Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election

I hope we, I mean, you, are not whistling in the oncoming ongoing dark.

PF: I do sometimes feeling we're grasping at straws (like the paragraph in Momus's link upthread which details a study showing how Undecideds in most elections plump for the challenger by a big margin).

The Pennsylvanian Republicans on News 24 last night were surprisingly meek and equivocal - "It's gonna be close" - whereas their Dem counterparts were positively bullish. It does boil down to the GOP's famed ability to rely on their core vote actually voting vs the Dems' wealth of new supporters who may or may not turn up.

Proof that ILXors do indeed live in an overtly optimistic world of their own:

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

I lurk AOL message boards frequently to amuse myself. And the appalling lack of basic reading/writing comprehension skills reminds me just how unique ILX as an intelligent online community as well as how AOL Users are, sad to say, closer to the typical American when it comes to education, knowledge of world affairs, and political insight. It's also fun to just read them since they're like an exact foil of ILX.

We're going to get battered next weekend and all.

That's what is says on her e-mails.

I'm so sick of state's rights.

Last night, Minneapolis. Kerry is the slightly ochre dot in the middle.

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041108&s=editors

by the way, kerry in a landslide. just watch.

I think that I saw this episode of "Hawaii 5-O" just the other night.

Electoral Vote Winner: Kerry
Popular Vote Winner: Kerry
House Control: GOP (the REAL question: how soon before the children begin drafting the impeachment papers wr2 President Kerry?)
Senate Control: tie (pending chaffee's decision wr2 jumping ship) -- which means that w/ VP Edwards, it's Democratic
Who wins Florida? Bush (Jeb = George Wallace, v. 2004)
Suprise Republican victory: Wisconsin (it's joe mccarthy's old stomping grounds, and where bill rehnquist was born)
Suprise Democratic victory: North Carolina (i'm w/ cinniblount here)
Scandal State: Ohio
Media Blunder State: Pennsylvania (it'll be safely Kerry)
Biggest Nader Factor State: either Florida or Maine
Libertarian Factor State: Arizona
Likelihood of capturing Osama?: none
Likelihood of US Attacked Factor?: this year halloween falls on a weekend/ridge will tell us al-qaeda's gonna be trick-or-treatin'

A fiver sez that Tom Ridge will announce next week that "AL QUEDA WILL BE PUTTING RAZOR BLADES IN THE CANDY FOR AMERICA'S CHILDREN: Terror threat raised to Code Orange & Black" or somesuch

On the other hand, if Bush is defeated, his entire presidency will acquire the aspect of an aberration, a mistake that has been corrected, and the American people will be able to say: We never accepted Bushism. We rejected the brutality, the propaganda, the misbegotten wars, the imperial arrogance. And we never, ever chose George W. Bush to be President of the United States.

I'm holding out hope for Arkansas, though.

....well, AIN'T they?