Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election

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I've never trusted those Zogby Interactive numbers much, but I trust them even less after a lot of Freepers signed up as respondents in between this survey and the previous one.

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 15:31 (nineteen years ago) link

So, who should we be trusting for our daily poll fix, Gab?

Hilariously confusing stats of the day: Washington Post gives Bush a 54% approval rating (+ incumbent factor = home and dry) while NYT/CBS pegs that figure at 44% (he's dead in the water). Oh, and the Washington Post gives Kerry a 4pt lead in the marginals.

― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 15:36 (nineteen years ago) link

Do polls really mean anything in a race this close? This is a serious question.

― n/a (Nick A.), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 15:45 (nineteen years ago) link

I don't trust any of them, necessarily. Zogby and Ras (and perhaps the new tracking polls from major media and TIPP) seem the most reliable because they change the least frequently and show the smallest margins. Zogby (and CBS/NYT) probably tilts a bit to the left more than other polls, and Ras (and most of the other big-media polls) probably tilts a bit more to the right, but I think all the polls probably tilt a bit further to the right than the electorate, given the cellphone/new-voter/college-student phenomenons, perhaps more than Zogby tilts to the left.

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 15:53 (nineteen years ago) link

slate's election scorecards this week have given me hope

― Yanc3y (ystrickler), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 15:54 (nineteen years ago) link

At the state level, the most reliable are usually the local polls like the Ohio Poll. I look at ARG, Research 2000 and Rasmussen at the state level, trusting the (Republican) latter less than the others. I don't buy automated SurveyUSA polls, and think Mason-Dixon leans way too far right.

The polls I like least - Gallup and the newsmagazines.

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 15:57 (nineteen years ago) link

yeah, the commentary on those scorecards seems to indicate which polls to trust

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 15:57 (nineteen years ago) link

I don't know the background to these organisations, of course, but the fact that Rasmussen has had "Cheney posts narrow win in VP debate" near the top of its News sections for ages (no mention of the presidential debates at all) kinda gave it away.

― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 16:04 (nineteen years ago) link

From another messageboard:

Electoral Vote Winner:
Popular Vote Winner:
House Control:
Senate Control:
Who wins Florida?
Suprise Republican victory:
Suprise Democratic victory:
Scandal State:
Media Blunder State:
Biggest Nader Factor State:
Libertarian Factor State:
Likelihood of capturing Osama?:
Likelihood of US Attacked Factor?:

― Dave B (daveb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 16:11 (nineteen years ago) link

Electoral Vote Winner: Kerry, over 300
Popular Vote Winner: Kerry, over 50%
House Control: Republicans
Senate Control: Tie or Democratic, pending LA runoff and potential Chafee switch
Who wins Florida? Kerry, if the votes are counted
Suprise Republican victory: Minnesota, New Mexico
Suprise Democratic victory: West Virginia, Virginia
Scandal State: don't get it
Media Blunder State: don't get it
Biggest Nader Factor State: Maine, Oregon
Libertarian Factor State: Colorado, Nevada
Likelihood of capturing Osama?: very slim
Likelihood of US Attacked Factor?: how would I know?

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 16:53 (nineteen years ago) link

Possible argument: the fact that no-one has ever polled me on owt means that I should not believe polls till they do.

Ditto, ratings.

― the bluefox, Wednesday, 20 October 2004 16:58 (nineteen years ago) link

Scandal State: meaning vote-counting scandal? where won't there be one?

Media Blunder State: meaning initially called wrong on Election night? Wisconsin

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 17:00 (nineteen years ago) link

yeah, what ned said above about me is correct--we're very excited about missouri's chances. I'll caveat that with a note that I am not specifically working in the Kerry campaign but on behalf of Kerry and other democrats--I'm employed by the dem machine in the city of st louis, and st louis is its own special beast. But I do think that St Louis will be the reason that MO will be a surprise Kerry state. We've got a great ground plan, tens of thousands of new voters, and 85%-95% (depending on the neighborhood) democratic votes. But of course it's also my job to be optimistic.

― teeny (teeny), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 18:26 (nineteen years ago) link

THank you teeny

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 18:40 (nineteen years ago) link

Teeny, St. Louis isn't going to get in trouble again like last time when they kept the polling places open late, are they?

― Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 18:41 (nineteen years ago) link

we shall see! mr teeny will be one of the lawyers at the polls watching for funny business, there will be dozens around the city and more around the state.

― teeny (teeny), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 19:10 (nineteen years ago) link

Yeah! Stick it to the 417!

― Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 19:13 (nineteen years ago) link

haha oh yeah he also says he will tell the folks waiting in line which one of the cars belongs to the republicans holding up the process (word on the street says they plan to challenge every third ballot in democratic wards).

― teeny (teeny), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 19:13 (nineteen years ago) link

hahahah oh next month will be such fun

― Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 19:17 (nineteen years ago) link

two more for Ned - here and here

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 19:41 (nineteen years ago) link

Media Blunder state is the state which is called wrongly on the night leading to all sorts of kerfuffling. Scandal State is the state where there is all sorts of kerfuffling and shennanigans upsetting the Will Of The People (AKA Florida).

― Dave B (daveb), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 22:38 (nineteen years ago) link

Electoral Vote Winner: Kerry, i increasingly think over 300 too
Popular Vote Winner: Kerry
House Control: GOP
Senate Control: tie or GOP, i don't think chaffee jumps
Who wins Florida? Bush
Suprise Republican victory: New Mexico,Wisconsin
Suprise Democratic victory: Arkansas, North Carolina (you heard me!)
Scandal State: Florida
Media Blunder State: Ohio
Biggest Nader Factor State: Maine
Libertarian Factor State: New Hampshire
Likelihood of capturing Osama?: slim
Likelihood of US Attacked Factor?: slim

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 20 October 2004 22:54 (nineteen years ago) link

I've volunteered to be a legal poll observer in Colorado, contingent on finding someone to split the 12 hours with me, which I think I can do. Should be good.

I'm pretty optimistic for Kerry, but I also think that the sudden influx of lefty radio in Denver (Air America and KGNU from Boulder)has skewed my perceptions a bit. I have been sorta shocked by seeing a number of Kerry/Edwards stickers on F150s and SUVs down here in Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties.

― Hunter (Hunter), Thursday, 21 October 2004 03:18 (nineteen years ago) link

Bwahahahaha.

For sign pilferer, politicians aren't only ones falling flat on their face
By Lynn Bartels, Rocky Mountain News
October 19, 2004

A Lakewood Republican stealing campaign signs late one night got nabbed when he ran across a low- hanging driveway chain, fell face first onto a pilfered sign and the concrete and knocked himself unconscious...

― Hunter (Hunter), Thursday, 21 October 2004 03:40 (nineteen years ago) link

I like me the stupid people, I do.

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Thursday, 21 October 2004 03:48 (nineteen years ago) link

Current Electoral Vote Predictor scores:

Kerry 291

Bush 247

― Momus (Momus), Thursday, 21 October 2004 06:35 (nineteen years ago) link

i trust slate ALOT more than that site

― cinniblount (James Blount), Thursday, 21 October 2004 06:39 (nineteen years ago) link

Electoral Vote Winner: Kerry, by ten (or 18 if CO goes for proportional representation, or 20 if Maine is not as close as we think)
Popular Vote Winner: Bush (wouldn't it be funny? Seriously, big bites out of the Dem leads in NJ and NY and hooj margins in the mid-west might do it)
House Control: Rep
Senate Control: Tie
Who wins Florida? Bush (but not really)
Suprise Republican victory: NM
Suprise Democratic victory: TN (that mucks up my figures above, but whatever)
Scandal State: FL
Media Blunder State: PA (called early for Bush, later rescinded)
Biggest Nader Factor State: ME
Libertarian Factor State: CO
Likelihood of capturing Osama?: Zero
Likelihood of US Attacked Factor?: Low

― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Thursday, 21 October 2004 08:38 (nineteen years ago) link

i think there's a real chance bush could win the popular vote and lose the electoral too which will maybe maybe maybe create the circumstances to scrap the electoral college or at least get the process started.

― cinniblount (James Blount), Thursday, 21 October 2004 08:50 (nineteen years ago) link

blount, i think that is what will happen to

― Yanc3y (ystrickler), Thursday, 21 October 2004 13:22 (nineteen years ago) link

It is funny, indeed queer, how optimistic ilx is about all this, and has been for a while.

I hope we, I mean, you, are not whistling in the oncoming ongoing dark.

― the bluefox, Thursday, 21 October 2004 13:36 (nineteen years ago) link

From the Chicago Sun-Times Red Eye (shitty tabloid) today:
57 - Percentage of votes that John Kerry got on Nickelodeon's Web site in a race against George Bush. The poll by Nickelodeon has correctly chosen the past four presidents.

― n/a (Nick A.), Thursday, 21 October 2004 14:15 (nineteen years ago) link

What were the tracking polls like in Sep/Oct 2000? Didn't Gore nearly/actually win from a worse position than Kerry?

PF: I do sometimes feeling we're grasping at straws (like the paragraph in Momus's link upthread which details a study showing how Undecideds in most elections plump for the challenger by a big margin).

The Pennsylvanian Republicans on News 24 last night were surprisingly meek and equivocal - "It's gonna be close" - whereas their Dem counterparts were positively bullish. It does boil down to the GOP's famed ability to rely on their core vote actually voting vs the Dems' wealth of new supporters who may or may not turn up.

― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Thursday, 21 October 2004 14:34 (nineteen years ago) link

Kerry's totally winnin', mang.

― battlin' green eyeshades (Homosexual II), Thursday, 21 October 2004 14:58 (nineteen years ago) link

Mandee makes it all so simple.

― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Thursday, 21 October 2004 16:44 (nineteen years ago) link

Um, no Mandee is kinda wrong.

Proof that ILXors do indeed live in an overtly optimistic world of their own:

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

― Vic (Vic), Thursday, 21 October 2004 16:54 (nineteen years ago) link

haha, are you being serious vic????

― Yanc3y (ystrickler), Thursday, 21 October 2004 16:56 (nineteen years ago) link

Proof that AOL users are fascists!

― Yanc3y (ystrickler), Thursday, 21 October 2004 16:58 (nineteen years ago) link

Vic, there is NO WAY that map is correct. California? Come on.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Thursday, 21 October 2004 16:59 (nineteen years ago) link

it is a straw poll of aol users. How can it not be correct? they are AMERICA, ON LINE! AMERICA, people!

― kyle (akmonday), Thursday, 21 October 2004 17:02 (nineteen years ago) link

Dudez, I'm not in any way implying that America Online = America, but reminding everyone, including myself (who was just as surprised to see that map...I mean even beyond CA fuckin' HAWAII as a red state? ) that ILX is a pretty insular, and relatively marginal community of quite lefty indie kids / rock crits, after seeing all the posts here past few weeks, post-debates, indicating a "we got it in the bag" mentality.

I lurk AOL message boards frequently to amuse myself. And the appalling lack of basic reading/writing comprehension skills reminds me just how unique ILX as an intelligent online community as well as how AOL Users are, sad to say, closer to the typical American when it comes to education, knowledge of world affairs, and political insight. It's also fun to just read them since they're like an exact foil of ILX.

― Vic (Vic), Thursday, 21 October 2004 18:41 (nineteen years ago) link

so you're saying that because stupid, insular people elsewhere are wrong, smart, insular people here are also wrong?

― gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 21 October 2004 18:43 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm getting uncomfortable with how often the incumbent effect is being cited lately (even though I do that too). I mean, no doubt it will have some impact, but, like, for example, sites that do predictions based on formulas shouldn't be incorporating it in there and using it to turn a Bush prediction into a Kerry prediction. I think it should be considered just about the most unknown of the known unknowns.

― Dan I., Thursday, 21 October 2004 18:50 (nineteen years ago) link

http://www.shaggusmachaggis.com/vid/voting_machine.wmv

― j.lu (j.lu), Thursday, 21 October 2004 18:52 (nineteen years ago) link

thanks for being such a BUZZ KILL, VIC.

― battlin' green eyeshades (Homosexual II), Thursday, 21 October 2004 18:57 (nineteen years ago) link

Even the otherwise ideologically pure Sam Wang has jumped on the assigning-undecideds-mostly-to-Kerry bandwagon.

― Dan I., Thursday, 21 October 2004 19:07 (nineteen years ago) link

I am an ilxor, and I live in an overly pessmistic insular fantasy world of my own.

We're going to get battered next weekend and all.

― the bluefox, Thursday, 21 October 2004 19:19 (nineteen years ago) link

no, i believe mandy is right. i have this GUT intuition.

― youn, Thursday, 21 October 2004 19:20 (nineteen years ago) link

sorry, i got so excited i misspelled mandee's name.

― youn, Thursday, 21 October 2004 19:21 (nineteen years ago) link

Yes, it is really 'Amanda'.

That's what is says on her e-mails.

― the bellefox, Thursday, 21 October 2004 19:24 (nineteen years ago) link

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