It is now time to fall in love with the King, Felix Hernandez

A far better sportswriter than I (first post):

http://ussmariner.com/?p=2860#comments

pictures:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/28128023@N00/sets/729755/

A fascinating breakdown of what Felix threw, from a Twins blogger:

http://www.sethspeaks.net/

Assuming he's pitching every 5th day, he has the following teams to look forward to:
Angels
Twins
Rangers (in Arlington)
Yankees
Angels
Oakland
etc.

Does anybody care about Zach Duke anymore?

bring it on.

All i'm saying is that Felix has his work cut out of him facing some of the AL's most frustrating (OAK) and powerful (NYY) lineups rather than some mid-pack AL Central also-rans.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4319

i)i assume you mean "take those first SIX starts away and he goes from great to good".

ii)i just think it's silly to say stuff like that, or "he didn't look THAT good against the tigers -- sure he retired 14 of 16 batters but BEFORE that he looked pretty shaky in his first major league inning ever!"

i mean, why so cynical?

this is an xpost.

Much of Duke's ado was made after his first 2 starts:

First 2 starts:
ERA - 1.93
WHIP - 0.93
K/BB - 17:2 (8.50)
K/9 - 10.93

Starts 3-7
ERA - 1.38
WHIP - 1.32
K/BB - 18:10 (4.50)
K/9 - 4.96

There is an unmistakable drop-off in performance with the exception of ERA (which we know is not the best indicator of performance).

ii)i just think it's silly to say stuff like that, or "he didn't look THAT good against the tigers -- sure he retired 14 of 16 batters but BEFORE that he looked pretty shaky in his first major league inning ever!"

I'm talking about sample size; I'd like to see how Hernandez performs against teams in contention rather than a couple mediocre teams before people declare how "great" he is.

The announcement came yesterday that Felix will get one more start against an also-ran (never ran?), pitching Monday vs. Kansas City instead of Sunday against the Angels. So, another chance to build confidence.

To wit: Zachariah allowed 12 baserunners (10 H, 2 BB) in 7.1 IP in his last start (against the Dodgers - Duke, come on), and 4 runs. He also allowed 12 baserunners (8 H, 4 BB) against the Rockies on July 21st, but managed to allow zippo in the run column. (Thank you Rockies!) There's that 1.36 WHIP.

His 3rd worst start was his first one (which gygax include in Zack's OMG peroid) against the Milwaukee Cibulas - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 R, and one of two HRs he's allowed so far.

July 7th: shuts down Philly (@ PNC) - 7 IP, 6 H, 1 BB. July 16th: shuts down Cubs in Wrigley - 8 IP, 6 H, 2 BB. July 27th - only pitches 2 innings against Florida before rain delays force him out. August 1st, against the Bravos: 8.1 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 1 run. Only 2 Ks, tho. And only 4 Ks against the Cubs.

Still, overall: 3 to 1 K / BB ratio, 2 HR in 46.2 IP, 6.75 K / 9 IP, a .254 BAA (comparable to guys like D-Train & J-Schmidt), and on pace for about 50 BB in 200 IP. Not too shabby at all, especially for a 22-year-old, & trying to draw an arbitrary line between his 2nd and 3rd starts to establish some trend is just plain wacky. (It's not likely to continue, but there's nothing he's done to this point that says it can't.)

And there's no doubt in my mind that Felix would make him look like chump change.

I was thinking that ILB is becoming like ILM in the sense that on ILM some average record leaks and people get caught up in the slsk-search/ysi hype and "minds are blown" and 10.0s are given only to find out in due time that it's just an okay record. Occasionally it turns out to be a good record but calmer heads may prevail.

BTW, Felix = LeBron James + Larry Bird + Wayne Gretzky

David Wright = Emmitt Smith + Michael Jordan + Butterball

Zach Duke, Oliver Perez and Todd Van Poppel.

http://www.rootsweb.com/~pahuntin/photos/boring-jas-fam.jpg

SF's stud in waiting is Matt(hew) Cain:

23 Starts 9W - 5L
4.64 ERA (ahem, "hitter-friendly PCL" that doesn't seem to affect the A's prospects)
1.35 WHIP (see above)
10.69 K/9
2.23 K/BB

I just feel like Hernandez would really benefit from five or six years' seasoning in the minors. I don't know why that's so hard to grasp!

is there a desperate need to believe that what we're watching RIGHT NOW is and ALWAYS WILL BE the absolute zenith of the ballplayer's greatness?

right now there's probably equal chances felix ends up prime pedro, aj burnett, or flames out completely. but he is, by almost all accounts, the most exciting pitching prospect to come around in a long time. and as far as i'm concerned to repeatedly deny yrself the chance to appreciate what he's accomplished and is capable of accomplishing in the name of some kind of bullshit levelheaded clarity of mind is a failing on yr part, not some triumph of reason.

I used to be a highly-touted prospect too :(

Hey tiger, all i've said is "wait and see".

I mean I read way too much about Jeff Francis a few years ago and just today he gets roughed up for 9 runs in 3 innings (sure, in Colorado... but 9 runs on only 3 XBHs, none of which left the yard).

(2xpost)

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-next-big-thing/

"Let's wait and see" (ad nauseum).

F. Hernandez (W, 2-1) 8.0 3 1 1 1 11 0 0.86

that's: KKKKKKKKKKKing

God he looked good tonight. That away pitch to righties is a thing of beauty. He got a little bored or tired in the 6th and 7th, getting to a couple of three ball counts, but still, damn. Course his arm could fall off tomorrow, Gygax is not wrong, but in my lost Seattle season, this is about all I have to be cheery about.

6 of the Ks came against the bottom third of the KC lineup, which I cannot be convinced is much different than your garden variety AAA competition.

Sat 20 MIN
Thu 25 TEX
Tue 30 NYY

And if they give him another day's rest it'll be MIN/CWS/NYY. So, progressively more difficult. That seems good, should keep things interesting.

And yes, KC sucks.

i'd like to see him against top competition too but i really think it's all but irrelevant. he's 19, he can have a handicap. AAAA's a natural progression.

so his FB (does he throw 1 or 2) is described as "heavy" - how's the movement?

F-Her's first inning - 11 pitches, 10 strikes, 2 Ks.

"hernandez fans 11"

the curve looks filthy when he let's it drop off the table, but he leaves it up a fair amt even on the strikeouts there, maybe employing it in even counts or after a series of fastballs, i dunno. his change looks like the most underrated pitch in his arsenal - like his fb it tails but it's got quite a bit of sink as well. and to see what his fastball is capable of doing, check out the first pitch shown. inhuman, seriously.

lotsa good stuff, and this was esp. interesting [but you should read the whole post or it might sound way overconfident]:

"The average hitter Felix has faced so far has a season line of .269/.327/.406. Against Felix, they are hitting .153/.191/.153. He has cut the opponents hitters OPS by 53 percent over what they are against the rest of the league. For comparison, Roger Clemens average opponent has a season line of .256/.325/.405, and are hitting .188/.245/.255. Clemens has cut opponents OPS lines by 32 percent. Even adjusting for opponents, Felix has been dominant on a level that no other pitcher in baseball, even Roger Clemens, has matched."

From the USS Mariner:

More Felix Fun
Filed under: Mariners— Dave @ 8:17 am.
Because there’s nothing else on the team that even begins to bring a smile to my face, here’s more musings on the greatness of Felix Hernandez.

Through four starts, King Felix has faced 107 batters and allowed 0 extra base hits. How good is that? He’s tied Mariano Rivera for the fourth longest streak of batters faced without giving up an extra base knock on the season, and if his next start is anything like his first four, he’ll stand alone at the top of the list. Here it is, for those who are curious.

Kyle Farnsworth, 125 batters faced, May 2nd to August 4th
Sergio Mitre, 115 batters faced, May 29th to June 24th
Noah Lowry, 113 batters faced, July 26th to August 17th
Mariano Rivera, 107 batters faced, April 9th to July 2nd
Felix Hernandez, 107 batters faced, August 4th to present

The craziest name on the list (which I got from the awesome Keith Woolner-thanks Keith): Shigetoshi Hasegawa, who faced 76 batters from May 29th to July 29th without allowing an extra base knock. Who knew?

Going back to the past 33 years (all that we have play by play data for), by the way, the record belongs to Bob Welch at 223 batters faced.

Okay, how about something else? The chances of different events occurring in any given at-bat against Felix through his first four starts:

14.95 % chance of a hit
0.00 % chance of an extra base hit
3.74 % chance of a walk
0.93 % chance of being HBP
28.04 % chance of striking out
42.06 % of hitting into a groundout
10.28 % chance of flying out

If you want a comparison, here’s Dwight Gooden’s percentages from his crazy 1985 season, when he won the Cy Young at age 20.

18.59 % chance of a hit
3.66 % chance of an extra base hit
6.48 % chance of a walk
0.19 % chance of being HBP
25.16 % chance of striking out

Opposing batters put up a .201/.253/.270 line against Gooden that season. The average line for the hitters he faced that year was .253/.319/.375. In other words, Gooden knocked 25 percent off a normal hitters line when he faced him. Felix is cutting 53 percent off the average line of the hitters he has faced, turning them into a collection of pitchers. People are hitting .157/.196/.157 against him. That’s… there’s no words for that.

Lets see, what else. Among major league starting pitchers who qualify for the ERA title, here are the league leaders in a few categories, and then Felix’s numbers next to those:

ERA: Clemens, 1.56 - Felix, 1.24
Fielding Independant ERA: Clemens, 2.61 - Felix, 1.60
Component ERA: Clemens, 1.64 - Felix, 0.70 (!)
G/F: Webb, 3.90 - Felix, 4.25
BB/G: Silva, 0.5 - Felix, 1.4
K/G: Peavy, 11.0, - Felix, 10.4
Line Drive %: Lowe, 15.5 percent - Felix, 11.0 percent
Opponents OPS: Clemens, .507 - Felix, .353
WHIP: P. Martinez, 0.89 - Felix, 0.67
Pitches/Inning: Silva, 12.0 - Felix, 13.4 (Felix would rank a measly 2nd in the majors)

Among starting pitchers, his groundball rate is the best in the majors, his strikeout rate is second best, and his walk rate would tie him for sixth best. He’s given up less line drives than anyone else. It’s not even close, actually. His rate of baserunners per innings is off the chart. And he’s doing it with less pitches than everyone other than Carlos “Walks Are A Ticket To Hell” Silva.

How about this one. Game Score is kind of a gimmicky stat developed to summarize a pitchers start in one number (which is almost impossible), but its kinda fun to look at. The highest average game score this year belongs to Roger Clemens (of course) at 66.3. Felix’s average game score? 72.3. His average game score in his last three starts, where he wasn’t on a restrictive pitch count? 77.3.

Through four starts, Felix has been a mutant combination of Randy Johnson’s strikeout dominance, Greg Maddux’s control, Roy Halladay’s efficiency, and Brandon Webb’s groundball rate.

His next start is at home on Friday against the White Sox. Buy tickets. Go to the game. Don’t miss the King in action. Good luck, White Sox.

I'll be at the game Friday. Should be good.

Anyway, you guys can have your rookies because when Halladay comes back I will kick all of your sorry asses.

*23 year-old ChiSox prospect Brian N. Anderson. If he can hit 2 HRs off the "Best Pitching Prospect in baseball", surely he must be equally as impressive? Especially since his Tacos Supremas both came off of Felix's "unhittable" curveballs?

So this Wednesday: King Felix vs. Big Unit in Seattle, I'm gonna try to tune in.

There is no reason for a 19-year-old on a last-place team to go over 100+ pitches in a start after a full season of minor-league work.

MarinerDan (SF, CA): Joe, what is your best prediction for the career path of Felix Hernandez? What's the upside and what is the downside?

Joe Sheehan: I think he'll be one of the five best pitchers in the AL for his next 50 starts or so, then miss some non-trivial amount of time to an arm injury. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

VERSUS RANDY JOHNSON!

MOJO DOJO!

Lots of great quotes in this one:

In the seventh inning against Kansas City, he had a hint of trouble with runners on first and third, two outs and a 3-2 count to Mark Teahen. Catcher Yorvit Torrealba called for a fastball. Hernandez shook him off. Torrealba called for it again and Hernandez shook him off again. "I thought, 'O.K., this is interesting,' " Torrealba said. Hernandez came in with an 84-m.p.h. changeup, striking out Teahen.

"I've caught other young guys before and all they want to do is throw their fastball because that's their best pitch and they can locate it," Torrealba said. "But this guy, for 19 years old, man, that's nice. He's acting like he's been around for a long time."

And yet he still looked pretty good against the Yanqs, his K:BB trend is definitely regressing but WHIP remained solid against one of the most dangerous offensives in the game.

I think I'm gonna go see him on Labor Day.

It was nice of Sterling to jinx Da Unit's no-no, tho - after the bottom of the 5th, he announces that RJ has a no-hitter, and RJ gratiously allows a double in the 6th. Smooooooooth.

-- gygax! (gygax0...), August 22nd, 2005 3:38 PM. (gygax!)

So not only did Bruce Chen outclass King Felix last week, but (as feared) he only lasted 3 innings against the Rangers in Arlington. Can he rebound? I hope so, I took a lot of pix of him in Oakland warming up!

Hmm, how delightfully unnecessary.

http://flickr.com/photos/70149262@N00/sets/72057594085666437/

Shin splints will prevent El Rey from missing his last start of the Spring.

Rob Neyer: (3:33 PM ET ) Sure: he's fine. He made a couple of lousy pitches last week, and on Sunday he gave up two unearned runs that weren't his fault at all. His strikeout rate is excellent, his control's been okay. He's not going to win any awards this season, but I like him just as much today as I did a month ago.

Homeruns vs. Batters Faced:
2005: 1.5% (5/328)
2006: 6.0% (4/67) [The great 2006 home run explosion?]

Pitches per Plate Appearance:
2005: 3.71
2006: 5.97 [Neyer: "his control's been okay". you got that right Robbay!]

BB/9:
2005: 2.45
2006: 3.97 [see above]

Strikeout to Walk ratio:
2005: 3.35
2006: 2.60 [sure his strikeout rate is up but walk rate is up even more]

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS allowed:
2005: .203/.263/.283/.546
2006: .375/.478/.625/1.103 <=YOWZA! probably the most shocking of all the stats IMO

Groundballs vs. Flyballs:
2005: 149/45 = 3.31
2006: 19/14 = 1.36 [ :_( ]

is Felix Hernandez your Dontrelle Willis this year, Steve?

He's not walking too many more batters (maybe one or two more per start compared to last year) but hitters are being a lot more patient with him (taking more pitches) and getting in better swings (hitting more balls in the air). Then again, he's faced some really strong offenses so far this year. Anyway, don't waive him in your fantasy league or anything dumb like that.

Recommendation: "This is a kid who throws 97 [mph], with movement," one scout said. "Why is he throwing the No. 8 hitter a change, curve, change? With his stuff, he can blow guys away. It's the best way, if you can do it. And he can do it." Generally speaking, Hernandez used his curveball as his outpitch last season after first setting up hitters with his fastball. He seems, at times, to be working backward from that formula this year. If that is indeed the case, it is easily corrected.

Total bullshit, but post-worthy.

Mariners Notebook: M's look for signs of Felix tipping pitches

Orioles appeared to guess right too many times

By JOHN HICKEY, P-I REPORTER

BALTIMORE -- Is Felix Hernandez tipping his pitches?

The Mariners aren't sure, but they are concerned that opposing hitters may have spotted something to tell what the next pitch is going to be.

The possibility arose during the five innings Hernandez pitched Saturday night in Camden Yards. He gave up four runs and eventually got the win as Seattle rallied for an 8-6 victory. At the same time, he put 13 men on base and was in constant trouble.

"The answer is that we don't know," manager Mike Hargrove said Sunday. "We were talking about that last night. It sure seems like they took a lot of close breaking pitches.

"And they were right on breaking pitches when it wasn't a breaking pitch situation. It got us wondering."

Orioles hitters were right much of the day on fastballs, too, seemingly more than random chance could account for.

Pitching coach Rafael Chaves said that if Hernandez is tipping, it's not something huge. But like at a professional poker table, even a little tip can be a big advantage to the other side.

"I saw some things that had me wondering," Chaves said. "It was nothing so blatant that you could see it right away, nothing where you could say that's the reason why they did so well against him."

Part of the trouble is that the best way to tell if a pitcher is tipping his pitches is from the batter's perspective. You can't see everything from the dugout. And the video of Hernandez from Saturday's game was exclusively from behind him, looking in at the hitter.

"It's easier here in the big leagues for hitters to pick up something the pitcher might be doing," Chaves said, "especially with all the technology available. We'll be looking at whatever we can. I've got some video work ahead of me."

yes

Felix Hernandez
Wins: 1
Losses: 3
ERA: 5.06
WHIP: 1.61
K: 28
BB: 12

Livan Hernandez
Wins: 1
Losses: 3
ERA: 5.49
WHIP: 1.50
K: 25
BB: 9

Scott (seattle): what's up with felix?

Joe Sheehan: I watched every pitch of his last two starts, because I was wondering about that myself. (Caveat: I Am Not A Scout) As best as I can tell, he's having major location issues both in and out of the zone. So he's falling behind in counts and then catching more of the plate than he wants to. His HR and walk rates are way up; so is his BABIP.

I don't think there's anything permanently wrong with him. His velocity looks fine to me, as does his movement. He's just going through what 20-year-old pitchers--hell, 30-year-old pitchers--sometimes go through.

F. Hernandez (L, 2-5) 4.0 11 10 5 2 4 2

The three most important indicators in [evaluating FH] are strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball percentage--and PECOTA has dead-on nailed Hernandez’ performance in each of those categories. The key differences are in the number of base hits that he’s given up, and the number of home runs.

Hernandez' BABIP on the season to date is .359. That’s the sixth-worst performance in the league among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. Although groundball pitchers give up a few extra base hits, that performance is way out of line with what we’d expect out of Hernandez, and almost certainly reflects his bad luck. It’s not like Hernandez is a Carlos Silva type who throws meatballs and telegraphs his pitches.

The inflated home run rate is a bit more of a concern--Hernandez is at nine home runs and counting before Memorial Day, when PECOTA projected him to give up just 11 on the entire season. But it’s much less of a concern than it would be if Hernandez’ groundball ratio had deteriorated with his dinger tally...

What does all of this mean? Well, it means that Hernandez is behaving like a 20-year-old pitcher with all of five months of big league experience to his name. I think opponents are reading the scouting reports and recognizing that, while Hernandez is not averse to throwing breaking balls early in the count, he rarely throws them for strikes. I think Hernandez has such great stuff that he’s never had to make many adjustments. And I think he and Rafael Chaves will sooner or later come up with the necessary counter-adjustments, whether it means making his slider a bit more of a strike pitch, throwing more first-pitch fastballs, or something else.

In short, I think Felix Hernandez is going to be fine...If [he] were a stock, his share price might have declined by six or eight percent since the start of the season--not more than that. No, I wouldn’t trade Felix Hernandez for Cole Hamels. Justin Verlander--that might be a different story.

Stat / Actual / PECOTA
BB / 9.1% / 9.1%
K / 22.0% / 21.7%
GB% / 69.1% / 66.7%

Nate Silver: The figure I used was extrapolated from ESPN.com. ESPN lists only two times of outcomes: groundballs and flyballs.

Hardball Times lists four types of outcomes: GB, FB, popups, and linedrives.

Neither method is inherently "right", but the Hardball Times method (and we used something similar in BP2006) will result in systamatically lower GB percentages.

"Kudos", as TDeLong might utter.

Hope you're in like an 8 team, non-keeper league.

Jun  8       The Minneapolis Star-Tribune's Joe Christensen reports Minnesota Twins SP Francisco Liriano (stomach) came down with food poisoning after he went to dinner with Seattle Mariners SP Felix Hernandez and went to the emergency room early Wednesday morning. But he should be fine. 

Very interesting...

Haikunym OTM!

Only one pitcher in baseball has given up more tacos per fly ball than FeHan? Up until yesterday the King was numero uno.

Jim Callis: (2:12 PM ET ) I believe they have him on a 200-inning limit, counting spring training. Unless they're still in contention, I don't believe they'll allow him to exceed it. Which makes sense. Don't fire those bullets unless you have to when it comes to such a talented, young arm.

Recommendation: Earlier reports said Hernandez was in the best shape of his career, but losing 20 pounds makes that a bit more believable. He's at 226, four pounds below the Mariners' goal, after an offseason in which he changed his diet, eating more vegetables, and a daily exercise program.

Will Carroll: Peavy by far, on both counts.

I think Hernandez was so hyped last season that his performance is perceived as worse than it actually was. He was basically a league-average starter with pretty good peripherals (24 Stuff score, far above average). After some early-season issues with hit rate and home-run rate, both of those figures came down to expected ranges, and with them, his ERA. I see no reason why the projections from a season ago can’t be Hernandez’s baseline for '07. He’s the only pitcher other than Johan Santana I can see deserving the AL Cy Young Award.

oh man as if the local bloggers didn't have big enough heads already:

An excited-sounding Felix Hernandez credited some unusual scouting help for his return to dominance.

Hernandez was back to his old self Saturday, two-hitting the Oakland Athletics over eight innings of a 4-0 Mariners win that has pushed the division rivals to the brink of falling out of contention. In the clubhouse afterward, explaining the possible reasons for a revived mound form not seen since April, the 21-year-old threw out a tribute to a Web site run by Mariners fans.

On June 27, the "U.S.S. Mariner" site had published an open letter to Seattle pitching coach Rafael Chaves, imploring him to get Hernandez to throw fewer fastballs early on. Chaves was handed a printout of the Internet posting, which contained detailed analysis of Hernandez's pitch sequences, by someone in the stands and later showed it to the pitcher.

link to article pls.

weird how they switch over to AP for old game reports. well, this one has a mention of it:

http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2007/07/hernandez_keys_40_win.html

and the original post

http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/27/an-open-letter-to-rafael-chaves/

Bryan (Hyattsville): Thoughts on King Felix for this year?

Joe Sheehan: Love him. He's probably going to take a step forward in his command this season, lop off 20 walks or so. Throw in some regression in BABIP, and you've got a Cy Young contender.

I was kinda O_o that Yovani Gallardo (6 weeks older than King Felix) has a higher VORP projection for 2008.

Both have Jeremy Bonderman as #1 comparables.

THE KING!

WOW

His grand salami off Santana was the first homer ever by a Mariner pitcher.

OW

That sucks.

WITH HIS SECOND-INNING GRAND SLAM, SEATTLE'S FELIX HERNANDEZ BECAME THE FIRST AMERICAN LEAGUE PITCHER TO HIT A GRAND SLAM SINCE CLEVELAND'S STEVE DUNNING ON MAY 11, 1971.

SEATTLE'S FELIX HERNANDEZ LEFT THE GAME IN THE FIFTH INNING DUE TO A LOWER LEFT LEG INJURY.

what an apocalyptically strange double twist that was.

http://www.bensakoguchi.com/pics/oc-sakoguchi-87-sadaharu-oh-henry-aaron-hank-baseball.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d08gfZpnDA4

hi dere

someone tipped me off about this and jsut said "are you still at work? tune in to sea-tb now"

caught the last inning

best birthday ever

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

god damn i love this man

Bryan Armen Graham‏@BryanAGraham

Two perfect games in the same ballpark in the same season for the first time in the 143-year history of Major League Baseball.

"I've been working so hard to throw one and there it is -- for you guys."

Dave Sims' scorecard, a thing of beauty:

http://twitter.com/TheDaveSimsShow/status/235908401199206400/photo/1/large

Off-the-wall theory from Posnanski about the proliferation of perfect games: that the "proliferation of sports and sports highlights on television" incentivizes/inspires people to do things like throw perfect games.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.ca/2012/08/following-hornby.html#more

(Skip to part III.)

Felix vs. other young workhorses (2000 IP by age 28):

http://www.highheatstats.com/2014/06/king-felix-long-may-he-reign/#more-21847

Sutton/Blyleven/Roberts at the best-case end of the spectrum, the likes of Joe Coleman and Larry Dierker at the other.

He'll be pitching for a record next time: 14th consecutive start of 7+ innings and two or fewer runs. (Just tied Seaver.) Felix/Sale/Kershaw/Wainwright had a pretty decent weekend: 31 IP, 18 H, 6 BB, 32 K, 1 ER, 0.29 ERA.

He seems well on his way. 4.0 IP and no runs (and no hits, and no walks and jesus christ)

He got it, but boy it was close.

I guess it's fitting that he'd do it in a game that he loses. (Obviously, not a knock on Felix.)

Even with the record, and being second in the league in IP, he still doesn't have a CG this season (or last season, FWIW).

the streak continues!

maybe trout'll lose the MVP one more time

maybe he'll deserve to

whilst moving i found the newspaper clipping from when he threw his perfect game!

SweetSpot linked to this piece this morning:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/felix-hernandez-and-the-al-mvp/

"Trying to find a common thread of logic and reason in how the BBWAA has treated starting pitchers in the MVP voting is basically futile."

I'm sure if Trout continues at something close to his present pace, he'll win this year.

7+ innings and two or fewer runs

cherrypicked nonsense

if their numbers stay about the same, Trout shd be MVP and Felix Cy -- any other result is trolling, esp assuming Angels make the postseason

I agree it's a bar that puts Felix in the best possible light--No Time basically made the same point above--but it wasn't cherry-picked for him; Cueto's streak was a story earlier in the year. I definitely disagree with nonsense. I'd like to see the winning percentage for teams where the starter goes at least seven and gives up two or fewer runs--extremely high, would be my guess. (.750 at least? I don't know.) If nothing else, it's a better definition of quality start than the current 6+/3-.

it does. and while i told a friend of mine that this streak is one of those things baseball fans/writers conjure up to have something to talk about – it doesn't make it any less impressive. what he's doing is not easy and it's certainly no fluke.

Extremely small sample, but I checked the Indians for this year. I picked them as being a perfectly average team: 60-60, close to the league average in both runs scored and runs allowed. Here are their pitchers when meeting the 7+/2- threshold (I don't think Felix's streak differentiates between earned and unearned runs, so I simply stuck to runs allowed):

Kluber -- 9-4
Bauer -- 1-0
Masterson -- 5-0
Tomlin -- 1-0
McAllister -- 1-0
Salazar -- 0-1
------------------
Overall -- 17-5 (.773)

Conceding it's such a small sample, I wouldn't want to read too much into it. But it is close to what my guess was, and it jibes with what seems like common sense to me: taking your team into the 8th inning and only giving up either 0, 1, or 2 runs is extremely valuable--in terms of winning, and in terms of not wearing out your bullpen.

If the rest that such a starter gives the bullpen is so valuable, it might be interesting to throw out all such starts and compare team winning percentages in all their other games.

Yeah, I'm probably making a conventional-wisdom assumption there. I wouldn't look at the team's winning pct. in other games--if it's .773 in the well-pitched starts, it'll be worse than normal in the rest of their games--but rather just the bullpen ERA or WHIP or something. The difference may in fact be minimal, or not exist at all.

Whatever you want to measure is fine by me, but it'd be interesting to see if there's a measurable secondary benefit to having a Felix in non-Felix starts.

better wording: a measurable secondary benefit in non-Felix starts on teams that have a Felix.

I'll see how ambitious I am...I might just look at the Mariners during Felix's streak: maybe their performance in non-Felix games during the streak vs. their performance the rest of the year. It might at least indicate whether the conventional wisdom applies in this one case.

kind of like how they measured the "dicky effect" on how hitters were worse the day after facing him? (i realize tho the cause and effect is different in this case)

xp -- I wasn't asking you specifically to do the work! Just saying that that would be interesting data, whether the Felix's name happens to be Felix or Halladay or whatever.

As opposed to the "dick effect," which measures the behaviour of people after listening to Rush Limbaugh all afternoon.

xp -- kinda, yeah.

What seems obvious is that the benefit of bullpen rest isn't best measured on days they're resting, but on days they're working.

Nah, I like doing this stuff for my own curiosity. The main thing is, you've got to look into it. I said Felix helps his bullpen, when if fact I have no idea if that's true or not.

I like thinking about advanced metrics but am terrible at writing about them, just for the record.

Another thing that seems self-evident to me is that if there is a benefit to having strong 7+/2- starters, it's going to show up in the long relief and setup guys. When Superstarter goes 7+, the closer is at least as likely, if not more likely, to make an appearance, so he's not getting any of that rest.

True--the benefit, if it exists, would seem to go to your middle relievers.

I like something like this because it doesn't require advanced metrics at all. You just have to design the comparison in a way that makes sense, then you're working with basic measures like ERA or WHIP. WAR and Win Probability and such--the actual calculation of them--is way beyond what I can do. (Although I get the feeling WP is not difficult to calculate, just time-consuming.)

Watching the baseball game with my dad tonight, I had to teach him what a shortstop was. He knows absolutely nothing about baseball. He asked me what would be considered a good pitching performance and I told him that 7 innings with less than 2 runs is, rule of thumb, a pretty good pitching performance.

Cool story VHS.

I told him that 7 innings with less than 2 runs is, rule of thumb, a pretty good pitching performance.

Make sure to tell him you know a place where people take days debating the validity of such statements. (True of baseball fans in general.)

and it ends.

Felix, Kluber, Kluber, Felix?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-the-al-cy-young-voting-reflect-that-the-race-is-dead-even/

i knew Kluber was having a good season – but had no idea it was *that* good. where the hell did this season come from anyways?! his minor league numbers gave no real hint he was this type of pitcher.

Sorry, fellow Jays fans; tonight I root for Felix.

i'm rooting for a 1-0 10th inning J's victory.

oh. just turned on the game - J's already scored.

Chris Mosch, BP:

The rare implosion by Hernandez resulted in not only the most runs he had allowed in a single inning this season, but also the most he had surrendered in a single game all year. The eight total earned runs Hernandez gave up tied a career worst for the right-hander and his ERA jumped from a league-leading 2.07 to 2.34.

Not only did Hernandez’s worst outing of the season drop the Mariners three games behind the Royals for a wild card slot with just five remaining, it also loosened his grasp on the Cy Young Award race, which he appeared to have all but wrapped up a month ago. After last night’s start, Corey Kluber holds a 2.39-to-2.60 FIP advantage while pitching just three fewer innings. Last night’s blowup by Hernandez also narrowed the gap in ERA between the two, despite Hernandez pitching in front of a much better defense and to a superior receiver behind the dish. Cleveland’s ace will have a final chance to sway the voters Saturday night against the Rays.

If I were voting for any award that came down to two closely matched players, and one of them was having a potentially fluke year and the other had a well established level of excellence, I'd always vote for the established player. But at this point, Kluber has probably pulled away enough that I'd feel okay voting for him.

klubes has more fWAR than kershaw (by 0.1)

hughes and lester have more than felix

what a disappointing second half

ERA *really* sucks as an "authoritative" stat.

Hernandez has a chance to take the AL ERA title Sunday. A scoring decision Saturday charged Hernandez with an error in Tuesday's 10-2 loss at Toronto, a play originally called a hit. The change removed four earned runs from Hernandez's record, dropping his ERA from 2.34 to 2.18 going into his final start of the regular season. Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox, who made his final scheduled start Wednesday, leads the AL at 2.17.

Watch him throw a no hitter today!

It has its limitations, like any stat. Here, I think for the opposite reason of what I'm guessing is behind your post (that it's not right that an seemingly arbitrary ERA title may get Felix the Cy Young): how that one lousy start obscured Felix's great run earlier in the year, and after being thought of as the best pitcher in the league for most of the season, his ERA crosses paths with Kluber's and now he's no longer the favourite. (I.e., if he was the best pitcher before that one start, isn't he still the best pitcher after it? It's one start.)

i really dont give a shit about the Cy Young

"like any stat"

you really just... nm

You're always saying you don't care about stuff you clearly care about, else you wouldn't post so often about them--awards and the HOF at the top of the list.

And here I thought you guys would be complaining about the "narrative" events of the past week and how they will impact the voting:

-- Felix the clear CY winner, with Kluber right behind him
-- Felix blows up against Toronto, Seattle tanks their playoff chances, Kluber dominates in his final start and is looking like the frontrunner for the award
-- Oakland continues sucking, game 162 somehow ends up mattering for Seattle, Felix gets a shot at redemption for his team and a chance to upstage Kluber again

So Felix went from pariah who choked away the CY, to ace pitcher making the most important start of his career, all in less than a week.

He was removed from the game as soon as the A's won.

Aahhh - that's what happened.

Close to a coin flip--for every point you make on one side, there's one on the other. I looked at the game logs and totaled quality starts using the same definition as Felix's streak: 7+ innings, 2 or fewer runs (earned or otherwise).

Kluber: 19/34
Felix: 22/34

Kluber wins on WAR and FIP, Felix on ERA and WHIP. Innings, they're separated by one out, K/BB and run support are also almost even. Kluber had the better September, for sure (after a poor start to start the month), and seeing as both teams were chasing a wild-card spot, I do think that matters. I'd probably vote for Felix for the reason I gave earlier: all things being close to equal, I'd rather vote for the established great player.

Runs allowed depend on too many factors, so I like to look at Game Scores to get an idea of a pitcher's dominance.

Turns out that's more or less a wash too -- Kluber has more dominant starts (GSc > 80) but also more bad ones (GSc < 50), whereas Felix was more consistently good.

is this Cy Young going to com down to fielding? because that would be awesome!

three words for you: arm wrestling contest

many cy youngs have come down to fielding bcz era is a team stat

which is why i vote for kluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuubezzzzzzzzzzzzz

i would vote both Cys by FIP this year since Hamels is not in the NL top 5

4th youngest to 2000 K.

Feller, Seaver, and Clemens the others? (Or maybe Blyleven.)

Only one of the four correct.

tied with orel for 70th all-time

at 29

Ryan surely

wow

Houston - Bottom of 1st	SCORE
Felix Hernandez pitching for Seattle	SEA	HOU
Jose Altuve	Strike (foul), Strike (foul), Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop	0	0
Preston Tucker	Ball, Ball, Ball, Ball, Tucker walked, Altuve to second	0	0
George Springer	Ball, Ball, Springer doubled to right, Altuve scored, Tucker to third	0	1
Evan Gattis	Gattis grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Tucker and Springer scored, Gattis safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Hernández	0	3
Colby Rasmus	Ball, Ball, Strike (looking), Strike (foul), Ball, Ball, Rasmus walked	0	3
Carlos Correa	Strike (looking), Strike (swinging), Ball, Foul, Ball, Strike (looking), Correa struck out looking	0	3
Luis Valbuena	Strike (swinging), Valbuena homered to right center, Gattis and Rasmus scored	0	6
Chris Carter	Strike (looking), Strike (looking), Carter singled to left	0	6
Jason Castro	Ball, Strike (foul), Castro homered to left, Carter scored	0	8
Jose Altuve	Beimel relieved Hernández, Strike (looking), Altuve grounded out to shortstop	0	8
Preston Tucker	Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Tucker singled to center	0	8
George Springer	Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Springer struck out swinging	0	8

The hell happened.

His bad stretch this year guaranteed it wouldn't be one of his better seasons, but he was great last night, and he'll end up with one of those filling-in-the-scenery type years that adds to his bulk numbers and strengthens his HOF résumé. Also making progress towards 300 wins, which, if it ever happens, will make him the latest guy to win 300 after it was obvious there's never be another 300-game winner again.

I was surprised to see that he has 17 wins -- the second highest total of his career -- and has a good chance to win 20 for the first time. I wonder if anyone will write that Felix finally learned how to win (for a mediocre Seattle team that won't come close to making the playoffs) rather than only caring about his personal stats.

highly doubt felix will approach 300

felix is an interesting case. on one hand, he's been a poster child for the sabermetric movement almost since he broke into the league. on the other hand, a lot of his value comes from the old fashioned sense of being so durable and an innings-eater; his per-inning numbers are not really that special

For the HOF, I imagine Felix will be fine with 225-250 wins. By the time he comes up for induction (2030 or so), pitcher wins will be a quaint relic.

I think he has a decent chance, though. He'll have 143-145 at the end of his age-29 season:

Clemens -- 152
Maddux -- 150
Seaver -- 146
Sutton -- 139
Carlton - 133
Glavine -- 124
Ryan -- 122

(No point in even listing Johnson, who didn't have his first really good season until he was 29.) I know that covers different eras, and that at least a couple of those guys go back to 4-man rotations. But he's in line with Maddux and Glavine, and much closer to the former than the latter. If he can bounce back to last year's form, he has a shot; if this year is the beginning of slow decline, no.

Or let's say bounce back halfway; last year was good enough to be something of a blip.

Felix is going to the bullpen. Servais informed him before the game.

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) August 10, 2018

I had no idea he'd been declining so badly

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/exile-for-king-felix/

at least he got that funny strikeout of beltre the other day (before beltre went deep on him) : /

figured this day was coming but it sucks that it happens the one year the Mariners are actually kinda good

this sorta happened to Verlander too but he bounced back, maybe there's hope for the ol' King. he's only 32!

Gets a spot start tonight because Paxton is on the DL

Should have been traded at the end of the 2016 season. He’s been worthless this last couple years.

felix hernandez, 2016-2019

434 IP, 77 GS
26-31, 4.79 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP
7.44 K/9 (19.1 K%), 3.27 BB/9 (8.4 BB%)

so what you're saying is that he'd be the no. 1 starter for the 2019 orioles

Since his debut in 2005, Félix Hernández has made more starts at T-Mobile Park than any other pitcher at any single ballpark.

On Thursday, he will make his final start of the season at T-Mobile Park.

More: https://t.co/91j2vZb9lf pic.twitter.com/Lq4dX4IV5u

— MarinersPR (@MarinersPR) September 23, 2019

Seattle's first glimpse of King Félix. 👑#HappyFélixDay #TBT pic.twitter.com/fsxOEAAFUo

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 26, 2019

is he officially retiring – or is everyone just assuming he's done?

Likely done with the Mariners. He has said that he doesn’t want to retire.

An appropriate send-off from the mariners offense.

Since Felix’s 2010 season, there’s only been 5 pitchers who pitched 240 innings in a single season. Wainwright, Cueto, Price, Shields, Verlander. Except Verlander, it seems like they’ve all come to regret it.

I think Cueto and Price in 2014 will be the lasts.

Royalty. Loyalty. 👑 pic.twitter.com/gF39tVU5Bz

— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 27, 2019

the bulb in my living room lamp went out. i was going to replace it, but it has a dimmer switch and it looks like i don’t have any dimmer bulbs. i’ve tried screwing in a standard bulb but it popped after just a couple days. i figure i’ll hold off until i can go buy the right bulb

— Jon Bois (@jon_bois) July 3, 2020

Check out the replies.

:D

He’s got a strong dog game
https://i.postimg.cc/Jz7LHxDR/IMG-2906.jpg