true. the headline of daily mail is asking for the same panic measures bernanke just dished out in the US.
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 13:49 (sixteen years ago) link
though to be fair..i think the media has downplayed the economic situation over the last 6 months (its amazing its taken this long for the stock market to do this!)
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 13:50 (sixteen years ago) link
Who the hell was gambling on the stock market between august and today?
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 13:51 (sixteen years ago) link
Kate McCann?
― Dingbod Kesterson, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 13:54 (sixteen years ago) link
she was too busy shaving
― darraghmac, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 13:59 (sixteen years ago) link
the BBC market data system (the back end that provides live updates of financial markets) has had so many requests today that it has fallen over
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:25 (sixteen years ago) link
http://www.dkimages.com/discover/previews/746/52320.JPG
― darraghmac, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:30 (sixteen years ago) link
basically
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:31 (sixteen years ago) link
self-fulfilling prophecy style doom-mongering more at the moment.
actually this really doesn't make any sense.
1. it wasn't really until this month that the press bothered with any of this beyond house prices (and even then they were spinning 'a year of stagnation') and northern rock (often treated as some kind of weird one off). Lower house prices in themselves are not 'doom-mongering' at all anyway, as they (theoretically) make it easier for first time buyers (though in practice it doesn't work out this way)
I haven't seen much 'recession coverage' anywhere other than the independent, until the last few days, and the redtops still haven't even touched it at all!
2. I just can't buy it being a self-prophecy coming true. I don't think ANY of the coverage has been doom-mongering for the simple fact that i think the facts are much worse than have been reported and it is precisely this which means every event is somehow a 'shock, when it was obvious for a long time
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:33 (sixteen years ago) link
cf. the date this thread was started
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:37 (sixteen years ago) link
Well we did tag along on that thatcher thread for a while, but yes the thread should have been started last summer really
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:39 (sixteen years ago) link
haha woops i thought this was the "will the housing bubble be worse than the dotcom bubble" thread, which was started about two years ago
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:40 (sixteen years ago) link
which, as a pre-emptive thread was probably a couple years too late even then
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:44 (sixteen years ago) link
1. Not true - I've seen this covered at length in the Guardian, Times, Telegraph, FT (pretty much every day obviously), and to a lesser extent the Mail. As far as I can remember most of these has taken the 'may tip the global economy into recession' line which seems a sensible one to take.
2. I'm not saying there isn't going to be a recession (its likely there will be, there may just be a significant slowdown). In what way are the events of the last couple of days a shock to anyone who has taken even a passing interest over the last couple of weeks? The Indy a few weeks ago hd a front of enormous stormclouds gathering over Britain with 'THE PERFECT STORM' written on it, that's pretty doom-mongering isn't it, regardless of whether or not they were right?
― Matt DC, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:45 (sixteen years ago) link
Okay lets get the basics down before we go any further:
- When politicans keep saying "the economic fundamentals are sound" are we to assume they're just bullshitting?
- What was it that enabled Britain to ride out the recession in the early 00s? Presumably the conditions are so different this time around that this couldn't happen again?
- Assuming an ILX thread four years ago could have prevented this, what could people have done to prevent this in the early 00s?
― Matt DC, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:51 (sixteen years ago) link
1. 'may tip' is hardly excessive
2. they were a shock to those people who hadn't got themselves out of shares
The Independents headlines are always like that about everything, but I don't think that perfect storm headline was doom-mongering at all. 'perfect storm' refers to a series of events that were already well underway
if the fundamentals of the uk economy are strong, as we are told, then they will not be shaken by newspaper headlines as people would take advantage of the uncertainty. but the fundamentals of the uk economy are not strong in the slightest (relying on unemployment data is downright dishonest)
I would still suggest that this is merely a difficult year, next year worse, but 2010 probably the big one. I still think that the press has glossed over how bad this is, even now
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:52 (sixteen years ago) link
but 2010 probably the big one
Oh well then, fuck it, we've got to two more years to party
― Tom D., Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:53 (sixteen years ago) link
-When politicans keep saying "the economic fundamentals are sound" are we to assume they're just bullshitting?
yes, its called positive spin. they rely on two things
1) inflation. believe that? 2) unemployment. always the last domino to fall, because jobs get cut because outlook is bad, not the other way round
because there was a huge shift of debt from industry/govt to consumers, the british public basically took on the debt, ie we spent our way out of it. or, rather more to the point, we BORROWED our way out of it, and got very heavily in debt. the proposed solution appears to borrow and spend some more
thats a much longer question, but nipping speculative bubbles in the bud is a good start, and perhaps actually taking that recession then, rather than this bigger one now. also, engaging in productive activities, rather than speculation
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:55 (sixteen years ago) link
basically, you cant put off recessions, they've been happening for 300+ years! if you put them off you store them up for later. banks lend lend lend, contraction occurs, people get caught high and dry
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:58 (sixteen years ago) link
comparatively, i think this year will be very bad, but it will get worse after that before it improves
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 16:59 (sixteen years ago) link
- given frank the success they deserved - adopted 'hen fap' meme - film threads
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 17:00 (sixteen years ago) link
- rockism - geezaesthetics
― DG, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 17:03 (sixteen years ago) link
I mean, i'd love to hear an economic fundamental other than 2% inflation (your loaf of bread, train ticket, gas bill, petrol go up by 2% this year?) and low unemployment, but that seems to be it! perhaps its our industries of finance (um), housing (er), buying with our credit cards (weelll...)?
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 17:03 (sixteen years ago) link
- realized why 1974 is crucial here
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 17:04 (sixteen years ago) link
- marcello carlin 'character'
― DG, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 17:05 (sixteen years ago) link
perhaps its our industries of finance (um), housing (er), buying with our credit cards (weelll...)?
This is the problem really, the economy of this country is over-reliant on the City, we don't make anything* we just shunt money around. This would never have happened under Becky Lucas.
*Not much good either if export markets slump as well.
― Matt DC, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 17:21 (sixteen years ago) link
So, really, that 'economic fundamentals are sound' looks exactly like bullshit
― laxalt, Tuesday, 22 January 2008 17:24 (sixteen years ago) link
GORDON BROWN: It's all the more remarkable that inflation generally is low, when you have, as everybody acknowledges, rising food prices round the world and rising oil and commodity prices.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/politics_show/7202283.stm
It's all the more remarkable that black is generally white
― laxalt, Sunday, 27 January 2008 14:16 (sixteen years ago) link
TWO in every five employers plan redundancies over the next three months, according to an influential survey to be published tomorrow. It comes as two leading business groups warn of weak business confidence and a sharp slowdown in growth.Retailers had been very downbeat about prospects for January following a poor December, with like-for-like sales rising only 0.3%. This week’s figures will come as a relief, but the BRC is likely to warn that any strength is likely to be temporary.This will be the big fear if the warning of many redundancies from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development comes true. Its winter labour market outlook, also in conjunction with KPMG, is set to show that 38% of the more than 1,500 employers surveyed plan redundancies over the next three months, with a quarter intending to let go at least 10 employees.Although it is normal for a proportion of employers to be planning redundancies, the latest figure is sharply up on the 17% number three months ago.
Retailers had been very downbeat about prospects for January following a poor December, with like-for-like sales rising only 0.3%. This week’s figures will come as a relief, but the BRC is likely to warn that any strength is likely to be temporary.
This will be the big fear if the warning of many redundancies from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development comes true. Its winter labour market outlook, also in conjunction with KPMG, is set to show that 38% of the more than 1,500 employers surveyed plan redundancies over the next three months, with a quarter intending to let go at least 10 employees.
Although it is normal for a proportion of employers to be planning redundancies, the latest figure is sharply up on the 17% number three months ago.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3340863.ece
― Tracer Hand, Monday, 11 February 2008 14:58 (sixteen years ago) link
and to think i took public service job last year 'just until something better comes along'.
― darraghmac, Monday, 11 February 2008 15:06 (sixteen years ago) link
"Everything is OK because unemployment is low" can never be a good barometer of anything. Things aren't OK because unemployment is low! Its the other way round. Unemployment is low when things are OK. More accurately - unemployment is low when future outlook suggests more people will be needed to do/make things/services. Obviously the future outlook for the economy is very poor - therefore people will be let go
― laxalt, Monday, 11 February 2008 15:57 (sixteen years ago) link
Unless of course people go on long term incapacity benefit - in which case unemployment can carry on being as low for as long as you like
― laxalt, Monday, 11 February 2008 15:58 (sixteen years ago) link
Recession claims first casualty
― Nasty, Brutish & Short, Thursday, 14 February 2008 09:15 (sixteen years ago) link
-- laxalt, Monday, February 11, 2008 3:58 PM (3 days ago) Bookmark Link
^^^ this. unemployment isn't low. people claiming JSA is comparatively low. depends how you slice and dice the figures innit.
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Thursday, 14 February 2008 09:18 (sixteen years ago) link
How nice that the Times should include a detailed definition of the term "bankruptcy" in that Statto piece for the benefit of all those thrusting Thatcherkids who haven't got time to learn English. Still I suppose many thrusting Thatcherkids will know what the word means soon enough.
― Dingbod Kesterson, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:02 (sixteen years ago) link
http://www.phill.co.uk/comedy/dadsarmy/da78.jpg
― Ned Trifle II, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:13 (sixteen years ago) link
http://theliberati.net/quaequamblog/wp-content/comical_ali.jpg
― laxalt, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:23 (sixteen years ago) link
how long till first "UNGRATEFUL IMMIGRANTS ABANDON UK: after taking advantage of our hospitality, mercenary poles and russians look to leave UK when going gets rough, proving they WERE only ever interested in our money" type stuff in the Daily Angry
― laxalt, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:30 (sixteen years ago) link
It was in the Metro already this morning.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:32 (sixteen years ago) link
bah
― laxalt, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:37 (sixteen years ago) link
(It actually was! Something about 'Poles abandon failing Britain')
― Matt DC, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:40 (sixteen years ago) link
looooooool
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:40 (sixteen years ago) link
Looks like recession here is going to move much quicker than it has been arriving in the US
― laxalt, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:44 (sixteen years ago) link
That "Poles leaving the UK story" was great, "Nowadays, the average British wage is only twice as high as the average Polish wage".
― Dom Passantino, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:45 (sixteen years ago) link
I'm still kind of amazed that thomas cook, woolworths and foxtons have staff
― laxalt, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:46 (sixteen years ago) link
It's a shame Kazakhstan isn't in the EU, we'll have to wait until World Cup qualifying for that 'Borats leave sinking ship' headline.
― Matt DC, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:46 (sixteen years ago) link
I'm still kind of amazed that thomas cook, woolworths and foxtons have shops (with staff in them)
― laxalt, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:47 (sixteen years ago) link
Foxtons have branches with fridges in them but I don't usually see much in the way of staff.
― Dingbod Kesterson, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:48 (sixteen years ago) link
Aren't Foxtons Britain's most EVIL company? Although when I spoke to another estate agency dude, they were more critical of Foxtons for having 7:30am meetings, rather than the whole "ripping off innocent customers" thing.
― Dom Passantino, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:53 (sixteen years ago) link
Meanwhile in the real world where people aren't sitting around worrying about every dip and curve in the stock market...
Europe's second biggest holiday firm now says that bookings for both winter ski trips and summer beach breaks remain strong.
I'm not saying there's not going to be a recession, or a downturn, or whatever, I'm just saying it's not like we haven't been here before and, you know, we're still here. And things aren't so bad.
― Ned Trifle II, Thursday, 14 February 2008 10:56 (sixteen years ago) link
boom
― sleeve, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:19 (eight years ago) link
on Newsnight the other night I believe they said the Sauds have approx 6-8 more months of cash reserves
That is... a considerably shorter period of time than I'd been expecting.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:20 (eight years ago) link
iirc it is thought to be five years at $50 a barrel so you could extrapolate from that. Their break-even point is higher than almost everyone else, i think.
They are raising money through different routes, though - hence the mooted Aramco IPO.
― On a Raqqa tip (ShariVari), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:23 (eight years ago) link
The number of jobs that pay a decent wage?
― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, January 13, 2016 12:06 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
this is certainly not the case globally. anyways the rich world has had low median wage growth for decades for mostly well-understood reasons, why would that suddenty cause a global crisis now?
― flopson, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:11 (eight years ago) link
Obviously that was a joke - but your post shows a lack of awareness of what might be happening to people. Talk of a 2nd derivative sounds delusional.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 14 January 2016 07:11 (eight years ago) link
Whatever that is (yes I know I can google)
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 14 January 2016 07:12 (eight years ago) link
i find it weird that the worst thing happening in the global economy right now is a negative second derivative. like, get back to me when something is actually decreasing
― flopson, Wednesday, January 13, 2016 10:31 AM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Stocks-plunge-S-P-500-is-down-10-percent-from-6757200.php
"I find it weird that the worst thing happening is markets down ten percent. get back to me when you're wearing a burlap sack."
― big WHOIS aka the nameserver (s.clover), Thursday, 14 January 2016 08:26 (eight years ago) link
i guess that's for the u.s. thread, so here's the 3mo ftse too
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/chart?chart_primary_ticker=LSE:UKX&chart_time_period=3_month&canvas_colour=000000&primary_chart_colour=CC0000&use_transparency=0&plot_colour=ffffff&cp_line_colour=1F4F82&margin_left=35&margin_bottom=20&margin_right=20&time_24hr=1&tiny_chart=1&tiny_month_view=1&logo_strength=light&y_axis_left=1&x_axis_plain=1&cp_line=1&cp_line_style=dotline&charting_freq=1_minute&co_dimension%5Ewidth=203&co_dimension%5Eheight=152&small_chart_x_label_format=1&date_label_spacing=30
― big WHOIS aka the nameserver (s.clover), Thursday, 14 January 2016 08:33 (eight years ago) link
Bump
― koogs, Friday, 24 June 2016 05:37 (seven years ago) link
http://dvdmedia.ign.com/media/reviews/image/apes_damnyou.jpg
― get on (down) / to the funky (sound) / of (snoball), Friday, 24 June 2016 05:39 (seven years ago) link
UBS is predicting £350bn wiped off the value of the FTSE today. Anything under £200bn would probably be a success.
― On a Raqqa tip (ShariVari), Friday, 24 June 2016 05:46 (seven years ago) link
but we've £351M a week we don't have to pay to brussels. we could pay that off in, er, 1000 weeks.
― koogs, Friday, 24 June 2016 06:42 (seven years ago) link
The FTSE dropped 531 points (8.something per cent) in the time it took me to walk 200 metres from Charing Cross to my office.
― On a Raqqa tip (ShariVari), Friday, 24 June 2016 07:12 (seven years ago) link
11.4%https://twitter.com/FT/status/746243856165933056/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
― get on (down) / to the funky (sound) / of (snoball), Friday, 24 June 2016 07:50 (seven years ago) link
i need to book a trip
― helpless before THRILLARY (Dr Morbius), Friday, 24 June 2016 11:05 (seven years ago) link
FAP?
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 24 June 2016 11:11 (seven years ago) link
well sure
― helpless before THRILLARY (Dr Morbius), Friday, 24 June 2016 11:27 (seven years ago) link
mi casa et su casa
― xyzzzz__, Friday, 24 June 2016 14:53 (seven years ago) link
in casa emergency break ice
― Daithi Bowsie (darraghmac), Friday, 24 June 2016 14:54 (seven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK9doTm8CH8
― helpless before THRILLARY (Dr Morbius), Friday, 24 June 2016 15:07 (seven years ago) link
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/866946/brexit-latest-updates-ons-data-wipes-490-billion-uk-wealth
― Tom's Tits Experiment (Tom D.), Monday, 16 October 2017 09:34 (six years ago) link
Can someone please have a look at this post and thoroughly debunk it (or otherwise)? Pretty please. Yours, an economics idiot
http://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/comment/2994686/#Comment_2994686
― imago, Tuesday, 31 October 2017 12:17 (six years ago) link
Just looking at Wikipedia, the China-Australia deal took a decade, not 13 months, so that guy’s nuts
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 31 October 2017 12:31 (six years ago) link
And the Walloons held firm against the EU-Canada agreement for a whole... two weeks, just looking at the google news headlines.
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 31 October 2017 12:34 (six years ago) link
The old “throwing out easily disprovable ‘facts’ in a barrage because there’s no referee so just try and prove me wrong” school
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 31 October 2017 12:37 (six years ago) link
guess the old 'we can be like singapore' line is p raving mad too
― imago, Tuesday, 31 October 2017 12:49 (six years ago) link
i dunno, a lot of Tories are into corporal punishment
― Pope Urban the Legend (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 31 October 2017 12:51 (six years ago) link
I feel that in a normal year this type of thing might be bigger news.
BBC News - Interserve rescue plan prompts share collapsehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46505688
No mention of the half a million+ they paid their CEO in April. But at least the million shares they also gave her are now worth less so that's something?
― Ned Trifle X, Monday, 10 December 2018 09:48 (five years ago) link
shit-bin-manufacturing-relocating-to-eire
― gabbnebulous (darraghmac), Sunday, 16 December 2018 18:52 (five years ago) link
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/18/we-face-a-global-economic-crisis-and-no-one-knows-what-to-do-about-it
We know that an increase in the cost of borrowing in the UK, the eurozone and the US, which is what we are now witnessing, will do nothing to bring down prices.Inflation is an affliction caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and to a lesser but important extent by China’s difficulties with Covid after its vaccine development failures, which have caused repeated lockdowns and holdups at ports. In the UK, Brexit adds a further big twist because it has damaged trade and cut the number of available workers.The justification for higher interest rates, then, must lie elsewhere, and central banks, to justify their spasm of action, argue they must go ahead to avert a wages spiral – one where pay exceeds inflation.In Britain, this argument presumes that the average worker, to prevent a fall in personal living standards, will be able to negotiate a pay deal that beats the Bank of England’s latest forecast for peak inflation later this year of 11%.When the government is expected to limit public sector pay rises to between 0% and 3% this year, that means private sector increases would have to be even higher – about 12% or 13% on average. These levels of pay rise are a fiction.
― Tracer Hand, Saturday, 18 June 2022 21:43 (one year ago) link
Oof
I literally did not believe this when it was first explained to me, but the UK effectively puts housing prices in the CPI for student loan interest, so anyone with a student loan is levered synthetic short housing as well needing to rent. It's shocking their TFR isn't 0. https://t.co/Z6tkux9mQA— Quantian (@quantian1) August 3, 2022
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, 3 August 2022 14:08 (one year ago) link
this thread is key reading imo:
The Bank of England’s going to increase interest rates today. It may be by 0.25%. It could be by 0.5%. But the question is, why are they choosing to increase the price of money when we already have an inflation problem? A thread to explain…..— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) August 4, 2022
― Tracer Hand, Friday, 5 August 2022 14:45 (one year ago) link
it’s almost as if “cooling” (sunak) vs “stimulating” the economy (truss) is too simplistic a way to think about this quite grim challenge of profiteering, war and chronic underinvestment
― Tracer Hand, Friday, 5 August 2022 16:49 (one year ago) link
― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 26 September 2022 02:14 (one year ago) link
negative growth in last 3 months blamed on... the extra bank holiday and not the fuckwittery of the truss government.
Christmas and a world cup in the next quarter though.
― koogs, Saturday, 12 November 2022 12:30 (one year ago) link
food inflation now running at 19%. not a typo.
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 2 May 2023 12:25 (one year ago) link