Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election

looks like we now live in the age of instanteous smart-ass politically response sites...

Bush-Cheney yardsigns outnumber Kerry-Edwards 3 to 1 in metro Central Arkansas. Our state Democratic party says that they're not concentrating on yardsigns so much this year as they are on getting out the vote and databasing.

We shall see.

i still think bush is gonna win this election. i hate to say it, but i feel like the fix is in. and i'm more than happy to be proven wrong.

PJM: How much is that doggy in the swing state?
Ohio schoolchildren: WOOF WOOF!
PJM: The one with the waggly tail!

It is a satire on vote-rigging amongst the naturally pro-Kerry canine electorate.

Trumph of the Will 2004!

And I got the Hawaii thing explained for me too.

FL: Kerry O.36%
OH: Kerry 1.8%
WI: Bush 0.666% (haha)
NM: Bush 1.5%
IA: Bush 2.5%
MN: Kerry 1.25%

So you see, if, as most major media outlets are still doing, you say something like "It's a tie but Bush appears to have the edge" based on national numbers or whatever, you're chock full of shit.

FL: Bush 1.38
OH: Bush 0.73
WI: Bush 1.22
NM: Kerry 1.98
IA: Bush 1.72
MN: Kerry 2.9 (heavily influenced by unlikely zogby numbers)
MN w/o Zogby: Bush 0.75

So the most Kerry would have to make up (in IA) is 1.72%, which is not too shabby.

Fuck I wish the election would just be over so I could concentrate on school work instead of compulsively doing shit like this.

(apologies if this has already been posted)

(There's a lot that he doesn't know, but I'm trying to stay on-topic here.)

I expect some voter intimidation/challenging and some outright fraud to tip the scales in Bush's favour but I also suspect the strength of Kerry support is being consistently underestimated (see 2000 and Gore trailing by 3-6pts in the tracking polls during the final week). How the Bin Laden tape will play to the waverers is anybody's guess.

I'm still saying Kerry by ten.

So, given that there are more wildcards this time around than last time, I think the chances are better than ever that the poll results will be off by the stated "margin of error". Personally, I expect the swing will go to Kerry. Bush is sounding increasingly shrill and nervous on the stump. The candidates have private polls that they believe in more than the public polls we read.

The polls suggest that Kerry will not win in NV, CO, WV, AR, MO, VA or AZ, but I could see him winning any or all of these on the basis of the ground game and the underpolled/underweighted (young/new voters, hispanics, native americans, cellphone-users and absentee voters). I think similar phenomena keep IA and NM in Kerry's column.

1. Nader factor - there's less of him.
2. Voter apathy - there's less of it.
3. Electoral fraud - there won't be any less of it but we're watching like hawks.
4. Bush lead in the final week - there's hardly any of it.

Oh, and the Redskins lost at some sport I don't fully understand.

Kerry 303
Bush 235?

Green Bay 28, Washington 14

let's hear for superstitions!

Well let's hope they actually vote!

Kerry, they reckon, can afford to lose any of the following combinations of states: FL/IA/NM, FL/WI/NH, OH/WI/IA/NH, OH/PA, WI/MN/PA. If it's FL/OH though, it's no go.

to make tomorrow even more interesting I am making the following markets up to US-$ 20 a point

Kerry 275 - 280
Bush 260 - 265

IF YOU CARE TO BET CHECK IN WITH ME FIRST AS MARKETS MIGHT SHIFT

Last night on the news: Kerry camp upbeat; Dubay camp 'outwardly confident - yet inwardly worried'. I liked that too.