Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election

I'm so sick of state's rights.

Last night, Minneapolis. Kerry is the slightly ochre dot in the middle.

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041108&s=editors

by the way, kerry in a landslide. just watch.

I think that I saw this episode of "Hawaii 5-O" just the other night.

Electoral Vote Winner: Kerry
Popular Vote Winner: Kerry
House Control: GOP (the REAL question: how soon before the children begin drafting the impeachment papers wr2 President Kerry?)
Senate Control: tie (pending chaffee's decision wr2 jumping ship) -- which means that w/ VP Edwards, it's Democratic
Who wins Florida? Bush (Jeb = George Wallace, v. 2004)
Suprise Republican victory: Wisconsin (it's joe mccarthy's old stomping grounds, and where bill rehnquist was born)
Suprise Democratic victory: North Carolina (i'm w/ cinniblount here)
Scandal State: Ohio
Media Blunder State: Pennsylvania (it'll be safely Kerry)
Biggest Nader Factor State: either Florida or Maine
Libertarian Factor State: Arizona
Likelihood of capturing Osama?: none
Likelihood of US Attacked Factor?: this year halloween falls on a weekend/ridge will tell us al-qaeda's gonna be trick-or-treatin'

A fiver sez that Tom Ridge will announce next week that "AL QUEDA WILL BE PUTTING RAZOR BLADES IN THE CANDY FOR AMERICA'S CHILDREN: Terror threat raised to Code Orange & Black" or somesuch

On the other hand, if Bush is defeated, his entire presidency will acquire the aspect of an aberration, a mistake that has been corrected, and the American people will be able to say: We never accepted Bushism. We rejected the brutality, the propaganda, the misbegotten wars, the imperial arrogance. And we never, ever chose George W. Bush to be President of the United States.

I'm holding out hope for Arkansas, though.

....well, AIN'T they?

looks like we now live in the age of instanteous smart-ass politically response sites...

Bush-Cheney yardsigns outnumber Kerry-Edwards 3 to 1 in metro Central Arkansas. Our state Democratic party says that they're not concentrating on yardsigns so much this year as they are on getting out the vote and databasing.

We shall see.

i still think bush is gonna win this election. i hate to say it, but i feel like the fix is in. and i'm more than happy to be proven wrong.

PJM: How much is that doggy in the swing state?
Ohio schoolchildren: WOOF WOOF!
PJM: The one with the waggly tail!

It is a satire on vote-rigging amongst the naturally pro-Kerry canine electorate.

Trumph of the Will 2004!

And I got the Hawaii thing explained for me too.

FL: Kerry O.36%
OH: Kerry 1.8%
WI: Bush 0.666% (haha)
NM: Bush 1.5%
IA: Bush 2.5%
MN: Kerry 1.25%

So you see, if, as most major media outlets are still doing, you say something like "It's a tie but Bush appears to have the edge" based on national numbers or whatever, you're chock full of shit.

FL: Bush 1.38
OH: Bush 0.73
WI: Bush 1.22
NM: Kerry 1.98
IA: Bush 1.72
MN: Kerry 2.9 (heavily influenced by unlikely zogby numbers)
MN w/o Zogby: Bush 0.75

So the most Kerry would have to make up (in IA) is 1.72%, which is not too shabby.

Fuck I wish the election would just be over so I could concentrate on school work instead of compulsively doing shit like this.

(apologies if this has already been posted)

(There's a lot that he doesn't know, but I'm trying to stay on-topic here.)

I expect some voter intimidation/challenging and some outright fraud to tip the scales in Bush's favour but I also suspect the strength of Kerry support is being consistently underestimated (see 2000 and Gore trailing by 3-6pts in the tracking polls during the final week). How the Bin Laden tape will play to the waverers is anybody's guess.

I'm still saying Kerry by ten.

So, given that there are more wildcards this time around than last time, I think the chances are better than ever that the poll results will be off by the stated "margin of error". Personally, I expect the swing will go to Kerry. Bush is sounding increasingly shrill and nervous on the stump. The candidates have private polls that they believe in more than the public polls we read.

The polls suggest that Kerry will not win in NV, CO, WV, AR, MO, VA or AZ, but I could see him winning any or all of these on the basis of the ground game and the underpolled/underweighted (young/new voters, hispanics, native americans, cellphone-users and absentee voters). I think similar phenomena keep IA and NM in Kerry's column.