .260 / .350 / .450?) whose value is boosted overall because of his defensive prowess (hey, look, received knowledge!) (though he looked VERY BAD @ times last year - dunno if it was injuries or what). Also, there's the very real possibility that Byrnes' year (or last two years) = fluke.

2005 ALROY Nick Swisher

I don't trust that Beane...

Still gax, this is not a done deal!

Byrnes is a good 3-1/2th-4th outfielder.

I don't recall Beane rooking the Mets aside from Billy Taylor for... *loses consciousness*

Also, I just Googl'd re: Billy Taylor - ouch.

Overall the Indians have improved a bit on paper. Enough to contend, I don't know about that one. It seems the Twins and Sox are not getting any better, so they might have a shot.

wapo and bawlamer sun report delgado has eliminated tx, mets have dropped out, o's & marlins remain.

spinsanity!

"Want some pitchers to worry about? One key negative "tell" from the classic book 'The Diamond Appraised' is a declining strikeout rate year after year.Here's the list of pitchers who had more than 20 starts in each year from 2002-2004 and had declining K/9 in that period: Matt Morris, Kerry Wood, Brian Anderson, Miguel Batista, Curt Schilling, Kaz Ishii, Odalis Perez, Javier Vazquez, Livan Hernandez, Russ Ortiz, Josh Beckett, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Al Leiter, Brett Tomko, Randy Wolf, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Pedro Martinez, Sidney Ponson, Jon Garland and Mike Mussina."

(i know that only partially answers your question, but i think there was payroll issues)

I dare say the NL East race is actually going to be a good one this year! The Braves might only take it by 5!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1975414

Maybe they'll put the Bosox WS ball on display at Shea! Or he'll hafta platoon with a reborn Galarraga and/or flukish Jason Phillips.

As in, "With Minky, the Mets' infield defense will be vastly improved."

Or as in, "Dr. Morbius will get defensive if folks razz about the Mets acquiring a no-hit tarp."

gee. what do you think the chances are he plays all 4 years in florida?

2004: $4M
2005: $17M (cum: $21M)
2006: $18M (cum: $39M)
2007: $13M (cum: $52M) - i'm assuming it's a team option?

Mets gave up their #4 prospect for Mink. Still, I didn't realize DM's career OBP is still .363.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primer/blogpen_discussion/25915/

PUDGE SIGNED A ONE-YEAR DEAL! They backloaded a one-year contract? OMG WTF ROFFLE

maybe arthur anderson doe stheir acocunting?

...thanks, i'll be here all night folks.

"Manny Ramirez was on our flight from Santiago, DR, to Miami. I didn't go up to him in the airport, but he seemed totally accessible and was really friendly to everyone who came up to him.

Didn't catch any games while I was there, but I saw parts on TV. Tejada was killing everyone. Eric Byrnes looked gimpy and uncoordinated."

The Pirates owner seems to think there is some shady accounting going down.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-pirates-mcclatchy-salarycap&prov=ap&type=lgns

just getting this now, but man, potato-head gedman is homegrown man! he's from worcester! so, y'know, he was probably in the area, working for the boylston dpw or something.

Haha, shades of "Why re-sign Maddux when we can get Jose Guzman and a carload of assholes?" with this "Beltran's too expensive" business.

intriguing talk from Brewers insiders: Carlos Lee played 3b in the minors and is apparently really good there

problem, once again: pitching. Sheets, then whoever else shows up; concern about lack of Kolb, but we think we got it covered with Mikey Adams

If Lee played 3rd, who'd play LF? Or would they flip Mr. Favre from RF to LF to (hopefully) keep him from getting hurt? (Not that such
a move would automatically keep the guy safe.)

Also, the way Kolb was throwing (& not K-ing guys when throwing), it's better the Brewers cut bait when they did. Do they still have Luis Vizcaino? - he was 10 types of buttass last year (was he hurt?), but I imagine he could do just fine as a late-inning guy (presuming his case of the suckage isn't chronic).

& who is this Brady Clark character?

Brady Clark is an enigma wrapped in a riddle wrapped in a velvet glove. He's an underrated outfielder, but his bat is STREAKY; he hits a fair amount of game-winners though. He platooned much of last year -- hell, his whole career, so we'll see. He can run a little, too; he's not as speedy as Podsednik, but who is?

*This according to Rob Neyer AND Bill James.**

**I may have made this up.

*HI DERE

or maybe "harmacy," not sure, must consult Robo-Uecker

EWWWW.

The Blue Jays are changing the name of Skydome to the "Rogers Centre"

(Rogers = Ted Rogers, whose conglomerate owns the team and, as of a few months ago, the stadium as well)

The Trigger Cafe would ROCK!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1985108

Fare ye well, my sliding-catching friend...

How bizarre. Never heard of anything like that. And Boras accepted it?? I guess it's great for Maggs if he does in fact stay healthy. We shall see.

WTF indeed! I'm not gonna call it that. It's a dome, not a centre. Fuck you Rogers, either put more money into the team or lower the price of cable!

It was almost a point of pride for me, that our stadium hadn't succumb to the corporate branding of anything you could fit a logo onto. Worst offseason ever.

Vernon Wells
Alexis Rios (though he's still unproven)
Josh Phelps (jury's still out, of course)
Kelvim Escobar (?)

... and a lot more semi-notable folks than what I'm coming up with. Granted, none of those guys are Junior Felix, but who the hell is?

It's Bo b/c he plays both baseball and football, I take it. He's a Bermanism waiting to happen.

Also, if you REALLY want to push things, there's that would-be phenom SS currently on the Reds that's supposedly "washed up" at the ripe old age of 25. (Is his name Felipe Lopez?)

Rich Aurilia?

Ha ha! Lopez, forgot about him. If we're going to be reaching into the bargan bin why not mention Mr. Cesar Izturis!

I guess now my question is (re: the Jays) - who were their shit-hot prospects from the 80s & 90s?

70s / 80s: (I'm really not sure on any of these)
Tony Fernandez
Tom Henke
Dave Steib
Jesse Barfield (?)
Kelly Gruber (woo!)
Garth Iorg (?)

90s / early 00s:
Carlos Delgado
Shannon Stewart
Jeff Kent
Pat Hentgen (for a brief while)
Mike Timlin
Ed Sprague (woo woo!)

From what I can recall, the meat of their championship teams (Robbie Alomar / Joe Carter / Devon White / David Cone) (& Mitch Williams -ha!) came from other organizations.

Pat Borders
David Wells
Mark Whiten
George Bell (drafted by Phillies, came up as a Blue Jay)
Fred McGriff (drafted by Yanks, came up as a Blue Jay)
Juan Guzman (drafted by Dodgers, came up as a Blue Jay)
Jimmy Key
Todd Stottlemyre
John Olerud (came pretty much straight out of college)

Add in some of the players listed above and that is pretty good for a 8 to 10 year run (like 85 to 92) of player development.

as for 90s & aughts, don't forget...jay gibbons!

okay, you can forget him.

STRICKEN FROM THE RECORD (if we're talking strictly about players drafted by the Jays, which I was). Not that I'm knocking the front office's knack for recognizing talented players in other orgs and/or fleecing the Yankee farm system (which, in the '80s, was required by the Collective Bargaining Agreement).

But, yeah, I think the Jays' farm system now is comparable to what it was - the only problem is the guys they acquire from outside of their system (either through trade or through free-agent signage). And the lack of developed starting pitchers. And having to play in a division w/ the two most lucrative franchises in all of baseball, if not all of American professional sports. And Skydome doing double duty as a vacant lot between April & October. And the team's inability to stick w/ a uniform design & logo for more than 2 years before coming up w/ a worse design. Otherwise, thumbs up, Canada!

I would still give the Jays credit for getting that talent out of the other teams minor leagues as there are bunches of players traded around that never do much at all. Whatever they were doing in late 80s early 90s worked, they were a perennial contender and won two championships. Some teams seem to develop one or two positions pretty well but the Jays came up with players all over the diamond.

bo was the chicago sun-times high school athlete of the year a few years ago, he seems pumped at the opportunity to play for the cubs.

Pitchers and Catchers report today for about 1/3 of MLB (Astros, Braves, Devil Rays, Giants, Indians, Marlins, Phillies, Pirates, Redsox, Rockies and Tigers).