Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election

Message Bookmarked
Bookmark Removed
Not all messages are displayed: show all messages (249 of them)
Yes, it is really 'Amanda'.

That's what is says on her e-mails.

the bellefox, Thursday, 21 October 2004 19:24 (nineteen years ago) link

That AOL map makes pretty twinkly noises when you hover over it - that's the best I can say for it.

Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Thursday, 21 October 2004 20:10 (nineteen years ago) link

Michael, I'm glad you pointed that out 'cause I had some worries that the craziness was coming back over me.

Michael White (Hereward), Thursday, 21 October 2004 20:16 (nineteen years ago) link

And, while I take Vic's point, it's not like us liberals are clinging to loony statistical outliers to bolster our optimism for JFK (if I saw a poll saying he had an 11-point lead and was heading for 400+ in the EC I'd just ignore it) - it's looking mildly encouraging from a deep cross-section of all the mainstream numbers.

Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Thursday, 21 October 2004 20:25 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm convinced that this will end up as tight as 2000. I am greatly enjoying the possibility, brought up up-thread, that Bush could win the Pop. vote and lose the College.

Michael White (Hereward), Thursday, 21 October 2004 20:34 (nineteen years ago) link

meanwhile, ONE BILLION DOLLARS will have been spent on the Presidential Election ALONE by the time it's all said & done.

Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Thursday, 21 October 2004 20:49 (nineteen years ago) link

i have a feeling it's going to come down to cotton-pickin' FLORIDA again.

battlin' green eyeshades (Homosexual II), Thursday, 21 October 2004 21:02 (nineteen years ago) link

why have the hurricanes not wiped them out yet????

kyle (akmonday), Thursday, 21 October 2004 21:02 (nineteen years ago) link

Bugs had the right idea: "South America, take it away!"

Hunter (Hunter), Thursday, 21 October 2004 22:26 (nineteen years ago) link

Vic's map is funny.

adam. (nordicskilla), Thursday, 21 October 2004 22:29 (nineteen years ago) link

This thing should be our f*cking flag!
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/ev_projection_current_map.jpg

I'm so sick of state's rights.

Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Thursday, 21 October 2004 22:46 (nineteen years ago) link

http://us.news1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20041022/i/r3790499241.jpg

Last night, Minneapolis. Kerry is the slightly ochre dot in the middle.

suzy (suzy), Friday, 22 October 2004 08:08 (nineteen years ago) link

slightly off topic, but the nation ain't taken no prisoners

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041108&s=editors

by the way, kerry in a landslide. just watch.

lysander spooner, Friday, 22 October 2004 17:46 (nineteen years ago) link

FWIW, in my limited time in Wisconsin, it definitely seemed to be leaning Kerry.

k3rry (dymaxia), Friday, 22 October 2004 18:16 (nineteen years ago) link

http://www.jestmag.com/3-5/banana.html

Michael White (Hereward), Friday, 22 October 2004 18:35 (nineteen years ago) link

http://www.jestmag.com/3-5/images/banana-republican/ashcroft.jpg

I think that I saw this episode of "Hawaii 5-O" just the other night.

Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Friday, 22 October 2004 18:36 (nineteen years ago) link

I was at that Minneapolis Kerry rally! Way in the back.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Saturday, 23 October 2004 01:18 (nineteen years ago) link

OMG Banana Republican! That is fucking funny.

o. nate (onate), Saturday, 23 October 2004 03:22 (nineteen years ago) link

But seriously, if Kerry keeps killing the small defenseless animals then I think he has this one in the bag.

o. nate (onate), Saturday, 23 October 2004 03:22 (nineteen years ago) link

fuck it:

Electoral Vote Winner: Kerry
Popular Vote Winner: Kerry
House Control: GOP (the REAL question: how soon before the children begin drafting the impeachment papers wr2 President Kerry?)
Senate Control: tie (pending chaffee's decision wr2 jumping ship) -- which means that w/ VP Edwards, it's Democratic
Who wins Florida? Bush (Jeb = George Wallace, v. 2004)
Suprise Republican victory: Wisconsin (it's joe mccarthy's old stomping grounds, and where bill rehnquist was born)
Suprise Democratic victory: North Carolina (i'm w/ cinniblount here)
Scandal State: Ohio
Media Blunder State: Pennsylvania (it'll be safely Kerry)
Biggest Nader Factor State: either Florida or Maine
Libertarian Factor State: Arizona
Likelihood of capturing Osama?: none
Likelihood of US Attacked Factor?: this year halloween falls on a weekend/ridge will tell us al-qaeda's gonna be trick-or-treatin'

Eisbär (llamasfur), Saturday, 23 October 2004 03:57 (nineteen years ago) link

oh SHIT eisbar, you just made me realize something.

A fiver sez that Tom Ridge will announce next week that "AL QUEDA WILL BE PUTTING RAZOR BLADES IN THE CANDY FOR AMERICA'S CHILDREN: Terror threat raised to Code Orange & Black" or somesuch

Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Saturday, 23 October 2004 07:49 (nineteen years ago) link

That Nation piece is magnificent.

the bluefox, Saturday, 23 October 2004 09:18 (nineteen years ago) link

whoa:
On the other hand, if Bush is defeated, his entire presidency will acquire the aspect of an aberration, a mistake that has been corrected, and the American people will be able to say: We never accepted Bushism. We rejected the brutality, the propaganda, the misbegotten wars, the imperial arrogance. And we never, ever chose George W. Bush to be President of the United States.

Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Saturday, 23 October 2004 09:25 (nineteen years ago) link


There's a hell of a lot more to Wisconsin than Joe McCarthy. I didn't see too many people fretting about communism when I was up there, but a lot of people have lost their jobs.

k3rry (dymaxia), Saturday, 23 October 2004 11:15 (nineteen years ago) link

I wish it were true, but Kerry's not gonna win Tennessee. My highly scientific yard-sign straw poll shows Kerry up about 70-30 in Midtown Memphis and considering the demographic (pyschographic?) differences between my little corner of the state and the vast, largely white, very conservate rural and suburban areas east, that just ain't enough.

I'm holding out hope for Arkansas, though.

chris herrington (chris herrington), Saturday, 23 October 2004 20:29 (nineteen years ago) link

yup, my folks voted for him, and live in the suburbs of knoxville.
so, add another minor unscientific anecdote in support of your statement.

Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Saturday, 23 October 2004 20:58 (nineteen years ago) link

http://www.theonion.com/images/407/image_article2623_418x430.jpg


....well, AIN'T they?

Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Saturday, 23 October 2004 21:09 (nineteen years ago) link

* Wisconsin: Packers performance Sunday before election

lysander spooner, Saturday, 23 October 2004 21:42 (nineteen years ago) link

actually, apparently if the resdskins win the game before the election, the incumbents win. so the packers better win.

Sympatico (shmuel), Saturday, 23 October 2004 23:59 (nineteen years ago) link

wtf, I just saw that GOP "wolves" ad that's supposed to be so great; it's not great at all. Does the classic European wolves as evil metaphor even work anymore? Seems to me most people are going to see this ad and think "oh, forests, pretty. Wolves! Neat! Doesn't David Attenborough do the voice overs for these things any more?"

Dan I. (Dan I.), Sunday, 24 October 2004 02:09 (nineteen years ago) link

I mean Aesops' fables and shit by "European", of course. Should have been more specific.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Sunday, 24 October 2004 02:11 (nineteen years ago) link

http://www.wolfpacksfortruth.org/

looks like we now live in the age of instanteous smart-ass politically response sites...

Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Sunday, 24 October 2004 03:19 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm holding out hope for Arkansas, though.

Bush-Cheney yardsigns outnumber Kerry-Edwards 3 to 1 in metro Central Arkansas. Our state Democratic party says that they're not concentrating on yardsigns so much this year as they are on getting out the vote and databasing.

We shall see.

Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Sunday, 24 October 2004 03:47 (nineteen years ago) link

I wouldn't pay any attention to yard signs, the underdog party seems to flood the state with them just to piss off the other side. At least that's what I see in Illinois.

teeny (teeny), Sunday, 24 October 2004 12:43 (nineteen years ago) link

chris is right about tenn. i've lived in memphis, knoxville and nashville, and ain't no way kerry will win this state. where my parents live, in n. central tenn., the DEM st. representative candidate is anti gay rights, opposes abortion, is endorsed by the NRA and her TV ads show her with a shotgun! apart from midtown in memphis, shelby co. is solid reactionary republican.

i still think bush is gonna win this election. i hate to say it, but i feel like the fix is in. and i'm more than happy to be proven wrong.

eddie hurt (ddduncan), Sunday, 24 October 2004 17:54 (nineteen years ago) link

I am hoping to be on television, singing my new song, when I finish it. I will have to be quick. It starts off:

PJM: How much is that doggy in the swing state?
Ohio schoolchildren: WOOF WOOF!
PJM: The one with the waggly tail!

It is a satire on vote-rigging amongst the naturally pro-Kerry canine electorate.

PJ Miller (PJ Miller), Sunday, 24 October 2004 18:03 (nineteen years ago) link

Two polls in a row have Hawaii going Bush. WTF.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Sunday, 24 October 2004 22:06 (nineteen years ago) link

electoral vote has bush in front for the first time in a while... http://www.electoral-vote.com/

zappi (joni), Sunday, 24 October 2004 23:19 (nineteen years ago) link

the media is doing bush a favor by continuing to say this is going to be close, when it probably won't be, that will make certain that bush supporters don't stay home. danny devito's doing his part by intimidating republican voters in florida. kerry plans on declaring victory no matter what, even if Bush wins 40 states.

keith m (keithmcl), Sunday, 24 October 2004 23:34 (nineteen years ago) link

Zappi, that site uses the most recent poll, and right now for IA and WI it's Strategic Vision, a GOP polling firm that always puts Bush ahead in states that are even remotely close.

And I got the Hawaii thing explained for me too.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Monday, 25 October 2004 00:34 (nineteen years ago) link

Oh shit, um, I mean this is the correct link for that.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Monday, 25 October 2004 00:35 (nineteen years ago) link

This site doesn't use either Strategic Vision (because they're blatantly biased) or Zogby (because his internet polling method is somewhat fishy), to their credit.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Monday, 25 October 2004 00:37 (nineteen years ago) link

Right now if you do an average of the last two weeks from measurement date range midpoint, and exclude Zogby and Strat Vision here are the numbers:

FL: Kerry O.36%
OH: Kerry 1.8%
WI: Bush 0.666% (haha)
NM: Bush 1.5%
IA: Bush 2.5%
MN: Kerry 1.25%

So you see, if, as most major media outlets are still doing, you say something like "It's a tie but Bush appears to have the edge" based on national numbers or whatever, you're chock full of shit.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Monday, 25 October 2004 00:49 (nineteen years ago) link

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v48/w1nt3rmut3/SaintClinton.jpg

Dan I. (Dan I.), Tuesday, 26 October 2004 00:42 (nineteen years ago) link

Averages over the last week including Strat Vision and Zogby (data from race2004.net):

FL: Bush 1.38
OH: Bush 0.73
WI: Bush 1.22
NM: Kerry 1.98
IA: Bush 1.72
MN: Kerry 2.9 (heavily influenced by unlikely zogby numbers)
MN w/o Zogby: Bush 0.75

So the most Kerry would have to make up (in IA) is 1.72%, which is not too shabby.

Fuck I wish the election would just be over so I could concentrate on school work instead of compulsively doing shit like this.

Dan I. (Dan I.), Tuesday, 26 October 2004 03:04 (nineteen years ago) link

As far as I can tell, Blackwell and the GOP have as good as stolen Ohio already.

Dan I., Tuesday, 26 October 2004 22:06 (nineteen years ago) link

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

(apologies if this has already been posted)

Curt1s St3ph3ns, Tuesday, 26 October 2004 22:58 (nineteen years ago) link

All those "barelies" make me nervous

Curt1s St3ph3ns, Tuesday, 26 October 2004 22:59 (nineteen years ago) link

It's gonna be as bad as 2000 again, except this time we'll have an incumbent who doesn't know if he's a lame duck or not.

(There's a lot that he doesn't know, but I'm trying to stay on-topic here.)

Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Tuesday, 26 October 2004 23:21 (nineteen years ago) link


You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.