Trumph of the Will 2004!
― sometimes i like to pretend i am very small and warm (ex machina), Sunday, 24 October 2004 18:23 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dan I. (Dan I.), Sunday, 24 October 2004 22:06 (nineteen years ago) link
― zappi (joni), Sunday, 24 October 2004 23:19 (nineteen years ago) link
― keith m (keithmcl), Sunday, 24 October 2004 23:34 (nineteen years ago) link
And I got the Hawaii thing explained for me too.
― Dan I. (Dan I.), Monday, 25 October 2004 00:34 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dan I. (Dan I.), Monday, 25 October 2004 00:35 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dan I. (Dan I.), Monday, 25 October 2004 00:37 (nineteen years ago) link
FL: Kerry O.36%OH: Kerry 1.8%WI: Bush 0.666% (haha)NM: Bush 1.5%IA: Bush 2.5%MN: Kerry 1.25%
So you see, if, as most major media outlets are still doing, you say something like "It's a tie but Bush appears to have the edge" based on national numbers or whatever, you're chock full of shit.
― Dan I. (Dan I.), Monday, 25 October 2004 00:49 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dan I. (Dan I.), Tuesday, 26 October 2004 00:42 (nineteen years ago) link
FL: Bush 1.38OH: Bush 0.73WI: Bush 1.22NM: Kerry 1.98IA: Bush 1.72MN: Kerry 2.9 (heavily influenced by unlikely zogby numbers)MN w/o Zogby: Bush 0.75
So the most Kerry would have to make up (in IA) is 1.72%, which is not too shabby.
Fuck I wish the election would just be over so I could concentrate on school work instead of compulsively doing shit like this.
― Dan I. (Dan I.), Tuesday, 26 October 2004 03:04 (nineteen years ago) link
― Dan I., Tuesday, 26 October 2004 22:06 (nineteen years ago) link
(apologies if this has already been posted)
― Curt1s St3ph3ns, Tuesday, 26 October 2004 22:58 (nineteen years ago) link
― Curt1s St3ph3ns, Tuesday, 26 October 2004 22:59 (nineteen years ago) link
(There's a lot that he doesn't know, but I'm trying to stay on-topic here.)
― Pleasant Plains (Pleasant Plains), Tuesday, 26 October 2004 23:21 (nineteen years ago) link
― Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Wednesday, 27 October 2004 02:20 (nineteen years ago) link
― the bluefox, Saturday, 30 October 2004 10:19 (nineteen years ago) link
I expect some voter intimidation/challenging and some outright fraud to tip the scales in Bush's favour but I also suspect the strength of Kerry support is being consistently underestimated (see 2000 and Gore trailing by 3-6pts in the tracking polls during the final week). How the Bin Laden tape will play to the waverers is anybody's guess.
I'm still saying Kerry by ten.
― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Saturday, 30 October 2004 12:23 (nineteen years ago) link
So, given that there are more wildcards this time around than last time, I think the chances are better than ever that the poll results will be off by the stated "margin of error". Personally, I expect the swing will go to Kerry. Bush is sounding increasingly shrill and nervous on the stump. The candidates have private polls that they believe in more than the public polls we read.
― Aimless (Aimless), Saturday, 30 October 2004 15:57 (nineteen years ago) link
― k3rry (dymaxia), Saturday, 30 October 2004 22:14 (nineteen years ago) link
― m. (mitchlnw), Sunday, 31 October 2004 20:47 (nineteen years ago) link
The polls suggest that Kerry will not win in NV, CO, WV, AR, MO, VA or AZ, but I could see him winning any or all of these on the basis of the ground game and the underpolled/underweighted (young/new voters, hispanics, native americans, cellphone-users and absentee voters). I think similar phenomena keep IA and NM in Kerry's column.
― gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 31 October 2004 21:13 (nineteen years ago) link
― gabbneb (gabbneb), Sunday, 31 October 2004 21:17 (nineteen years ago) link
1. Nader factor - there's less of him.2. Voter apathy - there's less of it.3. Electoral fraud - there won't be any less of it but we're watching like hawks.4. Bush lead in the final week - there's hardly any of it.
Oh, and the Redskins lost at some sport I don't fully understand.
― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Sunday, 31 October 2004 22:47 (nineteen years ago) link
― Baked Bean Teeth (Baked Bean Teeth), Monday, 1 November 2004 03:33 (nineteen years ago) link
― gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 1 November 2004 03:45 (nineteen years ago) link
Kerry 303Bush 235?
― Baked Bean Teeth (Baked Bean Teeth), Monday, 1 November 2004 03:55 (nineteen years ago) link
― gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 1 November 2004 03:58 (nineteen years ago) link
― gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 1 November 2004 04:01 (nineteen years ago) link
Green Bay 28, Washington 14
let's hear for superstitions!
― Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Monday, 1 November 2004 04:25 (nineteen years ago) link
Well let's hope they actually vote!
― Casuistry (Chris P), Monday, 1 November 2004 05:09 (nineteen years ago) link
― LE CHUCK!™ (ex machina), Monday, 1 November 2004 07:13 (nineteen years ago) link
― Sir Kingfish Beavis D'Azzmonch (Kingfish), Monday, 1 November 2004 07:14 (nineteen years ago) link
― PJ Miller (PJ Miller), Monday, 1 November 2004 09:22 (nineteen years ago) link
Kerry, they reckon, can afford to lose any of the following combinations of states: FL/IA/NM, FL/WI/NH, OH/WI/IA/NH, OH/PA, WI/MN/PA. If it's FL/OH though, it's no go.
― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Monday, 1 November 2004 10:08 (nineteen years ago) link
to make tomorrow even more interesting I am making the following markets up to US-$ 20 a point Kerry 275 - 280Bush 260 - 265 IF YOU CARE TO BET CHECK IN WITH ME FIRST AS MARKETS MIGHT SHIFT
― o. nate (onate), Monday, 1 November 2004 15:18 (nineteen years ago) link
― o. nate (onate), Monday, 1 November 2004 15:20 (nineteen years ago) link
Last night on the news: Kerry camp upbeat; Dubay camp 'outwardly confident - yet inwardly worried'. I liked that too.
― the bluefox, Monday, 1 November 2004 16:14 (nineteen years ago) link
― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Monday, 1 November 2004 16:53 (nineteen years ago) link
― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Monday, 1 November 2004 19:59 (nineteen years ago) link
― still bevens (bscrubbins), Monday, 1 November 2004 20:04 (nineteen years ago) link
― bnw (bnw), Monday, 1 November 2004 20:21 (nineteen years ago) link
― kyle (akmonday), Monday, 1 November 2004 20:25 (nineteen years ago) link
Kerry - 276Bush - 262
(I also sold Bush at 266 for $4 a point, so I have a monetary stake in this as well.)
― o. nate (onate), Monday, 1 November 2004 21:09 (nineteen years ago) link
Kerry is doing better than Gore had done in the polls of 2000, and if he can anything like replicate Gore's surge in getting the vote out, he should at least manage to win the popular vote, however narrowly (if Bush's organisation was at the 2000 level, one would say this would be a very easy call to make...).
And the key thing in the big picture seems to be:
Both candidates are doing better in certain states than the 2000 Gore/Bush standings. But Bush's improved leads are likely to be in the more Republican southern states, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and the more conservative Western states (Idaho etc.), with the odd surprise improvement: New Jersey, Hawaii, Pennsylvannia (which will all go Kerry anyway no doubt). Kerry is clearly doing much better in Ohio than Gore, and with the trend in polls going his direction, I think we'll see Michigan and Minnesota become reasonably comfortable victories. He is going to do much better in New England than Gore; increasing the victories in Maine and Vermont and taking New Hampshire in all probability... and on the West Coast, Oregon seems to be a much more comfortable win than in 2000. There'll also be some closer margins (though likely Bush wins) in Colorado and Arizona...
The two I'm not sure about are New Mexico and Florida (and I would still not call Ohio yet for Kerry, as tricks are afoot, and the polls aren't quite showing him with consistent 1-3 point wins, are they?)... why would Bush be doing better in NM than in 2000? Kerry seemed to be walking this state earlier in the campaign.
And does anyone remember what the polling numbers were like in Florida in 2000 days before the election itself?
― Tom May (Tom May), Monday, 1 November 2004 21:43 (nineteen years ago) link
― the bluefox, Tuesday, 2 November 2004 15:05 (nineteen years ago) link
― Michael Jones (MichaelJ), Tuesday, 2 November 2004 15:11 (nineteen years ago) link
― Jonathan Z. (Joanthan Z.), Tuesday, 2 November 2004 15:13 (nineteen years ago) link
― s1ocki (slutsky), Tuesday, 2 November 2004 16:18 (nineteen years ago) link
― gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 2 November 2004 16:27 (nineteen years ago) link
In the event of a tie, the Dems best bet is to "shed" votes in the house to a third canidate.
― BrianB (BrianB), Tuesday, 2 November 2004 16:45 (nineteen years ago) link