should the West invade and/or bomb the fuck out of Iran?

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>I wonder will the world just have to learn to live with
>Iranian nuclear weapons

The problem being, the Iranian leadership's worldview is even MORE apocalyptic then Bush's. They're like, the Pat Robertsons of Islam.

Squirrel_Police (Squirrel_Police), Thursday, 21 September 2006 20:55 (seventeen years ago) link

It's like, everyone thinks "don't worry, the neocons do crazy things, but they can't get TOO crazy, the american people won't allow it" well, maybe in YOUR state...try living in Idaho...

Squirrel_Police (Squirrel_Police), Thursday, 21 September 2006 20:57 (seventeen years ago) link

Yeah, sorry, but I think a draft is possible. Maybe not immediately likely, but there is some x event that would be enough to galvanize people in support of a draft. As for money, we can just go into more debt, right? Not to mention all the oil profit that will be reaped! (sure, didn't work last time, but THIS time it's for sure!)

A-ron Hubbard (Hurting), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:18 (seventeen years ago) link

pentagon not so interested in a draft.

geoff (gcannon), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:19 (seventeen years ago) link

Gareth and I were discussing Iran earlier. Iran probably has the best model there is for a middle eastern islamic democracy. I don't think it has to be our friend, not everyone wants or needs to be a friend of the US or the western world for there to be peace. Iran has got to be better for the world and its people than saudi arabia, ba'athist iraq or syria, taliban afghanistan or even post-ba'athist iraq.

Iran and the Us are much alike. big democracies, both with faults in their democratic process. Both with a history of state sponsorship of terror (Iran with hezbollah and in Iraq now, the US all over south america in the past, in afghanistan in the 80s the hot wars could be called terror as well). Both have a strong religious leaning, both are naturally conservative with a very dynamic youth culture.

Think about it. No matter how you can point to how the Iranians gerrymandered their last election, a hell of a lot of people voted for Amedinhejad. They made a choice.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:38 (seventeen years ago) link

been reading the lastest atlantic monthly which has a very great, detailed article about what shit will hit the fan when north korea inevitably collapses, that'd be fun if it happens right after we invade iran.*

*tho i don't think the latter is likely to happen.

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:41 (seventeen years ago) link

I dunno if Iran really qualifies as a democracy with unelected theocrats holding the ultimate authority...? altho the parallels Ed draws are certainly interesting.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:47 (seventeen years ago) link

Imperfect democracy. the people of Iran certainly have more say in what goes on that the people of Kuwait, Syria or Saudi Arabia, maybe even more so that Egypt.

Ed (dali), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:48 (seventeen years ago) link

The appointed supreme court in the US wields a lot o power as well, (yes I realise that supreme court appointments are scrutinised and that in Iran the theocrats appoint each other)

Ed (dali), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:50 (seventeen years ago) link

True dat. Egypt's "democracy" is kind of a joke. Saudi Arabia's "system" of gov't is inexcusable.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:52 (seventeen years ago) link

Huge amounts of interest here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/iran/

Ed (dali), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:53 (seventeen years ago) link

The appointed supreme court in the US wields a lot o power as well, (yes I realise that supreme court appointments are scrutinised and that in Iran the theocrats appoint each other)

-- Ed (dal...), September 21st, 2006.

Sure, and I guess the Constitution isn't that different from the Koran either.

We're stretching things a little though, aren't we?

A-ron Hubbard (Hurting), Thursday, 21 September 2006 21:58 (seventeen years ago) link

>Iran probably has the best model there is for a middle
>eastern islamic democracy.

If a certain elite holds the ultimate veto power on anything and everything, how could their system be described as democracy? it would be oligrachy.

Squirrel_Police (Squirrel_Police), Friday, 22 September 2006 02:34 (seventeen years ago) link

and i suspect that the oligarchs aren't just using religion as a tool to control the populace...i think they really ARE wacky.

Squirrel_Police (Squirrel_Police), Friday, 22 September 2006 02:35 (seventeen years ago) link

Oligarchy or no, its the most democratic middle eastern country.

Ed (dali), Friday, 22 September 2006 04:23 (seventeen years ago) link

israel?

Amateur(ist) (Amateur(ist)), Friday, 22 September 2006 06:46 (seventeen years ago) link

i know, i know.

Amateur(ist) (Amateur(ist)), Friday, 22 September 2006 06:46 (seventeen years ago) link

The Nation says this is almost a done deal. I'm getting very afraid.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061009/lindorff

schwantz (schwantz), Friday, 22 September 2006 17:00 (seventeen years ago) link

Yeah, but given that his popularity is most directly correlated to the cost of oil, why would Bush mess up the midterms with this just right now?

M. White (Miguelito), Friday, 22 September 2006 17:08 (seventeen years ago) link

Christ, we're fucked. Don't have kids.

Venga (Venga), Friday, 22 September 2006 18:21 (seventeen years ago) link

Let's see. The Nation's article consists of two elements:

1. America sending warships to the Middle East (shocking)
2. Partisan hacks denouncing Bush

I'm not convinced.

Super Cub (Debito), Friday, 22 September 2006 18:46 (seventeen years ago) link

Maybe "hack" is too strong. How about just "partisans"

Super Cub (Debito), Friday, 22 September 2006 18:51 (seventeen years ago) link

http://www.dickdestiny.com/bighello.JPG

Urnst Kouch (Urnst Kouch), Friday, 22 September 2006 19:00 (seventeen years ago) link

From today's NYT:

Strained, Army Looks to Guard for More Relief

By THOM SHANKER and MICHAEL R. GORDON
WASHINGTON, Sept. 21 — Strains on the Army from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have become so severe that Army officials say they may be forced to make greater use of the National Guard to provide enough troops for overseas deployments.

Super Cub (Debito), Friday, 22 September 2006 19:07 (seventeen years ago) link

i actually completely fail to understand why the bush administration would even contemplate doing this or what they actually think is the immediate threat from iran. they're well aware of the unstoppable carnage such an action would cause, right?

is it too much to ask generals not to obey their orders? is that a remote possibility?

Amateur(ist) (Amateur(ist)), Friday, 22 September 2006 20:32 (seventeen years ago) link

i actually completely fail to understand why the bush administration would even contemplate doing this or what they actually think is the immediate threat from iran. they're well aware of the unstoppable carnage such an action would cause, right?

is it too much to ask generals not to obey their orders? is that a remote possibility?

i have long felt as though, through its actions, the bush administration have effectively been waging a kind of proxy war against americans, because they've made us all considerably *less* safe for generations. if they do anything to iran you can be sure this will get much worse.

Amateur(ist) (Amateur(ist)), Friday, 22 September 2006 20:33 (seventeen years ago) link

haha - an American military coup would be... interesting.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 22 September 2006 20:34 (seventeen years ago) link

I don't see where the troops to invade iran would come from right now. The US is stretched, the UK is over-stretched. Amedinhejad can just get on and do whatever he likes right now. All a bombing campaign will do is piss off ordinary iranians and convince a fair few of them to go and be reinforcements in Iraq.

Ed (dali), Friday, 22 September 2006 21:00 (seventeen years ago) link

Send in the Swiss.

mr. brojangles (sanskrit), Friday, 22 September 2006 21:05 (seventeen years ago) link

we've had this thread like 5 times now, right?

hstencil (hstencil), Friday, 22 September 2006 21:06 (seventeen years ago) link

Every time it comes round, invading iran looks less and less likely

Ed (dali), Friday, 22 September 2006 21:08 (seventeen years ago) link

We may not have enough troops to occupy Iran indefinitely, but how about a raid? More than enough for that.

Squirrel_Police (Squirrel_Police), Friday, 22 September 2006 21:57 (seventeen years ago) link

you are out of your fucking gourd

geoff (gcannon), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:00 (seventeen years ago) link

Ah yes, Iranian raids. Smash successes, those.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:04 (seventeen years ago) link

It would be counter-productive, SP. Considering how lousy our intel was in Iraq, imagine how lousy it's likely to be in larger and topographically more complicated Iran. We'd need enough troops and time to scour the place for any hidden sites. A raid would earn us more ill-will and casualties and would be very, very far from predictably ridding Iran of the capacity to build nukes.

M. White (Miguelito), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:05 (seventeen years ago) link

enough troops for a panty raid maybe.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:08 (seventeen years ago) link

sqrl plse = dnld rmsfld

geoff (gcannon), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:19 (seventeen years ago) link

the "hey fellas why not" school of military engagement

geoff (gcannon), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:20 (seventeen years ago) link

M. White, I was not advocating an invasion, never have, I was just saying that the "just not enough troops" meme is total BS. Absolutely ridiculous to think that our military couldn't carve through the Iranians like a hot knife through butter.

Squirrel_Police (Squirrel_Police), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:32 (seventeen years ago) link

ROFLZx10000

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:47 (seventeen years ago) link

I mean Iran hasn't been successfully invaded since, what, the 13th century(?) for a reason. well, many reasons actually. It was never colonized, you know.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:53 (seventeen years ago) link

But wait, if we invaded, the Iranian people would greet us as liberators, right? So we really don't need that many troops.

Super Cub (Debito), Friday, 22 September 2006 22:55 (seventeen years ago) link

No more than 12.

A-ron Hubbard (Hurting), Friday, 22 September 2006 23:51 (seventeen years ago) link

carve through the Iranians like a hot knife through butter.

wow.

Amateur(ist) (Amateur(ist)), Saturday, 23 September 2006 00:06 (seventeen years ago) link

judging from how much dude posts lately id bet if theres one thing squirrel police knows its butter

and what (ooo), Saturday, 23 September 2006 00:12 (seventeen years ago) link

Large mountainous country with a well disciplined and not badly equipped army vs a smaller better equipped and battle hardened, but also battle weary, army. Sounds like a hot knife through butter to me.

Ed (dali), Saturday, 23 September 2006 05:43 (seventeen years ago) link

Is the Iranian army that well disciplined? I bet the Revolutionary Guards are like the death commandos in Dune - great for sending to run across minefields, maybe not so good against an army that could invade Iraq and topple its regime taking, what, a hundred dead guys? I know the terrain is substantially less favourable in Iran, but I reckon Squirrel Police might be right in thinking that the invasion phase of a war against Iran could go reasonably well.

SP is maybe learning a lesson from the Iraq was that is not fully transferrable. In Iraq, the invasion went well, but attempts to build a new friendly Iraq have been a disaster, but the Iraqi state was undoubtedly destroyed by the invasion. So, maybe when he talks of a "raid", SP means a big invasion, aimed at sending a panzer legion to Teheran, to decapitate the Iranian regime, and then to pull the fuck out, leaving the country to collapse into chaos.

I don't think the Iranian regime would be as easy to decapitate as that of Iran - it is more broadly based, the ideological underpinnings behind it touch more nerves, and by virtue of its being more politically open it is less likely to be the case that exterminating Khamenei and Ahmadinejad would see Iran tip into chaos. So I reckon that the kind of smash and grab raid that I suggest SP is advocating would just make the Iranians very pissed off and make them more inclined to develop nuclear weapons as a way of deterring any future US adventurism.

DV (dirtyvicar), Sunday, 24 September 2006 18:08 (seventeen years ago) link

BTW, I know the BBC radio stuff has already been linked to, but the BBC news site is also running some interesting text articles on Iran right now: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/middle_east/2006/inside_iran/default.stm

DV (dirtyvicar), Sunday, 24 September 2006 18:09 (seventeen years ago) link

wonkette:
Here’s a tale that makes Mark Foley seem absolutely harmless in comparison: U.S. warships are headed for the coast of Iran, just in time for a late-October war. Maybe even a nuclear war. A nuclear war started by the White House. You know, to make sure Iran doesn’t develop dangerous nuclear weapons that could be brazenly used against some country or another.

Today, the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group leaves port in Norfolk for the Persian Gulf. The group includes the USS Anzio, the guided-missile destroyers USS Ramage and USS Mason and the attack sub USS Newport News. Time and The Nation are among the mainstream mags saying this is the beginning of the war.

Maria :D (Maria D.), Tuesday, 3 October 2006 17:39 (seventeen years ago) link

that's not enough ships for a blockade. On the one hand I can't imagine a nuke strike against Iran happening, the mind boggles at the stupidity and lack of resources necessary to even attempt it. On the other hand if it is actually in the cards, really there's nothing I can do about it except shake my head in abject horror (ie, the same thing I've done for the last 6 years)

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, 3 October 2006 17:53 (seventeen years ago) link


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